UCAR Members Meeting October 2005

Tim Killeen, DirectorNational Center for Atmospheric Research

NCAR Strategic Planning

2001 Plan: NCAR as an Integrator

– Goals – Progress and Recent Highlights

2006 Plan: NCAR as an Integrator, Innovator, and Community Builder

– Purpose and Context– Development Process– Goals– Next Steps– Discussion

NCAR 2001 Strategic Plan:NCAR as an Integrator

• Extensive re-examination of NCAR activities and objectives for:– Service – Science– Education

• Resulted in significant modification of programs and structure

NCAR will provide leadership in:

• Addressing complex, large-scale, important science problems in collaboration with university partners.

• Building and deploying enabling cyberinfrastructure and observing facilities.

• Further defining both the Community Model concept and process science.

• Building community, capacity, and diversity, and supporting technology transfer: public, K-12, students, postdocs, faculty, teams.

Challenges and Opportunities in 2001 PlanChallenges and Opportunities in 2001 Plan

• Partnerships and collaborations

• Support for early-career scientists, career enhancement, leadership programs, fellowships

• Community User Facilities, including a new airplane (HIAPER), Supercomputing, Climate and Weather Community Models (CCSM, WRF)

• Creation of budgetary and programmatic flexibility

• Programmatic innovation: Strategic initiatives, Opportunity funds

• Nested strategic plans, Reorganization

Resulting in Institutional Priorities

– Biogeosciences– Water cycle– Climate impacts

assessment– Coronal magnetism– Data assimilation– Community data

portals

– Geographic information systems

– Whole atmosphere modeling

– Education and outreach

– Visitor and University interactions and programs

Strategic initiatives defined, funded, and developed into important new areas in NCAR’s base program.

Our Progress

• The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) a leading climate system model

• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model is deployed as one of the national operational weather models

• The Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), developed and maintained by NCAR and its partners, is becoming a national standard for environmental modeling

• A first generation Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)

• First quantitative measurements of solar coronal vector magnetic fields

• Education and outreach elevated within NCAR

Our Progress

Scientific staff– Addition of 35 early career scientists– Establishment of Early Career Scientist

Assembly– NCAR Scientist Assembly (NSA) Advisor on

NCAR Executive Committee– Post tenure review of 1/5th of Scientists III

and Senior Scientists each year– Leadership and communications training– Formal mentoring programs

Our Progress

Our Leadership TeamNCAR Executive Committee and Lab Associate Directors

– Meets bi-weekly on the strategic management of NCAR• CISL – Al Kellie• EOL – Roger Wakimoto• ESSL – Annick Pouquet, Acting; Guy Brasseur, arrives in January• RAL – Brant Foote• SERE – Diana Josephson

Directors– Meets monthly, scientific/facilities updates

• ISSE Director, Linda Mearns • EOL Assistant Director, Karyn Sawyer• ASP Director, Maura Hagan• MMM Director, Greg Holland• CGD Director, Jim Hurrell• IMAGe Director, Doug Nychka• TIIMES Director, Rit Carbone• CCB Director, Mickey Glantz• ACD - Danny McKenna stepping down in January (Brian Ridley, interim)

172

209

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285

178

330

137

358

174

474

151

597

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

NCAR Peer-Reviewed Publications

NCAR Authors Joint with Outside Authors

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Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – January 2005

Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – January 2005

Data courtesy of ISI Essential Science Indicators™ – Powered by ISI Web of Knowledge™

RANKING INSTITUTION CITATIONS

1 NASA 85,538

2 NOAA 69,513

33 NCARNCAR 52,11752,117

4 US Geological Survey 46,003

5 University of Colorado 45,561

6 University of Washington 44,939

7 Max Planck Society 39,809

8 CALTECH 39,542

9 Columbia University 39,094

10University of California,

San Diego32,663

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129/1/05

Women Scientists at NCAR and on Faculties of Top 50 University Departments in Selected Disciplines

(Percentages at August 2005)

Career Level (% Women)

Scientist I & II (Asst Prof)

Scientist III (Assoc Prof)

Sr. Scientist (Full Prof)

