monthly february 2012

8/2/2019 Monthly February 2012

1/23


2/23


3/23

Copper Monthly Update - February 2012

Price forecasts & quarterly supply/demand balance - kt

Refined Refined Metal Stocks Cash PriceProduction Consumption Balance Days of Cons $/tonne c/lb

2010 Q1 4617 4305 312 68 7243 329Q2 4735 5012 -278 63 7011 318Q3 4736 4907 -171 59 7242 328Q4 4891 5040 -149 57 8633 392

Total/Avg 18979 19264 -286 57 7536 342

2011 Q1 4741 4473 268 60 9645 437Q2 4897 5263 -367 53 9137 414Q3 4943 5129 -186 50 8982 407Q4 5143 4938 205 54 7488 340

Total/Avg 19724 19803 -80 54 8810 400

2012 Q1 4900 4536 364 58 8300 376Q2 5104 5399 -296 53 8800 399Q3 5124 5319 -194 50 8900 404

Q4 5288 5262 26 50 8800 399Total/Avg 20416 20516 -100 50 8700 395

2013 Q1 5294 4729 565 58 8100 367Q2 5515 5645 -130 55 8300 376Q3 5537 5503 34 56 8300 376Q4 5713 5495 219 60 7900 358

Total/Avg 22058 21371 687 60 8150 370

Source: Brook Hunt A Wood Mackenzie Company 2012


4/23

2009 2010 2011 2011Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec Jan

USA: ProductionCu Wire Rod 1071 1262 1253 325 328 311 289 105 95 89 -Y-Y % change -27.9 9.7 -0.7 0.5 2.7 -6.3 0.5 -0.3 2.4 -0.6 -

USA: ShipmentsCu and Cu Alloy Prods 852 938 - 247 245 224 - - - - -Y-Y % change -27.4 10.1 - 5.2 -1.1 -7.5 - - - - -

Japan: ShipmentsCu Wire and Cable 649 681 681 169 163 173 176 60 60 58 56Y-Y % change -20.5 5.0 -0.1 1.1 0.0 -3.0 1.7 2.6 -0.4 2.9 -1.2

Japan: ProductionCu and Cu Alloy Prods 654 867 825 209 220 203 192 66 66 61 825Y-Y % change -30.7 32.5 -4.9 -1.4 -1.4 -5.5 -11.3 -11.5 -10.5 -12.0 0.0

China: ProductionCu and Cu Alloy Prods 8884 10093 10281 2028 2770 2790 2817 914 981 921 -Y-Y % change 18.7 13.6 1.9 -0.1 2.1 8.5 2.3 9.2 4.3 -5.5 -

Italy: Production*Cu and Cu Alloy Prods 937 1112 1058 293 292 230 243 - - - -Y-Y % change -20.6 18.6 -4.8 1.0 -3.1 -5.8 -12.1 - - - -


5/23

Ytd

1253-0.7

716-1.2

56-1.2

825-4.9

102811.9

1058-8.8


6/23


Global quarterly refined copper consumption - kt

2010 2011 2012Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Yr Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

W Europe 3075 732 800 734 691 2958 709 760 732 734France 234 57 59 41 48 205 53 56 40 50Germany 1302 297 349 336 310 1291 292 337 335 333Italy 604 165 165 128 122 580 156 144 131 139Spain 290 74 77 65 65 281 71 76 64 67UK 50 12 10 10 13 45 11 10 10 12Other 596 128 139 154 134 556 125 136 152 132

N America 1897 478 516 504 458 1957 481 511 500 464USA 1760 450 471 468 424 1813 452 466 463 427Canada 137 28 45 37 35 144 30 44 37 37

Japan 1060 238 274 259 243 1014 241 277 265 256

Asia 3793 873 960 919 893 3645 869 965 948 926India 580 160 153 163 117 594 160 156 171 127S Korea 916 195 219 209 182 804 193 217 211 183Taiwan 533 110 118 119 119 465 109 116 119 119Other (WW) 1764 408 470 428 476 1782 408 475 448 497

