national park service inventory & monitoring southwest alaska network (swan) climate change...
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NATIONAL PARK SERVICE INVENTORY & MONITORING
SOUTHWEST ALASKA NETWORK (SWAN)
CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS TRAINING 2010-2011
OVERVIEW
Climate Change Planning in
Alaska’s National Parks
Project Background
NPS and SNAP collaborate to help managers, personnel, and key stake-holders develop plausible climate change scenarios for Alaska NPS areas.
Changing climatic conditions impact environmental, social and economic conditions in National Park System areas.
Alaska park managers need to understand changes in order to more effectively manage various ecosystems and human uses.
National Park Service Areas in AlaskaArctic Network
(ARCN)
Southwest Alaska Network
(SWAN) Southeast Alaska Network
(SEAN)
Central Alaska Network (CAKN)
The Aleutians World War II Monument was not included in this assessment of the SWAN network.
SWAN Parks and Sites
Lake Clark
Aniakchak Kenai Fjords
Katmai
Workshop Participants
REPRESENTATIVES FROM:
National Park Service (NPS)
Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP)
United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Alaska Sea Life Center (ASLC)
Bristol Bay Native Association (BBNA)
U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS)
U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) – Forest Service
SNAP: Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning
What is most important to Alaskans and other Arctic partners?o What changes are most likely?o What changes will have the greatest
impact?o How can we adapt to those changes? o What are we best able to predict?
Scenarios are linked to SNAP models, including:o Climate models o Models of how people use land and
resourceso Other models linked to climate and
human behavior
www.snap.uaf.edu
The science of climate change
Unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet is warming
How this warming will affect climate systems around the globe is an enormously complex question
Uncertainty and variability are inevitable
Climate change presents significant risks to natural and cultural resources
Understanding how to address uncertainty is an important part of climate change planning
http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html
Pre-workshop webinars
Feb 2, 2011:
Basic concepts of scenarios planning outlined by GBN
Data and resources available through SNAP and others
Importance of planning for climate changeFeb 9, 2011:
Climate drivers for SWAN parksFeb 16, 2011:
Climate effects table created for SWAN parks
SNAP Methods: Projections based on IPCC models
1. Calculated concurrence of 15 models with data for 1958-2000 for surface air temperature, air pressure at sea level, and precipitation.
2. Used root-mean-square error (RMSE) evaluation to select the 5 models that performed best for Alaska, 60-90°N, and 20-90°N latitude.
3. Used A1B, B1 and A2 emissions scenarios.
4. Downscaled coarse GCM output to 2km using PRISM data.
SNAP data: climate projections
TemperaturePrecipitation (rain and snow)Every month of every year from
1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)
5 models, 3 emissions scenariosAvailable as maps, graphs,
charts, raw dataOnline, downloadable - in
Google Earth, GIS, or printable formats
Projected Temperatures
2000s
2090s
Projected January
Temperatures 2000s & 2090s
SNAP data: climate projections
Temperature
Precipitation (rain and snow)
Every month of every year from 1900 to 2100 (historical + projected)
5 models, 3 emissions scenarios
Available as maps, graphs, charts, raw data
Online, downloadable - in Google Earth, GIS, or printable formats
2000s
2090s
SNAP data: complex linked models
Season length
Shifting plants and animals (biomes and ecosystems)
Water availability
Forest fire
Soil temperature and permafrost (example at left)
Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF
Soil Temperature at 1m depth
1980s
2040s
2080s
NPS Talking Points Papers
Available for Alaska Maritime and Transitional and Alaska Boreal and Arctic
Accessible, up-to-date information about climate change impacts to park resources
Each paper has three major sections:
1. Information on regional changes based on seven impacts
2. No Regrets Actions that can be taken now 3. Discussion of global climate change based on four
topics
Access these and other documents at http://www.snap.uaf.edu/webshared/Nancy%20Fresco/NPS/
Scenarios planners look at the general and specific changes expected in each climate driver, as well as the size and patterns of the expected change.
Climate Drivers, or “Scenario Drivers Based on Climate”
Temperature Precipitation Relative humidity Wind speed Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) Extreme weather events Sea ice Permafrost Snow Freeze-up date Sea level Water availability
Atmosphere Climate Effects Selected and ranked by participants
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
ATMOSPHERE
Greenhouse gasesIncreased carbon storage where forests spread; decreased where drought causes loss of forest or where fire and permafrost release methane and CO2
Air temperature Air temperature increases ~1°F per decade; greatest change in the north and in winter.
