ncar annual budget review october 8, 2007 tim killeen ncar director
TRANSCRIPT
NCAR Annual Budget Review
October 8, 2007
Tim KilleenNCAR Director
NCAR MTDC ExpendituresActuals 1997- 2006; 2007-2008 projection
2.24%2.6%2.2%3.3%
7.0%8.1%
10.5%3.7%
5.6%9.3%
0.1%
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Proj
2008Proj
MTDC
MTDC Growth 1998 -
MTDC Growth 2000 - 2008: 46.8%
69.4%
NCAR Total Funding (Excludes HIAPER Expenses)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
NSF Base Funding & Supplemental Expenses Non-NSF Expenses
NCAR’s Annual Budget Review (ABR)
• Strategic Planning and the ABR• Overview of 08/09 ABR• Managing NCAR’s Budget• Summary of Laboratory Presentations
Strategic Planning and the ABR
• NCAR’s long-range planning provides the context for our short-term planning process – the ABR.
• The ABR ensures that our activities are consistent with our values and goals and illustrates where we need to make adjustments.
Strategic Planning
and the ABR
Annual Budget Review
Operating Plan
NCAR Annual Report
NCAR Strategic Plan
NSF Priorities
FY 2008/09 ABR Process
• Internal Lab ABRs
• Labs developed budget and program materials • Accomplishments to date• Plans and priorities for FY 2008 and FY 2009 • 5-year challenges and opportunities
• Presentations to NCAR Executive Committee
• Series of Executive Committee discussions on allocations
• Met with NSF on interim allocation proposal
• With NSF input, implementation and ABR close-out meetings held in late August
Budget Assumptions for FY 2008
• Plan at a conservative level
• Assume 0% to +3%, or $2.4M (Base) NCAR’s projected cost-of-business: 5%, $4.4M
Director’s ABR Guidance Letter for FY 2008
dated March 1, 2007
Long-term Institutional priorities are:• Support for community user facilities and models• Creation of budgetary and programmatic flexibility• Support for Early Career Scientists • Support for programmatic innovation• Support for strategic integrative science• Proposed actions in response to the NSF review of
NCAR/UCAR
NSF Guidance Letter for FY 2007
dated May 5, 2007
• “[S]upport and stewardship to the atmospheric science community through its observing and computing facilities, including its community models.”
• “[C]reate programmatic and budgetary flexibility to ensure participation in community-driven atmospheric science research activities.”
2009/2010 Annual Budget Review
On-going dialogue with NSF through:
• Planning Meetings • NSF visits to the Laboratories • Programmatic Presentations at NSF
Managing our Budget
• Appropriation process uncertain and drawn-out.• NCAR frequently receives its target in the third
or fourth quarter of the year.• Program activities must fall within the fiscal year.• Base funds carryover is limited to 3% (or ~$2.4M) of
its program target. • SPERs - Allows NCAR to accumulate funds for large
events, i.e., aircraft inspections, super computer acquisitions.
• Carryover is always below 3% and NCAR has not had a deficit.
Summary of Laboratory ABR Presentations
CISL Priorities
• Data Center Replacement
• Computer acquisition fund
• Mass Store Archive
CISL Discussion Items
• Balance of service and research • Managing risk in the data center
replacement project• NCAR participation in NSF
cyberinfrastructure competitions
EOL Priorities
• HAIS• Support for Deployment Pool observational
systems• Field Program support and data services• Commitment to 2 aircraft concurrent operations• Wing-Inspection• Build up a long-term equipment replacement
reserve (i.e., C-130 Avionics)• Provide high level of service to increasingly
complex field projects
EOL Discussion Items
• Balance of facilities with development• Budget flexibility to support minor
fluctuations in field program support levels.
• Facility Development Concepts• CAPRIS• Modular Profiling Network• Virtual Operations Center
ESSL Priorities
• Climate Prediction (emphasis on short-term)• Biosphere-Hydrosphere-Atmosphere-
Interactions• Water System• Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting
System• Space Weather• Chemical Weather• Prediction Across Scales: Towards Earth
System Modeling
ESSL Discussion Items
• Plans for the Earth System Model
• Promising integrated research (e.g., BEACHON)
• Strategic Partnerships
RAL Priorities and Discussion Items
• Ensure the continued success of the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) and the Data Assimilation Testbed Center, expanding their testing and evaluation efforts to better serve the modeling community.
• Continue to demonstrate the value of improved weather and climate information through the Societal Impacts Program.
• Improve short-term forecasts of convective weather through the NCAR-wide Short-Term Explicit Prediction (STEP) program.
• Develop innovative methods and techniques to improve the verification of weather forecasts.
• Develop advanced decision support tools for water resource planning and management.
• Work with partners in developing countries to build expertise and infrastructure needed to address weather and climate hazards.
Societal-Environmental Research and Education Laboratory (SERE)
Priorities and Discussion Items
• Build capacity required to ensure resilient communities prepared to cope with and mitigate against climate, water and weather uncertainties.
• Development of the Societal-Resilience System of Systems (SRSS) Conceptual Framework, its Strategic Partners, and Guiding Questions.
• Use of coupled human and natural scientific information in the development of decision processes and assessment tools.
• Design and implement educational programs to ensure the availability of a scientifically literate and engaged workforce and the diversity of scientific excellence required to advance, implement and sustain SRSS.