L America 903 230 237 194 227 887 235 241 198 234Mexico 285 81 89 69 57 296 82 89 70 60Other 618 149 148 125 170 592 153 152 127 174

Other WW 427 105 107 112 103 428 111 114 114 108

W World 11155 2656 2895 2722 2616 10889 2646 2867 2756 2721

E Bloc 8109 1821 2373 2412 2327 8934 1899 2541 2572 2549China 7204 1533 2081 2116 2050 7780 1610 2247 2275 2270Other E Bloc 905 288 292 295 278 1154 290 294 297 279

Global Total 19264 4478 5268 5134 4943 19823 4545 5409 5328 5270



7/23

Yr

2934199

1297571279

43546

19561808148

1039

3708614804463

1827

907300606

447

10990

956184021159

20552


8/23


Global Copper-in-Concentrate Stock Changes - (kt Cu)

Contained Metal Basis 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Conc. Production/Capability (incl Probables) 12635 12634 12668 12862 12861 13975 15624Add/(Less) Market & Other Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 -610 -780Less Direct Use of Concs -19 -16 -21 -22 -22 -22 -22Concs Available for World Smelters 12616 12618 12647 12840 12839 13343 14822Concentrate Stock Change -3 -10 42 235 -203 0 50Smelter Usage 12619 12628 12605 12604 13041 13343 14772

Smelter Concs Usage Capacity 14551 15030 15654 15513 15660 16279 17014Concs Smelted as % of Smelter Capacity 86.7% 84.0% 80.5% 81.3% 83.3% 82.0% 86.8%Concentrate Stock Days 36 35 34 40 35 34 33Concentrates Smelted 12619 12628 12605 12604 13041 13343 14772

Less Processing Losses -490 -479 -429 -477 -442 -439 -480Smelter Production from Concentrates 12129 12149 12176 12128 12599 12904 14292Add Secondaries (incl Re-Smelted Blister) 1926 2083 1963 2611 2850 2974 3075World Smelter Production 14055 14232 14139 14738 15449 15879 17367



9/23


10/23


Global mine production - breakdown by product type (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)

Product Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Concentrate Copper 12628 12625 12655 12848 12847 13938 15482Precipitate Copper 7 9 13 14 14 14 13Subtotal 12635 12634 12668 12862 12861 13952 15495Add (Less) Net Adjustment 0 0 0 0 0 -587 -651Subtotal 12635 12634 12668 12862 12861 13365 14844

SxEw Copper 2990 3071 3289 3316 3424 3829 4084Add (Less) Net Adjustment 0 0 0 0 0 -190 -176Subtotal 2990 3071 3289 3316 3424 3639 3908

Total Copper 15624 15705 15957 16178 16285 17004 18752



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Global copper refined consumption - kt

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

South Africa 88 77 91 76 90 93 99

Egypt 139 171 172 171 157 168 188

Other Africa 47 48 47 48 49 53 56Africa 274 296 309 296 296 314 343

China 4670 5100 6375 7204 7780 8402 8990

India 516 529 552 580 594 614 643

Indonesia 200 195 193 216 215 224 233

Japan 1268 1199 876 1060 1014 1039 1068

Malaysia 201 191 167 203 198 200 211

South Korea 863 827 886 916 804 804 817

Taiwan 603 583 496 533 465 463 477

Thailand 250 245 215 244 230 239 250

Vietnam 98 102 102 105 106 108 115

Other Asia 217 212 173 208 207 210 217Asia 8886 9183 10035 11269 11613 12303 13020

