national integrated drought information system (nidis ) drought … · 2019-05-05 · high range....
TRANSCRIPT
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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
14 May 2019
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National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin
14 May 2019
If You’re New to the Webinar..• Join from PC, Mac, Linux, iOS,
or Android:https://auburn.zoom.us/j/3348441163
• Join by telephone:1. Dial – 1 646 876 9923 OR
1 669 900 68332. Enter Meeting Code:
334 844 1163
*Please put your phone and/or microphone on mute to avoid
audio interference
*We welcome comments, questions, and discussion at the end of the
webinar
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What’s Ahead
Welcome• Rachel McGuire - Auburn University Water Resources Center
Speakers
» David Zierden - Florida Climate Center; FSU» Paul Ankcorn - USGS
» Jeffrey Dobur - SERFC» Cynthia Donald - USACE
Discussion
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Current Drought Status, Seasonal Forecasts and
Outlooks
David Zierden
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Wettest 12-month period in U.S. History
6
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Wildfire Risk
7
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Rainfall – Last 7 Days
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Rainfall – Last 30 Days
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Rainfall Surplus/Deficit – Last 90 Days
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Next Week
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7-Day Quantitative Precip. Forecast
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Current Sea Surface Temperatures
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Subsurface Temperatures
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El Nino Forecast
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NOAA 3-Month Outlook (April – June)
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Take Home Messages• Lowest drought coverage since 2000 for the U.S., wettest 12 months on record
• Good coverage of 1-2 inches in the last week, more in SW Georgia.
• Middle and lower ACF with 2-4 inch deficits over last 90 days, sharp gradient to above normal near the headwaters
• 7-day forecast mostly dry for the Southeast
• El Nino conditions still entrenched – 80% likelihood through spring, near 60% through summer and into fall
• CPC seasonal forecast (March - May) favors higher chances for warm temperature, higher chances for above normal rainfall
• El Nino loses much of its influence on weather patterns in late spring/summer
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State of Alabama Input
provided byTom Littlepage
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Current Alabama Drought Declaration:
April 23, 2019
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Next Meeting of the Alabama Monitoring and Impact Group (MIG):
May 14, 2019 @ 1 pm CST(Immediately after this Webinar)
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Streamflows and Groundwater
Paul Ankcorn
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Real-time Stream Flow Compared with Historical Monthly Averages
Current:»
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief:
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Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows
Below normal 7-day average streamflow as
compared with historical streamflow for day shown
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Current:
Previous Brief:
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Lake Lanier Inflows
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chattahoochee River near Cornelia (02331600)
Chestatee River near Dahlonega (02333500)
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28-day Average Streamflow
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000)
Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)
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28-day Average Streamflow
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)
Chattahoochee at Columbus (02341460)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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28-day Average Streamflow
Flint River near Griffin (02344500)
Flint River near Carsonville (02347500)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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28-day Average Streamflow
Flint River at Albany (02352500)
Flint River at Bainbridge (02356000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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28-day Average Streamflow
» Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee (02358000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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Real-time Groundwater Conditions
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief Current Brief
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Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001
(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
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Groundwater Status – Dougherty County 11K003
(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
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Summary
• Real-time streamflow in the ACF basin are currently in the normal to high range.
• 28-day average streamflow at Chattahoochee River at Cornelia and Chestatee River at Dahlonega are currently in the much above normal range.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Chattahoochee River below Lake Lanier are currently in much above normal range.
• 28-day average streamflow for the Flint River are currently in the normal to much above normal range.
• Groundwater levels range from much below normal to above normal across the ACF Basin.
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Streamflow Forecasts
Jeffrey Dobur
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Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
1-Month Mean Daily Streamflow ForecastsApalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
May 14th – June 14th
2019
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Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
Vinings
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
5%
28%
67%12%
40%48%
28%
36%36%
20%
40%40%
17%
49%
34%
May 14th – August 14th
2019
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Summary
• 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Above Normal Chattahoochee, Near Normal Apalachicola and Flint
• 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Above Normal Upper Chattahoochee, Near Normal Middle Chattahoochee, Near Normal Apalachicola and Flint
• Pie Charts do not directly include any adjustments to the ESP forecast based on ENSO, CPC or other. Based on soil conditions relative to normal in concert with historical precipitation.
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USACE – ACF Reservoir Conditions
Cynthia Donald
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
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BUILDING STRONG®
Summary
• All projects are currently at or above guide curve.
• Continuing to meet downstream minimum flow requirements.
• The ACF system conservation storage is in Zone 1 and is forecasted to stay in Zone 1 for the next few weeks.
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Questions or Comments?
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Acknowledgements
Speakers» David Zierden, FSU» Paul Ankcorn, USGS» Jeffrey Dobur, SERFC» Cynthia Donald, USACE
Moderator» Rachel McGuire, AUWRC
Additional Information» General Drought Information
• www.drought.gov• www.drought.unl.edu
» General Climate and El Nino Information• www.agroclimate.org/climate/
» Streamflow Monitoring and Forecasting• www.waterwatch.usgs.gov• www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/
» Groundwater Monitoring• www.groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
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Thank YouRachel McGuire334 844 [email protected]/wrc
Next Webinar: Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at 1:00 pm ET
Slides from this briefing will be posted at:aaes.auburn.edu/wrc/extension-outreach/droughtwebinar/