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National Flood WorkshopNational Flood WorkshopDr. Thomas Graziano

Chief Hydrologic Services DivisionNational Weather Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

•Growing Water Issues•America needs improved and expanded water resource services

•Water Forecasting Challenges•Enhanced Hydrologic Decision Support

•Water Resources Vision 2020•New and Expanded Services

•Foundation for Services Transformation•Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)•Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

• Inter-Agency Collaboration• Integrated Water Resources Science & Services (IWRSS)

•Enhancing Support for RFCs & WFOs•National Water Center Vision

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Growing Water IssuesGrowing Water Issues Too Much, Too Little, Poor QualityToo Much, Too Little, Poor Quality

Growing need for water resource forecasts:

•Population growth and economic development are stressing water supplies and increasing vulnerability

•A changing climate is impacting water availability and quality

•Socio-economic risks of floods and droughts are escalating

Decision-makers in water management sectors need:

•Expanded/new high resolution information in space and time

•Quantification of uncertainty to manage risk

•Enhanced communication of flood risk

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Enhancing Hydrologic Decision Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportSupport

Forecast Lead Time

Protection of Life & Property

State/Local Planning

Environment

Flood Mitigation & Navigation

Agriculture Health Commerce Reservoir Control

Forecast Uncertainty

• Quantify and communicate uncertainty • Develop next generation probabilistic

hydrologic forecasts

• Improve graphical delivery of forecasts• Shift towards conveyance of potential forecast

flood impacts with inundation maps

• Address evolving climate• “Stationary is dead”• Increased precipitation intensity and variability

• Enhance forecasts of extreme flood events • Atlanta, September 2009• Nashville, May 2010• Arkansas, May 2010• South Texas, July 2010

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• Provide spatial extent and depth of flood waters

• Display inundation maps for levels from minor flooding through flood of record

• Better mitigate impacts of flooding and build more resilient communities

• Libraries include NWS flood severity categories and regulatory FEMA flood frequency maps

Implementation Status:

56 Flood Inundation Map Libraries

Continued Partnership with FEMA, USACE, USGS, States, & Others water.weather.gov

Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportEnhancing Hydrologic Decision Support

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction ServiceAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Flood Inundation MappingFlood Inundation Mapping

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Precipitation Page EnhancementsPrecipitation Page Enhancements

Improved Processing• More frequent updates

Enhanced Interface• RIDGE2 / Google Interface• User-Selectable Durations• Additional Download formats

Expanded Precipitation Data• Increase geographic domain

(Alaska and Hawaii)• Increase temporal resolution• Expand archive (pre-2005)

radar.srh.noaa.gov

Enhancing Hydrologic Decision SupportEnhancing Hydrologic Decision Support

Advanced Hydrologic Prediction ServiceAdvanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

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Water Resources Vision 2020Water Resources Vision 2020

Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support Deliver a broader suite of improved water services to support management of the Nation’s Water Supplymanagement of the Nation’s Water Supply

Provide resources and training to:• Enable RFCs to run high-resolution models and produce gridded forecasts of

streamflow, salinity, and soil moisture

• Expand role of the WFOs to help local decision makers use enhanced water forecasts, and function as decision-support experts for high-impact flood, drought, and water quality events

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Community Hydrologic Prediction Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)System (CHPS)

Flexible, open modeling architecture Flexible, open modeling architecture linkinglinking program elements program elements

Implementation Status:CHPS prototype hardware & software at all 13 RFCsConducting parallel operations at 4 RFCs,

remaining 9 by early 2011

Retire legacy NWSRFS system in early 2012

Models from Federal,

State, Local, University

and Partners

FCFEWS

FEWS Models

NWS Models

USACE Models

Other Models

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Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)Service (HEFS)

Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisionsProbabilistic information to support risk-based decisions

• Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS

Implementation Status: Demonstrating components of short-

term capability at 6 RFCs

Will deploy additional prototypes during the next 2 years

Initial version of full capability in 2013

• Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties

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NOAA leading multi-agency consortium to:

•Share technology, information, models, best practices

• Improve the accuracy and timeliness of water information

•Provide new high-resolution water resources information and forecasts

•Streamline/integrate access to Federal water resource information

•Create a Common Operating Picture Status:

IWRSS MOU

Team Charter on System Interoperability and Data Synchronization

Team Charter on National Flood Inundation Mapping Services

Integrated Water Resources Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)Science and Services (IWRSS)

USGSUSGSUSGSUSGS

USACEUSACEUSACEUSACE NOAANOAA NOAANOAA

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““Summit-to-sea” high-resolution water resources information & forecastsSummit-to-sea” high-resolution water resources information & forecasts

Watershed to National Information

ss

Snowpack

Snow Water EquivalentRunoff

Streamflow

Soil Moisture

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Water Quality

Groundwater

Snowpack

Snow Water EquivalentRunoff

Streamflow

Soil Moisture

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

Water Quality

Groundwater

Integrated Water Resources Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)Science and Services (IWRSS)

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Implementation ThemesImplementation Themes

Integrated Water Resources Integrated Water Resources Science and ServicesScience and Services (IWRSS)(IWRSS)

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Combine hydrologic forecasting operations and research to fill several critical gaps:Combine hydrologic forecasting operations and research to fill several critical gaps:

National Water Center VisionNational Water Center VisionAddressing IWRSS ObjectivesAddressing IWRSS Objectives

• Provide new high-resolution forecasts of water resource variables to help decision makers manage increasingly limited water supply

• Extend river and flood forecasting to provide maps showing forecasted spatial extent and depth of flooding

• Integrate water resources information to provide one-stop shopping for stakeholders

• Establish multi-agency proving ground to leverage capabilities and accelerate R2O

• Establish Common Operating Picture