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Nearshore Wave Prediction System
1NOAA Industry Day 2018, Oct 4, Annapolis, MD
André van der Westhuysen1,2
1NOAA / National Weather ServiceNational Centers for Environmental Prediction
2I.M Systems Group, Rockville, MD
Climate/WeatherLinkage
Forecast Uncertainty
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Intro: Seamless Suite of Weather Forecast Products
Data types and access
• High-resolution (5 km – 200 m) fields of:• Official forecast wind field • Significant wave height• Mean wave direction• Mean wave period• Global model current fields
• Fields of individual wave systems• Future: Rip Current and Erosion/Overwash hazards• Example viewer: NWPS validation viewer• Data access:
ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/nwps/prod/
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Ocean waves and Coastal downscaling
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Coastal application
• Desired resolution: 1.8 km - 200 m• Hourly output, out to 6 days• Forecaster consensus wind forcing
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/nwps/para/viewer.shtml
Nearshore Wave Prediction SystemSWAN-based operational coastal wave model
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Example NWPS output
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Hawaii
Oahu, HI
Kotzebue Sound,
AK
Juneau, AK
Columbia River
Mouth, OR
On-demand run triggering
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Blue: Southern and Eastern Regions
Red: Western, Pacific and Alaska Regions Total runs: ~90/day
Avg. run times = 30-150 min
Example output: Baltimore/WashingtonForecast wind field, generated wave field
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/nwps/
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Validation: Baltimore/WashingtonPatapsco, MD
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Wave-current interactionExample: Miami, FL
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/nwps/
Surface currents from NOAA’s global circulation model RTOFS
Coastal wave response
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Inclusion of tide and surge water levelsHurricane Irma (2017/09/11)
Hurricane wind field
Tide + wind surge(ESTOFS model)
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Dealing with complexity: Wave systemsML clustering, e.g. Monterey, CA (2 systems)
Hs, sys1
Hs, sys2
Tp, sys1
Tp, sys2
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Hs, sys1
Hs, sys2
Hs, sys3
Hs, sys4
Hs, sys5
Tp, sys1
Tp, sys2
Tp, sys3
Tp, sys4
Tp, sys5
Dealing with complexity: Wave systemsML clustering, e.g. Los Angeles, CA (5 systems)
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Future: Erosion/overwash guidanceHurricane Irma (2017/09/11)
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Future: Rip Current guidanceExample Cape Cod/Boston, MA
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http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/nwps/para/viewer.shtml
1. Nearshore Wave Prediction System provides on-demand, high-resolution wave model output. Spatial resolution: 2 km – 200 m. Temporal resolution: Hourly, out to 6 days.
2. Coverage for all of Continental US, Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
3. Wave model takes into account official forecast winds, offshore surface currents, tide & surge water levels.
4. Output includes basic wave parameters, wave systems, and in future rip current and erosion/overwash guidance.
5. Model visualizations at (non-operational): polar.ncep.noaa.gov/nwps/viewer.shtml
6. Contact: [email protected].
Summary
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