nationwide survey of 3,000 likely voters*: the … · nationwide survey of 3,000 likely voters,...

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS*: The Standard Poll

MARCH 26-APRIL 1, 2016

*Likely Voters = Registered Voters with Biometrics and Sure to Vote in the May 2016 Elections

NATIONWIDE SURVEY OF 3,000 LIKELY VOTERS, MARCH 26-APRIL1, 2016

SAMPLE SIZES, ERROR MARGINS AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION

2

AREA SAMPLE SIZE

ERROR MARGINS

NO. OF PROVINCES

NO. OF HIGHLY

URBANIZED CITIES

NO. OF MUNICI

PALITIES/ CITIES

NO. OF BARANGAYS

PHILIPPINES 3000 ±1.8% 79 40 270 600NCR 300 ±6% 17 17 60NORTH/CENTRAL LUZON 700 ±4% 21 5 61 140

CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS (CAR) 100 ±10% 6 1 10 20ILOCOS (REGION1) 200 ±7% 4 1 20 40

CAGAYAN VALLEY (REGION2) 100 ±10% 4 1 10 20

CENTRAL LUZON (REGION3) 300 ±6% 7 2 21 60

SOUTH LUZON/BICOL 700 ±4% 16 3 52 140CALABARZON (Region 4a) 400 ±5% 5 1 21 80MIMAROPA (Region 4b) 100 ±10% 5 1 11 20

BICOL (Region 5) 200 ±7% 6 1 20 40

VISAYAS 600 ±4% 16 7 70 120WESTERN VISAYAS (Region 6) 150 ±8% 5 1 15 30

NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR) 100 ±10% 2 1 14 20CENTRAL VISAYAS (Region 7) 200 ±7% 3 3 24 40

EASTERN VISAYAS (Region 8) 150 ±8% 6 2 17 30

MINDANAO 700 ±4% 26 8 70 140ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA (Region 9) 100 ±10% 3 2 10 20NORTHERN MINDANAO (Region 10) 150 ±8% 5 2 15 30

DAVAO REGION (Region 11) 150 ±8% 5 1 10 30

SOCCSKSARGEN (Region 12) 100 ±10% 4 2 15 20CARAGA (Region 13) 100 ±10% 4 1 10 20

AUTONOMOUS REGION OF MUSLIM MINDANAO (ARMM) 100 ±10% 5 0 10 20


VOTER PREFERENCE

FOR PRESIDENT

3


Voter Preference for President: Philippines

4

29%$26%$ 27%$

20%$

24%$

30%$

22%$ 23%$

18%$

22%$ 22%$ 21%$

2%$ 2%$ 2%$

4%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#

Poe Duterte Binay Roxas Santiago Undecided


Voter Preference for President: Ranking

5

TOTAL PHILIPPINES RANK PH Vote Share

Lower Limit

Upper Limit

Margin of Error

3. DUTERTE, Rody (PDPLBN) 1-2 30% 28% 32% 1.64%

4. POE, Grace (IND) 1-2 27% 25% 29% 1.59%

5. ROXAS, Mar Daang Matuwid (LP) 3 21% 20% 23% 1.46%

1. BINAY, Jojo (UNA) 4 18% 17% 19% 1.37%

2. DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO, Miriam (PRP) 5 2% 2% 3% 0.50%

Population (N) = 54,363,844; 95% Confidence level (z-1.96); Sample size (n) =3000


Voter Preference for President: NCR

6

35%$

28%$ 30%$

22%$ 23%$

30%$

22%$

28%$

23%$

10%$12%$ 11%$

5%$ 4%$2%$

6%$ 4%$ 4%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: North & Central Luzon

7

37%$34%$ 34%$

7%$

11%$

18%$

31%$33%$

28%$

17%$ 16%$ 16%$

3%$ 3%$3%$4%$ 4%$

1%$0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: North & Central Luzon Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016 1%

6%

4%

4%

2%

3%

1%

4%

3%

2%

1%

1%

4%

4%

8%

7%

3%

3%

20%

26%

50%

62%

29%

30%

28%

32%

28%

33%

18%

20%

11%

6%

15%

16%

16%

11%

16%

16%

36%

34%

25%

20%

38%

40%

31%

39%

34%

34%

23%

13%

13%

7%

11%

11%

15%

8%

18%

11%

Duterte Poe RoxasBinay Santiago Undecided

8

NORTH & CENTRAL LUZON

CORDILLERA ADMIN REGION (CAR)

ILOCOS (Region1)

CAGAYAN VALLEY (Region2)

CENTRAL LUZON (Region3)


Voter Preference for President: South Luzon & Bicol

9

38%$

32%$

39%$

12%$ 14%$

19%$

23%$

27%$

18%$

21%$ 21%$ 21%$

1%$ 2%$ 1%$

5%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: South Luzon & Bicol Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016 2%

8%

1%

3%

3%

2%

4%

2%

3%

1%

1%

3%

1%

2%

15%

18%

12%

18%

21%

33%

18%

27%

35%

34%

32%

21%

12%

15%

21%

21%

37%

31%

33%

31%

41%

33%

39%

32%

9%

7%

20%

28%

22%

13%

19%

14%


10

SOUTH LUZON & BICOL

CALABARZON (Region 4a)

