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5/22/2017 weather.gov/houston

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

2017 Hurricane Season Outlook

What is a Hurricane, a Tropical Cyclone? • Storm that forms over the warm waters of the tropical oceans

characterized by a closed counter-clockwise circulation (in the Northern Hemisphere) and typically with thunderstorms around the center.

• TC classifications: Hurricane >73 mph, Tropical Storm 39-73 mph, Tropical Depression <39 mph

Hurricane Rita 2005 Tropical Storm Bill 2015

Easterly waves indicated by dashed lines

Some develop into hurricanes!

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

2017 Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic Hurricane Season: June 1 – November 30th

Peak of season August and September

Hurricane Ike View from Radar

Spiral Bands

Eye Wall

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Potential Hazards

Storm Surge Flooding Tornadoes

Flooding Rains Damaging Winds

Every storm will have a different set of hazards

TS Allison (2001)

Ike (2008), Carla (1961)

Alicia (1983) Andrew (1992) Camille (1969) Carla (1961)

Buelah (1967)

Port Lavaca Area

Other Hazards: Snakes (after Carla)

Rappaport, Edward N., 2014: Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: New Data and Interpretation

Cause of death in the United States directly attributable to Atlantic tropical cyclones, 1963–2012.

Percentage of 1963–2012 Atlantic tropical cyclones (right scale) and deadly U.S. tropical cyclones (left scale) in which noted types of fatalities occurred in the United States.

Which Hazard is the Most Deadly?

Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph)

Storm Examples Wind Impacts

Tropical Depression

Less than 39 mph Relatively minor

Tropical Storm

Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant

1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce

Claudette 2003 some damage Humberto 2007

2 96 - 110 Georges 1998 Ike 2008

Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage

3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005 Rita 2005

4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage Carla 1961

5 > 156 Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damage Camille 1969

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Category 2 or Larger Storms Since 1850 to Make Landfall in Shaded Area; 14 in all, 8 of 14 developed in Gulf of Mexico

Carla 1961

1932

Alicia 1983

1900

1915 Ike 2008

1943

1909

Some of the Significant Historical Storms

1941

1949

1879

1866

1945

1942

2010: 4,093,000 2016 est: 4,600,000

2016 Outlook Near or Above Normal Activity for Atlantic (and Gulf)

What Occurred: 15 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes; Florida, SE Coast Heavily Impacted, Texas Not

So What’s the Hurricane Season Forecast This Year?

It really doesn’t matter since it only takes 1!

http://hurricanes.gov/prepare/

Bolivar Peninsula After Ike 2008

Least active season 1983 (4 named stor

It Only Takes One

Near Average Year?

Worst Case Category 1

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/StorytellingTextLegend/index.html?appid=b1a20ab5eec149058bafc059635a82ee

Worst Case Category 2

Worst Case Category 3

Worst Case Category 4

Worst Case Category 5

Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula Devastation

Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/

Early rise trapped many on Bolivar, Galveston Island Don’t wait too long to evacuate surge zones, especially barrier islands; Need to account for the forerunner; water covering roads 24 hours ahead of landfall

Landfall Water on Roads

AP Photo/David J. Phillip

Hurricane Ike: SE TX Coast Surge/Coastal Flooding

Storm Surge from Ike, Bolivar

AP/Dallas Morning News, Guy Reynolds

Southeast Texas Hurricane Guides • Checklists

• Evacuation zone maps

• Tracking charts

• What to do before,

during and after a storm

• Online version • https://go.usa.gov/x5USR