narrchrp: ecological modeling mark j. brush virginia institute of marine science annual managers’...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling
Mark J. BrushVirginia Institute of Marine Science
Annual Managers’ MeetingCHRP Narragansett Bay Project
October 2008
![Page 2: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
USE OF MODELS IN MANAGEMENT
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
NU
MB
ER
OF
PU
BL
ICA
TIO
NS
.
Riley(1946, 1947)
Steele
(1974)a
Kremer & Nixon
(1978)b
ERSEM I d;Rigler & Peters
(1995)
ASFA SEARCH FOR "ECOSYSTEM MODEL"
Odum(1983)
Baretta &Ruardij
(1988)c
ERSEM II e
Odum(1994)
Chesapeake Bay Model f
(2007)
131
![Page 3: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Generality
Realism
Precision
R. Levins
(1966, 1968)
Empirical Models
Complex, Mechanistic
SystemsModels
A Simplified, Intermediate Complexity Model
MODELS …
A TRADEOFF BETWEEN:
![Page 4: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Phytoplankton
Nutrients
Oxygen BOD
Sed Carbon
Estuarine Eutrophication Model
![Page 5: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
1. Phyto
Production
5. MacroMetabolism
3. C flux to sediments
* Need to accurately model both states and rates
Estuarine Eutrophication Model
2. Water Column Respiration
4. Denitrification
6. Sediment Respiration
![Page 6: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
1
2
3
4 5
876 9
11 12
10
13 14
RI Sound
Boxing Scheme
![Page 7: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Boxing Scheme: Physical Exchanges
3D ROMS ModelOfficer Box Model
![Page 8: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Freshwater Inputs
• Watersheds delineated for each box
• 7 gauged rivers extrapolated to include ungauged areas.
• Flow in the completely ungauged watersheds was computed from flow/area for the Hunt watershed.
• 2001 - 2006
Box Model: Exchanges = f(freshwater, salinity)
![Page 9: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Salinity Distributions
• Current: Simple seasonal functions using Insomniacs and GSO data.
• Future: include event-scale with buoy data
Box 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J F M A M J J A S O N D
S3
B3
S_bulr
B_bulr
S3
B3
Box Model: Exchanges = f(freshwater, salinity)
![Page 10: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
2:56 PM Thu, Aug 14, 2008
Untitled
Page 81.00 548.25 1095.50 1642.75 2190.00
Days
1:
1:
1:
2:
2:
2:
3:
3:
3:
0
50
100
1: RTprovriv 2: RTgbay 3: RTnbay
1 1 1 12
2
2 2
3
3
3
3
Computed Residence Times
Providence River (Box 1-3)
Greenwich Bay (Box 6-7)
Entire Narragansett BayR
T,
DA
YS
1/1/01 12/31/06
Box Model: Computed Residence Times
![Page 11: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Ecological Model:
How are we doing?
![Page 12: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Ecological Model: Surface Chl-a
![Page 13: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Ecological Model: Surface DIN
![Page 14: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Ecological Model: Surface DIP
![Page 15: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Ecological Model: Bottom DO
![Page 16: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Current Directions:
• Calibration to Chl-a, DIN, DIP, and rates
• Finish GEM Box and compare the physical approaches
• Formulation to translate predicted DO and metabolism to instantaneous criteria
Potential Applications:
• Understanding formation, spread, & alleviation of hypoxia in NB
• Effect of changes in nutrient loading
• Effect of climate warming
• Effect of loss of spring bloom
• Stochastic simulation to assess Pr.(criteria attainment)
Ecological Model
![Page 17: NarrCHRP: Ecological Modeling Mark J. Brush Virginia Institute of Marine Science Annual Managers’ Meeting CHRP Narragansett Bay Project October 2008](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062422/56649f2b5503460f94c45670/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Stochastic Simulation
Bottom O2
Surface Chl- a, mg/m3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
J F M A M J J A S O N DBottom O2, mg/L
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
J F M A M J J A S O N D