Precipitation
Average annual precipitation increases. Relative amounts of snow, ice or rain change.
Many areas experience drying conditions despite increased precipitation.More freezing rain events affect foraging success for wildlife, travel safety, etc.
Storms
Lightning and lightning-ignited fires continue to increase.
Storm and wave impacts increase in northern Alaska where land-fast sea ice forms later.
Air quality More smoke from longer and more intense fire seasons.
Contaminants Increased contaminants and shifting contaminant distribution.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
CRYOSPHE
RE
Snow/ice
Later onset of freeze-up and snowfall + earlier spring snowmelt and break-up.
Arctic snow cover declines with higher air temperatures and earlier spring thaw.
Lack of snow cover leads to deeper freezing of water in the ground or rivers.
Cultural resources are exposed as snow and ice patches melt and recede.
Glaciers
Most glaciers diminish as warming continues, though a few are still advancing.
Glacial outwash affects aquatic productivity and forms deposits in shallow water.
Glacial lakes fail more frequently, creating risk of flash floods and debris flows.
Surging glaciers could block rivers and fjords, resulting in severe flooding.
Sea ice
Less sea ice complicates travel, impacts ecosystems, and adds energy to storm surges.Seasonal reductions in sea ice increase the risk of spills contaminating coastal resources.
Ice roads Reduced winter transportation affects opportunities for travel and subsistence.
Permafrost
Mercury & other pollutants are released into aquatic environments as permafrost thaws.
Cryosphere Climate Effects Selected and ranked by participants
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
HYDROSPHERE
Sea level
Global average sea level is predicted to rise 1-6 feet by the end of the 21st Century.
Increased storm surges and permafrost erosion compound effects of change in sea level.
Some coastal villages rapidly lose ground from storms, erosion and subsidence.
Marine
Increasing sea surface temperature affects fish, seabird, and wildlife populations.
Falling global phytoplankton could reduce ocean productivity and CO2 sequestration.
Freshwater influx from thawing glaciers dilutes marine waters, stressing animals.
Toxic marine algae & shellfish poisoning attributed to changes in water conditions.
Ocean acidification affects food sources of fish, marine mammals & birds in the Arctic.
Estuarine
Coastal erosion and sea level rise increase the frequency of saltwater flooding.
Some shallow water areas convert to terrestrial ecosystems with post-glacial rebound.
Freshwater
Stream flows from melting glaciers increase and then decrease over time.
Ponds shrink as ground ice thaws or thermokarst drainage occurs in permafrost areas.
Groundwater Groundwater supplies dependent on seasonal glacial recharge become less predictable.
Hydrosphere Climate Effects Selected and ranked by participants
Climate Effects, as selected and ranked by participants
LITHOSPHERE
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
LITHOSPHE
RE
Ground level Ground level rises in recently de-glaciated areas because of isostatic rebound.
Ground stability
More roads and infrastructure fail or require repairs due to permafrost thaw.
Landslides and mud flows increase on steep slopes. Rapid glacial retreat and permafrost thaw leave steep and unstable slopes in valleys and fjords.
Earthquake activity increases in recently deglaciated areas due to isostatic rebound.
Large and small tsunamis could result from collapse of unstable slopes in fjords.
Coastal erosion claims both natural and cultural resources and constructed assets.
Burials and other remains are exposed as cultural sites thaw and erode.
Soil Soil moisture declines due to rising soil temperature, thawing permafrost, and drainage.
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
BIOSPHERE
Vegetation
Average number of frost-free days for the Arctic could increase between 20 and 40 days by 2100.
Increased agricultural production in Alaska because of longer growing season.
Potential large-scale shift of tundra to shrubs, to conifers, to deciduous forests or grass.
Atypical outbreaks of pests and diseases affect native species and increase fire hazards.
Invasive exotic plant species and native species from other areas expand their ranges.
Forests
Black spruce may expand with warming – or contract as permafrost soils thaw and fires increase.
Mature forests and “old growth” decline because of drought, insects, disease, and fire.
Mature yellow cedars decline across southeast Alaska, possibly due to lack of insulating snow.
Fire
Models show a warmer climate leads to larger, more frequent and intense fires.
Wildland fire hazards increase, affecting communities and isolated property owners.
Fire-related landcover and soil changes result in vegetation shifts, permafrost thaw, etc.
Biosphere Climate Effects – 1 of 4Selected and ranked by participants
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
BIOSPHERE
Wildlife
Changes to terrestrial and aquatic species occur as ranges shift, contract, expand.
