Space Weather Data and Observations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

Terrance G Onsager and Rodney ViereckNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center

Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

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Challenge: Predicting the Impacts of the Sun’s Activity

Space Weather Information Needs

Information timeliness:• Long lead-time forecasts (1 to > 3 days)• Short-term warnings (notice of imminent storm)• Alerts and Specifications (current conditions)

Space Weather Category:• X-ray flares• Solar energetic particle events• Radiation belt electron enhancements• Geomagnetic storms• Ionospheric disturbances• Neutral density variations

Long-Term Forecast (1- >3 days)

Short-Term Forecasts and Warnings (<1 day)

Nowcasts and Alerts

Flare Products

Energetic Particle

Products

Geomag Activity

Products

Iono and Atmo

Products

Status of Current Space Weather Products

M-flare and X-flare Probabilities

M-flare and X-flare Probabilities

X-ray Flux – Global and Regional

Proton and Electron Radiation

Probabilities

Proton and Electron Radiation – Global

and Regional

Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities

Geomagnetic Storm Probabilities –

Global and Regional

Geomagnetic Activity – Global and

Regional

Ionospheric and Atmospheric Disturbance Probabilities

Disturbance Probabilities –

Global and Regional

Ionospheric and Atmospheric

Disturbances – Global and Regional

Proton and Electron Radiation

Probabilities

L1

NASA ACE

ESA SOHO

Continuous data reception from the ACE satellite is

necessary for real-time alerts of solar storms

● German Aerospace Center● European Space Agency

● National Institute of Information and Communication Technology, Japan

● Radio Research Agency, Korea

● NOAA● NASA● U.S. Air Force

•DSCOVR (NOAA/NASA/DOD)

– Solar wind composition, speed, and direction

– Magnetic field strength and direction

Satellite Observations for Future Space Weather Forecasting

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NOAA POES

NOAA GOES

NASA ACE

ESA/NASA SOHO

L1•ACE (NASA)

–Solar wind speed, density, temperature and energetic particles–Vector Magnetic field

•SOHO (ESA/NASA)–Solar EUV Images–Solar Corona (CMEs)

•GOES (NOAA)–Energetic Particles–Magnetic Field–Solar X-ray Flux–Solar EUV Flux–Solar X-Ray Images

•POES (NOAA)–High Energy Particles–Total Energy Deposition–Solar UV Flux

•Ground Sites–Magnetometers–Riometers and Neutron monitors–Telescopes and Magnetographs–Ionosondes–GNSS

NASA STEREO(Ahead)

NASA STEREO(Behind)

•STEREO (NASA)–Solar Corona–Solar EUV Images–Solar wind –Vector Magnetic field

Challenge: Coordinating Our Worldwide Data Resource

Space-based and ground-based observations of the Sun-Earth environment are being made around

the globe

•COSMIC II (Taiwan/NOAA)

– Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles

– Ionospheric Scintillation

• L1 Measurements– Solar wind

• Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles

– Vector Magnetic Field

• The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting– Integral part of the daily forecast process

– Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic storms

– Used to drive and verify numerous models

• L1 Measurements– Solar wind

• Density, speed, temperature, energetic particles

– Vector Magnetic Field

• The most important set of observations for space weather forecasting– Integral part of the daily forecast process

– Provides critical 30-45 minute lead time for geomagnetic storms

– Used to drive and verify numerous models

NOAA’s FY 2011 Budget

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Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) Solar Wind Mission

• The DSCOVR spacecraft will be refurbished and readied for launch in December 2013

• Satellite and sensors will be transferred to NOAA• Refurbishment of satellite and Plas-Mag sensor will be

performed at NASA/GSFC under reimbursement by NOAA

• USAF plans to begin acquiring a launch vehicle in 2012• All data will be downlinked to the Real Time Solar

Wind Network (RTSWnet)• DSCOVR Earth science sensors are in the process of

being refurbished• A commercial partner will be solicited for the mission

to help evaluate the potential of commercial service for a follow-on mission

Compact Coronagraph (CCOR)

