mpict cloud computing and ict workforce 20110106 v8

© 2011 IBM Corporation

IBM University Programs World Wide (IBM UP)

The Emerging Pervasive Networked Computing Explosion and its Tremendous Pending Impact

on Society, ICT Workforce, and Technical Education

Presented by: Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected], IBM University Programs World WideCo-created with Waqar Hasan, IBM Academic Initiatives (Western US Region)Smarter Government slides by: Mark E. Dixon, [email protected] (Mid-Pacific ICT) 2011San Francisco, January 6, 2011

Working Together to Build a Smarter Planet

2 © 2011 IBM CorporationIBM UP (University Programs) WW

Today’s Talk

This talk will review the exciting current trends and future directions in ICT (Information and Communication Technologies). The implication for society, ICT workforce, and technical education, including community college ICT educators will be explored. With an anemic economic recovery underway and globalization concerns creating uncertainty, community-minded ICT educators should take heart and continue to be motivated for several key reasons that will be presented. Every cloud has a silver lining, and in the seeds of today's problems lie the driver of tomorrow's growth. The ICT transformation that happened in the private sector is about to happen for the public sector, but in some surprising ways that will increase demand for local ICT education especially. This talk will provide a broad, high-level view of local and global changes, and what will drive the local, regional demand for ICT talent in the future. In many ways, the future for local ICT talent is exceptionally bright, but the nature of ICT talent will need to be re-defined in the process. T-shaped professionals are in demand, with both depth and breadth across both academic disciplines and societal systems, and thereby better prepared as life-long-learners ready to constantly adapt to an accelerating rate of change.


Today’s Talk

Some Highlights of the 2010 Environmental Scan Very Brief History of ICT Trends: Current & future trends Implications: For society, ICT workforce, and technical education Key Trend: ICT in public sector Challenge: More T-shaped professionals needed


2010 Environmental Scan: ICT

CA Stats– 4% of all companies

– 4% of workforce

– 6% of private sector revenue

– 12% of salaries 600 Employers Surveyed

– 86% end-user support roles

– 67% data center support

– 71% on-line/internet suppot

– 58% management

– 51% HW&SW development

– 41% marketing & sales

Industry Specific Enterprise SpecificGenerally Applicable


2010 Environmental Scan: ICT

How will needs change?– Need more employees with ICT skills (self-service)

– Need broader skill sets, higher skill sets

– Need continual progression, currency (life-long learning)

– IT services more important, more expertise needed Improving ICT education

– More real world experience

– More soft skills, team work

– More focus on systems, benefits

– Global work readiness

– Deeper analytic/problem-solving skills

– Broader team-work, communications skills


A Brief History of ICT

1945 Columbia’s Watson Lab 1947-1954 Transistor (G -> S) 1958 Integrated Circuit 1969 First IMP 2 IMP Msg 1971 Microprocessor 2010 1/3 WW Population

with Internet access 2010 Mobile phone subscriptions

hit 5 billion ? 75% WW population with

internet access from mobile phone

In 2001, there were 60 million transistors for every human on the planet ...

In 2011, there is more than 1 billion transistors per human…

… each costing 1/10 millionth of a cent.


Trends: ICT Evolution

INSTRUMENTED

We now have the ability to measure, sense and see the exact condition of practically everything.

INTERCONNECTED

People, systems and objects can communicate

and interact with each other in entirely new

ways.

INTELLIGENT

We can respond to changes quickly and accurately, and get better results

by predicting and optimizing

for future events.

