October - What Occurred

National Weather Service Grand Forks

Weather & Climate Review

October-November 2019

Temperature

Table 1 October Temperature and Precipitation Statistics

Figure 1

October Daily

Departure from

Normal

Temperatures at

Baudette, MN

Blue Bars = Colder than Normal Days & Red Bars = Warmer than Normal Days

Precipitation

Figure 2 CPC Temp Outlook Figure 4 CPC Pcpn Outlook Figure 3 Observed Temp Figure 5 Observed Pcpn

The October temperature (Figure 2) and precipitation (Figure 4) outlooks issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) in late Sep-

tember are shown above. Compare these with the observed October departures from normal temperatures (Figure 3) and precipi-

tation (Figure 5). There was a higher probability for below normal temperatures at Devils Lake, which turned out correct.

Table 1 shows the October average temperature (AveT), departure from normal temperature (TDept), precipitation (Pcpn), depar-

ture from normal precipitation (PDept), and snowfall (Snow) for our 5 main climate sites (Devils Lake (DVL), NWS Grand Forks (NWS

GF), Fargo (FAR), Baudette (BDE), and Park Rapids (PKD)). Every site ended with below normal temperatures, and all but Devils Lake

had above normal precipitation. Snowfall amounts at the NWS in Grand Forks and Fargo were similar to last October. Figure 1 plots

the daily departure from normal temperatures in October 2019 at Baudette, MN. Although more days were cooler than normal

(blue bars), there were also a few warm days as well (red bars).

The precipitation total of 3.78 inches at Fargo was the 10th wettest October on record. The snowfall total of 4.5 inch-

es at Fargo tied for the 5th most October snow. The daily snowfall amount of 4.1 inches at Fargo on the 11th set a

new daily record.

Figure 6 Monthly Departures from

Normal Temps at Fargo, ND

Figure 7 Monthly Departures from

Normal Pcpn at Fargo, ND

As an example, Figure 6 shows that in the past 6 months, 3 months

have been above normal and 3 months have been below normal (for

temperatures) at Fargo. Figure 7 shows that precipitation amounts at

Fargo during July, August, September, and October were all above

normal. Fargo missed several heavy rain events that hit areas further

north, so other areas were even wetter than Fargo.

Overall, October 2019 was cool and wet. Looking at just the Fargo climate site (FAR), Figures 6 and 7 show how Octo-

ber 2019 fits into the previous 5 months. Figure 6 plots the monthly departures from normal temperatures at Fargo.

The blue bars represent months that were colder than normal, while the red bars represent months that were warm-

er than normal. Figure 7 plots the monthly departures from normal precipitation at Fargo. The green bars represent months that

were wetter than normal, while the brown bars represent months that were drier than normal.

Records

6 Month

Trend

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature (Figure 15) and

precipitation (Figure 16) outlooks for November are shown to the left. For

eastern North Dakota and the northwest quarter of Minnesota, the CPC is

forecasting higher probabilities for below normal temperatures and equal

chances for above, normal, or below normal precipitation.

Figure 15 Temperature Figure 16 Precipitation

Figure 11 October 10-12, 2019 Snowfall

As far as high impact weather goes, no severe convective warnings were issued in October 2019, or the year be-

fore, in October 2018. However, in October 2019, winter weather once again made an early impact on the area. A

Winter Storm Warning was issued for portions of the area from October 10th-12th (Figure 8), then portions of it

transitioned to a Blizzard Warning from October 11th-12th (Figure 9). Coincidentally, in 2018, an early season

Winter Storm Warning was issued on the same initial date, October 10th (Figure 10).

The winner of our October photo contest was Brad Lykins, who submitted a photograph of a dog enjoying the October 10-12 snow

(Page 1, top right). This storm had huge impacts on the region. Figure 12 shows a tree destroyed by the weight of the heavy, wet

snow, Figure 13 shows the high waters of the Middle River, and Figure 14 shows a flooded sugar beet field.

