Upgraded group profitability profile sets the tone for a record year.

Mytilineos Group MYTr.AT / MYTIL GA

Rating Buy Unchanged

Target Price (EUR) 8.60 Previous Target Price 6.30

Current Share Price* (EUR) 5.86

*24/11/2016

2016 is shaping as a key year for Mytilineos Group as conditions (mainly in the Greek energy market) and

management actions put the metallurgy and the energy operations in a strong position to reap high returns in the

years to come. 2017 and 2018 are expected to be a record years for the group. We raise our 2017-18 EBITDA and

EPS estimates for the group by 30% and 57% respectively on the back of the upgraded profitability profile of the

group and we push our TP to EUR 8.60/sh (vs. EUR 6.30/sh previously). Buy recommendation maintained.

We estimate cEUR 90m of annual benefits for the group from maturing energy market conditions

Profitability gains related to energy, amounting to about EUR 90m, are expected to be realized by the group in 2017

and more than mitigate the weaker performance of METKA. Benefits include i) the re-instatement of Capacity

certificates (EUR 28m for 2016, EUR 33m on a FY basis); ii) interuptablity measure (EUR 14m p.a.); iii) agreement

with PPC on Aluminium of Greece (AoG) tariffs (EUR 14m p.a.); iv) abolition of excise tax on natural gas (cEUR 13m

p.a.); v) higher CCGT load factors (about EUR 15m for 2016)

Metallurgy division - Cost reduction is the name of the game

2017 is set to be a record year for the profitability of the metallurgy division of the group. The realization of lower

electricity prices, combined with the launch of another cost streamline initiative by the management, are expected

to position AoG as one of the lowest cash cost producers on a global scale. Said cost savings and favorable FX

accompanied with the realization of metal prices of $1,700/MT plus premium for 2017, are expected to boost the

division’s EBITDA in 2017 to the all time high of EUR 159m (+85% y-o-y). Based on our updated estimates (2017-18

EBITDA c75% higher) we raise our valuation for AoG by 40%.

Energy division –Better visibility, at last

We estimate that the division’s EBITDA in 2016 will be boosted by more that EUR 40m vs. 2015 due to capacity

certificates re-instatement, higher load factors of CCGT units, increased RES capacity and aggressive market share

expansion in supply. The division is now becoming the second largest profitability contributor for the group,

accounting for 30% in 2017-18 of the total EBITDA vs. 9.0% in 2015. Implementation of market reforms improves our

visibility for the medium to longer term and thus we raise our valuation on the division by 10%.

EPC/METKA – Challenges remain <TP EUR 7.80/sh, Downgrade to Neutral>

METKA is experiencing the down-cycle in the EPC market. Regional political turmoil and low oil prices have affected

investments in the sector in its traditional markets (Turkey, Middle East, Northern Africa). Nevertheless we believe

the company’s healthy balance sheet and focus should support the operations until the dust settles and the

company repositions itself. We lower our EPS estimates in 2017-18 by 15% on average, while our revised valuation

exercise yields a TP of EUR 7.80/sh (from EUR 9.30/sh previously). We assign a Neutral recommendation on the

stock.

Balance sheet capacity enhanced by FCF generation and corporate restructuring

With cumulative FCF in 2017-18 of about EUR 370m, the group’s gearing levels are expected to retract to historical

lows (2018 net debt/EBITDA <1.0x). Moreover, management has recently announced corporate restructuring

initiatives that aim to improve the group’s structure and allow the realization of integration efficiencies.

EPS up 57% - TP raised to EUR 8.60 – Buy remains

Given the upgraded profitability profile of the group, and the skew of the profitability mix towards the fully owned

metallurgy and energy divisions, we raise our 2017-18 group EBITDA and EPS estimates by 33% and 57% vs.

previously. The group is now trading at 5.2x and 3.7x on 2017F P/E and EV/EBITDA while FCF yield is seen at 27% for

the same year. On our TP group would trade at 5.5x and 8.3x 2017F average EV/EBITDA and P/E, which are in line

with the group’s 5-yers historical trading multiples.

EUR m 2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F

Revenues 1,232.6 1,382.9 1,277.2 1,422.4 1,436.1 EBITDA 254.7 234.1 215.7 286.4 290.9 Net Income 64.9 47.5 59.2 121.4 132.7 EPS 0.56 0.41 0.51 1.04 1.14

P/E 9.0 11.5 5.6 5.2 5.4 EV/EBITDA 3.6 4.1 5.8 3.7 3.1 FCF yield 24.5% -30.7% -5.9% 27.8% 25.8% Source: AXIA Research, The Company

Axia Ventures Group - 4 Vas. Sofias Ave., 10674 Athens Greece, Tel: +30 210 7414400, Fax: +30 210 7414449, Web: www.axiavg.com

Please refer to the last page for disclosures and analyst certification

METKA

MTKr.AT / METTK GA

Rating Neutral from Buy

Target Price (EUR) 7.80 Previous Target Price 9.30

Current Share Price* (EUR) 7.20

*24/11/2016

Analysts Argyrios Gkonis Argyrios.gkonis@axiavg.com +30 210-7414 462 Constantinos Zouzoulas Constantinos.zouzoulas@axiavg.com +30 210-7414 460

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 2

Estimates Update

We update our estimates for the group based on an expected stronger profitability from the metallurgy

and improved performance in electricity generation and trading. On the other hand, we turn more

cautious on EPC outlook, given METKA’s limited visibility. Overall, we increase our 2017-18 EBITDA

estimates by about 30%.

Importantly, with EBITDA mix in 2017-18 skewed towards the 100% owned AoG and Protergia (instead of

the 50% owned METKA) and lower financial expenses due to expected debt reduction, EPS is seen c55%

higher than previous estimates.

For 2016 we fine-tune our estimates, raising group EBITDA by 9.5% over our previous estimates to account

for profitability gains in AoG and the launch of Ghana II project for EPC.

In respect of consensus, we are admittedly more bullish as we feel there is adequate visibility on both

metallurgy and energy operations, while we expect the group to utilize the strong FCF in 2017-18 to slash

financing costs.

Table 1. Updated Mytilineos Group Estimates

EUR m 2016 2017 2018

New

Revenues 1,277.2 1,422.4 1,436.1

EBITDA 215.7 286.4 290.9

Net Income 59.2 121.4 132.7

Old

Revenues 1,228.1 1,280.5 1,292.7

EBITDA 198.7 216.2 218.3

Net Income 55.3 76.9 84.1

New-vs-Old

Revenues 4.0% 11.1% 11.1%

EBITDA 8.6% 32.5% 33.3%

Net Income 7.0% 57.9% 57.8%

Consensus

Revenues 1,289.1 1,305.2 1,353.4

EBITDA 224.3 245.0 256.0

Net Income 51.3 86.0 95.4

AXIA-vs-Consensus

Revenues -1% 9% 6%

EBITDA -4% 17% 14%

Net Income 15% 41% 39% Source: AXIA Research, Capital IQ consensus

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 3

Table 2. Mytilineos Group detailed estimates

(EUR m) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f

Revenues

Metallurgy 473.3 501.4 521.3 506.0 436.0 471.0 549.0 502.4 547.9 544.2 535.3

EPC 212.6 499.4 929.8 507.4 604.0 602.0 650.0 492.2 415.3 350.0 337.0

Energy 4.3 9.5 134.9 446.1 369.0 167.0 187.0 282.6 459.2 541.9 561.8

Group Total Revenues 661.8 1,001.4 1,586.0 1,453.6 1,403.0 1,232.0 1,382.0 1,277.2 1,422.4 1,436.1 1,434.1