WORKFORCE

MANUFACTURING

SUPPLY CHAIN

CUSTOMERS

TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

IT


Communication$ 3.96 Tn

Transportation$ 6.95 Tn

Leisure / Recreation / Clothing

$ 7.80 Tn

Healthcare$ 4.27 Tn

Food$ 4.89 Tn

Infrastructure$ 12.54 Tn

Govt. & Safety$ 5.21 Tn

Finance$ 4.58 Tn

Electricity$ 2.94 Tn

Education$ 1.36 Tn

Water$ 0.13 Tn

Global system-of-systems$54 Trillion

(100% of WW 2008 GDP)

Same IndustryBusiness SupportIT SystemsEnergy ResourcesMachineryMaterials Trade

Legend for system inputsNote:1. Size of bubbles represents

systems’ economic values2. Arrows represent the strength of

systems’ interaction

Source: IBV analysis based on OECD

Our planet is a complex, dynamic, highly interconnected $54 Trillion system-of-systems (OECD-based analysis)

This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)

Our planet is a complex system-of-systems

1 Tn


Economists estimate, that all systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15 Tn, of which $4 Tn could be eliminated

Global economic value of

System-of-systems

$54 Trillion100% of WW 2008 GDP

Inefficiencies$15 Trillion28% of WW 2008 GDP

Improvement potential


How to read the chart:

For example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).

We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet

Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480

System inefficiency as % of total economic value

Impr

ovem

ent

pote

ntia

l as

% o

f sy

stem

inef

ficie

ncy

Education1,360

Building & Transport Infrastructure

12,540

Healthcare4,270

Government & Safety5,210

Electricity2,940

Financial4,580

Food & Water4,890

Transportation (Goods & Passenger)

6,950

Leisure / Recreation /

Clothing7,800

Communication3,960

Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems

Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions

42%

34%

This chart shows ‘systems‘ (not ‘industries‘)

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%


What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations

A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*)1. Transportation & supply chain

2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment

3. Food & products manufacturing

4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech

5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)

6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*)

7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)

8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting (wealthy) (21%*)

9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)

10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*)

11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)

12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)

13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)

20/10/10

0/19/0

2/7/42/1/1

7/6/11/1/0

5/17/27

1/0/2

24/24/1

2/20/247/10/3

5/2/2

3/3/10/0/0

1/2/2

Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities

* = US Labor % in 2009.

“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”


NAE’s Engineering Grand ChallengesA. Systems that focus on flow of things humans need

1. Transportation & Supply Chain

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

2. Water & Waste/Climate & Green tech

Provide access to clear water

3. Food & Products

Manager nitrogen cycle

4. Energy & Electricity

Make solar energy economical

Provide energy from fusion

Develop carbon sequestration methods

5. Information & Communication Technology

Enhance virtual reality

Secure cyberspace

Reverse engineer the brain

B. Systems that focus on human activity & development6. Buildings & Construction (smart spaces)

Restore and enhance urban infrastructure

7. Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment (tourism)

Enhance virtual reality

8. Banking & Finance/Business & Consulting

9. Healthcare & Family Life

Advance health informatics

Engineer better medicines

Reverse engineer the brain

10. Education & Work Life/Jobs & Entrepreneurship

Advance personalized learning

Engineer the tools of scientific discovery

C. Systems that focus on human governance11. City & Security

Restore and improve urban infrastructure

Secure cyberspace

Prevent nuclear terror

12. State/Region & Development

13. Nation & Rights


Changing Nature of Work

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999

Levy, F, & Murnane, R. J. (2004). The New Division of Labor:How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton University Press.

Based on U.S. Department of Labor’ Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)

Expert Thinking(deep)

Complex Communication(broad)

Routine Manual

Non-routine Manual

Routine Cognitive

Increasing usage of job descriptive terms


What is the skills goal? T-Shaped professionals, ready for T-eamwork!

