mrea energy fair 2015 - midwest solar market potential
TRANSCRIPT
Midwest Solar Market PotentialAbhilash “Abhi” Kantamneni| Michigan Technological University
Houghton Winters
Source: Mining Journal
Source: Mining Gazette
Source: Michigan Tech Alumni
Source: Mining Journal
Source: boniashburn.com
OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
$0.24
$0.21$0.21
$0.16$0.16
$0.15$0.15$0.15$0.14
$0.14$0.14$0.13
$0.11$0.11$0.11
$0.10$0.10
MI Average Residential Electric Rates 2013[$/kWh]
MI Average: $0.14/kWhSource: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates
by State (2013)State Average Price
[$/kWh]Hawaii $0.37
Houghton $0.21-$0.24New York $0.19
Alaska $0.19Connecticut $0.18
Vermont $0.18New Hampshire $0.17
California $0.16New England $0.16
Middle Atlantic $0.16Massachusetts $0.16
New Jersey $0.16Michigan $0.15
Source: www.eia.gov
Michigan Tech KRC Photovoltaic Research Center
Location: Tree Cover and Solar Window
Image Source: www.solarfeeds.com
Best Summer Angle: 30*
Best Winter Angle: 60*
Best Average Angle: 47*
Advantages of High Module Tilt: Albedo
Source: nsidc.org
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 1061211361511661811962112262412562712863013163313463610
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Solar Irradiation and Albedo
S_Horizontal (W/m^2) Albedo (W/m^2)
Day of the Year
W/m
^2
Source: MTU KRC
Advantages of High Module Tilt: Snow Shedding
4 188 372 556 740 924 11081292147616601844202822122396258027642948313233163500368438680
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
PV System Output Under Snowy Conditions
45* 30* 15*
Hours since 12:00 Am Nov 1 2013
Ener
gy P
rodu
ced
(Wh)
Shedding from 45*
Source: MTU KRC
Source: MTU KRC Data
Source: www.nrel.gov
Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day*Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh
Source: pveducation.org
*Source: MTU KRC Data
Source: pveducation.org
California Average = 6 Peak Sun Hours/Day*Energy = 1kW*6h = 6kWh
Source: www.nrel.gov
Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
Source: Michigan Public Service Commission
Excess Generation
Excess Consumption
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Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•6000 [kWh] (source)Annual Consumption :
•6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh]Daily Consumption:
•3.8 [h]Average Daily Sun Hours
Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day*Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh
Source: pveducation.org
*Source: MTU KRC Data
Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
• Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Size
• System Size*Cost Per kW = 5.4*$3,500 =$18,900System Cost
• 30% of system costs = $18,900 – 30%*18,900 = $13,448
Federal Tax Rebate
Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton
•Energy*Rates = 6000*0.21 = $1,260
Annual Savings
•System Costs / Annual Savings = 11 years
Payback Period
Source: www.nrel.gov
Utility Fuel Source SummaryFuel Source USA OCREA UPPCO Region
Coal 39.10% 63.80% 54.11% 59.43%
Nuclear 19.18% 23.10% 23.08% 25.36%
Gas 27.57% 5.50% 8.90% 9.77%
Oil 0.67% 0.10% 0.50% 0.55%
Hydroelectric 7.07% 3.40% 9.55% 0.65%
Biofuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.49%
Biomass 0.92% 0.10% 0.41% 0.45%
Wind 4.11% 2.80% 2.50% 2.75%
Wood 0.48% 0.10% 0.44% 0.49%
Other 0.71% 1.10% 0.50% 0.44%
Solar 0.20% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02%
Source: OCREA Fuel Mix ReportSource: MPSC Regional Average Fuel Mix Disclosure
Source: EIA Total Power Industry Fuel Sources
Currently all MI utilities are on track to meet RES Compliance*
Phased integration of renewables 50% cheaper than new coal generation facilities.
*Source: MPSC Report on RES Compliance
*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source
Impact of MI PA 295
Benefits of Renewables Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth
Report on Green Jobs says renewable energy sector job creation = 3% of all private sector employment in state
International Energy Agency Report on Energy Security says renewable energy systems reduce supply disruptions and reliance on imported fuel.
Actual Quote: “The only green that matters, is the color of my $$$$$”
(Obviously, not a philosopher)
Simple ROI Calculation
PopulationAggregate MW Solar
People
Per Pane
lHought
on 30,000 0.003 2,500Californ
ia 38,041,430 1892.05 5Texas 26,059,203 185.47 35
Florida 19,317,568 93.91 51New
Mexico 2,085,538 151.7 3Arizona 6,553,255 775.59 2
Large majority of installed net metered customer generation is Solar. Source: MPSC Annual Net Metering Report 2014
Figure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installed CapacityFigure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installations
Growth of Solar in Michigan
Factors Influencing Solar Adoption Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al]
If consumers cannot identify the relative advantage of solar power over their current sources of power, it is unlikely that adoption will follow. [Falers et al]
Economic intentional variables, as well as variables indicating basic knowledge and actual environmental behavior in the past, are strong predictors of the probability of adoption. [Arkesteijn et al]
The installation of one additional solar photovoltaic rooftop project within the past six months in a given area increased the average number of installations within a half mile radius by 44% [Graziano et al.]
