roadmapping the semiconductor industry: are we reaching ..."the roadmap is just moore's...

HPEC 2004 Panel Session:Amending Moore’s Law for Embedded Applications

Roadmapping the Semiconductor Industry: Are we reaching the end of the road?

Bob SchallerCollege of Southern Maryland

September 29, 2004

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The Road to Technology Roadmaps

TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS:Implications for Innovation, Strategy, and Policy

• Personal experience in computer service since mid 1970s: from mainframe to minicomputer to personal computer

– observed miniaturization but had no “label” for trend– first introduced to “Moore's Law” in PhD Special Topics course– wrote term paper on Moore's Law, later published in IEEE Spectrum

(June 1997) - met Gordon Moore as part of research• Proposed Intel case study as dissertation topic (i.e., coordinating effect of

Moore’s Law) but did not work• Request to Sematech to study SIA Roadmap (Moore's Law "Insurance")

– formal research arrangement with ITRS Managing Editor– met Ron Kostoff at ONR and co-authored S&T Roadmap paper (IEEE

TEM, May 2001); got connected w/ other “roadmappers”

Rycroft/Kash Innovation Patterns

Traje

ctory

2

---Te

chno

logy-

-----

Netw

ork-

--

ba

---Te

chno

logy-

-----

Netw

ork-

--

Traje

ctory

1

Performance

Time

Normal Pattern(silicon, CMOS, microprocessor, stepper litho, copper, SoC, etc.)

Transformation Pattern (transistor)

Transition Pattern(IC and planar process)

Innovation legend:IncrementalMajorFundamental

gf

e

d

c

Moore’s Law and the ITRS

Chapter 8: Moore's Law: Basis for Industrial Cadence

• Simple observation (plot) becomes an imperative (law)• Fundamentally defines industry, part of its culture• Made possible by upstream SM&E capabilities and

permeates downstream user capabilities• Basis for Roadmap• Appendix includes 8yr retrospective and new

formulations (e.g., as learning curve)

What is Moore’s Law?

"The Roadmap is just Moore's Law, heavily decorated."

- Sonny Maynard, SRC VP

"We don't adhere to Moore's Law for the hell of it. It's a fundamental expectation that everybody at Intel buys into… We simply don't accept the growing complexity of the challenge as an excuse not to keep it going."

- Craig Barrett, Intel CEO

"Moore's Law is not a law; it is an act of will."

- Chris Mack, KLA-Tencor VP

Intel Microprocessor Evolution

P Pro

20001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

4004

o

year of introduction

# tra

nsis

tors

per

chi

p (lo

g sc

ale)

100M

10M

1M

100K

10K

1K

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

oo

o

80088080

8085

8086/88

80286

80386

80486

Pentium

x

10000

1000

100

10

1

.1x x

x x

x

x

x

xx

x

perfo

rman

ce in

MIP

S (lo

g sc

ale)

Legendo chip density (# transistors)x MIPS (millions of

instructions per second)

2005

x

oP4

PIII

PII

o

x

o

x

o

x

Itaniumxo

o

xCeleron

Xeonx

A Retroactive Look at Moore’s Law

Year Feature Size Technology

1900 1 inch Telegraph wires

1912 1/4 inch Electromechanical relays

1924 1/16 inch de Forest Audion

1936 16 mils Triode vacuum tubes

1948 4 mils Miniature vacuum tubes

1960 1 mil (25 µm) Planar transistor

Source: Chris A. Mack, "The End of the Semiconductor Industry as We Know It," Paper presented at SPIE 2003, February 2003, Table 1, 5. Data taken from Raymond Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, New York: Penguin Books, 1999.

Source: Raymond Kurzweil, "The Law of Accelerating Returns," March 7, 2001, http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html

Gordon Moore: No Exponential is Forever … but We Can Delay “Forever,” ISSC03

Projected 2000 Wafer, circa 1975

Moore was not always accurateSource: www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm, Slide #12

Blind Extrapolation (Mack from 1995)

Source: Chris A. Mack, “Down the Silicon Information Highway,” Semiconductor International, September 1995, 190.