Many disciplines(understanding & communications)

Many systems(understanding & communications)

Deep in one discipline

(an

alytic th

inkin

g &

pro

ble

m so

lving

)

Deep in one system

(an

alytic th

inkin

g &

pro

ble

m so

lving

)

Many team-oriented service projects completed(resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards)

SSME+D = Service Science, Management, Engineering + Design


How to visualize skills? The Systems-Disciplines MatrixSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities

transportation & supply chain water &

waste

food &products

energy & electricity

building & construction

healthcare& family

retail &hospitality banking

& finance

ICT &cloud

education &work

citysecure

statescale

nationlaws

social sciences

behavioral sciences

management sciences

political sciences

learning sciences

cognitive sciences

system sciences

information sciences

organization sciences

decision sciences

run professions

transform professions

innovate professions

e.g., econ & law

e.g., marketing

e.g., operations

e.g., public policy

e.g., game theory and strategy

e.g., psychology

e.g., industrial eng.

e.g., computer sci

e.g., knowledge mgmt

e.g., stats & design

e.g., knowledge worker

e.g., consultant

e.g., entrepreneur

stake

holders Customer

Provider

Authority

Competitors

resources

People

Technology

Information

Organizations

change History

(Data Analytics)

Future(Roadmap)

value

Run

Transform(Copy)

Innovate(Invent)

Starting Point 1: The Stackholders (As-Is)

Starting Point 2: Their Resources (As-Is)

Change Potential: Thinking (Has-Been & Might-Become)

Value Realization: Doing (To-Be)

disciplines

systems


What is a Service System? What is Service Science? …customers just name <your favorite provider> …researchers just name <your favorite discipline>

Economics & Law

Design/ Cognitive Science Systems

Engineering

OperationsComputer Science/

Artificial Intelligence

Marketing

“a service system is a human-made systemto improve customer-provider interactions,or value-cocreation between stakeholders”

“service science isthe interdisciplinary study of

service systems &value-cocreation”


Holistic ICT-enabled Service Systems

Examples: Nations, States, Cities, Universities, Luxury Hotels, Cruise Ships, Households

Subsystems: Transportation, Water, Food, Energy, Communications, Buildings, Retail, Finance, Health, Education, Governance, etc.

Definition: A service system that can support its primary populations, independent of all external service systems, for some period of time, longer than a month if necessary, and in some cases, indefinitely

Balance independence with interdependence, without becoming overly dependent

Nation

State/Province

City/Region

University HospitalLuxuryResortHotels

Family(household)

Person(professional)

18 © 2010 IBM CorporationIBM University Programs (IBM UP) WW

A. Flow of things1. Transportation: Traffic congestion; accidents and injury

2. Water: Access to clean water; waste disposal costs

3. Food: Safety of food supply; toxins in toys, products, etc.

4. Energy: Energy shortage, pollution

5. Information: Equitable access to info and comm resourcesB. Human activity & development

6. Buildings: Inefficient buildings, environmental stress (noise, etc.)

7. Retail: Access to recreational resources

8. Banking: Boom and bust business cycles, investment bubbles

9. Healthcare: Pandemic threats; cost of healthcare

10. Education: High school drop out rate; cost of educationC. Governing

11. Cities: Security and tax burden

12. States: Infrastructure maintenance and tax burden

13. Nations: Justice system overburdened and tax burden

Cities as Holistic Service Systems: All the systems

Example: Singapore


Universities as Holistic Service Systems: All the systems

A. Flow of things1. Transportation: Traffic congestion; parking shortages.

2. Water: Access costs; reduce waste

3. Food: Safety; reduce waste.

4. Energy: Access costs; reduce waste

5. Information: Cost of keeping up best practices.B. Human activity & development

6. Buildings: Housing shortages; Inefficient buildings

7. Retail: Access and boundaries. Marketing.

8. Banking: Endowment growth; Cost controls

9. Healthcare: Pandemic threat. Operations.

10. Education: Cost of keeping up best practices..C. Governing

11. Cities: Town & gown relationship.

12. States: Development partnerships..

13. Nations: Compliance and alignment.


Luxury Hotels as Holistic Service Systems: All the systemshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hm7MeZlS5fo


Why Higher Ed Matters: % GDP and % Top 500

Japan

ChinaGermany

France

United KingdomItaly

Russia SpainBrazilCanada

IndiaMexico AustraliaSouth Korea

NetherlandsTurkey

Sweden

y = 0,7489x + 0,3534R² = 0,719

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

% g

loba

l G

DP

% top 500 universities

Strong Correlation (2009 Data): National GDP and University Rankingshttp://www.upload-it.fr/files/1513639149/graph.html


