n. barry lyons consulting; 2012 update for new construction condos in toronto

Investors Rule! Dynamics of the GTA Condo Apartment Market

Presentation to the Toronto Condo Network By: N. Barry Lyon and Jasmine Cracknell

March 2nd, 2012

N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited 3 Church Street, Suite 100, Toronto ON M5E 1M2

(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Source: UrbanToronto, 3Dementia, February 2010

Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board and NBLC

51% 43% 45%

50% 48% 51%

44% 42% 49%

56%

48%

49%

57% 55%

50% 52%

49%

56% 58%

51%

44%

52%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F

# U

nit

s

High-Rise Marketplace Yearly New Sales and Resales Greater Toronto Area, 2002 to 2012F

Resales

New Sales

199 High-Rise Apartment Buildings, 46,387 Units Completed Since 2000

(Dufferin, Bloor, DVP and Lake Ontario)


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

905 416

Tota

l Sal

es

(# U

nit

s)

New High-Rise Sales 905 vs 416 Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto

Tota

l Sal

es

(# U

nit

s)

New High-Rise Sales By Former 416 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Tota

l Sal

es

(# U

nit

s)

New High-Rise Sales By 905 Municipalities, 2006 to 2011

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com



Studio 4%

1-Bed 20%

1-Bed+Den 28%

2-Bed 21%

2-Bed+Den 20%

3-Bed & Up 2%

Penthouse 3%

Other 2%

New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, 2005

Studio 2%

1-Bed 21%

1-Bed+Den 34%

2-Bed 24%

2-Bed+Den 12%

3-Bed & Up 2%

Penthouse 3%

Other 2%

New High-Rise Sales By Unit Type Greater Toronto Area, January 2012


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Source: RealNet Canada Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board and NBLC

Source: NBLC, RealNet Canada Inc. and RBC

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000Ja

n-0

6

Ap

r-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

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-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

Ave

rage

Sal

e P

rice

Nu

mb

er

of

Sale

s

Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing Greater Toronto Area, 2006 to 2012

New Sales Resales New Price Resale Price


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com



0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Jan

-05

Ap

r-05

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Jan

-06

Ap

r-06

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan

-07

Ap

r-07

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan

-08

Ap

r-08

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan

-09

Ap

r-09

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan

-10

Ap

r-10

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct

-11

Jan

-12

# o

f A

ctiv

e H

igh

-Ris

e S

ite

Un

sold

Inve

nto

ry (

# o

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New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count Greater Toronto Area, 2005 to 2012

High Rise Inventory

High Rise Site Count

8,534

3,906

9,832

12,279

10,066

15,046

14,608

15,407

12,942

11,783

15,788

14,102

24,938

25,454

21,608

7,576

2,303

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F

Total Units

New High-Rise Occupancies Greater Toronto Area, 2000 to 2016F


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com


Opera – 741 square foot Three-Bedroom Unit at Peter Street Condos

Source: Site Marketing Materials

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

920

940

Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12

Ave

rage

Un

it S

ize

(sq

. ft.

) New High-Rise Average Unit Size (sq. ft.)

Greater Toronto Area, 2004 to 2012

905’s New Downtowns


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com



(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Mississauga

Vaughan



(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Richmond Hill

Changing Dynamic of Downtown Toronto


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Planned New Downtown Toronto Office Buildings

Source: BMO Capital Markets

10 York

Waterfront Parks Coming Along Underpass Park – Waterfront Toronto

]

Changing Dynamic of Downtown Toronto


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Underpass Park, Waterfront Toronto

Pan Am Athlete’s Village: 2015

View East from Front and Cherry

Transit Solutions


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

Union Station Redevelopment Doubling Capacity

Where Should Transit Go? Downtown Relief Line?

The Big Unknown – Future Role of Investors


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Investor Driven Condo Launch Format


(416) 364-4414 www.nblc.com

STAGES DESCRIPTION

First round of selling, lowest possible pricing. Investors purchase with a “Platinum Agent”. A Platinum Agent is a high-volume broker or sales representative who has the best relationships with condo developers. Platinum Agents typically sell 10 or more units in a project (sometimes as much as 50 units). These units are usually ‘allocated’ in advance. Typically 10-15 Platinum Agents in a given project.

A VIP Agent is a broker or sales representative that has sold a unit or multiple units for the specific developer in the past. A typical project launch will have anywhere from 50-300 VIP agents. These agents will NOT have units allocated to them in advance.

Once the VIP stage is over, the developer will open its doors to all brokers and sales representatives. Again, prices are typically raised for this new phase of selling. Individual investors and buyers, however, are still not permitted to walk in and purchase without the representation of a broker or agent.

At the start of sales, the developer will typically launch a website for the project (i.e. ABCcondos.com). The website will provide very limited details, and include a ‘registration form’ for individual investors and buyers. It is usually during this phase where individuals are asked to come in and purchase providing them priority over the general public.

By this phase, the developer will have started their major ad campaign, creating awareness for the project to the general public. This is often accompanied by a ‘Grand Opening’ event, where the public is invited to come in and purchase.

1 PLATINUM AGENTS

2 VIP AGENTS

3 GENERAL AGENTS

4 PRE-REGISTRATION

5 PUBLIC GRAND OPENING