moscow, iki, 5 june 2012 Космические лучи как фактор и как...

Moscow, IKI, 5 June 2012

Космические лучи как фактор и как инструмент для предсказания влияния

космической погоды на биосферу

Lev Dorman (a, b)(a) Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN,

Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk, Moscow, Russia

(b) Israel Cosmic Ray & Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory,

affiliated to Tel Aviv University and Israel Space Agency, Israel

• Работа состоит из двух частей. В первой части приводятся результаты ряда анализов длительных рядов ежедневных показателей инфарктов миокарда, инсультов, а также автомобильных инцидентов с тяжелым исходом в спокой-ное время и в периоды сильных Форбуш-понижений интен-сивности космических лучей. Обнаружено существенное (7-9 сигма) возрастание ежедневного числа инфарктов миокарда, инсультов, а также автомобильных катастроф в периоды мощных магнитных бурь, сопровождаемых сильными Форбуш-понижениями интенсивности космичес-ких лучей. Показано, что в данном случае космические лучи практически не воздействуют на здоровье людей, но явля-ются индикатором воздействия космической погоды (коро-нальных выбросов плазмы и межпланетных ударных волн) на магнитосферу Земли и через это воздействие – на здо-ровье людей. Показано также как непрерывные наблюде-ния космических лучей могут быть использованы для пред-сказания ситуаций космической погоды, опасных для здо-ровья людей и тем самым резко снизить риск получения инфарктов миокарда, инсультов, а также автомобильных инцидентов с тяжелым исходом.

• Во второй части мы рассматриваем прямое воздействие космических лучей на биосферу (так называемые радиационные эффекты). Дело в том, что под огромной толщей атмосферы (около 1000 грамм на см2) поток космических лучей уменьшается почти в сто раз. Тем не менее, поток мюонов и релятивистских электронов у земной поверхности составляет около миллиона на квадратный метр за один час, причем каждая космическая частица в теле человека создает около 50000 ионов и разрушений молекул на сантиметре пути. Кроме того, в резуль-тате каскадных процессов возникает поток нейтронов, свободно прони-кающих вглубь объектов биосферы и производящих различные ядер-ные реакции. За многие миллионы лет биосфера практически адапти-ровалась к этим потокам космических лучей (более того, космические лучи сыграли решающую роль в существенном ускорении эволюции биосферы и довольно быстром появлении человека). Однако, когда потоки космических лучей возрастают в несколько раз (как во время очень мощных солнечных вспышек или при полетах на современных самолетах на высоте около 10 км), или даже в многие десятки раз (как при полетах на спутниках в магнитосфере Земли или на космических кораблях в межпланетном пространстве), радиационная опасность становится существенной. Мы описываем разработанный нами метод предсказания ожидаемой радиационной опасности от мощных солне-чных вспышек в атмосфере в зависимости от высоты и жесткости гео-магнитного обрезания, а также для спутников и космических кораблей на основе минутных данных наблюдений космических лучей на нейт-ронных мониторах и спутниках.

Part 1. Cosmic rays and space weather influence on atmosphere

processes and global/local climate change

• Determining of the part of global climate change caused by the long-term change of CR intensity through influence on air ionization and planetary clouds formation; examples from the past; method of forecasting of the part of global climate change caused by space weather effects

CR intensity according to Huancayo/Haleakala NM (cut off rigidity 12.9 GV, normalized to October 1965, curve 2) in comparison with global average of

monthly cloud coverage anomalies (curves 1) for: a – high clouds, H > 6.5 km, b – middle clouds, 6.5 km >H > 3.2 km, and c – low clouds, H < 3.2 km.

According to Marsh and Swensmark (2000a).

Situation in the Maunder minimum: a) variation in reconstructed solar irradiance from Lean et al. (1995); b) variation in concentration from Beer et al. (1991); c) reconstructed air surface temperature for the northern hemisphere from Jones et al. (1998). According to

Swensmark (2000).

18. Global Climate Change and Volcano Eruptions

• Yearly average values of the global air temperature, t, near the Earth’s surface for the period from 1880. Arrows show the dates of the volcano erup with the dust emission to the stratosphere and short times cooling after eruptions. From Ermakov et al. (2006).