Higher Education:Research Centers & Real-World Systems

CITIES/METRO REGIONS:Universities Key to Long-Term Economic Development

Accelerating Innovation: Create Ideal or Reference Models


Edu-Impact.Com

“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”


Urban-Age.Net

Currently, the world’s top 30 cities generate 80% of the world’s wealth.The Urban Age

For the first time in history more than 50% the earth’s population live in cities - by 2050 it will be 75%The Endless City


Population growth per hour in major cities


Smarter Government

Smarter Local Government: What's being done...

Seeding the Local Government Community Cloud

Discussion – Next Steps

Next Wave is ICT for Public Sector

Thinking “Outside In”

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."

- Albert Einstein


There are now 6.8 Billion people on the planet…

Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”


Systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15T...

Global economic value of

System-of-systems


Inefficiencies


Improvement potential


How to read the chart:

As an example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).

We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems

planet...

Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries.

System inefficiency as % of total economic value

Improvem

ent potential as %

of system inefficiency

Education1,360

Building & Transport Infrastructure

12,540

Healthcare4,270

Government & Safety5,210

Electricity2,940

Financial4,580

Food & Water4,890

Transportation (Goods & Passenger)

6,950

Leisure / Recreation / Clothing 7,800

Communication3,960

Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems

Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions

42%

34%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

...of which $4 Tn could be eliminated*....


The world will get smarter…because it must...

40-70 % of electrical energy is lost due to inefficiencies in the grid

In one small business district in Los Angeles alone, cars burned 47,000 gallons of gasoline looking for parking

Consume products and retail industries lose about $40 billion annually due to inefficient supply chains.

In a world where people are undernourished, $48 billion worth of food is thrown away each year in the U.S.

Our healthcare “system” can’t link from diagnosis to drug discovery, providers, insurers, employers and patients.

Financial markets spread risk but can’t track it; this has lead to undermined confidence and uncertainty

Weather-related events inflicted $1 trillion in damage from 1980-2003

Only 22% of reserves are extracted from the world’s existing oil wells.

Global water usage has increased 6X since the 1900s. Today 1 in 5 people lacks safe drinking water.

With poor urban governance, life expectancy within developing countries can be as low as 35 years.

“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells


We need to build a smarter planet…

…how can we start with smarter government?

Instrumented Interconnected Intelligent

Create a citizen-centered experience by improving citizen

and business services.

Embrace government transparency and accountability by

managing resources effectively and

efficiently.

Possibilities to improve our quality of life and way of living

+ +=


The reality of living in a globally integrated world...

Governments in deficit worldwide – reduced revenues / spending cuts

Local governments particularly stressed by the revenue/cost of service gap

Growth in demand for government services is continual

Sources of revenue depend on economic activity

Information/device explosion

The “New Normal”...

“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge


Looking to the Future: The “New Normal”

Economic recession and future uncertainties

Energy shortfalls and erratic commodity prices

Slowing superpowers and emerging economies

Complex value chains and empowered citizens

“...the Great Recession that began in 2008 was not your grandmother’s standard recession. This was not just a deep economic slowdown that we can recover from and then blithely go back to our old ways—with just a little less leverage, a little less risk, and a little more regulation. No, this Great Recession was something much more important. It was our warning heart attack.”

- Thomas Friedman – Hot, Flat and Crowded


Is government’s digital infrastructure ready?

2x

Data center energy use

doubling every 5 years

69X

Storage growth will increase 69X this

decade.

6X

Server growth will increase 6X this

decade.

78%

78% of data centers were built

before the dot com era and are

technically obsolete.

50%

50% of customers experience server

or storage downtime as a direct result of

power and cooling issues.

33%

33% of consumers notified of a

security breach will terminate their relationship with the organization

they perceived as responsible.

34© 2009 IBM Corporation

The way the world works is changing… and leaders must lead through the unknown...