y-o-y

51.3% 58.4% -8.3% -3.5% -12.2% 12.2% -7.6% 11.4% 1.0% -0.1%

EBITDA

Metallurgy 70.8 58.9 31.9 29.0 42.0 87.0 98.0 85.9 159.5 153.3 139.7

% of total 51.0% 28.5% 16.3% 23.6% 28.0% 44.2% 44.3% 54.9% 76.1% 78.6% 78.0%

EPC 68.0 147.6 163.5 94.0 108.0 110.0 123.0 70.7 50.2 41.7 39.3

% of total 48.7% 71.5% 72.5% 50.0% 45.2% 40.6% 50.6% 31.9% 17.2% 14.0% 14.0%

Energy 0.7 -0.1 30.0 65.2 89.0 74.0 22.0 65.2 82.7 102.0 102.5

% of total 0.5% 0.0% 13.3% 34.6% 37.2% 27.3% 9.1% 29.4% 28.3% 34.3% 36.4%

Group Total EBITDA 118.9 192.7 211.6 178.5 225.0 254.0 235.0 215.7 286.4 290.9 275.6

y-o-y

62.1% 9.8% -15.7% 26.1% 12.9% -7.5% -8.2% 32.8% 1.6% -5.3%

Net Financial expense -23.8 -20.9 -17.9 -53.7 -50.0 -71.4 -61.1 -65.7 -50.1 -36.7 -29.1

EBT 36.4 131.0 110.3 55.4 73.8 136.3 108.8 106.4 193.3 205.2 194.7

Taxes -16.7 -33.2 -24.9 -10.0 -13.1 -22.6 -28.4 -22.5 -54.8 -57.8 -54.2

Earnings after tax 19.7 97.8 85.4 45.4 60.7 113.7 80.4 84.0 138.5 147.3 140.4

Minorities 6.4 29.8 43.3 26.3 44.6 48.5 28.2 24.8 17.1 14.6 14.1

Net Income 13.7 60.9 42.6 19.1 15.9 64.9 47.5 59.2 121.4 132.7 126.3

FCF -40.6 213.2 532.1 -127.3 155.2 130.5 -131.9 -40.6 190.2 176.7 139.0

Net Debt 430.9 486.3 574.6 724.8 509.7 373.4 526.7 571.9 362.4 212.1 117.3

Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 3.6 2.5 2.7 4.1 2.3 1.5 2.2 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.4 Source: AXIA Research, The Company

Strong FCF increases BS capacity allowing the group to consider expansionary actions

Group’s net debt at the end of 2016 is expected to settle about EUR 50m higher y-o-y at cEUR 570m

affected mainly by the outflow of EUR 100m from AoG in the context of the agreement with PPC which is

booked in 2H16. Recall that Mytilineos paid up-front following the signing of the agreement the said

amount that corresponds to the consumption of AoG for approximately a 12-month period.

Our updated estimates call for cumulative FCF of about EUR 370m in 2017 and 2018. As domestic macro

normalizes we believe that the management will now target a more aggressive reduction of financial

expenses. On our estimates, this will lower the group’s financial expenses by about EUR 30m in 2018 vs.

2016 (50% lower).

In respect of gearing we now expect net debt/EBITDA in 2017 to settle at 1.3x, vs. 2.7x in 2016 and 2.2x in

2015.

As gearing levels are seen receding to multi-year lows for the group, we believe that the balance sheet will

be lenient enough to both support the group's operations and also to allow it to consider new investment

opportunities.

Domestically we would expect the group to monitor the privatization of LARCO (one of the largest Nickel

producers in the EU that is included in Greece’s privatization program) but also it could consider

opportunities in the electricity market, stemming from the restructuring of PPC.

On the international front, we highlight recent comments by the management for the financial specs of EPC

projects that demand the deployment of capital (similar to the first project in Ghana). Also note that the

group has also turned its attention in the Iranian market having already indicated its intention to be

involved in the construction of new aluminium production unit, as well as a large electricity power plant in

the country.

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 4

Mytilineos Group Valuation

As our estimates reflect, Mytilineos Group is expected to book significant profitability in the coming years as

there is better visibility for the medium-to-longer term outlook of the group’s metallurgy and energy

divisions. We raise our appraised valuations for AoG and Energy division by 40% and 10% respectively. On

the other hand we turn more cautious on the EPC activity, with our appraised EV lower by 30%.

Our updated SOTP exercise raises our target price for the group to EUR 8.60/sh from EUR 6.30/sh

previously. The stock offers an 46.7% upside form current levels, thus we remain Buyers. Note that for

2017 we additionally model in an attractive dividend yield of 9.0% for 2017.

As we have expected since the announcement of the agreement with PPC in late September, Mytilineos

share price has rallied, posting gains of about 50% in the last 3-months. The performance has been also

facilitated with the improvement of the international sentiment towards GR equities, with ASE posting gains

of 10% in the same period, while GGB yields have improved by more than 150bps.

For the coming period the share price could further react as the market continues to digest the significant

FCF generation capacity of the company, we could also experience a positive bias on GR equities, assuming

there is a review and a debt relief agreement with the institutions and Greece enters into the QE.

In terms of multiples, the group is seen trading at 2016 P/E of 11.6x, which is estimated to shape at 5.6x in

2017, following the significant EPS improvement. In respect of EV/EBITDA, Mytilineos group screens at 5.8x

in 2016 and 3.6x in 2017. Finally we note the significant FCF generation of the group, with 2017-18 FCF yield

seen at 27.8% and 25.8% respectively.

Table 3. Mytilineos Group SOTP valuation

EUR m Valuation Method EV (@ 100%) Mytilineos Stake Stake's EV

Metallurgy & Mining

Aluminium of Greece DCF 861.4 100% 861.4

Construction

METKA DCF/multiples 218.6 50% 109.3

Energy

RES portfolio DCF 124.0 100% 124.0

Korinthos Power DCF 323.2 65% 210.1

Ag. Nikolas Viotias DCF 268.5 100% 268.5

Retail Supply DFC 45.0 100% 45.0

Capitalized fees and HQ costs

METKA management fee DCF 25.1

HQ Overheads DCF (69)

Group EV 1,840.6 1,574.2

Group Net Debt (end-2016) (572)

Group NAV 1,002.3

Num. of Shares (m) 116.9

Value Per Share 8.60

Current Share Price 5.86

Upside 46.7% Source: AXIA Research

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 5

Metallurgy

2017 is set to be a record year for the profitability of the metallurgy division of the group. The realization

of lower electricity prices, following the agreement with PPC and the implementation of supportive

policies for the industry (as provided by the agreement of the country with its creditors), combined with

the launch of another cost streamline initiative by the management, are expected to position AoG as one

of the lowest cash cost producers on a global scale. The realization of the said cost savings, accompanied

with metal prices of $1,700/MT plus premium in 2017 and supportive FX, are expected to boost the

division’s EBITDA in 2017 to the all time high of EUR 159m (+85% y-o-y).

The agreement with PPC

Aluminium of Greece management has consistently focused its efforts on slashing its cost base as a key

priority for safeguarding the company’s profitability against the commodity markets volatility. The company

currently runs one of the most efficient plants in the industry, with its cash costs having declined from

$2,500/MT in 2011 to c$1,400/MT currently. Electricity expenses are the most relevant cost item for the

producer and account for an estimated 39% of total aluminium cash costs.

Up till now the overall cost saving achieved, had not included any discounts in electricity tariffs. AoG, as the

country’s largest consumer (accounts for s5.0% of the total consumption) had been in a long lasting dispute

with PPC over the pricing terms. Following the provisions of the updated MoU with international creditors,

PPC offered bilateral agreements to all of its High Voltage clients based on their consumption

characteristics, including AoG.

PPC’s AGM on early October ratified the decision for the pricing terms with AoG. According to the

agreement, AoG will be charged with EUR 31.6/MWh plus regulated charges and CO2 surcharge.