Total ionization during GLE in October 1989, July 2000, and April 2001. According to Quack et al. (2001).

3. Cosmic Ray Influence on the Chemical Processes in the Atmosphere and

Formation of Ozone Layer

• NO production by CR (Crutzen et al., 1975).

Percentage decrease of the O3 partial pressure versus air pressure derived from the average of the 7 days before 4 August 1972 and 7 day periods

centered on 8 and 19 days after the GLE (solid lines). According to Heath et al. (1977).

External Atmospheric Showers (EAS) generated by high energy CR particles

and thunderstorm discharges (Ermakov and Stozhkov, 2002, 2003)

215 cmgeV10lg75500 om EX

eV1014oE

eV1014oE 1EAS sec1300 F

Part 2. Global natural disaster from great magnetic storms connected with big CR

Forbush-decreases and their assessment by using world-wide network of CR stations

• Great geomagnetic storms affect adversely global technology systems, high frequency radio communications are disrupted, electric power distribution grids are blacked out when induced currents causes safety devices to trip, and atmospheric warming causes increased drag on satellites and anomalies in their operation, increasing of frequency of infarct myocardial, brain strokes, car and train accidents; examples of electric power and long oil tubes catastrophes in the past in Canada and other countries.

• We show that by using on-line one hour CR data from world-wide network of stations is possible to made exact assessment of this natural hazard for 15-20 hours before of the storm sudden commencement

WHY MAGNETIC STORMS ARE DANGEROUS ?

3. WHAT PRECURSORY EFFECTS CAN BE USED FOR FORECASTING ?

• It is well known that big geomagnetic storms have an adverse influence on technological devices and radio wave propagation. Major geomagnetic storms, associated with Forbush decreases (FDs) in cosmic ray (CR) intensity, have also been found to increase the incidence of some diseases (in particular, the frequency of myocardial infarction increases by 13 ± 1.4%). We discuss here three phenomena that can be used for forecasting FDs: 1) CR intensity increase, of non solar CR origin, occurring before sudden commencement of a major geomagnetic storm connected with FD (preincrease effect), 2) CR intensity decrease before FD (predecrease effect), 3) change in CR fluctuations before FD. First we investigate several such events by the global survey method for the years 1989-1991. We analyse the behaviour of the isotropic CR intensity and of the 3-dimensional vector of CR anisotropy before FDs, as well as results on CR scintillation of 1-hour and 5-minute data.

Part 3. Global natural disaster from great intense radiation hazards for astronauts, crew and

passengers on regular airline flights, for people on

the ground due to great solar flare CR events • Statistical distribution, • Examples from the past; • We show that this advertisement, with high occurrence probability, can

be given 30-60 minutes before the arrival of the more dangerous particle flux

• This method is based on the well known fact that the main part of radiation hazard in space and in atmosphere is caused by particles with small energy (few hundreds MeV) that reach the Earth 1-2 hours after their acceleration on the Sun

• On the contrary the relatively small flux of high-energy ( 2 GeV) particles, which can be detected by super neutron monitors and practically are not involved in the radiation hazard, reach the Earth much more quickly.

Part 3. Global natural disaster from great intense radiation hazards due to great solar

flare CR events• We show that 20-30 minutes of CR observation by

neutron monitors on the ground and CR on satellites of the first-coming solar high-energy particles give enough information for automatically determining total flux and energy spectrum on the Sun (source function) as well as transport parameters in the Heliosphere

• This make it possible to predict the time-space distribution for about 48 hours of radiation hazard in interplanetary space and in the Earth’s magnetosphere (for astronauts and space-probe technology) and in the Earth’s atmosphere (for crew, passengers and technology in aircrafts, for people and technology on the ground) as a function of geomagnetic cut-off rigidity and altitude.