Gap between envisioned change and past success at managing it.

Public sector leaders anticipate substantial change ahead.

23%

8 in 10

Source: 2008 IBM CEO Study (Before the Financial Crisis)


California Counties

Population Density is in major metropolitan and coastal areas...

Max Density: 9.3K / sq mile - CCSFMin Density: 2 / sq mile – Alpine CountyAvg Density: 240 / sq mile

Recent suburban sprawl moving inland and replacing agricultural land – a disturbing trend for feeding Smarter Cities...

Note the coastal counties from San Diego to Sonoma, which follow the California Mission Trail ( El Camino Real – 'The Royal Road'). All missions were roughly a day's ride apart. Most of the counties were named for the mission in their geography.

Note further the central counties from San Francisco east to Lake Tahoe. Their formation follows the topology around major rivers coming from Sierra Nevada mountains - first for gold claims, then for water rights.

Other counties reflect desert and mountain restrictions relative to topology, natural resource usage (agriculture) and population density


Local Governments: Cities & Counties

Local Government is where the actual Service Delivery happens...both physically and digitally.

Approximately 3,000 Counties in the US (Source: National Association of Counties - NACO)

Approximately 20,000 Cities in the US (Source: League of Cities)

US Census Data (2000): approximately 10K cities, 4.3K towns and 3.7K villages =18,000

63 of the 273 (23%) US cities over 100K population are in California – over 16M people8 of the Top 50 cities (population) are in California58 Counties and 480 Cities in CaliforniaCity and County of San Francisco the only combined local government Essential differentiator: Counties do not have revenue generation authority...they rely on the state for general fund revenues...counties can only exercise cost containment capabilities.

“Think global, act local.” – Patrick Geddes, early 1900's

Midsized businesses represent about 65% of the global GDP and 90% of its workforce. - Harish Krishnamurthy, IBM VP GMU Midmarket


California the Unique

California Budget Deficit for 2010/2011 = $21 Billion

California gets $0.78 in Fed funding for every $1 it pays the Federal govt (Rank: 43 of 50)*

California Budget Surplus if at federal tax parity = $68B ($313B - $224B - $21B)

Legislature approved taking back $1.9B from local governments in 2009

Counties do not have broad revenue generating authority like cities

Over 2300 special districts (Transit, Sewage, Pests, Libraries, Harbor, Healthcare, Parks, etc.)85% single function – 293 Water Districts / 172 Fire Districts

Community Service Districts are multi-function.

Most populous state – 37 Million (2009 est)

Most ethnically diverse

8th largest economy in the world (similar to Spain or Italy)

13% of US GDP – $1.85 Trillion

World's largest human migration – the Gold Rush

Leads nation in 75 crop and livestock commodities

Significant production of 250+ agricultural commodities

Provides over 50% of the vegetables, fruits and nuts in the USA

“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper

* http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/266.html


Local Government Collaboration for a Smarter Planet

Contact: Mark Dixon ([email protected]) – STG Systems Architect – Public Sector

Smarter Local GovernmentReinventing Local Government in California and the USA

Smarter Government

Smarter Water Smarter Analytics

Smarter Cities Smarter Food

Smarter Transportation

Smarter Buildings

Economics

Innovation

Integration


Thank-You! Questions?

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerDirector, IBM University Programs (IBM UP) [email protected]

“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU

“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson

“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer

“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells

“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov“Think global, act local.” – Geddes

40

Time

ECOLOGY

14BBig Bang

(NaturalWorld)

10KCities

(Human-MadeWorld)

Sun

writing(symbols and scribes)

Earth

written laws

bacteria(uni-cell life)

sponges(multi-cell life)

money(coins)

universities

clams (neurons)tribolites (brains)

printing press (books)steam engine200M

bees (socialdivision-of-labor)

60

transistor

Where is the “Real Science” in Service Science?In the sciences of the natural and human-made worlds…Evolving hierarchical-complexity of populations of things