M.sc. Snježana Fijan-Parlov

EKONERG, Atmospheric Protection Dpt.

24-25 June 2005

DG JRC

Ispra (VA), Italy

CROATIAN NATIONAL SYSTEM FOR ESTIMATING GHG FROM AGRICULTURE

Chronology of Inventory Preparation

GHG emission inventory (1990-1995) was prepared in 2000, in the framework of 1NC • In-depth review of 1NC, including GHG inventory, is done

(March 2002).

First National Inventory Report (NIR) for 1990-2001 (including CRF for all years) was prepared in September 2003.

NIR for 1990-2002 was prepared and submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat, first time in appropriate time (15 April 2004).

National Lead Stakeholders

Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction (MEPPPC) is responsible for GHG inventory preparation (National Focal Point).• reporting to international bodies

National Lead Institution (EKONERG)• EKONERG (Atmospheric Protection Dpt.) prepares GHG

inventory, based on contract with Ministry.

• EKONERG is responsible for co-ordination/compilation of inventory, archiving of relevant data, documentation of activity data, emission factors and methods used, validation & verification of data and compilation of report.

Arrangement of long-term contract for inventory preparation is one of the main goal in creation of sustainable inventory process.

National Steering Committee

Chair: Višnja Grgasović Members: representative of

UNDP country office, government Ministries, Statistics and data

Statistics (CBS) Energy Institute (EIHP)

Ministry of Interior Affairs (MIA) Other data providers

National Lead Institution: EKONERG - Energy Research and Environmental Protection Institute

Natioanal Institutions

Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning

and Construction

Croatian Environment Agency

provision institutions

Institutional Arrangements

* In near future, Agency will be responsible for GHG inventory preparation and EKONERG should be thematic center for air (together with some other institutions).

* National Steering Committee was established in the framework of Regional Project: “Capacity Building for Improving the Quality of Greenhouse Gas Inventories”

Scope of National Inventory

National Inventory Report is based on:• UNFCCC guidance on reporting and review (FCCC/CP/1999/7 &

FCCC/CP/2002/8)

• IPCC methodology (Revised 1996 & GPG Guidelines)

Detailed description of Inventory by Sectors and by GHG is provided in NIR.

Inventory covered: • all relevant sources and sinks in the framework of IPCC

methodology

• main anthropogenic direct GHG: CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs (SF6 wasn’t estimated); indirect GHG: CO, NOx, NMVOC; and SO2

GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture

The agricultural activities contribute directly to the emission of greenhouse gases through various processes. The following sources have been identified to make a more complete break down in the emission calculation:

Livestock: enteric fermentation (CH4) and manure management (CH4, N2O)

Agricultural soils (N2O)

GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture

The emission generated by burning the agricultural residues was not included in calculation because its activity is prohibited by low in Republic of Croatia. There are no ecosystems in Republic of Croatia that could be considered natural savannas or rice fields; consequently, no greenhouse gas emissions therefore exist for this sub-category.

IPCC methodology (Tier 1) and default EFs were mainly used.

Country specifics:• no country specific EF

Data gaps:• manure management statistics

GHG Emission Calculations from agriculture

Overview of activity data

Annual population of livestock (decline 1995-2002) Manure system (additional research needed) Synthetic fertilisers (additional research needed) Crop production data Area of histosols

National Institutions

Data Sources: • Central Bureau of Statistics (statistical data),

• Faculty of agriculture, Zagreb

• FAO data base

ADDITIONAL INTERCALCULATION

PREPARED DATA

...

EMISSIONFACTORS

Statisticaldata

EMISSION INVENTORY MODEL - IPCC SOFTWARE

Industrydata ...

ORIGINAL DATA

COPERT

FORESTRY

KEOFORMS

ENERGYBALANCE

(EIHP)

...

IPCCSPREADSHEETS

PSEUDO IPCCSPREADSHEET

REPORTING

Specific formulasIntercalculations

COPY INPUT NUMBERS

ALL DATA ARCHIVED ELECTRONICALY OR AS A HARD COPY

Description of GHG Emission Calculation System

Trend of Total GHG Emissions/Removals by Sectors

CO2- eq (Gg)

-10000

-6000

-2000

2000

6000

10000

14000

18000

22000

26000

30000

34000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

LUC&F

Waste

Agriculture

Industrial Processes

Energy

From 1995 to 2002, GHG emissions increased with average annual rate of 3.3%. If the emissions will continue to increase with this rate, emission Kyoto limit will be exceeded in 2005.