Belgium 309 285 217 261 246 243 245

France 440 410 310 234 205 199 200

Germany 1392 1398 1134 1302 1291 1297 1315

Italy 764 635 523 604 580 571 573

Poland 301 237 203 260 247 248 256

Russia 678 679 395 445 700 686 695

Spain 280 270 267 290 281 279 283

Sweden 180 179 151 165 132 128 100

Other Europe * 444 389 336 301 296 292 320Europe * 4787 4482 3536 3861 3978 3944 3987

Brazil 331 372 316 435 404 416 431

Chile 105 103 91 100 100 101 103

Mexico 340 325 277 285 296 300 308

Other Latin America 87 88 83 83 87 90 93Latin America 864 889 768 903 887 907 935

Iran 135 135 133 140 130 130 132

Saudi Arabia 190 185 195 205 193 198 204

Turkey 358 360 323 370 387 388 409

United Arab Emirates 5 33 83 165 204 215 224

Other Middle East 27 27 26 26 27 31 35

Middle East 715 740 760 906 940 961 1004

Canada 169 167 132 137 144 148 148

United States 2137 2021 1632 1760 1813 1808 1796North America 2307 2188 1764 1897 1957 1956 1944

Australia 148 151 130 131 132 133 138

Other Oceania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Oceania 148 151 130 131 132 133 138

Global Total 17981 17929 17301 19264 19803 20516 21371

% change 2.8 -0.3 -3.5 11.3 2.8 3.6 4.2

*Including Under Reported Adjustment


check


13/23

Copper Monthly Update - Fe

Global copper refined consu

South Africa

Egypt

Other AfricaAfrica

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

South Korea

TaiwanThailand

Vietnam

Other AsiaAsia

Belgium

France

Germany

Italy

Poland

Russia

Spain

Sweden

Other Europe *

Europe *

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

Other Latin AmericaLatin America

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Other Middle EastMiddle East

Canada

United StatesNorth America

Australia

Other OceaniaOceania

Global Total

% change

*Including Under Reported Adjustmen

Source: Brook Hunt A Wood Macke

check


14/23


Global copper mine production (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Botswana 26 30 31 34 26 49 76

Congo DR 214 286 348 447 537 643 895

Eritrea 0 0 0 0 0 0 40

Mauritania 29 33 37 37 35 37 47

Morocco 8 8 16 18 14 14 14

South Africa 100 111 110 105 102 106 111

Zambia 565 546 654 691 692 793 930

Others 12 17 10 10 14 16 17TOTAL AFRICA 953 1031 1205 1342 1421 1659 2130

Armenia 24 22 24 35 37 38 39

China 992 1157 1056 1258 1375 1503 1570

Georgia 11 13 12 6 7 7 7

India 29 32 28 32 35 34 34

Indonesia 789 650 995 871 554 485 710

Kazakhstan 451 459 446 425 410 422 430

Laos 63 89 122 132 139 145 157

Mongolia 133 129 129 126 128 143 258

Myanmar 15 7 10 12 12 12 12

North Korea 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Philippines 23 23 49 58 62 76 85