Proton events and anomalies

Mean satellite anomaly frequencies in 0- and 1-days of proton enhancements

in dependence on the maximal > 10 MeV flux

Proton events and anomalies

Probability of any anomaly (high altitude – high inclination group) in dependence on the maximal proton > 10 and >60 MeV flux

The dependencies of observed frequency P (events/year) as a function from the value of logarithm of fluency lg(F) for

solar protons with energy >10 MeV

The dependencies of observed frequency P (events/year) as a function from the value of logarithm of fluency lg(F) for

solar protons with energy >30 MeV

FORECAST STEPS1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE

FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA

2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS

3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION

4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED FEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS

5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NM DATA AND BEGINNING OF SATELLITE DATA

1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE FEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON

MONITOR DATA

160

1201 60lnln

Zk

ZkAkAZZA IID

160

1201 60lnln

Zk

ZkBkBZZB IID

DZA1 2.5, DZB1 2.5,

THE PROBABILITY OF FALSE ALARMS

THE PROBABILITY OF MISSED TRIGGERS

EXAMPLE OF INTERNET PRESENTATION OF REAL TIME DATA FROM ESO (ISRAEL)

2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING

FUNCTIONS

mmm km

kcm

kmmcm RaRaRkaRRW exp1,

11 , if cRR,

and 0,RRWcm , if cRR

bRRDRD o

dRRaRRakaRFc

mmm

R

km

kkcmmmcm

expexp1, 11

,,,,

,,,,,

cmccncnccm

clccmcmcclclmn RFRRWRFRRW

RFRRWRFRRWR

cmocmcm RIRIRI

,, ckcckcck RbFRRWRRI

2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING

FUNCTIONS

cmcncncm

clcmcmclc RIRFRIRF

RIRFRIRFR

,,

,,

,,,,

,,

clccmcmccl

clccmcmccl

RFRRWRFRRW

RIRRWRIRRWb

cmccncnccm

clccmcmcclclmn RIRRWRIRRW

RIRRWRIRRWR

,,

,,,

3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (1-st

CASE: K(R) DOES NOT DEPEND FROM DISTANCE TO SUN)

xTTtxTTtxTTt e 13312211 ,,

R TTxTTxTb

Tb

r

RK

xTTx

TT2123

122

12

112

12 ln4

R TTxTTxTb

Tb

r

RK

xTTx

TT3123

133

12

113

13 ln4

11312 TTTTx

R TTxTTxTb

Tb

R TTxTTxTb

Tb

TT

TT

132313

3

1

122312

2

1

12

13

ln

ln

3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (1-st CASE: K(R) DOES

NOT DEPEND FROM DISTANCE TO SUN)

R TTxTTxTb

Tb

xTTxTTr

R TTxTTxTb

Tb

xTTxTTrRK

132313

3

1

13132

1

122312

2

1

12122

1

ln

4

ln

4

3

213332

212

2212

1111

4/exp2/32/124/exp2/3

2/124/exp2/32/12

tRKrtRKRDR ttbtRKrtRK

RDR ttbtRKrtRKRDR ttbRN

o

ooo

eeo TTRK

rTTRKRNTrRn4

2exp232

1,, 21

3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION (1-st

CASE: K(R) DOES NOT DEPEND FROM DISTANCE TO SUN)

The behavior of RK for R 10 GV with time


(2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

tRK

rrtRKrRNtrRn o

12

21

24

231

231

2exp

232,,

11, rrRKrRK 321 ,, nnn 321 ,, ttt

1

31132

1232113

132

12312 lnlnlnln32

nnttt

tttnntt

ttt

ttttt

31

213

13

11

21

212

12

12

11

21

1ln2ln23ln2ln23 nntt

ttr

nntt

ttrRK

kko

tRK

rtRKrnRN

12

2123

123

124

12

exp232


(2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED FEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS (2-nd CASE: K(R, r) DEPENDS FROM DISTANCE TO THE SUN)

Fig. 2 . Calculation on line parameters , RK1 , RN o and forecasting of total neutron intensity (time t is in minutes after 10.00 UT of September 29, 1989; curves – forecasting, circles – observed total neutron intensity) .

Fig. 2 . Calculation on line parameters , RK1 RK1 , RN o RN o and forecasting of total neutron intensity (time t is in minutes after 10.00 UT of September 29, 1989; curves – forecasting, circles – observed total neutron intensity) .