November - Looking Ahead

Figure 10 October 10, 2018

Warnings

Figure 12 Downed Tree in Grand Forks Figure 13 Middle River at the Old Mill State Park MN Figure 14 Waterlogged Sugar Beet Field

Photographs

Storm of the Month

The Winter Storm that occurred between the

10th and 12th was selected as the storm of the

month. From Figures 8 and 9, this storm mainly

affected areas along and west of the Red River

Valley. Figure 11 shows the rough snowfall

map from the event. Over 2 feet of snow fell

across portions of central and eastern North

Dakota.

Winter Storm

Warning

Winter Storm

Warning

Blizzard

Warning

Figure 8 October 10-12, 2019 Figure 9 October 11-12, 2019

Miscellaneous

So what are normal temperatures in November? Figure 15 shows November normals for selected cities across eastern North Dako-

ta and northwest Minnesota. As an example, at Langdon on November 1st, the normal high is 41 and the normal low is 22. By No-

vember 30th at Langdon, the normal high falls to 23 and the normal low is 7. The normal rainfall at Langdon in November is 0.72

inches.

Figure 15 Normals for Selected Cities Figure 16 November 2018 Data

As a comparison to normal values, Figure 16 shows various ob-

served data from last year (2018). As an example, in Fargo (FAR),

0.61 inches of precipitation (green box) and 5.3 inches of snow (blue

box) fell. The highest temperature was 50 degrees (red number),

while the lowest temperature was –3 degrees (blue number).

In November 2018, no winter weather warnings were issued.

This has been a wet fall. Figure 17 shows the observed rainfall across the Northern Plains during October 2019. The red areas over

eastern North Dakota into Minnesota represent rainfall amounts greater than 5 inches. Normal amounts of rainfall in October

range from 1.49 inches at Langdon, 2.12 inches at Red Lake Falls, and 2.61 inches at Breckenridge. Figure 18 shows the October

precipitation totals as the percent of normal. The purple areas north of a Fargo to Baudette line are 200-400 percent of normal.

Figure 19 shows the observed rainfall during the past 60 days, which covers most of September and October. The green and yellow

areas over southeast North Dakota and the adjacent areas of west central Minnesota have seen the least rainfall (although still a

lot), with amounts ranging from 6 to 10 inches. Normal amounts of rainfall in September and October range from 3.30 inches at

Langdon, 4.95 inches at Red Lake Falls, and 5.46 inches at Breckenridge. Finally, Figure 20 shows the September-October precipita-

tion totals as the percent of normal. Again, most of northeast North Dakota into the corner of Northwest Minnesota have values

ranging from 300 to 600 percent of normal.

Figure 19 September-October Precipitation Totals

Figure 17 October Precipitation Totals Figure 18 October Precipitation Percent of Normal

Figure 20 September-October Precipitation Percent of Normal

These excessive precipitation amounts led to high October river levels, especially over the northern Red River Valley. The Red River

at Oslo rose into Major Flood Stage (Figure 21), while the Two Rivers River at Hallock rose into Moderate Flood Stage (Figure 22).

Figure 21 Oslo, MN Hydrograph Figure 22 Hallock, MN Hydrograph

Figure 23 Visible Satellite Image from October 17th Figure 24 Western Pembina County Webcam October 17th

By the time the clouds finally scoured out on October 17th, most of the snow from the October 10-12 storm had already melted.

However, some snow was still evident on visible satellite imagery over portions of northeast North Dakota. The red areas in Figure

23 show snow on the ground, the light blue areas represent clouds, and the black areas in eastern Walsh County ND and western

Marshall County MN represent water. Another area that shows a lot of river and runoff water is over northern Roseau County MN.

A station at the Glacial Ridge National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) in Polk County MN has sensors that measure the soil moisture at 2, 4,

8, 20, and 40 inches. Figure 25 plots the 2, 4, and 8 inch soil moisture levels (in %) from June 1st to October 31st (scale on the left)

and the daily precipitation totals in green along the bottom, with the scale on the right. The 20 and 40 inch soil moisture levels

were not plotted to limit crowding on the graphic. For reference, soil moisture values around 40 percent are considered saturated.