Animals and plants will expand into landscapes vacated by glacial ice.
Migratory routes and destinations will change (e.g., wetlands, open tundra, snow patches).
Birds
Arctic and alpine birds’ breeding habitats reduced as trees and shrubs encroach on tundra.
Waterfowl shifts occur as coastal ponds become more salty.
Productivity of nesting shorebirds may increase if schedules change to coincide w/ insects.
Predation on ground nesting birds could increase if prey (lemming) abundance declines.
Coastal seabirds (e.g. Ivory Gull and Aleutian Tern) are vulnerable to climate change.
Population cycles of birds and their prey could be out of sync due to higher temperatures.
Marine Mammals
Arctic marine mammals (e.g. seals, walrus, whales) are affected by sea ice decline.
Less sound absorption (ocean acidification) affects marine mammals that rely on echolocation.
Biosphere Climate Effects – 2 of 4Selected and ranked by participants
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
BIOSPHERE
Caribou/ Reindeer
Caribou and reindeer health are affected by changes in weather, forage, and insects and pests.
Earlier green-up could improve caribou calf survival because of more available forage.
Caribou may suffer heavy losses if rain events prevent successful feeding during cold weather.
MooseShifts in forests could mean less habitat for caribou, but more habitat for moose.
Climate change could hinder moose calf birth success and moose calf survival.
Small Mammals
Fire may create new burrowing habitat and forage growth to help vole populations.
Less snow cover = increased predation & cold stress for subnivian species.
Fisheries
Commercial fisheries affected by changes to ocean communities in the Bering Sea.
Some marine plant and animal populations may decline with ocean acidification.
New stream habitats become available for fish and wildlife as glaciers decline.
Some salmon waters may become unsuitable for migration, spawning and incubation.
Fish habitats in permafrost areas are degraded by slumps and sediment input into rivers.
Inverte-brates
Ice worm populations decline locally as glacier habitats melt.Exotic pests expand from warmer areas, endemic pests expand as host species are stressed.
Biosphere Climate Effects – 3 of 4Selected and ranked by participants
[See “edited annotated effects SW parks”]
BIOSPHERE
Subsistence
Altered animal migration patterns make subsistence hunting more challenging.
Sea ice changes make hunting for marine mammals less predictable & more dangerous.
Managing new species and intensified management of native species may be needed.
Tourism Longer summer seasons and more cruise ships in the Bering Strait could increase tourism.
Hazards Safety hazards related to climate change, e.g. thin ice, flooding, changing fire regimes, etc.
TEK Uses of traditional ecological knowledge become less predictive and less reliable.
Development
More natural resource development in Alaska with increasing global demand.
More developmental pressures, e.g. opening of Northwest Passage, community resettlement, etc.
Biosphere Climate Effects – 4 of 4Selected and ranked by participants
Aug 2010 Training Workshop: Scenarios Planning Process
Led by Global Business Network (GBN)
Participants learned how to develop scenarios based on a nested framework of critical uncertainties
Participants fleshed out beginnings of climate change scenarios for two pilot park networks
Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010 Monitor Company Group
+10%-10%
Forecast Planning One Future
Uncertainties
What we know today
Scenario PlanningMultiple Futures
What we know today
Forecasts vs. Scenarios
Global Business Network (GBN) ©2010 Monitor Company Group
Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process
What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them?
What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address?
What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?
How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories?
As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions?
This diagram describes the 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process
Global Business Network (GBN) ©2010 Monitor Company Group
Scenario Creation Process
Step One: Orient
Strategic issue or decision:
How will climate change effects impact the landscapes within NPS management units over the next 50 to 100 years?
How can NPS managers best preserve the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change?
To address this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:
Kenai Fjords National Park
Photo credit: Kenai Fjords | http://www.ent.iastate.edu/sip/2005/companiontours
What critical forces will affect the future of our issue?
Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty
Copyright © 2010 Monitor Company Group, L.P. — ConfidentialERT-HLY 2010 1
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESBIOREGION: ______________
Over the next 50 – 100 years, what will happen to . . . ?
CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIESBIOREGION: ________________
Over the next 50─100 years, what will happen to…?