11, rrRKrRK

111 RRcvKRK

dRdR

RKTT

rRKTTrRNdTTRF

e

e

TRo

Tcs

ce

1

21

2

24

231

231 2

exp232

RKTT

rrRKTTrRNTrRn

e

eo

12

21

24

231

231

2exp

232,,

maxln, kko EEaeoo RTTRNTRN

CONCLUSION

BY ONE-MINUTE NEUTRON MONITOR DATA AND ONE-MINUTE AVAILABLE FROM INTERNET COSMIC RAY SATELLITE DATA FOR 20-30 MINDATA IT IS POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THE TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION, AND DIFFUSIONCOEFFICIENT IN DEPENDENCE FROM ENERGY ANDDISTANCE FROM THE SUN. THEN IT IS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST OF FEP FLUXES AND FLUENCY IN HIGH AND LOW ENERGY RANGES UP TO ABOUT TWO DAYS. SEPTEMBER 1989 EVENT IS USED AS A TEST CASE.

The inverse problem for SEP propagation and generation in the frame of anisotropic diffusion and

in kinetic approach• It is well known that energy spectrum of solar energetic particles (SEP), observed by

ground based neutron monitors and muon telescopes (in high energy region; the transfer to the space from the ground observations is made by the method of coupling functions, see in Chapter 3 of Dorman, 2004), and by detectors on satellites and space-probes (in small energy region) changed with time very much (usually from very hard at the beginning of event to very soft at the end of event). The observed spectrum of SEP and its change with time are determined by three main parameters: energy spectrum in source, time of ejection, and propagation mode. In the past we considered the first step for forecasting of radiation hazard: the simple isotropic mode of SEP propagation in the interplanetary space (see Chapter 2 in Dorman, 2006). It was shown that on the basis of observation data at several moments of time could be solved the inverse problem and determined energy spectrum in source, time of ejection, and diffusion coefficient in dependence of energy and distance from the Sun. Here we consider the inverse problem for the complicated case: mode of anisotropic diffusion and kinetic approach. We show that in this case also the inverse problem can be solved, but it needs NM data at least at several locations on the Earth. We show that in this case the solution of inverse problem starts to work well sufficiently earlier than solution for isotropic diffusion, but after 20-25 minutes both solutions give about the same results. It is important that obtained results and reality of used model can be controlled by independent data on SEP energy spectrum in other moments of time (does not used at solving of inverse problem). On the basis of obtained results can be estimate the total release energy in the SEP event and radiation environment in the inner Heliosphere, in the magnetosphere, and atmosphere of the Earth during SEP event.

THE STEPS OF FORECASTING 1-3

• For realization of the first step of forecasting we need one minute real-time data from about all NM of the world network. On the each NM must work automatically the program for the search of the start SEP events as it was described in Sections 1-3. This search will help to determine which NM from about 50 of total number operated in the world network show the narrow peak of the anisotropic stream of the first arrived solar CR (NM of the 1-st type) and which show a diffusive tail with a wide maximum at a later time (NM of the 2-nd type). In the second step we determine rigidity spectrum of arrived solar CR by using separately NM of the 1-st type and 2-nd type by using method of coupling functions as it was described above in Section 4 (in more detail see Chapter 3 in Dorman, 2004). In the third step we need to determine for different NM the mean Rc, λ and λ characterized for this event.

R

THE STEPS OF FORECASTING 4-6

• By using these parameters and experimental data on NM time profiles in the beginning time we cane determine parameters of solar CR non-scattering and diffusive propagation, described in Section 12 (the fourth step). On the basis of determined parameters of solar CR non-scattering and diffusive propagation we then determine expected CR fluxes and pitch-angle distribution for total event in interplanetary space in dependence of time after ejection (the fifth step). In the sixth step by using again method of coupling functions we can determine expected radiation doze which will be obtain during this event inside space probes in interplanetary space, satellites in the magnetosphere, aircrafts at different altitudes and cutoff rigidities, for people and technologies on the ground.

Part 4. The great hazard for the Earth’s civilization from the interaction of a dust-molecular cloud with

the Solar system• From the past we know that the dust from clouds between the Sun and the

Earth leads to decrease of solar irradiation flux with sufficient decreasing of global planetary temperature (on 5-7 in comparison with 0.8 from green effect for the last hundred years).

