By Wayne Caswell

The FUTURE of Health Care

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

From FutureMed University

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

What’s TRENDING

What’s NEEDED

What’s POSSIBLE

What INHIBITORS

What DRIVERS

WHICH Future?

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

SocialMedia

RisingCosts

DigitalSensors

Telemedicine

Telepresence

WirelessBroadband

AgingBoomers

Smartphones& Tablets

ModernHealth

Talk

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989

Live Births per Year (Millions)

Baby Bust(41 Million)

Baby Boom(76 Million)

Echo Boom(64 Million)

World Population more than doubled in 65 years.Average Lifespan up 30 years over last century. Living for 1,000 years is possible, futurists say.

As 10,000 Boomers turn 65/day, 90,000 Doctor Shortfall.Governments, Cities & Homes aren’t ready.

Unpaid Family Caretakers pick up slack.

IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972(System/370 Model 158-3)

Apple smartphone, Christmas 2011(iPhone 4S)

COST: ~$3.5 million ($19M in 2011 dollars) COST: $200-$400 with 2 year contract

PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS (million instructions per second)

PERFORMANCE: 5,000 MIPS (1 GHz dual-core processor rated at 2.5 DMIPS/MHz per core)

MEMORY: 4 MB max MEMORY: 512 MB standard

STORAGE: typical 1.5 GB (200 MB/drive) STORAGE: 16, 32 or 64 GB © Modern Health Talk

IBM Mainframe computer, circa 1972(System/370 Model 158-3)

My Toothbrush(Philips Sonicare)

COST: ~$3.5 million ($19M in 2011 dollars) COST: $69.99

PERFORMANCE: 1 MIPS (million instructions per second)

PERFORMANCE: 10 MIPS (Zilog Z8 embedded microprocessor)

MEMORY: 4 MB max

STORAGE: typical 1.5 GB (200 MB/drive) © 2013, Modern Health Talk

SENSORS in Homes measure:

PHONE for REMOTE ACCESS

•Contact, •Temperature, •Light, •Motion, •Acceleration, •Smell (CO2, off-gassing), •Pressure (pulse, blood pressure), •Moisture, •Chemicals

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

SENSORS in Homes, Cars and Clothing measure:

PHONE as HEALTH GATEWAY

•Contact, •Temperature, •Light, •Motion, •Acceleration, •Smell (CO2, off-gassing), •Pressure (pulse, blood pressure), •Moisture, •Chemicals

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

Minimally Invasive, Continuous MonitoringMonitor Trends to Avoid Lows & Highs

Understand Context of Readings

Guardian Glucose Monitor

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

FDA cleared for licensed medical professionals and prescribed patients to record, display, store and transfer single-channel electrocardiogram (ECG) rhythms.

Use AliveCor iPhone case to take ECG every day for a year for less than $1/test.Captures more info than a typical ECG at the doctor’s office and costs less.Send 365 ECGs to the doctor for less than the cost to have one done at the hospital.Monitor trends, know context of deviations, and predict (and avoid) problems.

$199 AliveCor Heart Monitor

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

Capsule EndoscopyA disposable capsule with video camera can examine parts of the small

intestine that standard scopes can’t reach. Video images are received by a recorder work on a belt and then downloaded to a computer for analysis.

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

Sensors as Temporary Tatt ooThe devices can pick up heartbeats when stuck on the chest, skeletal

muscle activity when on the leg, and brainwaves when on the forehead.

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

3D Printed Body Parts

L IVER EARS

BONES

Also: •bladder, •t rachea, •carti lage, •ur ine tubes , •spinal cords

But i t ’s sti l l just Research

It is now possible to use 3D printers to print cells that can multiply into actual fully printed tissues used in medical research… and to create organs.

© Modern Health Talk

Brain-Computer InterfaceIt’s now possible to Command a Robot or Fly a Helicopter with your thoughts.

And bulky sensor are no loner needed.

TeleHEALTH & TeleMEDICINEAt Home, at the Office,

on the Go, at a Kiosk

© Modern Health Talk

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

Genes,Proteins &Chemicals

Cells &Atoms

CognitiveScience

Bits &Networks

INFO

NEURO

BIO

NANO

21st CenturyMedicine

Science & Tech Convergence

Peter Pan Homes

Governments , C iti es & Bui lders are Not Ready.

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

GREEDAnd the Corrupting Power

of Money in Politics

• Immensely Profitable Industry• Patients as Paying Customers• FFS: Treat Symptoms• Resistant to Change• Lobbying Influence

• Hospitals• Insurers• Drug Companies• Testing Companies• Equipment Providers

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

“You have a rare condition called ‘Good Health.”

Frankly, I’m not sure how to treat it.”

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

WATSON

Now being applied to Health Care & Medical Research.Watson can parse & analyze 300 M books in 3 seconds.

Medical Knowledge Doubles every 5 Years.250x faster and 8x smaller.

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

By 2013, a Supercomputer will exceed the computational & analytical power of the Human Brain. (Ray Kurzweil)

By 2023, a $1,000 computer will; and by 2037, a $0.01 computer will.

By 2049, a $1,000 computer will exceed the computational & analytical power of the Human Race.

And by 2059 a $0.01 computer will.

What IMPLICATIONS : Health, Career, Inequality, Political?

Technology is advancing . . .

EXPONENTIALLY

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

Is the Future Half Empty?

© 2013, Modern Health Talk

1.Too many People

2.Too many Elderly

3.Fossil Fuel driven Economy

4.Climate Change

5.Widening Income Gap

6.Greed

7.Education Never Over

8.Already Invented

9.Growth Limits