Global Business Network (GBN) ©2010 Monitor Company Group
Scenario Creation Process
Step Two: Explore
Climate Scenarios
Combining two selected drivers creates four possible futures
BIOREGION: ______________
Global Business Network (GBN) ©2010 Monitor Company Group
Driver 1
Driv
er 2
“Nested Scenarios”
Lack of senior commitment
Varied approach & alignment
Short-term concerns
Senior commitmentInternational
alignmentLong-term
perspectives
Widespread indifference
Competing concerns
Degre
e o
f S
oci
eta
l C
once
rn
Big problems, Big solutions…
Riots and Revolution…
Is Anyone Out There?... Wheel-Spinning…
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
9 10
11 12
13 14
15 16
Broad UnderstandingHeightened Urgency
Nesting each story in a social framework creates 16 possibilities
Nature of Leadership
Global Business Network (GBN) ©2010 Monitor Company Group
Step 3: Synthesize
Describe This World in 2030
Major Impacts on the Bioregion
Issues Facing Management
Nested Scenario Details
The 16 possible futures created in the preceding steps must be narrowed down to 3-4 scenarios that are relevant, divergent, challenging, and pertinent. Each has its own narrative (story).
BioregionClimate
Socio-Political
BIOREGION: ________________
Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or okay) in any of the four scenarios
- OR -
Bet the Farm: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality
- OR -
Hedge Your Bets: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size
- OR -
Core/Satellite: Place one major bet, with small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, real options
Global Business Network (GBN) ©2010 Monitor Company Group
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Core
Satellite
Bet theFarm
RobustSatellite
Scenario Creation Process
Step Four: Act
Categorizing Options to Help Set Strategy
SWAN Workshop Results
Example: Riverine
Step 1: Orient
Nuka River, Kenai Fjords National Park | Photo credit: Sandra Healy
Strategic issue or decision:
To address this challenge, we need to explore a broader question:
Step 2: Explore
Climate drivers selected by workshop participants for Riverine:
• Thaw Days (more/less)
• Precipitation (low/high variation)
Precipitation
Tha
w
D
ays
Climate Scenarios (Riverine)
Precipitation
T
haw
Day
s
More with warming PDO phase
Less with cold PDO phase
High Variation Less Variation
“Juneau-Helly/Hansen”
2
“Freeze Dried”
3
“Smokey”
1
“Tiny Ice Age”
4
Each quadrant yields a set of future conditions which are:
• plausible
• challenging
• relevant
• divergent
1) “Smokey”2) “Juneau/Helly Hansen”
Drought stressed vegetation Increased disease/pests Maximum shrub expansion Long-term reduction stream
flow Initially higher stream flows
from glacial melt Reduction/loss of glaciers Increased fire on landscape 40% reduction in salmon fry Lowering of groundwater
tables Decrease in stream flow Decrease in subsistence
Increase in rain-on-snow events
Thicker vegetation Increased erosion Increased evaporation (soil
drying) More berries Increase in park
infrastructure impacts Decrease in backcountry
visitation (more rain, fewer flying days)
Increased difficulty in controlling contamination (runoff)
Increase in avalanches
Step 3: Climate scenarios 1&2 (Riverine)
3) “Freeze Dried” 4) “Tiny Ice Age”
Permafrost persists Decrease in productivity
(plant, berries)…impact on wildlife
Overland access continues Competition of water
resources (mining, communities)
Facilities/infrastructure stable Slow retreat of tundra ponds Extend range of Dahl Sheep Lichens stable, supporting
caribou High wind potential Brown bear decrease
Increase damage risk in cultural resources/infrastructure
Increase bear activity for Brooks Camp (KATM)
Decrease in ungulates Decrease in bark beetle and fire KATM Brooks Camp barge has
adequate Naknek Lake water depth to access
Stable glaciers High summer stream flows Increase in winter access.
Step 3: Climate scenarios 3&4 (Riverine)
Step 4: Choosing Response Strategies
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Core
RobustSatellite
Satellite
Bet theFarm
Robust responses are common no-regrets actions, but they are not the only possibility.
In some cases, it may make sense to hedge bets to avoid an occurrence that appears in only one or two scenarios, or to set up core and satellite responses to deal with variability among scenarios.Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010
Monitor Company Group
Step 4: Common No Regrets Actions
Coordinate communication with other agencies
Tune planning process to account for multiple possibilities
Create seamless data sets Get missing players to the climate change
scenario table at subsequent meetings Provide science outreach and education to
multiple audiences
Next Steps
• Teleconferences and webinars to confirm results and fill in gaps
• Discussion of how to turn plans into concrete actions
• Development of outreach tools and information, including final report
• Dissemination of scenarios and explanations of the process and results to a broad audience
• Feedback from a wider audience
• Linkages with planning for other park networks
The scenario planning process doesn’t end with “SYNTHESIZE”
Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010 Monitor Company Group