That is a EUR 5.0/MWh discount to what AoG was paying to PPC based on the arbitration decision. The said

discount incorporates a client profile discount as well as a further volume discount.

We estimate the annual impact of this discount to EUR 14m, while the decision is applicable as of July 1st

2016, providing a boost to 2016 figures as well (cEUR 6.0m). Note that the agreement has a time tenor up to

the end of 2020.

As a “sweetener” to PPC, AoG will down-pay EUR 100m that correspond to approximately electricity bills for

12 months that will be settled through the monthly bills. Also PPC will be eligible to an increase in tariff by

EUR 1.25/MWh for every $100/MT move of the LME prices above $1,800/MT.

In terms of sensitivity note that based on current cost structure a $100/MT move in LME prices results in a

EUR 18m move in AoG EBITDA, while a EUR 1.0/MWh move in electricity tariff corresponds to a cEUR 2.5m

move in EBITDA.

Benefits from the electricity market restructuring

From the changes in the electricity market (interruptability, Capacity Certificates, excise tax abolition) AoG is

expected to benefit by c23m on a yearly basis.

The implementation of the so called interuptability measure is estimated to yield additional savings of EUR

13m on a FY basis (EUR 6.0m to be realized in 2016). The measure was introduced by the government in the

context of the overall restructuring of the domestic electricity market an initiative to support industrial

production.

According to the measure provisions, the market operator has the right to ask the industries to suspend

their production for certain time periods of high demand by the system. The industries are therefore

compensated for offering this flexibility to the market operator, through the end-consumers.

Furthermore, following the re-instatement of Capacity Certificates in 2016 and the abolition of tax on

natural gas used for electricity production we estimate additional gains of about EUR 10m of a FY basis.

Recall that AoG operations also incorporate the group’s natural gas Co-Gen unit.

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 6

New cost cutting program launch

Following the realization of the savings from these energy related measures, AoG cash costs according to

management are expected to reach $1,200/MT by the end of 2016, repositioning AoG in the first quartile of

the global cost curve.

As a final stretch, management has recently announced a new cost cutting program, called “the Best” which

is the third such a program in the last five years. It is expected to run in 2017 and 2018 and targets

additional saving of $200/MT, targeting efficiencies in natural gas supply and further operational

streamlining.

The successful implementation of this initiative would bring AoG in the top positions of the global cost

curve. We estimate that at this point in time AoG would be able to generate an EBITDA in proximity of EUR

200m annually, assuming LME prices in the region of $1,700/MT and current €/$ parity.

Nevertheless, we remain cautious on our estimates and maintain cash costs above the $1,300/MT mark for

the forecasted period.

Chart 1a. Aluminium cost structure (2015 AXIA estimates) Chart 1b. AoG cost base evolution ($/MT – AXIA estimate)

Source: The Company, AXIA Research

Aluminium prices

In respect of aluminium prices, since 2Q2016 the has reverted to normalized levels with the average price

ytd at about $1,680/MT (+13% y-o-y) driven by production curtailments in China due to the spiking regional

energy costs (i.e. coal prices). Recall that during the last couple of years LME prices presented significant

volatility, collapsing from the highs in mid 2014 (above $2,300/MT) all the way down to $1,350/MT in late

2015 affected by the performance of oil prices, FX movements and increased output in China.

Global Aluminium market is expected to continue to present sustainable growth. According to converging

market estimates aluminium demand in 2016 is expected to increase by about 4.0%-5.0% and is expected to

grow between 3.0% to 4.0% in the medium to longer term. Yet we have to note that despite the demand

slowdown, the size of the market is such that in absolute term the market is expected to grow by about

2.4m tones which are just below the average of 2.8m tones registered in 2011-16.

In respect of supply, for 2016-17 is expected to grow at higher rate than demand driven by new capacity in

China (estimated by EIU to grow output by 7.1% in 2017 and 5.9% in 2018). Yet the market is seen

remaining at a deficit for 2016 and 2017, with new additions outside China expected for 2017-18.

AoG management has communicated that the entire production for 2017 has been hedged at $1,700/MT,

which is above the 2016 average price. Moreover we account for premiums of about $300-350/MT. Going

forward we do not deviate significantly from these levels taking into account the declining growth rate of

demand and the uncertainty introduced to the market due to China. We account for realized prices of

$1,717/MT in 2018, $1,683/MT in 2019 while for the long term we revert to $1,650/MT.

Electricity, 38.9%

Oil, 1.6% Alumina,

26.4%

Coke, 11.0%

Fabrication, 22.1%

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f 2017f

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 7

Chart 2. Aluminium LME prices evolution

Source: Capital IQ, AXIA Research

Updated estimates

All in all our updated estimates call for significant improvements in the AoG profitability driven by the

upgraded cost profile. We raise our 2017-18 EBITDA estimates by about 75% on average vs. previously as

we account for:

i) 7.0% higher LME prices on average for 2017-18.

ii) Cash costs down by about $200/MT, following the upgraded profitability profile.

As a final remark we highlight the positive effect of the strong USD for AoG business. As AoG exports the

bulk of its production and international quotations are USD based, the strengthening of the USD has a

positive translation effect for the group. According to our estimates a strengthening of the USD by 0.05

cents would improve our EBITDA estimate by cEUR 15m. On our estimates we assume a stable €/$ parity at

1.1.

Table 4. AoG model assumptions

2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f

LME ($/MT) 1,780.0 1,894.0 1,856.1 1,560.0 1,700.0 1,717.0 1,682.7

LME+premium ($/MT) 2,260.6 2,490.6 2,208.8 1,872.0 2,074.0 2,043.2 2,002.4

Alumina ($/MT) 300.0 303.0 297.0 249.6 272.0 274.7 269.2

Aluminium cash cost ($/MT) 2,144.5 2,078.8 1,695.3 1,502.8 1,331.7 1,358.7 1,378.2

Brent ($/bbl) 108.0 99.5 55.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0

Nat Gas (€/MWh) 44.4 42.0 34.0 12.0 13.2 14.4 15.6

Electricity (€/MWh) 42.0 45.0 44.0 39.0 33.0 33.0 33.0

€/$ 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

EBITDA 36.2 73.1 98.2 85.9 159.5 153.3 139.7 Source: AXIA Research, The Company, Bloomberg

Valuation

Following our updated estimates, we now raise our appraised EV for AoG by about 40%, to stand at EUR

861.4m (vs. EUR 615m previously).

On our estimated valuation AoG would trade at 5.5x EV/EBITDA for 2017-18. Note that global aluminium

peers, currently trade 9.0x on 2017-18 EV/EBITDA vs. an industry 5-year average of 7.7x

Note that if we valued AoG taking into consideration the industry historical EV/EBITDA multiple, our

appraised EV would settle about 35% higher.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Aluminium LME Cash ($/MT) Aluminium LME (€/MT) Brent ($/bbl-rhs)

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 8

Table 5. AoG DCF exercise

DCF Exercise 2017 2018 2019 2020

EBITDA 159.5 153.3 139.7 123.4

(Capex) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0) (25.0)

(Taxes) (34.6) (33.0) (29.2) (24.7)

WC Changes 13.7 1.2 (1.1) (0.1)

FCF 113.6 96.5 84.4 73.7

Discounted FCF 103.3 79.8 63.4 50.3

Terminal Value 564.6

EV 861.4 Source: AXIA Research

Table 6. Global Aluminium peers

Company Country

P/E

EV/EBITDA

P/E EV/EBITDA

FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 5Y avg 5Y avg

Alumina Limited Australia 57.6 25.8 21.9 41.1 21.7 36.8 44.9

AMAG Austria Metall AG Austria 28.3 24.6 18.6 9.9 8.9 7.4 17.9 7.4

Shandong Nanshan Aluminum Co., LTD China 49.9 27.6 19.4 16.2 12.0 9.1 16.4 7.6

Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited China NM NM 22.7 11.6 10.7 9.0 38.0