Uzbekistan 95 75 85 86 89 92 98

Others 30 30 30 31 32 31 31TOTAL ASIA 2667 2699 2998 3084 2890 3000 3443

Albania 4 3 4 7 9 9 9

Bulgaria 93 91 93 93 100 107 107

Finland 14 13 15 15 14 30 57Poland 452 429 439 425 434 423 408

Portugal 90 89 86 79 87 70 80

Romania 11 12 2 6 7 7 7

Russia 677 682 692 670 674 683 700

Serbia 20 20 19 17 22 42 49

Spain 7 8 20 55 70 97 107

Sweden 63 57 55 77 83 85 88

Others 10 10 11 11 10 12 13TOTAL EUROPE 1440 1416 1434 1455 1510 1565 1623

Argentina 180 157 143 140 117 130 125

Brazil 199 220 216 221 213 259 345

Chile 5599 5402 5453 5480 5296 6010 6383

Mexico 314 227 219 238 422 485 497

Peru 1160 1229 1225 1204 1201 1292 1383

Others 2 4 14 13 18 23 29TOTAL L. AMERICA 7454 7239 7270 7296 7267 8198 8761

Iran 224 239 256 252 269 274 293

Oman 16 11 9 12 20 20 20

Saudi Arabia 0 1 1 1 1 11 62

Turkey 72 81 77 73 80 75 71TOTAL MIDDLE EAST 312 333 343 338 370 381 446

Canada 586 612 486 497 589 612 672

USA 1185 1340 1209 1145 1150 1242 1382TOTAL N. AMERICA 1772 1952 1695 1643 1739 1854 2054

Australia 858 875 845 861 949 987 1000

Papua New Guinea 169 160 167 160 140 138 120TOTAL OCEANIA 1027 1034 1012 1021 1089 1126 1121

TOTAL WORLD 15624 15705 15957 16178 16285 17781 19579

Highly Prob. & Probable (60%) 0 23 163

Additional Adjustment 0 -800 -990


15/23

Global copper mine production (kt copper in concentrate & leach output)

TOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION 15624 15705 15957 16178 16285 17004 18752



16/23


Global copper mine producti

Botswana

Congo DR

Eritrea

Mauritania

Morocco

South Africa

Zambia

OthersTOTAL AFRICA

Armenia

ChinaGeorgia

India

Indonesia

Kazakhstan

Laos

Mongolia

Myanmar

North Korea

Philippines

Uzbekistan

OthersTOTAL ASIA

Albania

Bulgaria

Finland

PolandPortugal

Romania

Russia

Serbia

Spain

Sweden

OthersTOTAL EUROPE

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

Peru

OthersTOTAL L. AMERICA

Iran

Oman

Saudi Arabia

TurkeyTOTAL MIDDLE EAST

Canada

USATOTAL N. AMERICA

Australia

Papua New GuineaTOTAL OCEANIA

TOTAL WORLD

Highly Prob. & Probable (60%)

Additional Adjustment


17/23

Global copper mine producti

TOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION



18/23


Global copper smelter production - kt

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Namibia 22 16 18 33 37 39 45

South Africa 113 97 89 78 84 97 101

Congo DR 106 135 111 141 150 165 195

Zambia 299 298 390 518 535 613 746

Zimbabwe 10 10 6 6 6 6 6TOTAL AFRICA 550 556 614 776 812 920 1093

China 2649 2923 3177 3642 4195 4939 5627

India 709 672 712 647 674 687 742

Indonesia 277 261 310 263 280 300 300

Japan 1586 1548 1440 1549 1330 1545 1623

Kazakhstan 391 388 310 314 320 385 395

Malaysia 30 50 0 0 0 0 0

North Korea 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Pakistan 18 18 18 19 19 19 19

Philippines 182 196 178 176 180 90 180

South Korea 511 488 515 535 568 600 600

Thailand 20 0 0 0 0 0 0

Uzbekistan 90 71 83 86 92 95 95


Austria 61 79 69 78 60 58 50

Belgium 125 128 130 135 135 145 165

Bulgaria 229 270 270 270 295 295 330

Finland 119 142 110 120 127 140 150

Germany 590 603 585 580 603 631 661

Norway 34 37 34 36 36 38 38

Poland 528 523 508 554 560 560 560

Russian Federation 752 749 719 755 774 772 801

Serbia 36 34 27 22 27 50 60

Slovak Republic 20 27 27 41 50 50 58

Spain 281 298 292 276 279 295 305

Sweden 214 228 206 190 215 215 225

Ukraine 20 22 20 28 25 27 30


Brazil 218 225 199 225 230 265 280

Chile 1574 1512 1618 1563 1557 1593 1624

Mexico 195 164 137 98 230 250 215

Peru 272 319 307 269 257 300 320TOTAL L. AMERICA 2259 2221 2261 2155 2274 2408 2439

Iran 200 200 204 212 219 215 215

Oman 14 15 13 7 12 15 15


Canada 466 402 303 274 257 270 270


Australia 398 430 372 349 437 403 393TOTAL OCEANIA 398 430 372 349 437 403 393

TOTAL WORLD 14055 14232 14139 14738 15449 16785 18074

Net Adjustment 0 -907 -707TOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION 14055 14232 14139 14738 15449 15879 17367