Steps to Solar How much am I consuming?
Reading your electricity bill
Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my location?
How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments?
How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates increase?
Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over time?
Environmental Impact?
Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?
Steps to Solar How much am I consuming?
Reading your electricity bill
Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my location?
How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments?
How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates increase?
Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over time?
Environmental Impact?
Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?
2013
2014
2015
Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:- ~30kW
Summer 2014: 60kW added
Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
$0.24
$0.21$0.21
$0.16$0.16
$0.15$0.15$0.15$0.14
$0.14$0.14$0.13
$0.11$0.11$0.11
$0.10$0.10
MI Average Residential Electric Rates 2013[$/kWh]
MI Average: $0.14/kWhSource: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rates
PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rate Increases
OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
116%
94%107%
48%
86%
49%73%72%79%
40%42%
76%
29%39%43%61%73%
MI Average Residential Electric Rate Increase 2001-2013
MI Average: 74%
Source: MPSC Utility Rates Summary
PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption
MI Average: 8MWh/Year
OCREA
UPPCO
WEPCO
DTE ELECTRIC
CONSUMERS
CHERRYLAND
THUMBXCEL
AEP
4.5 5.1 5.85.46.8 7
.2 7.9
6.48.110.0
8.4
11.611.8
8.0 7.38.3
11.1
MI Average Residential Electric Consumption 2013 [MWH/year]
Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013
Utility Rank by rates Rank by rate Increase
Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank
OCREA 1 1 1 1ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2
UPPCO 3 2 4 3WEPCO 5 4 6 4
PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9
MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10XCEL 15 13 8 11
CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12WPS 16 10 12 12AEP 17 7 15 14
TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16
THUMB 13 17 17 17
PV Residential Solar Market Potential
Utility Rank by rates
Rank by rate Increase
Rank by Consumption
Aggregate Rank
Rank by % Net-Generation
OCREA 1 1 1 1 1ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 2
UPPCO 3 2 4 3 4WEPCO 5 4 6 4 11
PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 5ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 6DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 7GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 8CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 12
MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 9XCEL 15 13 8 11 14
CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 N/AWPS 16 10 12 12 12AEP 17 7 15 14 13
TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 N/ACLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 10
THUMB 13 17 17 17 3
PV Residential Solar Market Potential
City of Lake Crystal - (MN) $0.15Princeton Public Utils Comm $0.15North Itasca Electric Coop Inc $0.15Arrowhead Electric Coop, Inc $0.15
People's Cooperative Services $0.14
East Central Energy $0.14Northwestern Wisconsin Elec
Co $0.14Tri-County Electric Coop $0.14
Steele-Waseca Cooperative Electric $0.14
Mille Lacs Energy Cooperative $0.13
New Ulm Public Utilities Comm $0.13
City of Saint Peter $0.13North Star Electric Coop, Inc $0.13
Lake Country Power $0.13South Central Electric Assn $0.13
City of Elk River $0.13BENCO Electric Cooperative $0.13Cooperative L&P Assn Lake
County $0.13City of Chaska $0.13
Freeborn-Mower Coop Services $0.13
Contact Information
Abhilash Kantamneni
221 Rekhi HallMichigan Tech1400 Townsend DriveHoughton MI
www.Abhilash.mewww.SolarizeHoughton.org
Bonus Slides!
Cabbages and Solar?
Cabbages and Solar?
Sell Price: $0.21 each
Buying Price: $0.03 each
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Electric Utility Markets are a “Zero-Sum Game”
Rates = $$Generation + $$Transmission + $$Distribution + $$Administration + $$Return on Equity
Working Group Recommendati
ons
Expand Net Metering to state wide
50MW
Credit on net generation
Credit on generation
Source: MPSC Solar Working Group Report, June 2014
(VOS): Value of Solar
VOS proposed by Michigan Utility DTE
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Organic cabbages?
HealthierLocally grownNo new roadsNo large farms
(VOS): Value of Solar
VOS used in Minnesota
(VOS): Value of Solar
VOS used in Austin, Texas
Storage: Generation Shifting
Credit: climatetechwiki.org
Storage: Load Shifting
Credit: Scientific American
Reliable, affordable and sustainable energy for all
Goals:
Source: Solar Energy Industry Forecast: U.S. DOE
Public Awareness
Technological Maturity
Regulatory Action
Legislative Support
Market Drivers
How to Bring Change: Homeboy Solar Industries• Increases
Sustainability• Reduced Prison
Recidivism• Saves taxpayer
money
Husky Pride! Solarize Houghton
Solar Market Penetration in Houghton
2013:- ~30kW
Summer 2014: 60kW added
Fall 2015: +200kW expected.
Solarizing Houghton (Summer 2015)
Buying Club
Workshop
Public Seminar
s
DIY Kits
Source: MTU KRC Data
Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total
Summer Production: 77 Sq. miles
Winter Production: 1,732 Sq. miles