Rank Discipline % Women Discipline % Women Discipline % Women

1 NCAR 31.88 Biology 24.87 Biology 14.79

2 Biology 30.20 NCAR 24.32 Astronomy 9.75

3 Civil Eng 22.26 Chemistry 20.50 NCAR 9.46

4 Chemistry 21.47 Chemical Eng 19.19 Computer Sci 8.33

5 Chemical Eng 21.38 Astronomy 15.69 Chemistry 7.62

6 Astronomy 20.18 Computer Sci 14.41 Physical Sci 6.36

7 Math & Stat 19.60 Physical Sci 14.18 Physics 5.24

8 Engineering 16.94 Math & Stat 13.19 Math & Sci 4.56

9 Physical Sci 16.13 Civil Eng 11.50 Chemical Eng 4.37

10 Mechanical Eng 15.65 Engineering 11.17 Electrical Eng 3.85

11 Physics 11.15 Electrical Eng 9.84 Engineering 3.68

12 Electrical Eng 10.86 Physics 9.41 Civil Eng 3.52

13 Computer Sci 10.82 Mechanical Eng 8.89 Mechanical Eng 3.17

Departments are ranked by NSF according to research expenditures in that discipline. Adapted from Science, Vol. 309, No. 5738, 19 August 2005 p. 1190. “More Women in Science” article by Jo Handelsman et al. According to AGU, the proportion of women earning Ph.D.s in the geosciences in 2003 was 33%.

Tenure-track Staff Moves between NCAR and Universities/Labs 2000 – 2005

9/1/05

From Universities to NCAR

Year Name From 2000 Tim Killeen U Michigan (Prof) 2003 Larry Winter Los Alamos Natl Lab (Sci) 2004 Fred Eisele Georgia Inst of Tech (Prin

Res Sci) 2004 Arlene Laing U So. Florida (Asst Prof) 2005 Daniel McKenna U Bonn, Germany

(Dir/Prof) 2005 Roger Wakimoto UCLA (Prof)

From NCAR to Universities

Year Name To 2000 Robert Wilby Kings College London

(Prof) 2001 Greg McFarquhar U Illinois (Asst Prof) 2001 Roger Pielke, Jr. CU/CIRES/CSTPR (Dir) 2002 Xiaoqing Wu Iowa St U (Asst Prof) 2003 Elliot Atlas U Miami (Prof) 2003 Paul Charbonneau U Montreal, CAN (Prof) 2003 Scott Doney Woods Hole (Sci) 2003 Ian Faloona UC Davis (Asst Prof) 2004 Steve Donnelly Ft Hays St U (Asst Prof) 2005 Todd Lane U Melbourne (Asst Prof) 2005 Barry Lefer U Houston (Asst Prof) 2005 Ramalingam

Saravanan Texas A&M U (Prof)

2005 Guifu Zhang U Oklahoma (Assoc Prof)

Postdocs 2000 Daniel Leroux U Laval, CAN 2001 Patrick Chuang UC Santa Cruz 2001 Katie Purvis Claremont College, CA 2003 Tian-You Yu U Oklahoma 2004 Kimberly Mace Arkansas St U 2004 Riwal Plougonven St Andrews U Scotland 2004 Wen-Wen Tung Purdue U 2004 Eugene Wahl Alfred U, NY

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Undergraduate Leadership Workshop – 4th Year• 21 students who

have completed Junior year in college

• One week at NCAR

Purpose: To inform undergraduates in the geosciences about opportunities for graduate study, research, and careers in the atmospheric and related sciences.

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NCAR Faculty Fellows

•2005 Inaugural Year– Weiging Han – University of Colorado, Boulder– Lian-Ping Wang – University of Delaware (came with two graduate students)– Arne Winguth – University of Wisconsin

Millions of Sessions per Year on Windows to the Universe

0

3

6

9

12

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005est.Year

Total Visits Spanish Visits

Average visit ~22 min long, ~8 pages~25% of traffic to Spanish website

State-of-the-art chemistry laboratoryAccess Grids

Office and meeting space

Our Progress – Investment in ScienceOur Progress – Investment in Science

One of 16 Blue Vista frames

Computing power that allows jobs to run twice as fast (NCAR now serves >15Teraflop peak to the community)

NSF’s HIAPER--built and outfitted to allow unprecedented field research

Our Progress – Investment in ScienceOur Progress – Investment in Science

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HIAPER - On time and under budget

QuickTime™ and aSorenson Video 3 decompressorare needed to see this picture.