Total GHG emissions: in 1990 – 31.6 mil. t CO2-eqin 2002 – 28.0 mil. t CO2-eqEnergy sector: 67-76%

CO2 removals by sinks: 9 mil. t in 2002

Share of gasses in Total GHG Emission - 2002

CO2

76.8%

CH4

12.3%

N2O10.7%

HFCs, PFCs & SF6

0.2%

Trend of CH4 Emissions

CH4 (Gg)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Waste

Agriculture

Industrial Processes

Energy

Total CH4 emissions: in 1990 – 182 ktin 2002 – 163 kt

Share (%) 1990 2002

Energy 37 41Industrial Processes 0 0Agriculture 41 26Waste 21 33

Total CH4 100 100

Trend of N2O Emissions

N2O (Gg)

0

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

1011

12

13

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Waste

Agriculture

Industrial Processes

Energy

Total N2O emissions: in 1990 – 12.5 ktin 2002 – 9.7 kt

Share (%) 1990 2002

Energy 2 6Industrial Processes 24 23Agriculture 70 68Waste 4 3

Total N2O 100 100

Key Sources Analyses, Tier 1IPCC Category Source GHG Level/Trend

ENERGY    

Stationary Sources - Coal CO2 Level, Trend

Stationary Sources – Liquid Fuel CO2 Level, Trend

Stationary Sources – Natural Gas CO2 Level, Trend

Mobile Sources – Road Transport CO2 Level, Trend

Mobile Sources – Domestic Aviation Transport CO2 Trend

Mobile Sources – Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing CO2 Level

Mobile Sources – Road Transport N2O Trend

Fugitive Sources – Natural Gas and Oil CH4 Level, Trend

Natural Gas Scrubbing* - CPS Molve CO2 Level, Trend

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES    

Cement Production CO2 Level, Trend

Ammonia Production CO2 Level

Nitric Acid Production N2O Level, Trend

AGRICULTURE    

Enteric Fermentation CH4 Level, Trend

Manure Management N2O Trend

Direct N2O Emission from Agricultural Soils N2O Level, Trend

Indirect N2O Emission from Nitrogen Used in Agr. N2O Level

WASTE

Solid Waste Disposal Sites CH4 Level, Trend

Uncertainty Analyses, Tier 1

High reliability level (uncertainty: < 10 %) CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions from Natural Gas Scrubbing CO2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Cement and Ammonia Production)

Medium reliability level (uncertainty: 10 to 50 %) CH4 Emissions from Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Lime Production, Limestone and Dolomite Use, Soda Ash Production and Use, Iron and Steal Production) CH4 Emissions from Industrial Processes (Other Chemical Production) CH4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation CH4 Emissions from Manure Management N2O Emissions from Industrial Processes (Nitric Acid Production) N2O Emissions from Human Sewage

Low reliability level (uncertainty: > 50 %) N2O Emissions from Fuel Combustion CH4 Fugitive Emissions from Oil and Natural Gas HFC Emissions from HFC Consumption N2O Emissions from Manure Management N2O Emissions from Agricultural Soils CH4 Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites According to our conservative assessment, the total uncertainty of GHG emission for 2002 was estimated at 36.1 percent, while the uncertainty of emission trend (1990-2002) was estimated at 6.7 percent.

Major problems

Quality of activity data EF

No research projects at the moment in the country that will eventually improve national data

Country specific data

Design of new National Inventory System

NationalReporting

System (KEO)Central Data Base

StatisticData

EnergyBalanceSystem

OtherSources ofInformation

NationalDataBase

Energy

Industrial processes

Waste

Agriculture

Forestry

Other

Counties

Municipalities

Pointsources

Collectivesources

Software tools fordata collection, management

emission calculationand reporting

Towns

Counties

National

UNFCCC(IPCC, CRF)

CLRTAP(UNECE)

EMEP

EUROSTAT

EEA/ATC

Regulation and guidelines

(CollectER)

Reporting

* Establishment of new National Inventory System is in progress.

Thank You for Your Attention!