19/23

Co er Monthly U date - Fe

Global copper smelter produ

Namibia

South Africa

Congo DR

Zambia

ZimbabweTOTAL AFRICA

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

KazakhstanMalaysia

North Korea

Pakistan

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Uzbekistan

OthersTOTAL ASIA

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Finland

Germany

Norway

Poland

Russian Federation

Serbia

Slovak Republic

Spain

Sweden

Ukraine

OthersTOTAL EUROPE

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

PeruTOTAL L. AMERICA

Iran

OmanTurkey

TOTAL MIDDLE EAST

Canada

USATOTAL N. AMERICA

AustraliaTOTAL OCEANIA

TOTAL WORLD

Net AdjustmentTOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION



20/23


Global copper refinery production - kt

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Congo D.R. 27 72 168 256 348 454 603

Egypt 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

South Africa 114 97 92 81 84 97 101

Zambia 497 430 472 537 525 620 726

Zimbabwe 6 6 6 6 6 6 6TOTAL AFRICA 648 608 742 883 966 1180 1439

China 3519 3795 4109 4534 5197 6311 7435

India 709 672 712 647 674 687 742

Indonesia 257 253 286 278 280 300 300

Japan 1577 1540 1440 1549 1328 1545 1623

Kazakhstan 406 398 328 323 336 416 436

Laos 63 64 68 64 79 80 82

Myanmar 15 7 10 12 12 12 12

North Korea 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Philippines 160 175 178 176 175 90 180

South Korea 583 530 534 555 588 603 600

Uzbekistan 90 71 83 86 92 95 95


Austria 81 107 96 114 110 108 108

Belgium 396 392 375 389 398 403 410

Bulgaria 70 125 196 216 226 225 225

Finland 112 135 112 128 135 155 165

Germany 666 690 668 709 714 742 777

Italy 29 24 11 11 12 14 15

Norway 34 37 34 36 36 38 38

Poland 533 527 503 547 565 560 560

Romania 19 15 0 0 0 0 0

Russian Federation 945 869 848 901 908 921 975

Serbia 36 34 27 22 27 50 60

Spain 270 283 281 303 323 361 378

Sweden 214 228 206 190 215 215 225

Ukraine 20 22 20 28 25 27 30


Argentina 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Bolivia 0 0 1 3 4 4 4

Brazil 220 230 202 237 236 271 286

Chile 2951 3052 3293 3235 3121 3301 3349

Mexico 363 302 245 236 446 416 389

Peru 406 465 441 408 363 394 401TOTAL L. AMERICA 3956 4064 4197 4135 4186 4401 4444

Iran 207 207 211 220 228 224 224

Oman 14 15 13 7 12 15 15


Canada 453 438 336 316 268 281 285


Australia 444 501 449 427 500 482 475TOTAL OCEANIA 444 501 449 427 500 482 475

TOTAL WORLD 18025 18260 18306 18979 19724 21735 23624

Net Adjustment 0 -1319 -1566TOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION 18025 18260 18306 18979 19724 20416 22058



21/23


Global copper refinery prod

Congo D.R.

Egypt

South Africa

Zambia

ZimbabweTOTAL AFRICA

China

India

Indonesia

Japan

KazakhstanLaos

Myanmar

North Korea

Philippines

South Korea

Uzbekistan

OthersTOTAL ASIA

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Finland

Germany

Italy

Norway

Poland

Romania

Russian Federation

Serbia

Spain

Sweden

Ukraine

OthersTOTAL EUROPE

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Mexico

Peru

TOTAL L. AMERICAIran

Oman

TurkeyTOTAL MIDDLE EAST

Canada

USATOTAL N. AMERICA

AustraliaTOTAL OCEANIA

TOTAL WORLD

Net AdjustmentTOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION



22/23


Copper supply/demand balance global summary - kt

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FOR MINES PRODUCING CONCS/PRECIPS...

