Myths and Realities: Structural Change in

U.S. Labor Markets and the Great Recession

Peter B. DoeringerDepartment of Economics, Boston University

IILS Round Table on The Global Job Crisis: Emerging PerspectivesInternational Labour Office, Geneva, 22 February 2013

I am grateful to the Economic Policy Institute for making a number of graphics available from The State of Working America (12th Edition)

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Symptoms of the Great Recession

Myth or Reality During the Great Recession

Public Policies and Priorities

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Symptoms of the Great Recession

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Unusual Job Losses

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Unemployed Workers and Job Openings, By Industry, 2011 (in millions)

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Long-term Unemployment, 1948–2011

38.1% January 2013

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Myth or Reality During the Great Recession?

A university degree is no longer worth the investment

Women fared better than men in the recession

Good jobs have disappeared

Private welfare benefits are surviving; social safety nets have failed

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A University Degree Is No Longer Worth the Investment

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Pre-Recession College Earnings Advantage: Male Workers

200500800

110014001700200023002600

18 25 32 39 46 53 60

Wee

kly

Earn

ings

Age

Men

Some college

College Graduates

High school graduatesHigh school dropouts

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Unemployment Rates Rising for College Graduates During the Recession

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Entry-level Real Wages of College Graduates Falling Since 2002

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Entry-level Real Wages of High School Graduates Falling Since 2001

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College Wage Premiums Are Still Rising

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Women Fared Better Than Men in the Recession

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Unemployment Rates by Gender, 2000-2012

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2

4

6

8

10

12

Male 16+Female 16+

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Job Loss by Gender In the Great Recession (Dec. 2007–Dec. 2011)

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Cumulative Change In Real Hourly Wages of

Women, by Wage Percentile, 1979–2011

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Cumulative Change in Real Hourly Wages of Men, by Wage Percentile,

1979–2011

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The Gender Wage Gap Continues to Narrow

1939 = 62%

1959 = 45%

1979 = 38%

1999 = 24%

2007 = 18%

2011 = 16%

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Good Jobs Have Disappeared

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Long-Duration Jobs (1983, 2008)Years with Current Employer

(wage & salary workers age 20+)

1983 200820+ years 9% 11%10+ years 27% 28%2 Years or Less 37% 34%

10+ Years, age 45-49 -- Men 58% 44% -- Women 33% 37%10+ Years, age 55-59 -- Men 66% 55% -- Women 51% 50%

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“Good” Jobs As a Share of Total Employment, 1979–2010

[Schmitt and Jones, CEPR, 2012 ]

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% Change in Employment Shares by Type of Job Duties, 1981-2011

[Jaimovich and Siu, The Trend is the Cycle, NBER Working Paper 18334, May 2012]

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Private Welfare Benefits Are Surviving; Social Safety Nets Have Failed

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Share of Recent College Graduates With Employer Health/Pension Coverage, 1979–2010

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Share of Recent High School Graduates with Employer Health & Pension Coverage, 1979–2010

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Share of Unemployed Receiving Unemployment Insurance Benefits, 1989-2011

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Per Capita Social Security Expenditures and the Elderly Poverty Rate, 1959–2011

Public Policy?

Priorities: More jobs, less chronic unemployment, better jobs, less labor market polarization

Active Policies Better job matching Education and training Regional economic development and labor mobility Work-based transitions: School-to-work, Re-employment

Labor Market Regulation Minimum wages and employment standards Unions and collective bargaining policy Anti-discrimination policies Immigration policy Public sector employment and HR reforms

Full Employment 29