By mid-October, the 2, 4, and 8

inch values are saturated. The

steady rise in moisture levels is

clear from September into Oc-

tober. There was only one 1

inch plus rainfall during the

June to August period (July 9th),

but there were three 1 inch plus

rainfalls from September to

October (September 10th and

22nd, and October 11th).

Figure 25 Soil Moisture and Precipitation Amounts from June to October 2019 at Glacial Ridge NWR MN

The winter storm event from October 10-12 was the Storm of the Month, with blizzard conditions during the second half of the

event. There was a heavy snow event last year on October 10th, which brought over a foot of snow to the Valley City to North-

wood area, but this event did not have strong winds. So how common are blizzards in October? A search through Storm Data (the

official historical record for the NWS), shows there have been 4 October blizzards since 2001. The blizzards occurred on October

24-25, 2001 (Figure 26), October 25, 2001 (Figure 27), October 5-6, 2005 (Figure 28), and October 26-27, 2010 (Figure 29).

Blizzard

Warning

Figure 26 October 24-25, 2001 Figure 27 October 25, 2001 Figure 28 October 5-6, 2005 Figure 29 October 26-27, 2010

Blizzard

Warning

Blizzard

Warning Blizzard

Warning

Colorado Lows generally bring moisture laden fall and spring winter storms. These lows can drop a lot of snow. However, as air and

ground temperatures can still be warm, the snow may be wet and hard to blow. So October blizzards can be a little harder to come

by, but they are not impossible to get. If these conditions are just right, blizzards can occur. Figure 30 shows the surface map associ-

ated with the blizzard warning in Figure 26. This was a “Hybrid” Low, not a Colorado Low, and the combination of 4 to 12 inches of

snow and wind gusts up to 40 mph resulted in the blizzard. Many schools closed, there were scattered power outages, and Inter-

state 94 was blocked near Tower City for nearly 2 hours by the snow and stalled vehicles. Figure 31 shows the surface map associat-

ed with the blizzard warning in Figure 27. This was a day later than Figure 30, and you can see how much the low intensified as it

Figure 30 October 24, 2001 7 AM Figure 31 October 25, 2001 7 AM

Figure 32 October 5, 2005 7 AM Figure 33 October 26, 2010 7 AM

reached Lake Superior. This resulted

in strong northwest winds, which

blew the fresh snow down the east-

ern side of the Red River Valley. Fig-

ures 32 and 33 are associated with

Figures 28 and 29, and were fairly

similar events, featuring Colorado

Lows. The October 2005 blizzard

was preceded by a winter storm that

dropped 4 to 14 inches of heavy,

wet snow. As temperatures

dropped, power outages also oc-

curred from up to 60 mph winds.

Highway 2 was closed west of Devils

Lake and 26 power poles were

knocked down near Perth. The Octo-

ber 2010 storm was also an efficient

rain producer, with 1 to 2 inches of

rain common across the area before

temperatures dropped. Once the

rain changed to snow, this became

more a ground blizzard. However, 6

inches of snow did fall between Es-

mond and New Rockford. Roads

west of Devils Lake became quite

slick.

The CPC Winter Outlook

EC

A

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature (Figure 15) and pre-

cipitation (Figure 16) outlooks for Winter (December-January-February)

are shown to the left. For eastern North Dakota and the northwest

quarter of Minnesota, the CPC is forecasting equal chances for above,

normal, or below normal temperatures and higher probabilities for

above normal precipitation.

Figure 34 Temperature Figure 35 Precipitation

Other Photographs of the October 10-12, 2019 Storm

Figure 36 Near Arvilla, ND Figure 37 Near Arvilla, ND Figure 38 Near Arvilla, ND

Figure 39 Near Arvilla, ND Figure 40 Turtle River State Park, ND Figure 41 Near Arvilla, ND

Figure 42 Near Arvilla, ND Figure 43 Near Arvilla, ND Figure 44 Near Arvilla, ND