Murder in New Orleans 1994-2011: a public health analysis

Dr. Peter ScharfResearch ProfessorTulane University School of Public Health

and Tropical Medicine Pscharf@tulane.edu504-710-5625 April 5, 2011

New Orleans had more than 60 murders in the First Quarter of 2011This is an increase of 25% from 2010, a year in which

New Orleans led the US in per capita murder risks.

A starting thought:“You cannot change what you do not understand“ Dr.

Stanley Erickson, NIJThe role of Public Health in Public Policy Discourse and Action-

Murder in NOLA

I. Questions: 1-What is the source of/cure for New Orleans Murders?

Question: 2-What is source of health disparity re: NOLA murders?

Question: 3-What to do?-Public Health based alternatives

II. Source points A brief “History” of murder in New Orleans-1994-2011

424 murders(1994) The “Rabbit” Antoinette Franks:

'A Police Death Squad-Len Davis

Taylor’s Children, The Antoinettes and Mc Nuggets

Reforms(1996)Louisiana Pizza Kitchen

MurdersPenningtonMarch on City HallSalary increasesSaturationCOMPSTAT

Reduction in murders following Reforms

Murders from 1994-1999 decrease 62%

424 to 161 murdersDouble national decline in

murder rate Dr. Kevin Unter “Melding

Police and Policy to : A Study of the New Orleans Police Department”

050

100150200250300350400450

1994 1996 1998

Murdersper 100kTop 30

Losing Focus: 2000-2005Gradual rise in murder risks

through storm (August 2005)TP “Murder” articles (2004)“Caveman” HS Gym Class

MurderBroken Windows and 100,000

arrests

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2002 2004

MurdersPer 100KTop 30

The Divide: Hurricane KatrinaPreparationsRogue NOPD OfficersThe Third District Voyage to

Baton RogueHeroes, victims and

leadership-Enduring stigma: Glover and

Danziger Bridge

The Great Murder Diaspora “Gangs of New Orleans” Scharf: “This is one of the most

interesting experiments in crime we’ve ever seen. Without effective courts, corrections, or rehabilitation, we have reduced the crime rate by 100 percent.” B Stupid HarrisTo Houston and Back-

commuter murderers

Meltdown: January 2007Nagin (Riley) administrationHelen Hill MurderMarch on City Hall, January,

2007Political Responses

“Daylight” -Mitch Landrieu and Ronnie Serpas and anomalyThe Promise of the 2010

Mayor’s Election and Chief Appointment

Hard Truths:The Resistant culture of

the NOLA murderersNOPD 65 Point PlanConsent Decree bluesWhat’s next?

Realities-Dope Wars: Victim Prior Contacts with Criminal Justice

Criminal History? Yes 73.0% No 27.0 % Of those with history?Violent priors 58.2 %Property priors 54.8 %Drug priors 67.8 %

Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

Offenders have substantial prior involvement with CJ systemCriminal History? Yes 83.3% No 13.7 %Unknown 2.9 %Of those with history:Violent priors 58.8 %Property priors 55.3 %Drug Priors 57.6 %

Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

Constraint: Psychological Portrait of Young NOLA Murderers

Three years + lagging in Reading ScoresGangsCulture of violenceLow problem-solving abilityImmature moral reasoningPoor social and conflict-resolution SkillsArmed

II . Sources of DisparityCity Perspective: The homicide rate in New Orleans is substantially higher than the rate in the nation, comparable-sized cities.

The rate of homicide in New Orleans was more than 10 times the national average and more than 4 times the rate for cities of a similar size.

Rate increased by 25% in first quarter 2011

Victims: Race and Gender of Victims?-African Americans at risk

Gender Male 86.5 %%Female 13.0 %Transgender 0.5 %Race Asian 1.0 %Black 91.5 %Hispanic 2.0 %White 5.0 %Other 0.5 %• Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et

al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

African-African American offenders are over-represented, relative to race/gender

Gender Male 95.1 %Female 4.9 %Race Asian 1.0 %Black 97.1 %Hispanic 1.0 %White 1.0 %Crime in New Orleans:  Analyzing Crime Trends and New Orleans’ Response to Crime.” Welford, et al, Bureau of Justice Assistance, March 2011

Poverty as source of murder-risk disparity

17.6 % of the New Orleans population live below the poverty line compared to 13.2 % nationally.

