national weather service climate services

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA

National Weather Service National Weather Service Climate ServicesClimate Services

Marina Livezey (Timofeyeva)

OFCM 2nd Mini-Workshopon

Hydrometeorological Products, Servicesand Supporting Research

December 10, 2008


Outline

• Needs and requirements • Programs and initiatives • Product suite and services (current and any

experimental products/services) • Potential benefits • Challenges and gaps in products and services • Research opportunities underway and planned to meet

identified gaps • Process for transitioning research into operational

applications • Related training, education and outreach activities


Needs and Requirements

• “Past weather” data• Climate guidance to

national and local decision makers

• Information of climate variability and change physical mechanisms, predictability, predictions, and impacts

• Timely, continuous and reliable climate data

• Timely, continuous and reliable national and local climate forecasts

• Outreach activities, materials and trained staff


NOAA and NWS Climate Services

NOAA Climate Program Office

Interagency ClimateOffice Climate Board

NCEP

NMFS

EMC

NOSOARNESDISNWS

Focal Points

CPC CSD WFOs/RFCs/WSOs

RegionalManager

RCCs ARSCOs

OCWWS Regions

RISAs IRI

Matrix L

ink

CSC, OCM,

CWISE

FY 2001

FY 2003

NCDCNCO,ESRL

GFDL



• NWS: provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States … for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure....

• CSD: Ensure NWS is equipped to develop and deliver an end-to-end suite of climate variability and change products through strategic planning, user engagement, data stewardship, policy development, integration of research and assessments, partnerships, outreach, and training.

• CPC: Deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.


Programs and Initiatives

• National Climate Programs and Initiativeso Monitoring climate variabilityo Climate assessments and diagnostic discussionso Climate forecastso Climate Test Bed

• Regional and Local Climate Programs and Initiativeso Bridging climate user needs and product

requirementso Climate observing system and data recordso Local climate data and forecast productso Local climate outreacho Training climate services staff


Product Suite and Services:National

• Extended Range Outlooks: (6-10 and 8-14)

• Long Range Outlooks (Monthly and 3-Months)

• Assessments: Hazards, Drought, MJO, Global Ocean

• Special Outlooks: Hurricane, Winter, African Rainfall

• Bulletins: Climate Variability, Stratospheric Ozone, Weekly Weather and Crop


Product Suite and Services:National Examples

Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts

• 3-Month Outlooks released monthly with 0.5 month lead for 13 3-month periods (categories: Above, Below, Near Normal and Equal Chances)

• 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlooks released daily with 6/8 day leads (categories: Above, Below and Normal)


Product Suite and Services:Local

Public interactive access to ““past weather

• NOAA Online Weather Data (NOWdata): 9 products, 3900 sites, 9 variables, 3 time periods

• Other online data products:o Last 3 month daily datao Last 5 year monthly/dailyo This year record eventso Last year monthly site, regional

and state summaries



Local 3 Month Temperature Outlooks:

• Local information• Multiple user centric

formats• Dynamic text

interpretation• Benefits and limitations• Long term forecast

evaluation • Trained staff support



NWS local climate services support:• Standardized local offices web site:

www.weather.gov/climate • Online data stewardship tools: xmACIS, Datzilla,

ThredEx, etc.• Local Climate Forecast Products (L3MTO)

online package and display• Outreach materials: factsheets, brochures,

standard presentations, etc.• Defining a process of transition from climate

user need to NWS climate product requirements


• NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation

• NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers:o Fact sheets on Climate Changeo Comprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Changeo IPCC report facts

• NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate change products include:o Range of climate variability for climatology period and full recordso Current rate of trends in climate variableso Impacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables

• Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change:o National Climatic Data Centero Earth System Research Laboratoryo National Oceanographic Data Centero Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab

Product Suite and Services:Climate Change Issues


Potential Benefits

• Seamless suite of climate products and services

• National and local climate information

• 24h 7days/week operational services

• Growing understanding of climate users and product usability and applications


Challenges and Gaps in Products and Services

• Barriers on the way for climate outlook use: products misinterpretation, lack of verification information, confusing and inconsistent language (Hartmann, 2002)

• Skill is variable for different seasons, areas and forecast periods

• Growing need for Climate Change information• Impacts and applicability of climate products


Research Opportunities

CSD activities bridging NWS user needs and product requirements

• Claes Fornell International (CFI) Group Surveys (2004, 2009)

• Annual Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop (CPASW): March 24-27, 2009, Norman OK

• Feedback option for local climate forecast products • Annual NWS local offices reporting of local climate users

needs• Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISAs)

findings and reports• American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)

annual meetings


Development Opportunities

• Regional Climate Services o Climate extensions initiativeso Regional user climate meetings and

workshops

• Local Climate Services o Reactive outreach: responding to specific

user requestso Proactive outreach services: local meetings,

media statements, workshops on special products, etc.


Process for Transitioning Research into Operations


Process for Transitioning Research into Operations

Prototype is developed internally by science and outreach experts

Informal WFO internal review, questionnaire of selected partners & customers

Experimental product is developed and enhanced by“Feedback” form

Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions

Operational product is developed and enhanced by“Feedback” form

Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions

Adjustment

Adjustment

Adjustment

Multi-tiered Approach in Incorporating Users Feedback


Training, Education and Outreach

• Climate Services Training includes 2 courses and ~30 online distance learning modules

• Local public education materials (factsheets, standard presentations, brochures) are available at any local offices

national weather service climate services

Documents