China Zhongwang Holdings Limited China 8.1 6.0 4.8 NA NA NA 6.6

Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. China 29.3 21.3 17.0

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. China 6.5 5.5 5.1 5.5 4.8 4.6 4.3 3.6

Jiangsu Alcha Aluminium Co.,Ltd. China 35.1 25.1 16.3 NA NA NA 21.1 14.3

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. India 0.0 16.5 12.1 NA 5.1 3.9 13.3 5.3

Hindalco Industries Ltd. India 0.0 11.3 9.4 NA 7.3 6.9 9.4 7.1

UACJ Corporation Japan 0.0 15.1 9.3 NA 8.6 7.3 12.2 7.2

Nippon Light Metal Holdings Company, Ltd. Japan 0.0 8.8 7.9 NA 6.5 6.3 8.7 6.4

Constellium N.V Netherlands 27.5 7.8 5.3 6.7 5.8 5.3 10.2 6.3

Vimetco NV Netherlands NA NA NA NA NA NA

Norsk Hydro ASA Norway 22.8 19.6 15.7 7.2 6.8 6.2 22.4 6.7

United Company RUSAL Plc Russia 7.3 8.9 7.1 10.1 10.8 9.6 11.6 12.1

Alcoa Corporation US 15.1

0.0

13.5 6.5

Century Aluminum Co. US NM NM NM 34.6 11.5 11.8 34.0 9.7

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation US 16.5 15.8 14.6 7.7 7.6 7.1 16.3 7.3

Average 19.0 16.0 12.9 13.7 9.2 9.4 17.7 7.7

Median 15.8 15.8 13.3 9.9 8.1 7.2 13.5 7.2

AoG on AXIA valuation Greece

10.0 5.4 5.6

Source: AXIA Research, Capital IQ

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 9

Energy division

As we have highlighted in previous reports, the group’s energy division is picking up its pace and is now

the second largest profitability contributor for the group. Mytilineos is taking advantage of the maturing

market conditions to boost the profitability of the energy division and expand its footprint.

The implementation of electricity market reforms improve our visibility for the medium to longer term,

thus we update our estimates for the division and raise the appraised EV by 10%.

Updated Estimates

The division’s EBITDA in 2016 is now seen at EUR 65.2m from EUR 22m in 2015. Key reasons for this upside

are:

i) Re-instatement of capacity certificates (EUR 20m in 2016).

ii) Higher Load factors, lower nat. gas prices, abolition of excise tax on natural gas (cEUR 19m).

iii) Increased market share in retail supply.

For 2017, we expect EBITDA of the division to improve further to EUR 82.7m assisted by: i) the FY

application of Capacity Certificates; ii) higher CCGT load factors; iii) double digit market share in retail

supply; and iv) new wind park capacity coming online.

Table 7. Energy Division estimates

EUR m 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenues

CCGT units 150.4 187.2 219.9 219.8

RES 17.1 22.1 22.1 22.0

Trading & Other 115.0 250.0 300.0 320.0

Total Revenues 187.0 282.6 459.2 541.9 561.8

y-o-y 11% 51% 63% 18% 4%

EBITDA

CCGT units 48.3 58.1 75.9 76.0

Thermal energy 30.7 36.9 53.0 53.1

CACs 17.6 21.2 22.9 22.9

RES 13.4 17.1 17.0 17.0

Trading & Other 3.5 7.5 9.0 9.6

Total EBITDA 22 65.2 82.7 102.0 102.5

margin 12% 23% 18% 19% 18%

y-o-y -71% 201% 27% 23% 1% Source: AXIA Research

Table 8. Energy division valuation

MW EV EV/MW Mytil. Stake EV per stake

Korinthos Power 436 323 0.7 65% 210.1

Viotia 444 268 0.6 100% 268.5

RES 124 124 1.0 100% 124.0

Retail Supply

45

100% 45.0

Total 1,004 761

647.5

Source: AXIA Research

Find further detail on the outlook of the domestic electricity market in the appendix.

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 10

EPC – METKA <TP EUR 7.80/sh, Downgrade to Neutral>

METKA has found itself in a down cycle in the EPC market. Political turmoil and low oil prices have

affected investments in the sector. Nevertheless we believe the company’s healthy balance sheet and

focus should support the operations until the dust settles.

We lower our EPS estimates in 2017-18 by 15% on average, while our revised valuation exercise yields a

TP of EUR 7.80/sh (from EUR 9.30/sh previously). We assign a Neutral recommendation on the stock.

The first half of 2016 has been very strong for METKA. Despite the lower backlog in the beginning of the

year, swift execution drove revenues marginally up (+1.9% y-o-y) standing at EUR 262.6m. Key contributor

was the execution of projects in Greece, Iraq, Algeria and Syria. Also the solar development subsidiary,

METKA EGN (50% stake) contributed EUR 89.4m from the execution of projects in UK and US.

With the backlog at the end of the semester standing at EUR 1.1bn, with cEUR 500m related to the

stagnated project in Syria, we expect a rather slow performance in the second part of the year. Execution

of projects in Greece, Algeria and Iran will are seen driving EPC sales. We also assume contribution from the

recently awarded second project in Ghana that has a total time tenor of 28 months.

For 2017, sales should be driven by the execution of the Ghana II project, ramp up of the railway project in

Greece as well as contribution of METKA EGN and industrial applications. Also we pencil in some revenues

from Syria, mainly related to equipment deployment.

Going forward for 2018-19 we pencil in new EPC projects of about EUR 400m in total (including EGN

activity).

As an upside to our estimates we note:

The political developments in Syria that could unlock a significant part of the current backlog. In our

base estimates we account for a minimal contribution from Syria.

Iranian market penetration. METKA has already signed an MoU for the construction of e 900MW

power plant. The gradual normalization in the financing sector of the country following the lift of

international sanction should allow the realization of large-scale energy projects.

Table 9. METKA revenues estimates

EUR m 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Signed EPC projects 271.9 195.3 50.0 47.0

New EPC 0 50 160 140

EGN 104.0 50 50 50

Infrastructure 70.6 80.0 50.0 60.0

Industrial 45.7 40.0 40.0 40.0

Total Revenues 492.2 415.3 350.0 337.0 Source: AXIA Research

Updated Estimates

Based on our new assumptions we update our estimates for the company. We now are more defensive on

the medium term outlook, with our 2017-18 EPS estimates coming down by about 15% vs. previously. More

specifically we raise our 2016 estimates across PnL incorporating the launch of the new project in Ghana in

2H16, as well as strong contribution from EGN.

For the next couple of years we maintain a more conservative stance on new order intake and profitability,

with our sales estimates down by 2.7% and 14% in 2017-18 and EBITDA lower by 7.2% and 9.7%

respectively.

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 11

Table 10. Updated estimates (EUR m)

2016f 2017f 2018f

New

Sales 492.2 415.3 350.0

EBITDA 70.7 50.2 41.7

Net Income 36.8 30.6 25.7

Old

Sales 438.7 427.0 407.1

EBITDA 49.4 54.1 46.2

Net Income 31.3 36.2 30.2

New-vs-Old

Sales 12.2% -2.7% -14.0%

EBITDA 43.1% -7.2% -9.7%

Net Income 17.5% -15.5% -15.1%

Consensus

Sales 498.2 421.1 395.5

EBITDA 77.7 55.8 51.4

Net Income 42.3 34.9 33.6

AXIA-vs-Consensus

Sales -1.2% -1.4% -11.5%

EBITDA -9.1% -10.0% -18.9%

Net Income -13.2% -12.3% -23.7% Source: AXIA Research, Capital IQ

Valuation: METKA – Neutral – TP EUR 7.80/sh

On the back of our updated estimates we revise our valuation for METKA. We now adopt a weighted

valuation using DCF and targeted P/E multiples. Our exercise yields a target price of EUR 7.80/sh (from EUR

9.30/sh. previously) reflecting our downward revised estimates. Given current stock price levels we apply a

Neutral recommendation.