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NSF HIAPER Aircraft Instrumentation Solicitation (HAIS) AwardsNSF HIAPER Aircraft Instrumentation Solicitation (HAIS) Awards

Principal Investigator (PI) Development Available

M. Zondlo (Southwest Sciences) Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) Hygrometer Mar. 2006

A. Heymsfield (UCAR/NCAR) Small Ice Detector (SID) Probes Aug. 2006

R. Shetter (UCAR/NCAR) HIAPER Atmospheric Radiation Package (HARP) Sept. 2006

S. Wofsy (Harvard) Quantum Cascade Laser Spectrometer for HIAPER Nov. 2006

E. Atlas (Univ. of Miami) HIAPER Advanced Whole Air Sampler (AWAS) Dec. 2006

T. Rawlins (PSI Inc.) Autonomous Airborne Ozone Photometer for HIAPER Jan. 2007

G. Huey (Georgia Tech.) Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometer (CIMS) Apr. 2007

T. Campos (UCAR/NCAR) Fast Ozone Instrument Nov. 2007

P. Lawson (SPEC Inc.) 2D-S (Stereo) and Cloud Particle Imager (CPI) Probe Dec. 2007

E. Eloranta (Univ. of Wisconsin) High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) Dec. 2007

J. Garrison (Purdue) GPS Multistatic and Occultation Instrument for HIAPER Jan. 2008

M.J. Mahoney (JPL/Caltech) Microwave Temperature Profiler (MTP) Sep. 2008

E. Apel (UCAR/NCAR) Trace Organic Gas Analyzer (TOGA) Feb. 2009

J. Jimenez (Univ. of Colorado) Time of Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (ToF-AMS) Feb. 2009

Recent Highlights• RAINEX – One of larges hurricane studies ever

undertaken. NSF sponsored aircraft investigation of interactions between hurricane outer rainbands and inner eye and their influence on storm’s intensity.

University of MiamiUniversity of WashingtonNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchNOAA NESDISNOAA Aircraft Operations CenterNOAA National Hurricane CenterNaval Research LaboratoryUCAR Joint Office for Science Support

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3).

Open Source

8-member ensembles

11,000 model years simulated

T85, 100 Terabytes

Meehl et al.,

GIS Climate Change Scenarios Data visualization and exploration in

ArcGlobe

100 year (2000-2099) change in mean July

surface temperature

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WRF4 km Moving-Grid Katrina Wind Forecast

Initialized 27 Aug 2005 00 Z

Wind Speed (m/s)

Cat 1: 33-42 Cat 2: 42-50 Cat 3: 50-59 Cat 4: 60-69 Cat 5: >69

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GIS Applications of Hurricane Katrina Landfall(collaboration with Los Alamos National Lab)

Electric Transmission Lines& Power Plants

Natural Gas Pipelines, ProcessingPlants & Compressors

“Seamless” Weather and Climate Experiment

CGD and MMMESSL

Schematic of Nesting ApproachSchematic of Nesting ApproachSchematic of Nesting Approach

Channel or Limited Area NRCM inside CAM

2-way Nested Regional Models

ESSL (CGD, MMM), CISL

MIRAGE - Megacities Impact on Regional and Global Environment- Mexico City 1-29 March 2006

• Goal: Characterize the extent, persistence, and potential impacts of the pollution plume on surrounding areas.

• Over 60 other participating institutions including 38 universities.

• Will provide significant opportunities for international collaboration and hands-on training of students.

Mexico City Pollution

Predicting the onset of solar cycle 24

21 22

Next cycle will start late in 2007 or early in 2008

(Dikpati et al., 2004, ESA-SP 559, p233)

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Consider . . . BASC Interim Report

The “Blue Book” (“UCAR”, 1959), which together mapped out the complementary roles of a large national center and the individual investigator university grants program, has served the atmospheric science community well and is the envy of many other scientific communities.