“The lesson to be learned here is simple: Moore’s Law is not forever… Given the above scenario for the year 2025, I would say that forcing ourselves to adhere to our current path without economic justification is even more dangerous.”

Moore’s Law: Literature S-Curve

"Moore's Law" Articles Found in ProQuest

13

14

2 3

8

14

30

59

43

4749

67

52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1979 1980-90 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: http://proquest.umi.com/

ITRS: Moore’s Law “Insurance”

Jointly Sponsoredby

European Semiconductor Industry AssociationJapan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association

Korea Semiconductor Industry AssociationTaiwan Semiconductor Industry Association

Semiconductor Industry Association

Generic Roadmap

PRODUCT

TECHNOLOGY

R&D PROJECT(SCIENCE)

P1 P2 P3

P4

T1T2

T3

RD1

MARKET M1 M2

time(years) 2

T4

RD2

RD3 RD5

RD6RD4

31 40 5 6

The ITRS and Organized Innovation

Europe SematechSRC

SIA

SISA

SEMI

U.S. Semiconductor Industry

U.S. SM&E Industry Universities

MARCO Focus Centers

NIST, other Government Agencies

DoE Labs

U.S. Semiconductor Innovation Network

(expanded view)

Japan

Taiwan

Korea

China, other Regions

Technology Working Groups

Factory Integration

Metrology

Defect Reduction

Process Integration, Devices & Structures

Environment, Safety & Health Assembly & Packaging

Front End Processes

Interconnect

Lithography

Test

Design

Modeling & Simulation

International Participant Networks

Future

Moore’s Law Goes Global

1992NTRS

Transition of ITRSUS DomesticUS Domestic InternationalInternational

1991 Micro Tech 2000Workshop Report

1994NTRS

1997NTRS

2000 ITRSUpdate

2001 2001 ITRSITRS

1999 1999 ITRSITRS

1998 ITRSUpdate19981998

World Semiconductor CouncilWorld Semiconductor Council

http://public.itrs.net

ISS Korea 2002, March 22, T. Fukushima

1992NTRS

Transition of ITRSUS DomesticUS Domestic InternationalInternational

1991 Micro Tech 2000Workshop Report

1994NTRS

1997NTRS

2000 ITRSUpdate

2001 2001 ITRSITRS

1999 1999 ITRSITRS

1998 ITRSUpdate19981998

World Semiconductor CouncilWorld Semiconductor Council

http://public.itrs.net

ISS Korea 2002, March 22, T. FukushimaISS Korea 2002, March 22, T. Fukushima

2003 ITRS TWG Demographics936 Global Participants

42%

12%

22%

3%

21%

Europe108

Japan205

Korea32

Taiwan196

USA395

TWG Members by Region

Chipmakers549

2%

19%

20%

59%

Others 23

Consortia, Research Institutes,

Universities183

Equipment/MaterialsSuppliers

181

TWG Members by Affiliation

42%

12%

22%

3%

21%

Europe108

Japan205

Korea32

Taiwan196

USA395


42%

12%

22%

3%

21%

42%

12%

22%

3%

21%

Europe108

Japan205

Korea32

Taiwan196

USA395

Europe108

Japan205

Korea32

Taiwan196

USA395


Chipmakers549

2%

19%

20%

59%

Others 23


Universities183


181


Chipmakers549

2%2%

19%

20%

59%19%

20%

59%

Others 23


Universities183


181


Changing Roadmap Participation Mix

Roadmap Participation MixIndustry, Consortia & University, Government

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

91 MT2000 92 Roadmap 94 NTRS 97 NTRS 99 ITRS 01 ITRS

Industry Consortia & University Government2 per. Mov. Avg. (Industry) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Consortia & University) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Government)

ITRS Future Challenges

–Overcoming “red brick wall”–Path dependency: how to balance on-

and off-roadmap innovation–Caution of becoming too unwieldy and

prescriptive–“Roadmap” may not be the best

metaphor (implies certainty)–Maintaining voluntary participation–Increasing cost of roadmapping

roadmapping the semiconductor industry: are we reaching ..."the roadmap is just moore's...

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