Note that we expect the company to maintain its dividend distribution policy, yet lower profitability and a

more cautious approach given the limited visibility is expected to weigh on yield that is now estimated at

1.5% for 2016 vs. an average of 5.8% since 2010.

We continue to use DCF as our primary valuation method (hence the 70% weight) as it better depicts the

operating CF for the company in the medium term. We also use a peers multiple valuation, after applying a

20% discount, which we estimate the market is attributing due to the Greek listed corporate universe.

Table 11. METKA summary valuation

Fair Value Weight TP

DCF – 16% WACC 8.40 70.0% 5.88

Peers – 11.1x 2017E EPS 6.49 30.0% 1.95

Target price

7.80

Current price

7.20

Upside

8.3% Source: AXIA Research

In our DCF exercise we use our explicit forecasts for up to 2019, while our WACC is set at 16% in reflecting

METKA’s presence in regions with heated geopolitical environment (10% risk free rate, 5.5% equity risk

premium) as well as its capital structure (0% leverage).

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 12

Table 12. METKA DCF exercise

EUR m 2017 2018 2019 TV

NOPAT 35.8 29.0 27.0 25.0

Depreciation 4.3 4.5 4.7 5.0

Capex -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0

WC Changes 36.3 27.2 0.4 0.0

FCF 71.4 55.7 27.1 25.0

NPV 71.4 48.1 20.2 16.0

Terminal Value 100.1

(Net Debt)/Cash (end-2016) 186.6

Minorities 6.0

NAV 436.4

Num. of Shares (m) 52.0

Target Price (€/sh) 8.40

Source: AXIA Research

Table 13. Specialized EPC contractors valuation table

Company Country Mcap P/E EV/EBITDA Div. Yield FCF yield

EUR m 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018 2016 2017 2018

Chicago Bridge & Iron Netherlands 3,203 7.0 7.3 7.4 5.6 5.9 6.2 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.1% 17.4% 14.2%

Tekfen Holding A.S. Turkey 647 7.5 5.9 5.6 5.1 3.8 3.7 4.1% 5.2% 6.1% 16.6% 11.0% 13.8%

Technip SA France 7,959 13.5 18.7 20.2 5.1 6.0 6.0 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% -0.1% 2.3% 5.0%

Aker ASA Norway 2,638 19.8 16.3 14.4 11.3 12.0 12.3 4.1% 4.6% 4.6% -9.3% 7.5% 8.0%

Amec Foster Wheeler plc UK 1,936 8.2 8.6 7.6 8.0 8.3 7.7 5.1% 5.1% 5.3% 5.6% 8.9% 8.2%

AF Gruppen ASA Norway 1,526 20.5 19.6 18.4 11.6 11.8 11.1 4.7% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.9%

Eltel AB (publ) Sweden 343 24.4 9.1 7.6 14.3 8.8 7.8

4.3% 5.8% -6.1% 12.0% 14.2%

MYR Group Inc. US 579 32.7 23.8 21.7 8.8 7.6 7.1

2.8% 5.6% 6.8%

Fluor Corporation US 7,158 23.2 18.4 17.1 9.5 7.8 7.7 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 5.4% 5.8% 5.2%

KBR, Inc. US 2,317 40.2 13.0 12.6 14.9 7.8 7.5 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 12.7% 8.0%

Tutor Perini Corporation US 1,257 13.9 11.2 11.1 6.9 6.2 6.1

9.2% 12.8% 13.2%

Aecon Group Inc. Canada 626 21.9 16.1 14.4 6.7 6.0 5.6 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 9.9% 11.0% 10.5%

JGC Corp. Japan 4,151

19.4 0.0 8.3 8.0 2.3% 1.5% 1.5% 9.1% 11.6% 4.2%

Samsung Engineering Co South Korea 1,459 21.3 11.6 10.0 13.7 10.0 9.0

4.8% 3.7% 9.9% 11.4%

Average

19.5 13.8 13.4 8.7 7.9 7.6 3.0% 3.2% 3.6% 4.8% 9.5% 9.1%

Median

20.5 13.0 13.5 8.4 7.8 7.6 3.0% 3.2% 3.8% 4.8% 10.5% 8.1%

METKA Greece

10.2 12.3 14.6 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 12.9% 19.1% 14.9% Source: AXIA Research, Capital IQ

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 13

Appendix: Greek electricity market outlook

In the course of the implementation of the agreement with international creditors, Greece has taken

decisive steps over the last months towards the restructuring of the domestic electricity market. Key scope

of the measures introduced is to effectively open up the domestic electricity market by enhancing

competition in order to achieve the alignment with the EU target model (similar practices across EU markets

in order to facilitate future integration). In the same tune, policies to support domestic industrial production

are implemented.

The bulk of the key decisions related to the electricity market have already been legislated and are being

gradually implemented. Given the nature of the legislated schemes the progress and the effectiveness of

the said measures is expected to be monitored closely by both the Greek administration and the creditors

with the scope to take supplementary action if needed.

Table 14. Key energy market reforms included in the MoU

Agreement on the access – through auctions (NOME) - by alternative suppliers to the lower-cost

electricity production base of PPC, the incumbent, has been found, and will lead to a reduction of

the retail market share of the quasi-monopolist by 8% in 2016, 20% cumulated by 2017, and 50%

cumulated by 2020. In addition, after this transition phase (by 2020) no undertaking will be able to

produce or import, directly or indirectly, more than 50 percent of total electricity produced and

imported in Greece. (DONE)

Capacity payment scheme. Adopt the temporary capacity payment scheme, as approved by the

European Commission in March 2016. A permanent mechanism to be adopted by July 2017. (DONE-

On going)

HV tariffs. PPC will conclude the discussions on HV tariffs with all its customers by signing the

respective contracts, and the adopted tariffs shall be cost-based and take into account consumption

characteristics (profiles) of customers that affect costs. (DONE)

In the context of the implementation of the EU target model for the electricity market, transpose

into national legislation the high-level market design of EU target model for the electricity market.

(DONE-Ongoing)

IPTO spin-off and sale of a 24% stake to a strategic private investor (DONE) Source: EU Commission compliance report

Retail supply market share

Protergia has moved aggressively since late 2015 in the retail supply market. The company has managed to

register a three-fold increase in its market share and now is the largest independent power supplier, with a

market share of 2.99% as of October 2016.

As per the MoU provisions, PPC’s market share from the 88.8% recorded in October, has to gradually

decline to 50% by 2019. In this context management is now targeting a double digit market share figure by

2018.

Chart 3. Supply market share evolution for 2016

Source: IPTO, AXIA Research

94.7%

93.8% 93.4%

91.9%

91.0% 90.4% 90.6% 90.6%

89.0% 88.8%

85.0%

86.0%

87.0%

88.0%

89.0%

90.0%

91.0%

92.0%

93.0%

94.0%

95.0%

96.0%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct

PPC Heron Protergia Elpedison

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 14

NOME auctions

Within this context, NOME energy auctions were also launched in October as a tool to further support the

opening of the market, by allowing access to third parties to cheap lignite and hydro generation.

As the market operator has clarified, the actual volumes that will be auctioned will be determined by the

evolution of the market shares. As such, PPC auctioned in late October 2016 4,029TWh (12-month

contract). According to preliminary estimates form the market operator for 2017-18 c5.0TWh are to be

auctioned. Based to our estimates this corresponds to 30% of the total lignite and hydro generation of PPC

for the respective period.