Report recommendation:

– Encourage new modes of partnership between the university and private sector research community and NCAR.

Planning for our FutureExternal environment: Funding constraints Unmet community needs Agencies, universities and society asking new things of us International leadership needed Competition for management of NCAR

Internal environment: Progress made on our goals & objectives Reorganization allows different capacity New leadership, new ideas Resource/infrastructure constraints

Time to revisit priorities

Updating our Strategic Plan:

• Update goals and priorities in light of progress and new opportunities

• Reconfirm our commitment to science

• Reconfirm our commitment to service

• Articulate our unique strengths

• Demonstrate our role as a community facilitator

• To use as:

– Basis for Laboratory implementation plans

– Roadmap for NCAR decisions

– Outreach tool

– Guidance for community collaborators

– Document for competition of management of NCAR

Our Approach: A Nested Hierarchy of Plans

LaboratoriesLaboratoriesDivisions/InstitutesDivisions/Institutes

Alignment

Alignment

BUDGETS

IMPLEMENTATION

PRIORITIES

STRATEGY/GOALS

VISION

MISSIONA

lignment

CREATING THE PLAN

Environmental Scan

SWOT Analysis

Leadership Direction

Staff Brainstorming

Community Input

Writing Team

Stakeholder Review

Final Product

NCAR STRATEGIC PLANNINGNCAR STRATEGIC PLANNING

NCAR 2006 Strategic Planning Process Timeline

MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT

NCAR Exec Comm Retreats NCAR Directors

NSA

Community

Writing Team

Kic

k o

ff a

t N

SA

& A

ll S

taff

To

wn

Me

etin

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Reviews – BOT, NSF,URC, Adv Council, Mgmt, Others

Develop Goals & Objectives

1st DraftInput/Feedback 2nd Draft to BOT BOT Feedback

Editing/ Revisions

Plan the Plan

NOV DEC JAN

Final Plan to NSF

6/13-14 NCAR Director’s Retreat

Solicited via personal contact, meetings, web

Mid- Sept- Draft Plan to BOT

2006 Strategic Plan to NSF

Publication

NCAR Strategic Planning RetreatJuly 25 – 29, 2005 - Boulder

• NCAR as a NSF FFRDC - Jarvis Moyers

• The Changing Landscape in Atmospheric Sciences and Possible New Roles for a National Center - Kelvin Droegemeier

• Perspectives on Future Directions for Science at NSF and DOE - Warren Washington

• NCAR and UCAR’s Role in Contributing to National and Global Priorities - Rick Anthes

• Community Perspective on the Role of the National Center - John Merrill

• Earth and Sun Systems - Jim Hansen

• Observational Facilities - Steve Rutledge

• Cyberinfrastructure - Sepi Yalda

• Science and Society: Technology, Observation, Decision Support Systems - Gene Tackle

• Education - Orlando Taylor

NCAR Advisory Committees – 194 Members Representing 134 organizationsInstitution Total Institution Total Institution Total