Concs/Precips Production Capability 12635 12634 12668 12862 12861 13952 15495

Highly-Probable New Concs Projects 4 46

Probable Conc Producers 19 84

Disruption Allowance (5% of Initial Forecast) -610 -780Price Related/Market Adjustment 0 0

Total Concs/Precips Production 12635 12634 12668 12862 12861 13365 14844

FOR SMELTERS...

Smelter Production Capability (net of identified adjustments) 14055 14232 14139 14738 15449 16785 18074Additional Adjustment (non-plant specific) -907 -707

Smelter Production 14055 14232 14139 14738 15449 15879 17367

FOR REFINERIES TAKING BLISTER & SCRAP...

Refinery Production Capability (net of identified adjustment) 15035 15189 15017 15662 16300 17906 19540Additional Adjustment (non-plant specific) -1129 -1389

Er + Fr Refinery Production 15035 15189 15017 15662 16300 16776 18151

FOR MINE/LEACH OPERATIONS PRODUCING SALEABLE

CATHODE...

SxEw/Hydromet Forecast Production Capability 2990 3071 3289 3316 3424 3829 4084

Highly Probable New Projects 0 25

Prob SxEw Producers 0 9

Disruption Allowance (5% of Initial Forecast) -190 -210

Price Related/Market Adjustment 0 0Total SxEw Production 2990 3071 3289 3316 3424 3639 3908

TOTAL COPPER SUPPLY : 18025 18260 18306 18979 19724 20416 22058

CONSUMPTION : 17981 17929 17301 19264 19803 20516 21371

CHANGE IN STOCKS

- Concs -3 -10 42 235 -203 0 50

- Blister 33 -13 78 -119 -6 0 130

- Metal 44 332 1005 -286 -80 -100 687

METAL STOCKS

- Total 1938 2270 3274 2989 2909 2809 3496- Days of consumption 39 46 69 57 54 50 60

PRICE - CASH LME

- c/lb (Money-of-the-day) 323 315 234 342 400 395 370

- 2011$ 351 329 246 353 400 389 357

- $/tonne (Money-of-the-day) 7124 6951 5163 7536 8810 8700 8150- 2011$ 7728 7262 5413 7774 8810 8580 7880



23/23


Copper supply/demand balance global summar

FOR MINES PRODUCING CONCS/PRECIPS...

Concs/Precips Production Capability

Highly-Probable New Concs Projects

Probable Conc Producers

Disruption Allowance (5% of Initial Forecast)Price Related/Market Adjustment

Total Concs/Precips Production

FOR SMELTERS...

Smelter Production Capability (net of identified adjustments)Additional Adjustment (non-plant specific)

Smelter Production

FOR REFINERIES TAKING BLISTER & SCRAP...

Refinery Production Capability (net of identified adjustment)Additional Adjustment (non-plant specific)

Er + Fr Refinery Production

FOR MINE/LEACH OPERATIONS PRODUCING SALEABLE

CATHODE...

SxEw/Hydromet Forecast Production Capability

Highly Probable New Projects

Prob SxEw Producers

Disruption Allowance (5% of Initial Forecast)Price Related/Market Adjustment

Total SxEw Production

TOTAL COPPER SUPPLY :

CONSUMPTION :

CHANGE IN STOCKS

- Concs

- Blister

- Metal

METAL STOCKS

- Total- Days of consumption

PRICE - CASH LME

- c/lb (Money-of-the-day)

- 2011$

- $/tonne (Money-of-the-day)- 2011$


monthly february 2012

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