The bid price in the first auction settled at EUR 37.5/MWh, very close to the starting price of EUR

37.37/MWh. This represents a 5.3% discount to the wholesale price for September.

RES account deficit

Recently the parliament voted the legislation of the Ministry of Energy regarding Renewable Energy Sources

(RES) account deficit reduction. According to the legislation, electricity suppliers will be called to cover the

account deficit in full by the end of 2017.

In terms of background on the issue, recall that in Greece RES are paid with pre-set Feed-in –Tariffs, that are

higher than the current market pool prices. This deficit is covered by i) a fee applied to consumers

(ETMEAR); ii) revenues from CO2 rights auctioning and; iii) levy on electricity suppliers.

According to the recently voted relevant legislation, the key themes are: i) no increase in ETMEAR (RES fee)

in consumers; ii) the deficit to be covered by electricity suppliers fee (PPC, Protergia, Herron etc); and iii)

deficit eliminated by end 2017.

According to the latest estimates of the market operator, electricity suppliers in 2017 will contribute EUR

371m in total to the RES account.

In respect of Mytilineos, given our assumptions for an average market share of about 6% in 2017, this yields

an expense of about EUR 20m. We understand that that the company has taken into account a relevant

charge in its profitability margins estimates and thereafter pricing offers.

Electricity market demand/supply dynamics are pushing CCGT load factors higher

Domestic electricity demand ytd is down by 1.6% ytd based on the latest market data, impacted by the

continued decline in of low voltage clients (-7.0% ytd), while medium and high voltage consumers have

ramped up their demand by about 8.0% ytd on average.

In respect of generation, the low natural gas prices and technical restrictions of lignite units have pushed

lignite output 26.3% lower, with natural gas fired units increasing their output volumes respectively.

In this context, Mytilineos CCGT units load factors in 2016 are averaging 38.6% vs. 16.4% in FY2015 and

10.3% in FY2014.

Chart 4a. Mytilineos CCGT units load factors Chart 4b. Electricity generation mix evolution

Source: IPTO, AXIA Research

According to market operator (IPTO) estimates, demand in the interconnected system is expected to grow

in 2017 by about 4.0% mainly driven by the integration with the mainland system of Cyclades islands (up till

now they operated on a stand-alone basis using mainly fuel oil generators).

In respect of generation, PPC’s lignite output is expected to remain on the same levels, while no major

addition of RES capacity is scheduled. This according to our model implies a further uptick in natural gas

production by about 2.0TWh that should push CCGT’s load factors close to the 50% mark.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 2015 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

oct

Jan

Ap

r

Jul

oct

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gas Lignite

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 15

In the medium to longer term, based on IPTO estimates demand in the country is seen growing on average

by 1.5% y-o-y as the economic activity picks up its pace. At the same PPC has scheduled the gradual

decommissioning of about 1.8GW of lignite units, with the first new lignite unit coming online in late 2019.

Based on these assumptions our electricity market model estimates, yield load factors for natural gas units

close or even above the 60% mark in the longer term.

Chart 5a. Domestic demand projections Chart 5b. Implied CCGT unit load factors for the Greek market

Source: IPTO, EU Commission, AXIA Research

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

54,000

56,000

58,000

60,000

Demand GDP (rhs)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 16

Detailed Financials – Mytilineos Group

Income Statement 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenues 1,453.6 1,403.0 1,232.6 1,382.9 1,277.2 1,422.4 1,436.1 1,434.1

COGS (1,251.9) (1,142.4) (934.7) (1,096.5) (1,081.5) (1,156.0) (1,165.2) (1,178.6)

Gross Profit 201.8 260.6 297.9 286.4 195.7 266.4 270.9 255.6

Other Expenses (34.3) (33.4) (43.2) (52.3) (20.0) (20.0) (20.0) (20.0)

EBITDA 167.4 227.2 254.7 234.1 215.7 286.4 290.9 275.6

EBITDA margin 11.5% 16.2% 20.7% 16.9% 16.9% 20.1% 20.3% 19.2%

Depreciation 63.3 67.1 57.1 59.9 59.2 56.4 56.6 56.8

EBIT 104.2 160.0 197.6 174.2 156.5 230.0 234.3 218.7

Other 3.4 (16.5) 0.6 (3.9) - - - -

Interest Income 3.3 5.3 9.2 3.0 7.1 8.8 10.4 10.7

Interest Expense (55.5) (75.1) (71.1) (64.6) (57.2) (45.6) (39.6) (34.8)

EBT 55.4 73.8 136.3 108.8 106.4 193.3 205.2 194.7

Income Tax (10.0) (13.1) (22.6) (28.4) (22.5) (54.8) (57.8) (54.2)

EAT 45.4 60.7 113.7 80.4 84.0 138.5 147.3 140.4

Minorities 26.3 44.6 48.5 28.2 24.8 17.1 14.6 14.1

Net Income 19.1 15.9 64.9 47.5 59.2 121.4 132.7 126.3

EPS 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.52 0.40 0.38

Balance Sheet 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Total Fixed assest 1,097.5 1,081.7 1,063.4 1,070.4 1,077.7 1,065.8 1,053.7 1,041.4

Investments 470.1 466.9 461.8 464.4 464.4 464.4 464.4 464.4

Other 98.8 125.0 167.8 303.4 303.4 303.4 303.4 303.4

Total non-current assets 1,666.4 1,673.6 1,693.0 1,838.2 1,845.5 1,833.6 1,821.5 1,809.2

Inventories 151.1 128.4 152.3 239.3 154.0 175.4 177.1 176.8

Receivables 767.0 671.6 518.4 620.0 752.3 693.7 704.3 730.8

Other 2.5 1.6 3.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

Cash and equivalent 136.6 181.8 313.4 200.9 218.1 297.6 397.9 472.7

Total current assets 1,057.2 983.4 987.7 1,061.2 1,125.5 1,167.8 1,280.3 1,381.4

Total Assets 2,723.7 2,656.9 2,680.7 2,899.4 2,971.0 3,001.4 3,101.8 3,190.6

Share Capital 403.25 335.53 335.53 323.84 323.84 323.84 323.84 323.84

Other 31.5 120.0 73.3 94.8 94.8 94.8 94.8 94.8

Retained earnings 364.5 401.4 500.7 545.8 593.1 653.8 740.1 822.2

Minority rights 176.2 233.4 251.7 266.0 290.8 307.8 322.5 336.6

Total Equity 975.5 1,090.3 1,161.2 1,230.3 1,302.5 1,380.2 1,481.1 1,577.3

Interest bearing Bonds and loans 22.6 435.1 524.0 404.3 440.0 440.0 440.0 440.0

Other non-current liabilities 305.4 356.4 278.1 294.1 294.1 294.1 294.1 294.1

Total non-current liabilities 328.0 791.5 802.1 698.4 734.1 734.1 734.1 734.1

Trade and other payables 501.0 469.0 485.1 567.3 497.8 500.4 529.9 542.5

Short term borrowings 306.6 91.6 120.7 166.0 200.0 150.0 120.0 100.0

Taxes payable 11.6 16.2 26.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.8

Other current liabilities 601.0 198.3 84.8 200.6 200.6 200.6 200.6 200.6

Total current liabilities 1,420.2 775.1 717.4 970.7 934.4 887.0 886.6 879.1

Total Equity and Liabilities 2,723.7 2,656.9 2,680.7 2,899.4 2,971.0 3,001.4 3,101.8 3,190.6

Cash Flow 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Gross cash flow from operating activities 111.3 129.8 111.9 137.2 131.0 148.0 143.6 135.1

WC Changes (101.4) 39.0 14.3 (227.0) (116.5) 39.9 17.2 (13.7)

