National Hurricane Conference

Mr. Mark WelshingerOffice of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology

Theme: “Hurricane Season 2006:

Building on theHistoric 2005 Season”

March 20-24, 2006Mobile, Alabama

Update on 60th Interdepartmental

Hurricane Conference

• IHC BACKGROUND

• SUCCESSES AND CHALLENGES

• IHC WORKSHOP

• SUMMARY

Overview

IHC Background

• Annual interagency conference:– Hosted by Office of the Federal Coordinator for

Meteolorolgy– Two major thrusts:

• To review the Nation's hurricane forecast and warning program

• Make recommendations on how to improve the program

• Extensive 4-day agenda (operations and research)– Highlight successes– Focus on challenges– Highlight forthcoming capabilities to meet challenges

• Strong scientific (atmospheric/oceanography) focus

Successes and Challenges

• Successes

– Joint Hurricane Test Bed

– Joint hurricane field experiments

– Advances in modeling / data assimilation

– Improved reconnaissance & observing capabilities

– Improvements in track and intensity forecast accuracy

35-Year Atlantic Track Errors

Successes and Challenges

Intensity Forecasts On The Upswing

Successes and Challenges

• Challenges:

• Modeling / data assimilation / computing power

• Reconnaissance and observing

• Improved forecast accuracy for:

– Storm intensity / structure

– Storm track

– Storm surge

– Inland flooding

• Information dissemination (technology, message)

– Incorporating results of social science research into

operations

Successes and Challenges

Moderators: Dr. Betty Morrow (Soc Research) Mr. Bryan Norcross (WFOR/CBS)

Presenters: Mr. Paul Trotter, NWS (WFO New Orleans / Baton Rouge)

Dr. Brenda D. Phillips, Co-Director, Center for the Study

of Disasters and Extreme Events, Oklahoma State U.

Dr. Velma J. Deleveaux, Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc.

Ms. Naomi Moye, Abraham’s Group

IHC Workshop

Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer

IHC Workshop

Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer

• New proposed communications model

• Results of social science research needs to be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program

• Tropical cyclone community needs to seek opportunities to identify social science research priorities

IHC Workshop

• NOAA, in conjunction with its partners, should work with diverse user groups to develop and test message format modifications

• Research should be encouraged and supported to develop and test modifications to current terminology used to define levels of hurricane threat (e.g., watch, warning, CAT 1-5, etc.)

Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer

IHC Workshop

-The OFCM will coordinate bringing together appropriate federal agencies

-Begin process of reviewing and improving National hurricane warning “system”

Results: Getting the “Right” Message to the Customer

Summary

• Social science research results becoming “mainstreamed” into Nation’s hurricane forecast and warning program

• Forthcoming review of messages and hurricane warning “system”