Sr. Scientist Departures as of 9/21/07
Name
Reas on
Date o f S eparation
Phas ed Retirement
Date
S KUMANICH, ANDREW P . Retired 10/1/2001
MADDEN, ROLAND A. Retired 6/5/2002
CLARK, TERRY L. Retired 11/25/2002
MANKIN, WILLIAM G. Retired 1/4/2003
ERRICO, RONALD M. Voluntary 6/30/2003
ATLAS , ELLIOT L. Retired 8/16/2003
DYE, J AMES E. Retired 3/31/2004
SWARZTRAUBER, P AUL N Retired 10/31/2005
BLACKMON, MAURICE L. Retired 12/31/2005
HARRIS S , ROBERT C. Voluntary 2/2/2006
CROOK, N ANDREW Deceas ed 2/11/2006
BOGDAN, THOMAS J . Voluntary 5/31/2006
BOVILLE, BYRON A. Deceas ed 7/6/2006
HOLZER, THOMAS E. Retired 8/11/2006
RIDLEY, BRIAN A. Retired 2/9/2007
COLLINS , WILLIAM LOA 4/2/2007
BROWN, TIMOTHY LOA 6/18/2007
J ENNE, ROY L. Retired 7/13/2007
HACK, J AMES J . LOA TBD-1/08?
GILMAN, P ETER A. P has ed 5/31/2009
ROBLE, RAYMOND G. P has ed 5/31/2009
LEMONE, MARGARET A. P has ed 12/25/2009
Summary
• Continued augmentation of EOL (HAIS)• Increased climate and weather modeling• Initiated new diversity program• Enhanced the central visitor program• Began Earth System Modeling strategic initiative• Augmented CISL supercomputing fund• Sub-inflationary base budgets elsewhere• Slowed rejuvenation program (temporary)
Discussion
NCAR All Funds Summary
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07
$ x 1,000
NSF BASE (Target) STRAT INITIATIVES OPP FUNDS USWRP OTHER BASE TRSF NON-NSF (exp) NSF SPEC (exp)
HIAPER
FY07 expenses are assumed level at this time.
NCAR MTDC, Laboratory and Directorate Indirects% Expenses to MTDC
Actuals 2000 - 2006; 2007 Rate Submission
14.4%14.7%14.6%12.6%12.6%12.0%12.7%12.5%
2.3%2.2%2.4%2.2%2.3%2.1%2.0%1.9%
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Rate Sub
MTDC NCAR Lab Ind Director Indir
Difference of MTDC Rate Submission to Actual
(2,000)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
$ 000 Change
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
%Change
_ $ Actual from RS _ % Actual from RS
Laboratory IC Spending Trends: Actual Vs. Rate Submission
1,790,502140,720764,985
-2.5%
9.1%1.5%
18.0%-0.9%
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Rate Sub Actual IC
764,985
140,720
1,790,502
(204,967)
(113,910)
Note: FY07 represents preliminary targets & partial transfers
Facilities & Science Targets* Compared to CPI Inflation
25,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
43,000
45,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Facilities Target
Facilities in CPI Dollars
ScienceTarget
Science in CPI Dollars
* Includes Directorate Transfers
# of NCAR Total Non-Base Proposal Submissions by FY
117103
144132
157
186
157
185
244
183
246
276
253
294
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
# of Proposals
Note: Includes no-cost proposals, yet excludes proposals that have been voided or withdrawn.
251% Increase
from 1993
FY 2008 Proposed NSF Base Directorate Transfers
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
DIR E&O CISL ESSL EOL RAL SERE
Director Reserves
Diversity Funds
Opportunity Funds
USWRP
Strategic Initiatives
Director Research
Scientist I
Aircraft Reserves
NSF Fee
Visitor Program
Support for ISS-GAUS, S-Pol and HAIS
Graph 2. Non-NSF Proposed University Collaborators FY 1997 - 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fiscal Year
# of Collaborators
* This graph has been updated to reflect university collaborators on proposed non-NSF funding.
NCAR Total Proposals Awarded vs. DeclinedFY 1998 - 2006
97 97 96
125
94
133 131
107 108
80
4763
105
74
102121
10690
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 * 2006
Fiscal Year
Number of Proposals
NCAR Awards NCAR Declines
55% Win
67% Win
60% Win
54% Win
56% Win
57% Win
Note: Excludes MOU's and zero $ proposals.
Excludes proposals that are still pending or
have been voided or withdrawn.
52% Win
* FY 2006 has 63 proposals still under review,
therefore they are not yet awarded or declined.
50% Win
NCAR Total Non-Base Proposal Submissions
$ Amount Proposed
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
Fiscal Year
$ Amount Proposed
'000
$ Amount '000 125,171 38,161 51,190 108,098 75,731 142,442 98,709 86,890
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Total $ Amount Proposed by Fiscal Year to Total $ Amount Awarded by Proposal Number
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005
Total $ Amount Proposed Total $ Amount of Approved Awards by Proposal Number
$ x 1,000
NCAR Total Non-Base Proposal SubmissionsTotal $ Amount Proposed and Total $ Amount Proposed
for Subawards
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
FY 2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005
$ Amount Proposed $ Amount for Subawards