• NOAA and the Naval Research Laboratory are currently collaborating on a Phase A study for a demonstration compact coronagraph

• A reimbursable project for sensor development will begin at NRL in FY11• CCOR is a reduced mass, volume, and cost coronagraph design

– 6 kg telescope, 17 kg for sensor– Optical train is 1/3 the length of traditional coronagraph designs

• CCOR will fly on DSCOVR if schedule permits– CCOR has been submitted to the DoD Space Test Program (STP) for flight as a back-up

strategy if necessitated by schedule

COSMIC Follow On (COSMIC 2)

• COSMIC begins to degrade in 2011 (end of life)• Significant data reduction expected by 2014-2015 due to loss of satellites• President’s budget supports initial launch of COSMIC 2 in 2014• Proposed partnership with Taiwan –

– Taiwan to provide: 12 spacecraft and integration of payloads onto spacecraft, ground system command & control

– NOAA to provide: 12 payloads (receivers), 2 launches, ground system data processing

– System will provide 8000+ worldwide atmospheric and 10-12,000 ionospheric soundings per day (all weather, uniform coverage over oceans and land)

• Commercial data purchase for enhancement/gap coverage under consideration

Observed TEC Rays in 12-hour period (COSMIC)

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GOES Update: Successful Launch of GOES O and P

EARTH’S MAGNETOSPHERE

GOES 11/12/13/14/15 IN GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT

MOON

ABOUT 1 % OF THE DISTANCE FROM THE EARTH TO THE SUN, ACE IS OUR SPACE WEATHER SENTINEL.

EARTH

GOES 15 2010 90W XRS/SXI (Storage) GOES 14 2009 106W StorageGOES 13 2006 75W MAG/EPSGOES 12 2001 60W South AmericaGOES 11 2000 135W Secondary Ops

GOES-R

MPS-low: electrons/ions 30eV-30 keV 15 bands, 12 look directions

MPS-hi:electrons 55 keV-4MeV 10 bands, 5 look directionsProtons 80keV-3.2 MeV 9 bands ,5 look directions

SGPSProtons 1-500 MeV, 10 channels, 2 directions

EHIS10-200 MeV/nucleon, 4 mass groups, 1 look direction

MagnetometerStatus

Just finished instrument CDRLaunch expected in 2015Developing level 2 algorithms

Integral fluxDensity and Temperature momentsEvent detectionMagnetopause Crossings

New GEO particle product

SEAESRTImplements O’Brien et al. 2009 anomaly

hazard quotientsSurface Charging

Based on KpInternal Charging

Based on GOES >2 MeV electron fluxSingle Event Upsets

Based on GOES >30 MeV proton fluxTotal Dose

Based on GOES >5 MeV proton fluxPublicly available 2010

Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI)

SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data:•comparable resolution•slower cadence•incomplete spectral coverage

SOHO EIT images currently used as a proxy for SUVI data:•comparable resolution•slower cadence•incomplete spectral coverage

SDO AIA provides improved proxy data: •16X as many pixels as SUVI•Higher cadence•image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly

SDO AIA provides improved proxy data: •16X as many pixels as SUVI•Higher cadence•image in 8 EUV bands, 5 of which match SUVI exactly

Completely Different than GOES NOP: • GOES NOP SXI observes in x-rays (0.6-6 nm) • SUVI will observe in the Extreme Ultra-Violet (EUV) (10-30 nm)

 Narrow band EUV imaging: Permits better discrimination between features of different temperatures• 30.4 nm band adds capability to detect filaments and their eruptions• 6 wavelengths (9.4, 13.1, 17.1, 19.5, 28.4, and 30.4 nm) 2 minute refresh for full dynamic range

SUVI will provide• Flare location information (Forecasting event arrival time and geo-effectiveness)• Active region complexity (Flare forecasting)• Coronal hole specification (High speed solar wind forecasting)

SDO AIA 30.4 nm

GOES R EUVS Improvements

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GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands•No spectral information•Difficult to interpret•Impossible to build

GOES NOP observed 3 (or 5) broad spectral bands•No spectral information•Difficult to interpret•Impossible to build

EUVS-A Channel

EUVS-B Channel

EUVS-C Channel

25.6 nm28.4 nm30.4 nm

117.5 nm121.6 nm133.5 nm140.5 nm

275 - 285 nm278.5 nm

GOES R EUVS will take a different approach•Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers•Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere•Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere.