Income tax paid (4.2) (4.7) (14.4) (20.8) (22.5) (54.8) (57.8) (54.2)

Net Cash from operating activities 3.1 162.7 171.1 (85.2) 18.8 225.9 210.8 172.8

Capex (95.1) (56.4) (47.1) (44.6) (66.5) (44.5) (44.5) (44.5)

Other investing (35.3) 48.8 6.6 (2.1) 7.1 8.8 10.4 10.7

Change in debt (121.7) (124.1) 1.1 32.9 69.7 (50.0) (30.0) (20.0)

Dividends paid (17.1) (8.4) (8.0) (13.8) (11.8) (60.7) (46.5) (44.2)

Other 12.4 25.0 (0.0) 0.2 - - - -

Net increase/(decrease) in cash (254.2) 47.8 123.6 (112.8) 17.3 79.5 100.2 74.8

Year start cash 83.0 136.6 181.8 313.4 200.9 218.1 297.6 397.9

End year cash (170.0) 181.8 313.4 200.9 218.1 297.6 397.9 472.7

Source: The Company, AXIA Research

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 17

Per share data 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

EPS 0.18 0.14 0.56 0.41 0.51 1.04 1.14 1.08

BVPS 7.49 7.58 7.78 8.25 8.65 9.17 9.91 10.61

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.52 0.40 0.38

Valuation ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

P/E 24.5 x 39.5 x 8.2 x 9.0 x 11.6 x 5.6 x 5.2 x 5.4 x

EV/EBITDA 7.1 x 5.0 x 3.6 x 4.1 x 5.8 x 3.7 x 3.1 x 2.9 x

EV/EBIT 11.4 x 7.1 x 4.6 x 5.5 x 8.0 x 4.6 x 3.8 x 3.7 x

EV/Sales 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 1.0 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 0.6 x

P/BV 0.6 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x

Div. yield 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 1.7% 8.9% 6.8% 6.5%

FCF yield % (vs. EV) -10.7% 13.6% 14.4% -13.8% -3.2% 18.2% 19.7% 17.3%

ROA 1.7% 2.3% 4.3% 2.9% 2.9% 4.6% 4.8% 4.5%

ROE 2.5% 1.9% 7.3% 5.1% 6.0% 11.7% 11.9% 10.5%

ROIC 1.0% 0.8% 3.4% 2.5% 2.8% 5.6% 6.3% 6.0%

Growth rates 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenues -7.5% -3.5% -12.1% 12.2% -7.6% 11.4% 1.0% -0.1%

EBITDA -13.0% 35.7% 12.1% -8.1% -7.9% 32.8% 1.6% -5.3%

EBIT -35.4% 53.7% 23.5% -11.8% -10.2% 47.0% 1.9% -6.7%

EBT -49.8% 33.2% 84.7% -20.2% -2.2% 81.6% 6.1% -5.1%

Net Income -55.2% -16.5% 307.9% -26.7% 24.5% 105.2% 9.3% -4.8%

Profitability ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Gross margin 13.9% 18.6% 24.2% 20.7% 15.3% 18.7% 18.9% 17.8%

EBITDA margin 11.5% 16.2% 20.7% 16.9% 16.9% 20.1% 20.3% 19.2%

EBIT margin 7.2% 11.4% 16.0% 12.6% 12.3% 16.2% 16.3% 15.3%

Net Income margin 1.3% 1.1% 5.3% 3.4% 4.6% 8.5% 9.2% 8.8%

Summary Table 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenues 1,453.6 1,403.0 1,232.6 1,382.9 1,277.2 1,422.4 1,436.1 1,434.1

EBITDA 167.4 227.2 254.7 234.1 215.7 286.4 290.9 275.6

EBITDA margin 11.5% 16.2% 20.7% 16.9% 16.9% 20.1% 20.3% 19.2%

Net Income 19.1 15.9 64.9 47.5 59.2 121.4 132.7 126.3

EPS 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1

(Net Debt)/Cash 724.8 509.7 373.4 526.7 571.9 362.4 212.1 117.3

P/E 24.5 x 39.5 x 8.2 x 9.0 x 11.6 x 5.6 x 5.2 x 5.4 x

EV/EBITDA 7.1 x 5.0 x 3.6 x 4.1 x 5.8 x 3.7 x 3.1 x 2.9 x

Div. yield 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 1.7% 8.9% 6.8% 6.5%

Source: The Company, AXIA Research

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 18

Detailed Financials – METKA

Income Statement 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenues 547.5 606.5 609.3 668.0 492.2 415.3 350.0 337.0

(-)COGS (434.2) (482.7) (493.4) (536.3) (409.6) (353.1) (296.3) (285.7)

Gross Profit 113.3 123.8 115.9 131.7 82.7 62.2 53.7 51.3

Other Expenses (25.2) (26.0) (15.7) (19.1) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0) (12.0)

EBITDA 93.0 102.0 103.3 116.3 70.7 50.2 41.7 39.3

EBITDA margin 17.0% 16.8% 17.0% 17.4% 14.4% 12.1% 11.9% 11.7%

adj. EBITDA 93.0 102.0 103.3 116.3 70.7 50.2 41.7 39.3

Depreciation 4.9 4.3 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7

EBIT 88.1 97.7 99.7 112.6 66.5 45.9 37.2 34.6

Other 0.8 (1.7) (0.1) (0.2) - - - -

Interest Income 5.3 5.2 7.8 3.5 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.3

Interest Expense (9.7) (14.7) (9.7) (15.4) (11.0) (7.0) (5.0) (4.0)

EBT 84.5 86.5 97.7 100.5 57.4 41.4 35.2 33.9

Income Tax (13.5) 5.0 (8.0) (31.3) (14.4) (9.1) (7.7) (7.5)

EAT 84.5 91.5 89.8 69.2 43.1 32.3 27.5 26.4

Minori ties 0.9 (0.1) - 0.3 6.5 1.8 1.8 1.8

Net Income 70.1 91.7 90.2 68.9 36.6 30.5 25.7 24.6

EPS 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5

Declared Dividend (Tota l ) 13.0 14.0 23.4 6.2 5.5 4.6 3.9 3.7

DPS 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Balance Sheet 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Total Fixed assest 57.5 54.2 49.4 48.2 49.0 49.7 50.2 50.4

Investments 4.0 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

Other 18.1 44.4 79.8 220.7 220.7 220.7 220.7 220.7

Total non-current assets 79.6 101.0 131.5 271.0 271.9 272.6 273.0 273.3

Inventories 37.4 31.5 50.6 120.8 40.5 34.1 28.8 27.7

Receivables 544.2 532.1 408.7 554.2 559.7 432.4 326.0 313.9

Other 2.0 1.2 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash and equiva lent 100.0 134.5 288.3 154.6 190.7 254.1 304.5 327.3

Total current assets 683.6 699.3 750.1 829.6 790.9 720.6 659.3 669.0

Total Assets 763.2 800.3 881.6 1,100.6 1,062.7 993.2 932.3 942.3

Share Capita l 45.04 45.19 39.79 40.19 40.19 40.19 40.19 40.19

Other (2.1) (0.7) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6)

Retained earnings 309.9 388.5 468.3 510.8 541.9 567.9 589.7 610.6

Minori ty rights 17.2 16.8 0.2 0.6 7.1 8.9 10.7 12.5

Total Equity 370.0 449.9 507.8 551.0 588.6 616.3 640.0 662.7

Interest bearing Bonds and loans 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Other non-current l iabi l i ties 124.0 102.0 58.9 87.2 87.2 87.2 87.2 87.2

Total non-current liabilities 126.8 104.4 61.0 88.9 88.9 88.9 88.9 88.9

Trade and other payables 207.7 231.6 294.7 395.3 319.8 222.5 138.0 125.2

Short term borrowings 48.4 7.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

