NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF UNIONIZATIONON PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYERS: 1984-2001

John DiNardoDavid S. Lee

Working Paper 10598http://www.nber.org/papers/w10598

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts Avenue

Cambridge, MA 02138June 2004

Matthew Butler and Francisco Martorell provided outstanding research assistance. We would like to thankDavid Card, Robert J. LaLonde, Larry Katz, Enrico Moretti, Morris Kleiner, for helpful discussions and HankFarber for providing election data. We would also like to thank seminar participants at the Bureau of LaborStatistics, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the NBER Labor Economics Summer Institute, and theUniversity of Michigan Labor Workshop for comments on an earlier paper, Ritch Milby at the CaliforniaCensus Data Center, Andrew Hildreth, and Thomas Kochan. The research in this paper was conducted whileone of the authors was a Census Bureau research associate at the Berkeley California Census Research DataCenter. Research results and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily indicateconcurrence by the Bureau of the Census, National Labor Relations Board, the Federal Mediation andConciliation Service, or the Institute for Labor and Employment. The results in this paper have been screenedto ensure that no confidential data are revealed. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) andnot necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

©2004 by John DiNardo and David S. Lee. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed twoparagraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is givento the source.

Economic Impacts of Unionization on Private Sector Employers: 1984-2001John DiNardo and David S. LeeNBER Working Paper No. 10598June 2004JEL No. J0, J2, J3, J5, C1, C5

ABSTRACT

Economic impacts of unionization on employers are difficult to estimate in the absence of large,

representative data on establishments with union status information. Estimates are also confounded

by selection bias, because unions could organize at highly profitable enterprises that are more likely

to grow and pay higher wages. Using multiple establishment-level data sets that represent

establishments that faced organizing drives in the U.S. during 1984-1999, this paper uses a

regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of unionization on business survival,

employment, output, productivity, and wages. Essentially, outcomes for employers where unions

barely won the election (e.g. by one vote) are compared to those where the unions barely lost. The

analysis finds small impacts on all outcomes that we examine; estimates for wages are close to zero.

The evidence suggests that n at least in recent decades n the legal mandate that requires the

employer to bargain with a certified union has had little economic impact on employers, because

unions have been somewhat unsuccessful at securing significant wage gains.

John Dinardo440 Lorch HallFord School of Public PolicyUniversity of MichiganAnn Arbor, MI 48109-1220and NBERjdinardo@umich.edu

David S. LeeDepartment of Economics549 Evans Hall, #3880Berkeley, CA 94720-3880and NBERdslee@econ.berkeley.edu

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&/"/$'"= / 1,-4#" %/$ ,*+ *$#+5 ".#$ #+&#2/"-, D/,#/4(' /$ ".' &'1'+&'+" D/,#/4(' /+& ".' $1'((#+5 &#$"/+2'$ >-,

+/0' /+& /&&,'$$ /$ ".' #+&'1'+&'+" D/,#/4('$7 9.' 2-'>;2#'+"$ >,-0 ".#$ 1,-4#" E#+2(*&#+5 ".' 2-+$"/+"I

/,' *$'& "- 2-+$",*2" ".' #+&'? &'$2,#4'& /4-D'h #+2(*$#-+ -> ".' 2-+$"/+" #+ ".#$ #+&'? #01(#'$ "./" S #$ ".'

-1"#0/( ".,'$.-(& >-, &'2#&#+5 %./" #$ / 0/"2.7

`-"' "./" #+ -,&', "- 0/@' ".' /(5-,#".0 #+D/,#/+" "- ".' -,&', #+ %.#2. `VZF ,'2-,&$ /,' 0/"2.'&=

JG

".' 0/"2.#+5 /(5-,#".0 #$ &-+' a%#". ,'1(/2'0'+"b7 9./" #$= 0*("#1(' `VZF ,'2-,&$ 2-*(& 1-"'+"#/(()

0/"2. "- ".' $/0' W\^N EVZBI ,'2-,&7

c#". ".' VZB &/"/= '/2. '$"/4(#$.0'+" 2/+ ./D' 0*("#1(' +/0'$ E&*' "- $1'((#+5 &#>>','+2'$= -,&',$

-> +/0'$= /+& -%+',$.#1 2./+5'$I= '/2. 2-,,'$1-+&#+5 "- -+' )'/, %#".#+ ".' (-+5#"*&#+/( &/"/4/$'7HP 9.*$=

`VZF ,'2-,&$ "'+&'& "- 0/"2. "- $'D',/( &#>>','+" +/0'$= /+& #" %/$ +'2'$$/,) "- 1#2@ ".' $#+5(' a4'$"b

0/"2.7 9.#$ %/$ &-+' 4) ;,$" '(#0#+/"#+5 /(( +/0'$ -> '$"/4(#$.0'+"$ >-, )'/,$ "./" %',' ']*/( "- -, 5,'/"',

"./+ ".' )'/, -> ".' '('2"#-+7 9.'+= /0-+5 ".' ,'0/#+#+5 0/"2.'$ < %.#2. /(( ./& #+&#2'$ 5,'/"', "./+ S <

".' .#5.'$" 0/"2. #+&'? %/$ 2.-$'+7 9.' $#+5(' '$"/4(#$.0'+" "./" ./& "./" .#5.'$" #+&'? %/$ /$$#5+'& "-