• The plasma in a moving molecular dust cloud contains a frozen-in magnetic field; this field could modify the stationary galactic cosmic rays (CR) distribution function outside the Heliosphere.

• The change in the CR distribution function can be significant, and it should be possible to identify these changes when the distance between the cloud and the Sun becomes comparable with the dimension of the cloud.

• The continuous observations of a time variation of the CR distribution function for many years should provide the possibility of determining the direction and the speed of the cloud relative to the Sun, as well as its geometry.

• Therefore by CR measurements we may predict its evolution in space and determine whether the dust-molecular cloud will catch the Sun or not.

• In the case of high probability of capture, we could predict the time of the capture and how long the solar system will be inside the cloud.

Part 5. Great radiation hazard for the earth’s civilization from CR particles generated in a

nearby Supernova Explosion (SE)

• From the energetic balance of CR in the Galaxy it was estimated that the full power for CR production is WCR ~ 31040 erg/s.

• Now it is common accepted that the Supernova explosions are the main source of galactic CR.

• At each explosion the average energy transferred to CR is ESE ~ 1050 erg. • From this we can determine the expected frequency of SE in our Galaxy and

in vicinity of the Sun. • We estimate the probability of Supernova explosions inside different

distances from the Sun and expected radiation hazard, and its variation with time.

• We show that in some cases the level of radiation may increases about 1000 times in comparison with present level, and it will be very dangerous for the Earth's civilization and biosphere.

Part 5. Great radiation hazard for the earth’s civilization from CR particles generated in a

nearby Supernova Explosion (SE)

• We show that by high energy CR measurements by ground and underground muon telescopes and low-latitude neutron monitors on the

Earth will be obtain information on the source function and diffusion coefficient in the interstellar space for many years before when real radiation

hazard will be formatted on the Earth. • We show how on the basis of this information we can made exact

forecasting on developing in time of the radiation hazard in space and in the atmosphere on different altitudes and cutoff rigidities (different geomagnetic

latitudes) by using method of coupling functions• On the basis of this information experts must to decide how to prevent the

Earth's civilization (in some cases it will be necessary for people to live underground or in special protected buildings for several hundred years, and

go out only for very short time). • It is important that on the basis of obtained forecast the Earth's civilization

will have time at least several tens years to prepare the life underground and in special protected buildings.

References• Dorman L.I., 1963. Geophysical and Astrophysical

Aspects of Cosmic Rays. North-Holland Publ. Co., Amsterdam (In series "Progress in Physics of Cosmic Ray and Elementary Particles", ed. by J.G. Wilson and S.A. Wouthuysen, Vol. 7), pp 320.

• Dorman L.I., 1974. Cosmic Rays: Variations and Space Exploration. North-Holland Publ.Co., Amsterdam, pp 675.

• Dorman L.I., 1975. Experimental and Theoretical Principles of Cosmic Ray Astrophysics. FIZMATGIZ, Moscow, pp 464.

• Dorman L.I, N. Iucci, and G. Villoresi, 1993. "The use of cosmic rays for continues monitoring and prediction of some dangerous phenomena for the Earth's civilization”, Astrophysics and Space Science, 208, 55-68.

References• Munakata K., J.W. Bieber, S.-I. Yasue, C. Kato, M. Koyama,

S. Akahane, K. Fujimoto, Z. Fujii, J.E. Humble, and M.L. Duldig, 2000 “Precursors of geomagnetic storms observed by the muon detector network”, J. Geophys. Res., 105, No. A12, 27457-27468.

• Lev I. Dorman, 2002. “Solar Energetic Particle Events and Geomagnetic Storms Influence on People’s Health and Technology: Principles of Monitoring and Forecasting of Space Dangerous Phenomena by Using On-Line Cosmic Ray Data”, in Proc. 22nd ISTC Japan Workshop on Space Weather Forecast (ed. Y. Muraki), Nagoya University, Vol. 2, pp. 133-151.

• Lev I. Dorman, 2004. Cosmic Rays in the Earth's Atmosphere and Underground, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht/Boston/London.

• Lev I. Dorman, 2006. Cosmic Ray Interactions, Propagation, and Acceleration in Space Plasmas, Springer, Netherlands.

moscow, iki, 5 june 2012 Космические лучи как фактор и как...

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