noaa/climate prediction center outlooks for spring-summer, 2010
DESCRIPTION
NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010. Ed O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center. Weatherbug Energy Conference Houston, Texas, April 15, 2010. Issues in the Spring-Summer Outlook. Temperature tools cooler in recent years, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
NOAA/Climate Prediction Center Outlooks for Spring-Summer, 2010
Ed O’Lenic
Chief, Operations Branch
NOAA-NWS-Climate Prediction Center
Weatherbug Energy ConferenceHouston, Texas, April 15, 2010
Issues in the Spring-Summer Outlook
• Temperature tools cooler in recent years,
• Trend toward warm in decline since late 2007,
• El Nino likely to end around June,
• “Spring Barrier” through mid-May = uncertainty,
• Wet soils = cold early summer temperatures,
• On-going cold decadal (PDO) event (weak)
• Transition to Neutral or La Nina in summer?
MJJ Outlooks issued March 18 (left) and April 15 (right)
JJA Outlooks issued March 18 (left) and April 15 (right)
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 14 April 2010
The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010, with a return to ENSO-neutral by summer 2010.
Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)
B N A YR26 28 46 1995
36 34 30 1996
27 32 41 1997
08 17 75 1998
13 24 63 1999
22 20 58 2000
15 32 53 2001
19 36 46 2002
15 38 47 2003
20 33 47 2004
07 34 59 2005
10 28 62 2006
10 34 56 2007
31 41 27 2008
27 40 33 2009
These 3 years were not very biased
Suddenly warm. ENSO-related?
Normals changed. Still warm-biased
Warming seems to accelerate.
Surprise cool-off, not really that cold
Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)
B N A YR26 28 46 1995
36 34 30 1996
27 32 41 1997
08 17 75 1998
13 24 63 1999
22 20 58 2000
15 32 53 2001
19 36 46 2002
15 38 47 2003
20 33 47 2004
07 34 59 2005
10 28 62 2006
10 34 56 2007
31 41 27 2008
27 40 33 2009
These 3 years were not very biased
Suddenly warm. ENSO-related?
Normals changed. Still warm-biased
Warming seems to accelerate.
Surprise cool-off, not really that cold
Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)
B N A YR26 28 46 1995
36 34 30 1996
27 32 41 1997
08 17 75 1998
13 24 63 1999
22 20 58 2000
15 32 53 2001
19 36 46 2002
15 38 47 2003
20 33 47 2004
07 34 59 2005
10 28 62 2006
10 34 56 2007
31 41 27 2008
27 40 33 2009
These 3 years were not very biased
Suddenly warm. ENSO-related?
Normals changed. Still warm-biased
Warming seems to accelerate.
Surprise cool-off, not really that cold
Distribution of OBSERVED temperature terciles in the last 14 years (courtesy H. van den Dool)
B N A YR26 28 46 1995
36 34 30 1996
27 32 41 1997
08 17 75 1998
13 24 63 1999
22 20 58 2000
15 32 53 2001
19 36 46 2002
15 38 47 2003
20 33 47 2004
07 34 59 2005
10 28 62 2006
10 34 56 2007
31 41 27 2008
27 40 33 2009
These 3 years were a little biased
Suddenly warm. ENSO-related?
Normals changed. Still warm-biased
Warming seems to accelerate.
Unexpected cool-off, not all that cold
Summary
• El Nino likely to end in June
• Wet soil, cold trends lead to cooler forecasts
• PDO, possible weak La Nina wild cards
• CPC forecast skill has gone up (CON)
FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts)
Performance of Official (top) and Consolidation (bottom) ½ - month-lead 3-Month Precipitation Forecasts, 1995-2004. Solid/dashed contours show much better/worse (%) the forecast is compared to chance. Colors show the % of the time non-EC is forecast. % coverage improvement by CON is given at bottom. Mean score, %, is at lower right.
Official (OFF) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Precipitation Outlook, 1995-2004
Consolidation (CON) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Precipitation Outlook, 1995-2004
FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts)
MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts)FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts)
FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts) NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts)+20%+8% +18% +16%
0.5 Month Lead 3-Mo Precipitation Outlooks, 1995-2004: CON Raises U.S. Annual Mean sn from 9 to 12,
and Increases Skill, non-EC % in All Seasons, Except Winter.
2
13
4
17
4
9
19
12
FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts)
Official (OFF) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Temperature Outlook, 1995-2004
Consolidation (CON) .5 mo-lead 3-Month Temperature Outlook, 1995-2004
NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts)
0.5 Month Lead 3-Mo Temperature Outlooks, 1995-2004: CON Raises U.S. Annual Mean sn from 18 to 24,
and Increases Skill, non-EC % in All Seasons, Except Winter.
FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts) ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts)
FMA, MAM, AMJ (30 fcsts) MJJ, JJA, JAS (30 fcsts)+11% +31% +40% +55%
NDJ, DJF, JFM (30 fcsts)ASO, SON, OND (30 fcsts)
Performance of Official (top) and Consolidation (bottom) ½ - month-lead 3-Month Temperature Forecasts, 1995-2004. Solid/dashed contours show much better/worse (%) the forecast is compared to chance. Colors show the % of the time non-EC is forecast. % coverage improvement by CON is given at bottom. Mean score, %, is at lower right.
37
33
16
23
23
33
22
25
31
27
sd = 38 sd = 34
11
12
CONSOLIDATION IMPLEMENTED
sn
sa
sa
sn
sn-sa
n/T
n/T
Fra
cti
on
x 1
00
CONUS Spatial Average, 48-Month Running Mean of area covered ,sn, sa, sn-sa
1995-2005 compared with post-2005, Temperature