".' `VZF ,'2-,&7 K5/#+= +-"' "./" #" #$ 1-$$#4('= 5#D'+ 0/"2.#+5 a%#". ,'1(/2'0'+"b "./" 0-,' "./+ -+'

`VZF ,'2-,& 2/+ 0/"2. "- ".' $/0' '$"/4(#$.0'+"7 9.','>-,'= /(( $"/+&/,& ',,-,$ /,' 2(*$"','& /" ".' ('D'(

-> ".' '$"/4(#$.0'+"7

N/01(' N'('2"#-+ /+& m/,#/4(' ^-+$",*2"#-+ W#,$"= #+ -,&', "- 0#+#0#C' 0'/$*,'0'+" ',,-, #+ -*,

$*,D#D/( #+&#2/"-,= %' @''1 -+() ".-$' `VZF ,'2-,&$ "./" ./D' / +-+<0#$$#+5 $",''" /&&,'$$= /+& ".-$'

/&&,'$$'$ "./" %',' $*22'$$>*(() $"/+&/,&#C'& *$#+5 -*, /&&,'$$ $"/+&/,&#C/"#-+ $->"%/,'7 !+ /&&#"#-+= %'

@''1 /(( '('2"#-+$ #+ %.#2. AS -, 0-,' D-"'$ %',' 2/$"7 K11'+&#? 9/4(' ! ,'1-,"$ ".' 0'/+$ /+& $"/+&/,&

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9.' "/4(' $.-%$ "./" ".' 0'/+$ /,' ,'/$-+/4() $#0#(/, 4'"%''+ ".' "%- $/01('$= '?2'1" #+ ".' D/,#/4('$ "./"

,'X'2" ".' $2/(' -> ".' '01(-)', E+*04', -> '(#5#4(' D-"',$= D-"'$ 2/$"= '01(-)0'+"= $/('$ D-(*0'I7

W#+/(()= 5,'/" 2/,' %/$ "/@'+ "- 2-+$",*2" ".' D-"' $./,' >-, ".' *+#-+7 9.',' #$ / 1,-4('0 %#".

$#01() 2-01*"#+5 ".' ,/"#- -> ".' +*04', -> D-"'$ >-, ".' *+#-+ "- ".' "-"/( +*04', -> D-"'$7 9.#$ #$ 4'2/*$'

".',' #$ $*4$"/+"#/( D/,#/4#(#") #+ ".' +*04', -> D-"'$ 2/$"= /+& / *+#-+ D#2"-,) #$ $'2*,'& 4) -4"/#+#+5 $",#2"()

0-,' "./+ PS 1',2'+" -> ".' D-"' E1(*$ 8 D-"'I7 ^-+$#&', /(( '('2"#-+$ %.',' /+ 'D'+ +*04', -> D-"'$ /,'

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+86.,,+"%$ "./" /+ '('2"#-+ %#". ('$$ "./+ 8SS D-"'$ 2/$" 2-*(& ./D' / D-"' $./,' 4'"%''+ PS /+& P8 1',2'+"

-> ".' D-"'7 9.#$ 8$'1!(+'!%%& #+&*2'$ / &#$2-+"#+*#") #+ ".' $#C' &#$",#4*"#-+ /" ".' PS 1',2'+" ".,'$.-(& ->

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#+$"'/& ./$ ;+#"' /+& &#$2,'"' $*11-,"= %#". ".' $*11-," 2./+5#+5 %#". ".' +*04', -> D-"'$ 2/$"7

$% \-,' $1'2#;2/(()= ".' VZB #"$'(> &-'$ +-" 2-+"/#+ +/0'$ /+& /&&,'$$'$7 !" 0*$" 4' 0',5'& -+ >,-0 ".' N"/+&/,& N"/"#$"#2/(n$"/4(#$.0'+" V#$" ENNnVI < D#/ / *+#]*' #&'+"#;', "./" (#+@$ ".' "%- &/"/ $'"$7

HS

9.*$= %' 0/&' / 0#+-, /&e*$"0'+" "- ".' D-"' $./,' D/,#/4(' #+ -,&', '(#0#+/"' ".#$ 1,-4('07 W-,

'D',) 2/$' %.',' ".',' %/$ /+ $2$( +*04', -> D-"'$ 2/$"= /+ /0-*+" ']*/( "- $8#9!4 D-"'$ 2/$"" %/$

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S7PS < S7S8 v 7HGh AQ -*" -> PS D-"'$ 0'/+" / D-"' $./,' -> S7PA < 7S8 v S7P87 ^/$'$ %.',' /+ -&& +*04', ->

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$./,' -> S7PAP= $./,'$ 4'"%''+ S7HP /+& S7PS %',' /$$#5+'& ".' $./,' -> S7H_P= /+& $- >-,".7 !+ ".#$ %/)=

D-"' $./,'$ %',' $"/+&/,&#C'& "- ".' $*11-," >-, ".' '('2"#-+$ %#". ".' $0/(('$" +*04', -> D-"'$ 2/$" EASI7

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8 D-"'7 9.#$ '(#0#+/"'$ ".#$ a#+"'5', 1,-4('0b= 4*" /" ".' $/0' "#0' "'+&$ "- 1*$. (/,5', '$"/4(#$.0'+"$

