myths, realities and needs about biofuels...bioenergy † possible negative environment + iluc...
TRANSCRIPT
Myths, Realities and Needs about Biofuels
Olivier Dubois, FAO EC Conference: “The role of low carbon fuels in
decarbonising transport: the emerging consensus from international initiatives“ , Brussels, 10-11 April, 2018
Generic Myths • Sweeping statements on biofuel
sustainability - Food crop feedstock always bad / Energy crops and residues always good - Not that simple!
• Simple solutions to reconcile food and fuels are available - You must be joking!
Myth #1 - Food-based feedstocks always bad??
• Not necessarily the case (e.g. sugarcane ethanol in Brazil, outgrower palm oil in Indonesia)
• Flex crops (that produce both food and fuel) do not compete with food if fuel adds to food –Possible but challenging through:– Yield increase (e.g. sugarcane in Brazil)– Substitution of export crops (e.g.: cassava ethanol
study in Tanzania)– Integrated food-energy systems (IFES)– Outgrower schemes
:• Agricultural/wood/fisheries by-products/ residues becoming
commodities as increasingly used (IEA predicts residues 25-30% of biofuel feedstock energy by 2050)
• Use of by-products allows for 10-30% reduction in land needsBUT
Watch out for: • competing use of agricultural residues (soil management – feed
– bioenergy)– Cheapest fertiliser and soil protection for small-scale farmers – Often more than 40% animal feed in developing countries
• Handling costs !
Myths #2 - Feedstocks from Residues – Panacea??
Myth #3 - Energy crops – Silver bullet??
• Less DIRECT competition with food security BUT
• Less edible by - products as the whole plant is used for bioenergy
• Possible negative environment + ILUC effects (e.g. large scale monocropping plantations replacing forests)
• Possible INDIRECT competition with food security – Regarding land use – Regarding the use of agricultural residues (soil, feed, energy)
• No flexibility between food and energy markets• Not yet ready on large scale and for some more time
2G biofuels are expensive – e.g. ethanol
Myth #4: ILUC risk is new and does not exist with 2G Biofuels
• ILUC risk is not new – It concerns all biomass production that entails land use change – Hence ALL biofuels – including 2G Biofuels
Global Realities• Sustainable biofuel production is complex
• One should embrace this complexity rather than oversimplifying things by relying only on modelling and global studies
• The good news is that there is enough evidence, knowledge and tools to move from “food versus fuel” and “1G versus 2G” to “food and fuel” and “1G and 2G biofuels”
1st Set of Specific Realities – Land issues
• Not so much about How much land – most people think there is enough land for food and fuel production– Biofuels currently use less than 5% of all arable land – Percentage could rise to 5-10% in the next decades.– It depends on many factors (e.g. intensification, use of
by –products)
• Often more about Whose and What Land
WHOSE land
Land belongs to Size of bionergy production unit
Large Small/community type
Company (private or public)
A C
Small producer or community
B D
Source: Dubois, 2008
Outgrower schemes
• “No go areas” (high carbon, high biodiversity) –Relatively easy to define; more difficult to enforce
• “Best bet areas” Often so-called degraded/marginal/abandoned land: But controversial/dynamic concepts that need to be locallydefined
+ What is more Interesting for investors !?
WHAT land
The ILUC issue
• ILUC risk exist for Land-based bioproducts
• Models to assess the ILUC risks oversimplify the reality
• There are ways to reduce the ILUC risk, so more constructive to focus on these
Key Messages on Land Realities Often more about “Whose” and “What” Land
A lot to do with land and natural resources governance
Voluntary guidelines on sustainable tenure governance of land, forests and fisheries exist
ILUC risk for ALL Biofuels there are ways to minimise it
2nd Set of Specific Realities - Food prices • Based on global studies biofuels cause 3 to 75%
increase on international food prices - Jury out forever!
+ • Need to assess price transmission from commodity
to food and from international to national and local levels
• Price changes impact different people in different ways
Impacts will vary for net sellers and net buyers of food
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Bolivia
Ethiopia
Bangla
desh
Zambia
Mad
agasc
ar
Vietnam
Cambodia
Smallholders net sellers
Smallholders self-sufficient
Smallholders net buyers
Rural landless (buyers)
Urban (buyers)
Source: World Bank 2007
Key Messages on Food Price Realities
There is a link BUT
Biofuels are one amongst many other factors that influence food prices
Need to look at the link at country and household levels - where it matters!
Realities about 1G/2G Biofuels • A lot can be learned about the challenges and
opportunities of 1G biofuels that is useful for 2Gbiofuels
• There are several examples of technological and financial synergies between 1G and 2G biofuels
• It will take quite some time before 2G biofuels have a meaningful impact on energy use and climate change
Realities about 1G/2G Biofuels • There are several examples of technological and
financial synergies between 1st G and 2nd G biofuels
• Therefore 2nd G biofuels should be developed in parallel with 1st G biofuels
• The key issue is not about choosing between 1st or 2ndG biofuels, but on how to make biofuels sustainable, and
Generic Needs • Move Away from Myths and Sweeping
Statements
• Embrace the complexities of sustainable biofuels
• Be constructive and rigourous by using available tools to get things right through an integrated, contextualized and evidence-based approach
Example: FAO’s Sustainable Bioenergy Support Package
• An in-depth understanding of the situation and related opportunities and risks as well as synergies and trade-offs;
• Implementation of good practices by investors/producers in order to reduce risks and increase opportunities;
• An enabling policy and institutional environment to promote the implementation of good practices;
• Appropriate monitoring and evaluation of impacts and performance of good practices and policy responses
Typology of FAO Tools for SustainableBioenergy
Before project implementation: Screening and risk prevention
After project implementation: Assessment and monitoring
Local Impact BEFS Operator Level Tool
IFES analytical framework
Regional/ National impact
BEFS Rapid Appraisal
GBEP indicators
Needs on Feedstock Matters • One should be agnostic not dogmatic about
types of feedstock
• This is because what matters is the way they are managed for food and non-food purposes
• Watch out on competition between different uses of feedstocks
Needs on 1G/2G Biofuels • 2G biofuels should be developed in parallel with
1G biofuels
• The key issue is not about choosing between 1Gor 2G biofuels, but on how to make biofuels sustainable, and
• Together, we have the means to do it if we embrace the challenges of sustainable biofuels in a science and reality-based way
FAO’s Key Messages on Biofuels
•Sustainability of biofuels is context specific. Therefore its assessment must be based on reality not models and global studies• Tools and knowledge are now available to help governments and operators reduce risks and enhance opportunities of biofuel development • Per se biofuels are neither good nor bad. What matters is the way they are managed • Biofuels should be viewed as another opportunity for responsible investment in sustainable agriculture, rural development and bioeconomy.