Taxes payable 4.7 2.8 12.6 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1

Other current l iabi l i ties 5.6 4.4 3.2 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.9 34.9

Total current liabilities 266.5 246.1 312.8 460.7 385.2 287.9 203.4 190.6

Total Equity and Liabilities 763.2 800.3 881.6 1,100.6 1,062.7 993.2 932.3 942.3

Cash Flow 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

EBT 84.5 86.5 98.3 100.5 57.4 41.4 35.2 33.9

Non-Cash Adjustments (1.5) 1.0 (22.8) 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.5

WC Changes (104.8) (3.9) 101.1 (184.8) (0.6) 36.3 27.2 0.4

Income tax pa id (2.5) (2.0) (11.0) (17.4) (14.4) (9.1) (7.7) (7.5)

Net Cash from operating activities 24.2- 81.6 165.6 100.1- 44.7 70.4 56.2 28.3

Capex (3.0) (1.2) (7.3) (2.6) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0) (5.0)

Other investing (38.3) 12.0 8.6 (34.8) 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.3

Change in debt 36.1 (41.5) (5.2) 29.7 - - - -

Dividends pa id (39.0) (13.8) (15.8) (26.1) (5.5) (4.6) (3.9) (3.7)

Other 0.5 (2.6) 8.0 0.2 - - - -

Net increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalent (67.9) 34.5 153.8 (133.7) 36.1 63.4 50.4 22.9

Year start cash 167.9 100.0 134.5 288.3 154.6 190.7 254.1 304.5

End year cash 100.0 134.5 288.4 154.6 190.7 254.1 304.5 327.3

Source: The Company, AXIA Research

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 19

Per share data 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

EPS 1.35 1.76 1.74 1.33 0.70 0.59 0.49 0.47

BVPS 6.79 8.33 9.76 10.59 11.18 11.68 12.10 12.50

DPS 0.25 0.27 0.45 0.12 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.07

Valuation ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

P/E 4.9 x 3.8 x 3.8 x 5.0 x 10.2 x 12.3 x 14.6 x 15.2 x

EV/EBITDA 3.2 x 2.1 x 0.6 x 1.7 x 2.7 x 2.5 x 1.8 x 1.3 x

EV/EBIT 3.3 x 2.2 x 0.6 x 1.7 x 2.8 x 2.7 x 2.0 x 1.5 x

EV/Sales 0.5 x 0.4 x 0.1 x 0.3 x 0.4 x 0.3 x 0.2 x 0.2 x

P/BV 1.0 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x

Div. yield 3.8% 4.1% 6.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%

FCF yield % -8.4% 29.8% 54.9% -30.8% 12.9% 19.1% 14.9% 7.3%

ROA 9.0% 11.7% 10.7% 7.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6%

ROE 19.8% 22.4% 18.8% 13.0% 6.4% 5.1% 4.1% 3.8%

ROIC 19.4% 21.1% 25.5% 17.9% 7.5% 6.5% 5.8% 5.8%

ROCE 27.6% 28.4% 32.9% 22.1% 9.1% 7.9% 7.3% 7.3%

Growth rates 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenues -45.4% 10.8% 0.5% 9.6% -26.3% -15.6% -15.7% -3.7%

EBITDA -42.2% 9.7% 1.3% 12.6% -39.3% -28.9% -17.0% -5.7%

EBIT -43.7% 10.9% 2.0% 13.0% -40.9% -31.0% -19.0% -6.9%

EBT -43.2% 2.4% 13.0% 2.8% -42.8% -27.9% -15.0% -3.8%

Net Income -39.1% 30.7% -1.6% -23.6% -46.9% -16.6% -15.9% -4.0%

Profitability ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Gross margin 20.7% 20.4% 19.0% 19.7% 16.8% 15.0% 15.3% 15.2%

EBITDA margin 17.0% 16.8% 17.0% 17.4% 14.4% 12.1% 11.9% 11.7%

EBIT margin 16.1% 16.1% 16.4% 16.9% 13.5% 11.0% 10.6% 10.3%

Net Income margin 12.8% 15.1% 14.8% 10.3% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% 7.3%

Source: Metka, AXIA VG Research

Summary Table 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Revenues 547.5 606.5 609.3 668.0 492.2 415.3 350.0 337.0

EBITDA 93.0 102.0 103.3 116.3 70.7 50.2 41.7 39.3

EBITDA margin 17.0% 16.8% 17.0% 17.4% 14.4% 12.1% 11.9% 11.7%

Net Income 70.1 91.7 90.2 68.9 36.6 30.5 25.7 24.6

EPS 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5

(Net Debt)/Cash 48.9 124.9 283.9 150.5 186.6 250.0 300.4 323.2

P/E 4.9 x 3.8 x 3.8 x 5.0 x 10.2 x 12.3 x 14.6 x 15.2 x

EV/EBITDA 3.2 x 2.1 x 0.6 x 1.7 x 2.7 x 2.5 x 1.8 x 1.3 x

Div. yield 3.8% 4.1% 6.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%

Source: The Company, AXIA Research

Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 20

Disclosures

General information This research report was prepared by AXIA Ventures Group Limited, a company incorporated under the laws of Cyprus (referred to herein, together with its subsidiary companies and affiliates, collectively, as “AXIA”) which is authorised and regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (authorisation number 086/07). AXIA is authorized to provide investment services in the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Greece and in Portugal pursuant to its permissions under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive and may also provide similar services in other countries, inside or outside of the European Union, subject to the applicable provisions. AXIA Ventures Group Limited is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.), and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In the U.S., this research report is intended solely for persons who meet the definition of “major U.S. institutional investors” in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, as amended, or persons listed under Rule 15a-6(4)) and is meant to be disseminated only through “Axia Capital Markets LLC”, a wholly owned subsidiary of AXIA Ventures Group Limited and associated US registered broker-dealer in accordance with Rule 15a-6 of the US Securities and Exchange Act. Content of the report The persons in charge of the preparation of this report, the names of whom are disclosed below, certify that the views and opinions expressed on the subject security, issuer, companies or businesses covered by this research report (each a “Subject Company” and, collectively, the “Subject Companies”) are their personal opinions and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Whilst all substantial sources of information for the research are indicated in this report, including, without limitation, bases of valuation applied to any security or derivative security, such information has not been disclosed to the Subject Companies for their comments and no such information is hereby certified. All information contained herein is subject to change at any time without notice. No member of AXIA has an obligation to update, modify or amend this research report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the Subject Company is withdrawn. Further, past performance is not indicative of future results. Persons responsible for this report: Constantinos Zouzoulas (analyst). Key Definitions

AXIA Research 12-month rating*

Buy The stock to generate total return** of and above 10% within the next 12-months

Neutral The stock to generate total return**between -10% and 10% within the next 12-months

Sell The stock to generate total return** of and below -10% within the next 12 months

Under Review Stock’s target price or rating is subject to possible change

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Rating history for MYTILINEOS S.A.

Date Rating Share Price (EUR) Target Price (EUR)

21/10/2014 Buy 5.67 10.20

24/02/2016 Buy 2.88 6.30

24/11/2016 Buy 5.86 8.60

Rating history for METKA

Date Rating Share Price (EUR) Target Price (EUR)

21/10/2014 Buy 5.67 13.20

24/02/2016 Buy 2.88 9.30

xx/11/2016 Neutral 7.20 7.80

AXIA Ventures Group Limited Rating Distribution as of today

Coverage Universe Count Percent Of which Investment

Banking Relationships Count Percent

Buy 10 58% 3 3 17.6%

Neutral 6 35% Sell

Restricted Not Rated

Under Review 1 6%

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Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 21

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Mytilineos Group/METKA – Company Update

AXIA Research Page 22

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