/%/) >,-0 ".' ".,'$.-(& "./" &'"',0#+'$ D#2"-,) E5'+',/"#+5 / 1,-+-*+2'& M<$./1' #+ ".' /D',/5' $#C'

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*$'& #+ B#`/,&- /+& V'' iASS8jh #" $.-*(& 4' +-"'& "./" ".' ,'$*("$ ,'1-,"'& ".',' /,' ]*/(#"/"#D'() /+&

]*/+"#"/"#D'() $#0#(/, "- ".' ,'$*("$ #+ ".#$ 1/1',= $*55'$"#+5 "./" -*, ;+&#+5$ /,' +-" $'+$#"#D' "- ".' 0'".-&

*$'& "- /&&,'$$ ".' #+"'5', 1,-4('07

H8

B 0 : Law Prohibits UnionsBM : Law Allows Unions, No ElectionB N : Law Allows Unions, Election Held, Union LosesB U : Law Allows Unions, Election Held, Union Wins

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0.02

5

0.07

5

0.12

5

0.17

5

0.22

5

0.27

5

0.32

5

0.37

5

0.42

5

0.47

5

0.52

5

0.57

5

0.62

5

0.67

5

0.72

5

0.77

5

0.82

5

0.87

5

0.92

5

0.97

5

InfoUSA sampleLRD sample

B 0 (V)

B M (V)B N (V)

B U (V)

50%Vote Share (How Workers Would Vote)

Bar

gain

ing

Pow

er o

f Wor

kers

Figure ITheoretical Relation Between Employer Outcome and Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Perc

ent

Figure IIDistribution of Union Vote Share, All Certification Elections, InfoUSA and LRD sample

Note: InfoUSA sample: 27560 observations, LRD sample; 5608 observations

Direct Impact

Indirect Impact(Threat)

Impact of Permitting Unions

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Post-Cert. Election, 0.217 (0.014)

Post-Decert. Election, 0.348 (0.033)

Prior to Cert. Election, 0.042 (0.010)

Prior to Decert. Election, 0.008 (0.038)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Union Recognition,0.994 (0.001)(2nd) RecognitionLater, -0.100 (0.01)Decertified Later,0.083 (0.007)

Figure IIIa: Recognition, Subsequent Certification or Decertification, by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Prob

abili

ty

Figure IIIb: Contract Expiration Notice Filed, Prior to and Post-Certification or Decertification Election, by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Prob

abili

ty

Note: 21405 Observations

Note: 21405, 3785, 21457, and 3445 Observations, respectively.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.000.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

Certification Election

Fit, Cert., -0.012 (0.014)

Decertification Election

Fit, Decert., 0.032 (0.033)

Figure IVa: Survival at Year 2001, by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Prob

abili

ty, C

ert.

Probability, Decert.

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

4.20

4.40

4.60

4.80

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.004.00

4.20

4.40

4.60

4.80

5.00

5.20

5.40

5.60

5.80

6.00

Certification Election

Fit, Cert., 0.029 (0.068)

Decertification Election

Fit, Decert., 0.017 (0.141)

Figure IVb: Log(Employment), Year 2001, by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Log(

Empl

.), C

ert. Log(Em

pl.), Decert.

Note: 27560 and 4638 observations, respectively.

Note: 9792 and 1857 observations, respectively.

7.80

8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.009.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

10.20

10.40

10.60

10.80

11.00

11.20

Certification Election

Fit, Cert., -0.072 (0.079)

Decertification Election

Fit, Decert., -0.050 (0.174)

Figure Va: Log(Sales), by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

4.20

4.40

4.60

4.80

5.00

5.20

5.40

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.005.00

5.20

5.40

5.60

5.80

6.00

6.20

6.40

6.60

6.80

7.00

Certification Election

Fit, Cert., -0.053 (0.049)

Decertification Election

Fit, Decert., 0.047 (0.112)

Figure Vb: Log(Sales/Worker), by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Log(

Sale

s/W

orke

r), C

ert. Log(Sales/W

orker), Decert.

Log(

Sale

s), C

ert. Log(Sales), D

ecert.

Note: 9125 and 1738 observations, respectively.

Note: 8634 and 1674 observations, respectively.

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.003.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

4.10

4.20

4.30

4.40

4.50ManufacturingFit, -0.036 (0.012)ServiceFit, 0.033 (0.011)Log(Votes Cast)Fit, 0.028 (0.020)

Figure VIa: Baseline Characteristics at Time of Election, by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Prob

abili

ty

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.003.50

3.60

3.70

3.80

3.90

4.00

4.10

4.20

4.30

4.40

4.50ManufacturingFit, -0.024 (0.020)ServiceFit, 0.003 (0.018)Log(Votes Cast)Fit, 0.007 (0.032)

Figure VIb: Baseline Characteristics at Time of Election, Conditional on Survival at Year 2001, by Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Prob

abili

ty

Log(Total Votes C

ast)Log(Total V

otes Cast)

Note: 32198 observations

Note: 13062 observations

Note: 5608 Observations, 4816 Establishments

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

MeanFit, -0.026 (0.029)