MIMAROPA (Region 4b)

BICOL (Region 5)


Voter Preference for President: Visayas

11

23%$

18%$ 18%$17%$

23%$

31%$

18%$ 17%$

13%$

35%$36%$

35%$

2%$ 2%$ 2%$

5%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Visayas Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

2%

2%

5%

6%

8%

1%

2%

4%

4%

1%

1%

3%

2%

4%

3%

2%

2%

33%

27%

4%

14%

7%

13%

9%

15%

13%

17%

14%

25%

27%

28%

42%

45%

60%

51%

35%

36%

18%

23%

10%

12%

31%

16%

15%

24%

18%

18%

35%

19%

55%

40%

17%

18%

4%

7%

31%

23%


12

VISAYAS

WESTERN VISAYAS (Region 6)

NEGROS ISLAND REGION (NIR)

CENTRAL VISAYAS (Region 7)

EASTERN VISAYAS (Region 8)


Voter Preference for President: Mindanao

13

17%$ 17%$

13%$

44%$

49%$

53%$

16%$

11%$ 11%$

20%$ 20%$ 20%$

1%$ 1%$ 1%$0%$2%$ 3%$

0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Mindanao Regions

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016

Feb2016

Mar2016 1%

4%

2%

10%

1%

1%

2%

3%

2%

1%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

27%

16%

6%

8%

9%

17%

3%

2%

11%

9%

16%

20%

11%

11%

23%

15%

30%

19%

13%

21%

5%

11%

23%

29%

31%

23%

20%

20%

14%

20%

5%

27%

4%

13%

5%

6%

20%

16%

31%

25%

13%

17%

35%

45%

57%

43%

63%

47%

85%

79%

43%

43%

21%

30%

53%

49%


14

MINDANAO

ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA (Region 9)

NORTHERN MINDANAO (Region 10)

DAVAO REGION (Region 11)

SOCCSKSARGEN (Region 12)

CARAGA (Region 13)

ARMM


Voter Preference for President: Urban

15

35%$

27%$ 29%$

21%$24%$

33%$

22%$

24%$

18%$

15%$

18%$

16%$

3%$ 4%$2%$

4%$ 3%$ 3%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Rural

16

25%$ 24%$ 25%$

20%$

25%$28%$

22%$22%$

18%$

27%$ 25%$25%$

2%$ 3%$2%$

4%$

1%$ 2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Classes ABC

17

30%$

21%$21%$

27%$30%$

37%$

20%$

21%$21%$

15%$ 16%$ 19%$

2%$4%$

1%$

6%$8%$

3%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Class D

18

30%$26%$ 26%$

18%$

24%$

30%$

22%$23%$

18%$

22%$22%$

22%$

3%$ 2%$ 2%$

4%$ 3%$ 2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Class E

19

27%$ 26%$29%$

22%$23%$

29%$

23%$22%$

18%$

23%$ 23%$

20%$

1%$ 1%$

3%$3%$4%$

1%$0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Males

20

27%$

22%$

24%$23%$

27%$

34%$

24%$ 24%$

18%$21%$

21%$20%$

2%$ 2%$ 1%$

4%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: Females

21

32%$29%$

29%$

18%$21%$

26%$

20%$

22%$

18%$

23%$ 22%$ 22%$

3%$ 2%$3%$

4%$ 3%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: 18-34 years old

22

34%$

29%$ 30%$

20%$

28%$

34%$

22%$ 20%$

18%$18%$18%$

14%$

3%$ 3%$2%$

2%$ 3%$ 2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: 35-54 years old

23

28%$24%$

25%$22%$

24%$

30%$

20%$23%$

18%$

24%$23%$

23%$

2%$ 2%$ 3%$

4%$ 4%$2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President: 55 years & older

24

25%$

23%$

25%$

18%$

20%$

25%$25%$ 26%$

18%$

24%$ 24%$

27%$

2%$ 2%$ 3%$

6%$ 5%$

2%$

0%#

5%#

10%#

15%#

20%#

25%#

30%#

35%#

40%#

45%#

50%#

Jan#2016# Feb#2016# Mar#2016#



Voter Preference for President by Religious Affiliation

25

PH

Catholic

Iglesia ni Cristo

Born Again

Muslim

Aglipayan

Others 5%

13%

1%

5%

7%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

2%

2%

11%

8%

28%

20%

18%

18%

18%

19%

34%

26%

20%

13%

21%

21%

20%

33%

11%

24%

38%

27%

27%

42%

13%

33%

31%

24%

30%

30%



Voter Preference for President by Ethnicity

26

PH

Tagalog

Cebuano

Ilocano

Ilonggo

Bicolano

Waray

Pangasinense

Kapampangan

Others 1%

2%

1%

3%

6%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

3%

3%

1%

3%

2%

23%

23%

23%

39%

19%

7%

32%

7%

20%

18%

23%

13%

14%

11%

29%

44%

14%

23%

14%

21%

17%

30%

49%

18%

38%

19%

32%

16%

36%

27%

35%

31%

12%

32%

11%

22%

15%

50%

25%

30%


nationwide survey of 3,000 likely voters*: the … · nationwide survey of 3,000 likely voters,...

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