Army Research Lab 1 Institute of Transportion Engineers (ITE) 1 Purdue University 1 CSU 1 Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias 1 Red Rocks Community College 1 DHS (Dept. Homeland Security) 1 J. Sargeant Reynolds Community College 1 Rutgers University 1 DoD 1 Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory 1 San Jose State University 1 George Mason University 1 Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, U of CA 1 Scripps Institution of Oceanography 3 United Airlines 1 Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Lab 1 Space Explorers 1AFWA 2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 1 Stanford University 1Air Force Weather Agency 2 Max Planck Institute for Chemistry 1 State University of New York 1AMS 2 Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie 1 Texas A&M University 1AMS (former head) 1 Max-Planck-Institute and U of CA, San Diego 1 The Weather Channel 1Argonne National Laboratory 2 Millersville University 2 The Woodrow Wilson National 1Army Research Laboratory 1 Montana State University 2 U.S. House of Representatives 1Atmospheric Research 1 NASA 1 Universities Space Research Association 1Biosphere 2 Center 1 NASA Langley Research Center 1 University of Alaska, Fairbanks 1BR Cohen and Associates 1 NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center 2 University of Arizona 3British Petroleum 1 NASA/GSFC 1 University of California 1Buffalo State College 1 Natural Resources Defense Council 1 University of California, Berkeley 3Bureau of Rural Sciences 1 Naval Postgraduate School 1 University of California, Irvine 4California Institute of Technology 1 Naval Research Laboratory 3 University of California, Los Angeles 1California State University, Monterey Bay 1 NAVY 1 University of California, Santa Barbara 1Carleton College 1 NAVY/FNMOC 1 University of Cambridge 1Center for Severe Weather Research 1 Navy/NRL 1 University of Chicago 1City University of New York 1 NCEP 1 University of Colorado 4Clark University 1 NERC Centres for Atmos Sci (and U of Reading) 1 University of Colorado/CIRES 1College of William and Mary 1 NESTA 1 University of Colorado/LASP 1Colorado College 1 New Mexico Institute of Mining & Technology 1 University of Hawaii 1Colorado Research Associates 1 NOAA 11 University of Illinois 1Colorado State University 7 NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory 1 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 1Cornell University 1 NOAA FSL 1 University of Maryland 5DEFRA 1 NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory 1 University of Miami 2DoC/NOAA/NWS 1 NOAA NSSL 1 University of Michigan 2Duke University 1 NOAA/ERL 1 University of Minnesota 1FAA 1 NOAA/GFDL 1 University of Montana 1Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Ocean.Center 1 NOAA/NCEP 2 University of Montreal 1Foothill College 1 NOAA/OAR 1 University of North Carolina 1FSL 1 NOAA/Space Environment Center 1 University of Northern Colorado 1George Mason University 1 NSF 3 University of Northern Iowa 1George Washington University 1 NSO/Sacramento Peak 1 University of Oklahoma 3Harvard Graduate School of Education 1 Ohio State University 1 University of Washington 4Harvard University 4 Oxford University 1 University of Wisconsin, Madison 3ICAT Managers 1 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 1 University of Wyoming 2IGES/COLA 1 PAOS/University of Colorado 1 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute 1Institut für Chemie und Dynamik der Geosphäre 1 Patton Boggs LLP 1 Xerox Palo Alto Research Center 1Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space 1 Pennsylvania State University 2 Yale University 3Institute of Global Environment and Society 1 Princeton University 1 Grand Total 194

Effective August 2005 with changes expected

Community & Staff Participation

Updating the NCAR Strategic PlanHigh Level Outline

1.0 Executive Summary

2.0 Introduction

3.0 Vision

4.0 The NCAR-University Partnership

5.0 Context of Our Work

6.0. Strategic Goals and Priorities

7.0 Program Planning and Implementation

8.0 Organization and Structure

9.0 Commitment to Organizational Excellence and Innovation

10.0 Appendices

Strategic Goals Overarching Goals

Science Investigate, predict and explain the Earth-Sun system

Transferring Knowledge and Technology

Develop new societal benefits from atmospheric and related sciences

Workforce, Education and Outreach

Transform the workforce, improve scientific education & increase scientific understanding

Cyber-infrastructure

Develop and provide a robust, accessible and well integrated set of information services and tools to support research, analysis and education in the atmospheric and related sciences

Observing Systems

Develop, operate and maintain a new suite of ground and airborne observational facilities for the atmospheric and related sciences community

2006 Strategic Plan - Draft

Some Content of the new NCAR Strategic Plan

Big Issues and Opportunities (not exhaustive)

• Supercomputing: next generation capabilities

• Regional-scale analysis of climate and weather

• HIAPER Phase 2 and Thorpex

• An NCAR Diversity Initiative

• Solar and Space Weather facility-class observations

• Remote sensing and weather/climate services

• New collaborations with hydrology community

Summary of Next Steps

• BOT review and input

• Final input from staff and community

• NCAR Executive Committee approval

• Final BOT approval

• 2006 Strategic Plan to NSF in January

• Linking of NCAR, Laboratory and Division/Institute

plans with NSF, UCAR and UOP

Thank you