Figure VIIa: Survival at Year 1997, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Prob

abili

ty

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.006

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Mean, Year last observedFit -0.042 (-.250)Mean, Years in businessFit, -0.379 (0.509)

Union Vote Share

Union Vote Share

Figure VIIb: Last Year Observed and Years in Business Since Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Last

Yea

r Obs

erve

d (S

ince

Ele

ctio

n)Y

ears in Business (Since Election)

Note: Observations: Pre-Election 38870, Post-Election 28929, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 28790

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Pre-Election

Post-Election

Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean

Figure VIIIa: Observation of a Contract Expiration Notice, Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Prob

abili

ty

Union Vote Share

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

5.75

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Pre-Election

Post-Election

Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean

Figure VIIIb: Log(Production Hours/1000), Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Log(

Hou

rs/1

000)

Union Vote Share

De-m

eaned Log(Hours/1000)

Note: Observations: Pre-Election 38854, Post-Election 28918, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 28785

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Pre-ElectionPost-ElectionPost-Election minus Pre-Election Mean

Figure IXb: Log(Output/Hour), Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Log(

Out

put/H

our)

Union Vote Share

De-m

eaned Log(Output/hour)

8.50

8.75

9.00

9.25

9.50

9.75

10.00

10.25

10.50

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

Pre-Election

Post-Election

Post-Election minus Pre-Election

Figure IXa: Log(Output/1000), Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Log(

Out

put/1

000)

Union Vote Share

De-m

eaned Log(Output/1000)

Note: Observations: Panel A, Pre-Election 37005, Post-Election 20505, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 20346Panel B, Pre-Election 38870, Post-Election 28929, Post-Election minus Pre-Election Mean 28790

2.35

2.40

2.45

2.50

2.55

2.60

2.65

2.70

2.75

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30Pre-ElectionPost-ElectionPost-Election minus Pre-Election Mean

Figure Xb: Log(Production Hourly Wage), Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Log(

Wag

e)

Union Vote Share

De-m

eaned Log(Wage)

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00-2.00

-1.75

-1.50

-1.25

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00Pre-ElectionPost-ElectionPost-Election minus Pre-Election Mean

Figure Xa: Log((Assets/worker)/1000), Pre- and Post-Election, by Union Vote Share, LRD

Log(

(Ass

ets/

wor

ker)

/100

0)

Union Vote Share

De-m

eaned Log((Assets/w

orker)/1000)

Note: Panel A, 32538 Obs, 3584 Establishments; Panel B, 14899 Obs, 1891 Establishments

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EstimateLower 95Upper 95

Figure XIa: Event Study Estimates of Election Impact on Log(Wage), All Union Losses

Event time

Log(

Wag

e)

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EstimateLower 95Upper 95

Event time

Log(

Wag

e)

Figure XIb: Event Study Estimates of Election Impact on Log(Wage), Union Loses, Vote Share: 30 to 50 percent

Table I: OLS and R

egression-Discontinuity Estim

ates, Impact of U

nion Recognition on B

usiness Survival

(1)(2)

(3)(4)

(5)(6)

(7)(8)

(9)(10)

(11)

Union W

on-0.089

-0.092-0.078

-0.073-0.046

-0.041-0.027

-0.026-0.021

-0.025-0.021

(0.013)(0.013)

(0.013)(0.013)

(0.022)(0.023)

(0.029)(0.029)

(0.028)(0.028)

(0.028)V

ote Share--

----

---0.130

0.1820.499

0.3790.552

0.120-0.062

(0.055)(0.134)

(0.398)(0.732)

(0.720)(0.721)

(0.730)(V

ote Share) 2--

----

----

-0.322-1.110

-0.630-1.405

-0.5330.143

(0.130)(0.946)

(2.670)(2.618)

(2.615)(2.638)

(Vote Share) 3

----

----

----

0.516-0.210

0.8620.415

-0.551(0.617)

(3.886)(3.804)

(3.797)(3.818)

(Vote Share) 4

----

----

----

--0.365

-0.106-0.133

0.331(1.947)

(1.905)(1.902)

(1.907)Log(V

otes Cast)

----

0.0610.065

----

----

--0.059

0.064(0.008)

(0.008)(0.008)

(0.008)Y

ear dumm

ies?N

oY

esY

esY

esN

oN

oN

oN

oY

esY

esY

es

Industry dumm

ies?N

oN

oN

oY

esN

oN

oN

oN

oN

oN

oY

es

R-Squared

0.00840.0614

0.07290.0893

0.00940.0106

0.01070.0107

0.06370.0743

0.0907

Note:

Sample

sizeis

5608.Som

eelections

match

tosam

eestablishm

ent,so

standarderrors

areclustered

onthe

establishment

level(4816

independentestablishm

ents).Includesallelections

thatoccurredbefore

1997thathas

thesam

enam

eand

addressas

apre-election-yearentry

inthe

LRD

.Dependentvariable

is whether establishm

ent appears in the 1997 Census of M

anufactures. Least squares point estimates reported.