GOES R EUVS will take a different approach•Observe three spectral regions with three small spectrometers•Measure the intensity of critical solar lines from various parts of the solar atmosphere•Model the rest of the solar spectrum scaling each spectral line to the ones observed from the same region of the solar atmosphere.

Three GOES R EUVS Spectrometers

GOES 14 Broad Bands

Continuing LEO Space Weather Programs

• Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS): – SEMS will be continued through the end of the

POES, DMSP, and Metop C– Solar Irradiance measurements are planned,

energetic particle measurements are not planned

• Advanced Forecasting for Ensuring Communications Through Space (AFFECTS)

• Participants: Germany, Belgium, Ukraine, Norway, United States• Coordinator: Dr. Volker Bothmer, Georg-August-Universität, Germany

Develop a forecasting and early-warning system to mitigate ionospheric effects on navigation and communication systems

- Coordinated analysis of space-based and ground-based measurements

- Development of predictive models of solar and ionospheric disturbances

- Validation of forecast system

• Coordination Action for the Integration of Solar System Infrastructures and Science (CASSIS)

• Participants: United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, France, United States• Coordinator: Dr. Robert Bentley, University College London

Improve the interoperability of data and metadata to enhance the dissemination and utility of data across interdisciplinary boundaries.

Seventh Framework Cooperation

• Incoherent Scatter Radar provide key data for scientific understanding and to develop and drive data-assimilation models of the Earth-Space system

• Modern ISR also allow continuous, real-time data acquisition that can drive operational models to protect our economic and security infrastructures

• Recommendation is to broaden the ISR user community to foster interdisciplinary science across the full Earth-Space environment and explore contribution to operational space weather applications

Transatlantic EU-U.S. Cooperation in the Field of Research Infrastructures

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RISR-N,S 2011

Space Weather in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHERA REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OFA WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONALCOORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPAREDFOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL

April 2008

Motivation for WMO:

• Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System and the WMO Information System

• Space Weather affects important economic activities (aviation, satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.)

• Synergy is possible with current WMO meteorological services and users, such as sharing observing platforms and issuing multi-hazard warnings

• Several WMO Members have Space Weather with Hydro-Met Agency

• Effective partnership with International Space Environment Service

Inter-Programme Coordination Team for Space Weather

Membership:- Belgium- Brazil- Canada- China (Co-chair)- Colombia- European Space Agency- Ethiopia- Finland- Japan- International Civil Aviation Organization- Int’l Space Environment Service- International Telecommunication Union- UN Office of Outer Space Affairs- Russian Federation- United Kingdom- United States (Co-chair)

WMO Programmes:- Aeronautical Meteorology Programme- Space Programme

Terms of Reference:

- Standardization and enhancement of Space Weather data exchange and delivery through the WMO Information System (WIS)

- Harmonized definition of end-products and services – including quality assurance and emergency warning procedures

- Integration of Space Weather observations, through review of space- and surface-based requirements, harmonization of sensor specifications, monitoring observing plans

- Encouraging research and operations dialog

Officially established: 3 May 2010

• Space weather research and forecasting require coordinated observations from around the globe

• ACE follow-on (DSCOVR) is moving forward. Coronagraph is uncertain on DSCOVR. Globally distributed antennas, with backups, are required.

• Upgraded geosynchronous measurements will soon be available, some LEO capabilities will be lost, next-generation radio-occultation is anticipated.

• International partnerships are increasingly important, and progress is being made.

Summary