In New Orleans, 38% of children live in poverty. (17% U.S.).

Role of Narco-Economy in many neighborhoods

Underground economy and homicide risksLink between poverty and homicide in NOLACensus snapshots, 2011

Education: as source of murder risk disparityPublic school students in New Orleans are

overwhelmingly poor. 83% of students receive free or reduced lunches.

New Orleans overall population is approximately 63% minority, while public school students are nearly 95% minority- primarily African-American.

In the RSD-run and RSD charter schools, the majority of students are well below grade level.

Link between education and homicide:US Department of Education

Health Status as source of murder risk disparityInjuriesSexual AbuseGirl with one eyeFASSexuality and murderUntreated learning disabilitiesPepsi and “Twinkie Bar “BreakfastsLinks between health(SDH) and homicide:

Other theories regarding disparities and raceInstitutional Racism, in Criminal Justice System(DOJ

Civil Rights Division)Differentials in invocation of the Police(Crutchfield)-

African Americans in Study Called Police frequentlyDigital Labeling and the Gulag- electronic job barrierAccess to Lawyers, Record RemovalDrug Trade DifferentialsDueling-urban gladiators

End Result “The drug trade is a virulent part of the

NOLA underground economy which has no legitimate civil/criminal justice system for disputes and offenses to be addressed resulting in vigilante justice and death” –Earl Williams, Hollygrove

IV. What to do?-10 public health ideas useful to to reduce homicide risksPreliminary Thoughts: what do we know?

High Rate of Homicide RiskHigh Rate of Disparities in MurderHigh Social cost:$1,000,000.00 per murder,

$2,000,000 .00 per lifelong injuryWhere do we intervene? Do we know cause? Do we

understand prevention measures?Short term vs. longer termIndividual vs. community strategies

1) Develop an Integrated City Plan with Performance Measures

Scope of Plan ResultsOutputs(Activities)Outcomes(Results)Efficiencies(Savings)Example: 50% murder

reduction in three years or increase RSD average reading scores by one year by 2014.

2) Review what worked in other citiesHomicides fall in large American cities The long-term trend is particularly striking in the

nation's three largest cities —New York Chicago and Los Angeles. Homicides in New York have dropped 79% during the past two decades — from 2,245 in 1990 to 471 in 2009, the last full year measured. Chicago is down 46% during that period, from 850 to 458. Los Angeles is down 68%, from 983 to 312.

USA TODAY December 29, 2010

3) Adopt Evidence Based Violent Crime Control Strategies: ART, MRT, MST, etc.Aggression Replacement TherapyMulti Systemic TherapyMoral Recognition TherapyEtc.

4) Break down organizational silos and create city- system), not agency strategiesA public health strategy requires integration of effort:

Successful cities utilized housing, health, schooling, corrections, education as components of an integrated plan.

No one component of government is capable of arresting murder risks on their own

Silos may be major cause of failure in stemming murder risks

5) Begin programs targeted at highest risk youth

Attempt to break down the gang culture haunting neighborhoods in New Orleans

Work to offer educational and vocational alternatives to drug and gang life

Work to provide trained mentors and alternative to gang peers.

6) Hold all agencies accountable for murder reduction related targets Every City Agency needs to develop a component of

the integrated city plan and be responsible for its execution.

Reduce gaps in education, housing, job access. Success in meeting city milestones needs to be

measured by valid performance measures.

7) Try something new! (with a track record)Maritime InstituteNew Boston, Los Angeles, Chicago Ceasefire ModelsEvidence based mentoring strategiesNew evidenced based youth job training and match

initiativesStreet gun eradication programsBuild upon evidence based findings

8) Assess to see if what we thought worked actually workedInitiate RCS studies related to murder prevention and

response strategiesHone strategies to reduce violent crime based upon dataCreate prevention systems not programs-Collins(Good

to Great)Celebrate and build upon each other’ s successes

9) Integrate short terms, intermediate and long term crime control strategies Break the drug gangs’ hold on the city with pro-active

intelligence led policingWork with marginal participants in gang life to find

jobs and recommit to educationBuild out longer term “children’s zone” educational and

vocational opportunitiesPublic Safety and Prevention are both core components

of a successful strategy

10) Failure is not an optionDr. Steven Edwards (Bureau of Justice Assistance)

“ I get everything about New Orleans, except for one thing……”

“_____ _____ _______”

Thank you: your turn

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