Table II: Least-squares Regression-D

iscontinuity Estimates of U

nion Effects

Dependent V

ariableC

oefficient on Won Election

(1)(2)

(3)(4)

(5)(6)

(7)(8)

(9)(10)

Contract Expiration

0.2200.252

0.1980.191

0.2020.198

0.1810.182

0.1810.179

(0.021)(0.011)

(0.016)(0.017)

(0.020)(0.022)

(0.020)(0.020)

(0.020)(0.020)

[4733][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

Log(Hours)

0.009-0.318

-0.260-0.203

0.0850.097

-0.0240.015

0.0180.028

(0.087)(0.036)

(0.063)(0.063)

(0.080)(0.080)

(0.056)(0.051)

(0.050)(0.049)

[4733][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

Log(Output)

0.079-0.347

-0.293-0.254

0.0670.080

-0.043-0.010

-0.0040.011

(0.094)(0.042)

(0.072)(0.073)

(0.090)(0.091)

(0.055)(0.050)

(0.050)(0.049)

[4730][28785]

[28785][28785]

[28785][28785]

[28785][28785]

[28785][28785]

Log(Output/w

orker)0.072

-0.028-0.032

-0.051-0.018

-0.016-0.019

-0.019-0.018

-0.015(0.063)

(0.029)(0.048)

(0.048)(0.060)

(0.061)(0.035)

(0.034)(0.034)

(0.034)[4730]

[28785][28785]

[28785][28785]

[28785][28785]

[28785][28785]

[28785]Log(A

ssets/worker)

-0.1210.122

0.020-0.020

-0.059-0.048

-0.136-0.090

-0.064-0.029

(0.108)(0.049)

(0.082)(0.082)

(0.102)(0.103)

(0.104)(0.093)

(0.075)(0.072)

[3379][20346]

[20346][20346]

[20346][20346]

[20346][20346]

[20346][20346]

Log(Wage)

0.015-0.039

-0.041-0.044

-0.005-0.002

-0.026-0.018

-0.018-0.016

(0.025)(0.011)

(0.019)(0.020)

(0.024)(0.024)

(0.017)(0.016)

(0.016)(0.015)

[4733][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

[28796][28796]

Sample

+/- 5%A

llA

llA

llA

llA

llA

llA

llA

llA

llPolynom

ial Terms

00

12

34

44

44

Dependent V

ariableLevel

LevelLevel

LevelLevel

LevelD

e-meaned

De-m

eanedD

e-meaned

De-m

eanedInclude B

ase Mean?

No

No

No

No

No

No

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Year dum

mies

No

No

No

No

No

No

No

No

Yes

Yes

Industry dumm

iesN

oN

oN

oN

oN

oN

oN

oN

oN

oY

es

Note:W

ithin-electionclustered

standarderrors

inparentheses.N

umber

ofobservations

inbrackets.Each

entryis

theestim

atedcoefficienton

the"U

nionw

on"indicatorin

aleastsquares

regression."Base

Mean"

isthe

averageofthe

dependentvariableforyears

strictlybefore

theelection

year."D

e-meaned"

denotesthatthe

dependentvariableisthe

outcome

minusthe

"basem

ean"."+/-5%"

sample

areelections

where

theunion

voteshare

isbetw

een 45 and 55 percent.

Table III: Least-squares Regression-Discontinuity Estimates ofUnion Effects, by Time after Election

Dependent Variable (1) (2) (3)

Contract Expiration 0.077 0.307 0.214(0.018) (0.032) (0.041)

[13240] [8745] [6811]Log(Hours) 0.030 0.032 0.041

(0.042) (0.066) (0.094)[13240] [8745] [6811]

Log(Output) 0.001 0.030 0.040(0.044) (0.064) (0.092)

[13235] [8742] [6808]Log(Output/worker) -0.027 -0.004 0.008

(0.031) (0.046) (0.061)[13235] [8742] [6808]

Log(Assets/worker) -0.043 -0.035 0.029(0.070) (0.114) (0.133)

[10332] [6167] [3847]Log(Wage) -0.013 -0.025 -0.005

(0.015) (0.021) (0.028)[13240] [8745] [6811]

Sample 0-3 Years 4-7 Years 8+ Yearspost-El. post-El. post-El.

Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses.Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimatedcoefficient on the "Union won" indicator in a least squaresregression. Specification is the same as Col. (10) in Table 2. Eachcolumn restricts the sample to the observations that are within thefirst three years, between four to seven years, and eight years orlater, relative to the election year.

Table IV: Least-squares R

egression-Discontinuity Estim

ates of Union Effects, by Sub-Sam

ple

Dependent V

ariable(1)

(2)(3)

(4)(5)

(6)(7)

(8)(9)

Contract Expiration

0.1790.139

0.2050.160

0.1990.196

0.1710.166

0.191(0.020)

(0.028)(0.028)

(0.027)(0.030)

(0.037)(0.024)

(0.028)(0.028)

[28796][11500]

[17296][15586]

[13210][6609]

[22187][14620]

[14176]Log(H

ours)0.028

0.0270.056

-0.0650.138

0.1290.000

0.0240.028

(0.049)(0.063)

(0.064)(0.060)

(0.081)(0.109)

(0.054)(0.073)

(0.066)[28796]

[11500][17296]

[15586][13210]

[6609][22187]

[14620][14176]

Log(Output)

0.011-0.050

0.077-0.080

0.1170.040

0.0000.036

-0.018(0.049)

(0.070)(0.063)

(0.059)(0.079)

(0.117)(0.053)

(0.074)(0.065)

[28785][11495]

[17290][15577]

