national lab for remote sensing and nowcasting dual polarization radar and rainfall nowcasting by...
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National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
Dual Polarization Radar and Rainfall Nowcasting
• by Mark Alliksaar
National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
Dual Polarization can potentially improve rainfall nowcasting in three ways:
1. Radar attenuation can be corrected using the polarimetric parameter Φdp. This improves rain rate estimates and QPE derived from reflectivity factor Z.
2. Rain rate and QPE can also be derived directly from Kdp instead of Z.
3. Hail identification. In conventional QPE estimates, hail contamination is always a possibility in convective situations.
National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
Rain rate estimation from Kdp
• R is rain rate in mm/hr
• b,c are empirical constants
• R derived from Kdp is more accurate because Kdp not subject to attenuation
( ) bdpdp cKKR =
National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
Attenuation correction using Φdp
• ΔZ is attenuation correction
• r is range along radial
• α is an empirical constant
( ) ( )rrZ dpΦ=Δ α
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
August 2, 2005(day of Air France accident at YYZ)
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Corrected Radar Reflectivity0.4° PPI
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Enhanced View near YYZ
Corrected Radar ReflectivityRadar Reflectivity
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Attenuation Calculation(Radial 200.5°)
Z
φdp
ZcorrCloud Boundary
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Validation with Buffalo NEXRADFrequency Histograms of Reflectivity near YYZ
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
August 19, 2005(flash flood event in North Toronto)
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Radar Reflectivity
Corrected Reflectivity ZCORRReflectivity Z
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
One Hour Precipitation Accumulation (Z)Enhanced View in North Toronto
Rain Accumulation (Z)
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
One Hour Precipitation Accumulation (Zc)Enhanced View in North Toronto
Rain Accumulation (ZCORR)
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Improved QPE Using Zcorr (Location near MSC HQ in Downsview)
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Summer Applications: Hail Detection
National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
iParCA (interactive Particle Classification Algorithm)
• developed by Environment Canada, King City research group
• input: 6 polarimetric radar products (Zh, Zdr, ρHV, Kdp as well as standard deviations of Zh and Zdr)
• output: hydrometeor type at each range gate determined by fuzzy logic routines
National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
an example of a fuzzy logic membership function for moderate rain
National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
iParCA GUI interface
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Comparison of URP and iParCA Hail AlgorithmsURP Hail Algorithm:• Related to storm structure
• Based on vertical integration of cell’s reflectivity profile
• Disadvantages:– Difficult to quantify
– Exact hail location not specified
iParCA Hail Algorithm:• Measurements directly related
to hail properties
• iParCA Fuzzy Logic Thresholds:
• Z : 50 – 75 dBZ
• ZDR : 0 – 1 dB
• ρHV : 0.80 – 0.90
• φDP : abrupt changes
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Grimsby HailstormJuly 23rd 2008 – 0140 Z
Radar Reflectivity Enhanced View
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Grimsby HailstormJuly 23rd 2008 – 0140 Z
ρHV φdp
VIL
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Grimsby HailstormJuly 23rd 2008 – 0140 Z
Location 201/94 202/97.5
Zcorr 46.18 (39.35)
50.42
(49.21)
ZDRcorr 1.05 0.14
ρHV 0.93 0.82
1
1
2
2
Hail Pixel Map: iParCA: URP
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Grimsby HailstormJuly 23rd 2008 – 0230 Z
Hail Pixel Map: iParCA: URP
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Detection Statistics of URP vs iParCA Hail Algorithms
• 74 cells examined for 21 days during the summers of 2005-2008.
• Cases were selected by meteorologist M. Leduc targeting those cells which may contain high impact weather based on reflectivity patterns.
iParCA URP
Hit 63 51
Miss 4 16
False Alarm 5 3
Correct Negative 2 4
Total
Skill Scores
74 74
CSI 88 73
Bias 1.5 -19.4
POD 94 76
FAR 7 6
Cloud Physics & Severe Weather Research Division King City
Summary Statistics of URP vs iParCA Hail Algorithms
• 30 cells on 10 of the study days were examined in depth to assess the physical reasoning for the differences in the algorithm performance.
• In 21/30 cells iParCA was subjectively determined to be better in terms of the quality of the information
• Reasons for iParCA superiority:– Geometry/Timing 4 cases– Attenuation Correction 5 cases– Dual Polarization Discrimination 11 cases– Location 5 cases
• iParCA Hail Product superior for 70% of cells studied
National Lab for Remote Sensing and Nowcasting
Questions?