[13208][6608]

[22177][14614]

[14171]Log(O

utput/worker)

-0.015-0.068

0.027-0.019

-0.013-0.079

0.001-0.003

-0.033(0.034)

(0.048)(0.045)

(0.043)(0.053)

(0.069)(0.039)

(0.047)(0.049)

[28785][11495]

[17290][15577]

[13208][6608]

[22177][14614]

[14171]Log(A

ssets/worker)

-0.0290.061

-0.072-0.079

0.047-0.016

-0.0510.076

-0.129(0.072)

(0.093)(0.100)

(0.090)(0.111)

(0.141)(0.085)

(0.107)(0.096)

[20346][8090]

[12256][11035]

[9311][4769]

[15577][10054]

[10292]Log(W

age)-0.016

-0.021-0.016

0.001-0.038

-0.035-0.011

-0.029-0.002

(0.015)(0.023)

(0.020)(0.019)

(0.024)(0.031)

(0.017)(0.022)

(0.021)[28796]

[11500][17296]

[15586][13210]

[6609][22187]

[14620][14176]

Sample

All

<75 Prod.75+ Prod.

|ln(ratio)|<|ln(ratio)|>=

Exact match

Non-Exact

"Low-w

age""H

igh-wage"

Workers

Workers

0.2850.285

on Str. Add.

match

IndustryIndustry

on Str. Add.

Note:W

ithin-electionclustered

standarderrors

inparentheses.N

umberofobservations

inbrackets.Each

entryis

theestim

atedcoefficienton

the"U

nionw

on"indicatorin

aleastsquares

regression.Specificationis

thesam

eas

Col.(10)in

Table2.Each

column

usesadifferentsub

sample.(2)

and(3)

splitthesam

pleby

sizeofthe

votingunit;(4)

and(5)

byw

hetherthereis

anexactstring

match

between

thestreetaddress

entryfrom

theN

LRB

and LRD

data sets; and (6) and (7) by "high-wage" and "low

-wage" industries.

Appendix Table I: Description of Data Sets

Data Set Description Main Variables

NLRB National Labor Relations Board Election Database: Contains universe of representation elections (certification and decertification) that occurred in the U.S. between 1984 and 1999. Total observations: 62415.

Date of election, # eligible voters, # votes cast, # votes for the union

FMCS Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service Database: Contains all contract expiration notices filed with the FMCS between 1984 and 2001. Total Observations: 563565.

Date of Contract Expiration

InfoUSA InfoUSA Database: Contains all business establishments that appear in Phone Directories, as of May, 2001.

Employment, Sales Volume

LRD Longitudinal Research Database: Comprised of two components. 1) Census of Manufactures (1977, 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997): Universe of all manufacturing establishments in the U.S., and 2) Annual Survey of Manufactures (1974-1999): Universe of all large manufacturing establishments plus probability sample of smaller manufacturers.

Wages, Hours, Output, Total Value of Shipments, Assets

NLRB/FMCS/InfoUSA Total number of elections (62415). 20+ votes cast (33503), <1000 votes cast (33382), certification and de-certification elections only (32855), valid election date (32712). Company name and establishment street address used to match to FMCS and InfoUSA data. 13062 of the 32712 were found in the InfoUSA database (as of May, 2001).

Variables from NLRB, FMCS, and InfoUSA

NLRB/FMCS/LRD Company name and establishment street address used to match NLRB/FMCS data (32712 observations) (see above) to LRD. Kept only matches where the year from the LRD is strictly less than the year of the election. With multiple matches, single "best" match was kept. 8533 of the 32712 matched. Kept cases where the ratio of eligible voters (NLRB) to production workers (LRD) is at least half (7743 of 8533).

Variables from NLRB, FMCS, and LRD

Appendix Table II: Sample Means, Infousa/NLRB/FMCS and LRD/NLRB/FMCS data sets

InfoUSA/NLRB/FMCS LRD/NLRB/FMCSVariable Obs Mean Std. Dev Std. Error Obs Mean Std. Dev Std. Error

Union Wins Election 27560 0.429 0.495 (0.003) 5608 0.360 0.480 (0.006)Number of Votes Cast 27560 88.6 107.6 (0.6) 5608 111.9 121.9 (1.6)Log(Votes Cast) 27560 4.091 0.806 (0.005) 5608 4.327 0.840 (0.011)Total Employment 16987 172.8 353.0 (2.7) 5608 149.6 192.0 (2.6)Log(Employment) 16987 4.057 1.645 (0.013) 5608 4.412 1.197 (0.016)Total Value of Shipments ($1000) 16200 32192.3 72308.4 (568.1) 5608 32217.9 71991.9 (961.3)Log(Total Value of Shipments) 16200 8.984 1.832 (0.014) 5605 9.434 1.478 (0.020)Log(Shipments/Employment) 8634 5.111 0.966 (0.010) 5605 5.021 0.772 (0.010)Number of Production Workers --- --- --- --- 5608 112.1 151.9 (2.0)Log(Production Workers) --- --- --- --- 5608 4.077 1.239 (0.017)Production Man-hours (1000s) --- --- --- --- 5608 228.9 308.8 (4.1)Log(Production Hours) --- --- --- --- 5608 4.762 1.281 (0.017)Shipments per Production Hour --- --- --- --- 5608 140.9 207.9 (2.8)Log(Shipments/Hour) --- --- --- --- 5605 4.671 0.833 (0.011)Employee Annual Earnings ($1000) --- --- --- --- 5608 27.4 11.1 (0.1)Log(Annual Earnings) --- --- --- --- 5608 3.383 0.374 (0.005)Production Wage --- --- --- --- 5608 11.9 6.1 (0.1)Log(Production Wage) --- --- --- --- 5608 2.538 0.377 (0.005)Notes: Certification election cases only. Total Employment (I/N/F: reported; L/N/F: sum of non-production workers during quarter that contains March 12and productionworkers). Total Value of Shipments (I/N/F and L/N/F): dollar value of products and services sold. Production workers: average of production workers in 4 quarterscontaining the 12th of March, May, August, and November. Production Man-Hours: sum of 4 quarters of plant man-hours of production workers. Employee AnnualEarnings: Sum of earnings paid to production and non-production workers, divided by total employment. Production Wage: Earnings paid to production workers, dividedby production man-hours. Dollar amounts are in 2001 dollars for InfoUSA/NLRB/FMCS, and are (CPI-adjusted) 2000 dollars for LRD/NLRB/FMCS.

Appendix Table III: Correlation Between Similar Measures across Datasets

Data Set Dependent Variable Mean Slope Coefficient on Alternative MeasureAll Exact Street Non-Exact

Match Match

InfoUSA Log(Employment) 4.298 0.913 0.910 0.906(0.024) (0.011) (0.017) (0.020)[4181] [4181] [2692] [1489]

NLRB Log(Eligible Voters) 4.273 0.237 0.233 0.248(0.013) (0.010) (0.013) (0.015)[4181] [4181] [2692] [1489]

LRD Log(Prod. Workers) 4.605 0.972 0.959 0.976(0.016) (0.010) (0.017) (0.012)[3583] [3583] [841] [2742]

NLRB Log(Eligible Voters) 4.678 0.743 0.824 0.722(0.014) (0.008) (0.015) (0.009)[3583] [3583] [841] [2742]

Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Number of observations in brackets. Upper panel reports median regressionslope coefficients. Lower panel reports OLS slope coefficients. Each entry is slope coefficient on the alternativemeasure (e.g. 0.913 is the slope coefficient from a median regression of Log(Employment) from InfoUSA onLog(Eligible Voters) from NLRB. The entry below is the reverse median regression). "Exact Street Match"indicates that the street address matched exactly between the two data sets.

Appendix Table IV: Coefficients on Won Election, Alternative Measuresof Employer Outcomes

"Labor Inputs" "Capital"Log(Total Empl.) 0.039 Log(Total Assets) -0.012

(0.045) (0.077)[28796] [20346]

Log(Non-prod. Empl.) 0.027 Log(Assets/Total -0.028(0.051) Empl.) (0.069)[28096] [20346]

Log(Production Empl.) 0.037 Log(Assets/Production -0.029(0.048) Empl.) (0.072)[28796] [20346]

Log(Production Hours) 0.028 Log(Assets/Production -0.029(0.049) Hours) (0.072)[28796] [20346]

"Output" "Wages"Log(Total Value of 0.011 Log(Annual Earnings) -0.028Shipments) (0.049) (0.015)

[28785] [28796]Log(Adjusted Value 0.016 Log(Production Annual -0.027of Shipments) (0.050) Earnings) (0.016)

[28778] [28796]Log(Production Hourly -0.016Wage) (0.015)

"Productivity" [28796]Log(TVS/Total Empl.) -0.027 Log(Non-production -0.009

(0.030) Annual Earnings) (0.024)[28785] [27991]

Log(Adj. TVS/Total -0.024 Log(Non-prod/Prod. 0.010Empl.) (0.030) Annual Earnings) (0.028)

[28778] [27991]Log(TVS/Production -0.026 Log(Adjusted Annual -0.025Empl.) (0.033) Earnings) (0.015)

[28785] [28796]Log(Adj. TVS/Prod. -0.023 Log(Adj. Production -0.024Empl.) (0.034) Annual Earnings) (0.016)

[28778] [28796]Log(TVS/Production -0.015 Log(Adj. Production -0.013Hours) (0.034) Hourly Wage) (0.016)

[28785] [28796]Log(Adj. TVS/Prod. -0.012 Log(Adj. Non-prod. -0.006Hours) (0.034) Annual Earnings) (0.025)

[28778] [27991]Note: Entries are coefficients from specification (10) from Table 2). Clustered (on establishment) standard errors in parentheses, number of observations in brackets. Adjusted TVS: TVS + net change in finished goods inventory + net change in work-in-process inventory. Adjusted wage variables add total supplementary labor costs to the payroll before dividing by employment (or hours). For production and non-production "wage" variables, total supplementary labor costs are first mulitplied by the fraction of the payroll that is paid to production or non-production workers, before added to the respective payrolls.

Appendix Table V: OLS and Regression-Discontinuity Estimates on Business Survival, Decertifications

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

Union Won -0.030 -0.036 -0.047 -0.035 -0.058 -0.035 -0.019 -0.027 -0.031 -0.026 -0.021(0.029) (0.029) (0.029) (0.029) (0.048) (0.049) (0.061) (0.062) (0.062) (0.061) (0.062)

Vote Share 0.086 0.536 0.815 1.590 1.560 1.847 1.755(0.120) (0.266) (0.738) (1.332) (1.309) (1.307) (1.296)

(Vote Share)2 -0.561 -1.338 -4.887 -5.005 -6.423 -6.040(0.300) (1.911) (5.356) (5.234) (5.248) (5.239)

(Vote Share)3 0.546 6.414 6.866 8.949 8.440(1.316) (8.356) (8.118) (8.169) (8.196)

(Vote Share)4 -3.138 -3.495 -4.465 -4.228(4.414) (4.269) (4.304) (4.338)

Log(Votes Cast) 0.053 0.050 0.052 0.049(0.017) (0.018) (0.017) (0.018)

Year dummies? No Yes Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes Yes

Industry dummies? No No No Yes No No No No No No Yes

R-Squared 0.001 0.0394 0.048 0.0684 0.0015 0.0051 0.0053 0.0058 0.0442 0.0523 0.0723

Note: Sample size is 1085. Some elections match to same establishment, so standard errors are clustered on the establishment level (998 independentestablishments). Includes all elections that occurred before 1997 that has the same name and address as a pre-election-year entry in the LRD. Dependent variableis whether establishment appears in the 1997 Census of Manufactures. Least squares point estimates reported.

Appendix Table VI: Least-squares Regression-Discontinuity Estimates of Union Effects, Decertifications

Dependent Variable Coefficient on Won Election

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

Contract Expiration 0.257 0.328 0.280 0.261 0.242 0.226 0.217 0.220 0.218 0.232(0.060) (0.026) (0.042) (0.045) (0.056) (0.058) (0.056) (0.055) (0.056) (0.054)[1098] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954]

Log(Hours) -0.071 0.016 0.002 -0.005 -0.021 -0.038 0.006 -0.006 -0.004 -0.005(0.054) (0.024) (0.038) (0.039) (0.049) (0.050) (0.037) (0.035) (0.035) (0.031)[1098] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954]

Log(Output) -0.243 0.088 -0.115 -0.104 -0.414 -0.381 -0.160 -0.193 -0.196 -0.205(0.190) (0.081) (0.142) (0.143) (0.176) (0.174) (0.105) (0.100) (0.099) (0.094)[1098] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954] [5954]

Log(Output/worker) -0.233 0.153 -0.014 0.002 -0.484 -0.473 -0.221 -0.249 -0.252 -0.236(0.184) (0.088) (0.153) (0.150) (0.186) (0.183) (0.096) (0.092) (0.090) (0.087)[1098] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951]

Log(Assets/worker) 0.011 0.065 0.101 0.106 -0.070 -0.092 -0.065 -0.067 -0.067 -0.043(0.153) (0.065) (0.110) (0.111) (0.144) (0.142) (0.063) (0.063) (0.063) (0.062)[1098] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951] [5951]

Log(Wage) -0.342 -0.048 0.077 0.015 -0.128 -0.132 -0.156 -0.146 0.001 -0.033(0.226) (0.098) (0.163) (0.162) (0.207) (0.207) (0.189) (0.176) (0.141) (0.128)

[770] [4205] [4205] [4205] [4205] [4205] [4205] [4205] [4205] [4205]

Sample +/- 5% All All All All All All All All AllPolynomial Terms 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 4Dependent Variable Level Level Level Level Level Level De-meaned De-meaned De-meaned De-meanedInclude Base Mean? No No No No No No No Yes Yes YesYear dummies No No No No No No No No Yes YesIndustry dummies No No No No No No No No No Yes

Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses. Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimated coefficient on the"Union won" indicator in a least squares regression. "Base Mean" is the average of the dependent variable for years strictly before the election year."De-meaned" denotes that the dependent variable is the outcome minus the "base mean". "+/- 5%" sample are elections where the union vote share isbetween 45 and 55 percent.

Appendix Table VII: Least-squares Regression-DiscontinuityEstimates of Union Effects, Decertifications

Dependent Variable (1) (2) (3)

Contract Expiration 0.106 0.380 0.192(0.063) (0.068) (0.092)[2620] [1839] [1495]

Log(Hours) -0.026 0.021 0.018(0.032) (0.041) (0.067)[2620] [1839] [1495]

Log(Output) -0.155 -0.138 -0.372(0.082) (0.119) (0.174)[2620] [1839] [1495]

Log(Output/worker) -0.139 -0.193 -0.450(0.076) (0.112) (0.157)[2619] [1838] [1494]

Log(Assets/worker) 0.012 -0.064 -0.108(0.060) (0.085) (0.118)[2619] [1838] [1494]

Log(Wage) -0.091 -0.075 -0.037(0.133) (0.199) (0.211)[2071] [1284] [850]

Sample 0-3 Years 4-7 Years 8+ Yearspost-El. post-El. post-El.

Note: Within-election clustered standard errors in parentheses.Number of observations in brackets. Each entry is the estimatedcoefficient on the "Union won" indicator in a least squaresregression. Specification is the same as Col. (10) in Table 2. Eachcolumn restricts the sample to the observations that are within thefirst three years, between four to seven years, and eight years orlater, relative to the election year.