NOAA Space Environment CenterNOAA Space Environment CenterSpace Weather ActivitiesSpace Weather Activities

Bill MurtaghNOAA Space Environment Center

Boulder, Colorado

European Space Weather WeekESTECNovember 18, 2005

OverviewOverview

• SEC in the National Weather Service

• Primary SEC Objectives• Research/models to Operations• Operational Solar Wind Monitor• Operational Coronagraph

• Aviation Support

• NCEPs include: » National Hurricane Center» Severe Storm Center» Space Environment Center» …more

• SEC joined NOAA’s NWS on 2005 January 9. NWS responsibility now extends from “Sea to Sun.”– There are NWS processes which affect SEC and the issuance of new

products

• American Meteorological Society (AMS) has welcomed space weather into its fold– Third Special Symposium on Space Weather in Jan 2006

SEC Joins National Weather Service (NWS) as one of the official National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

Space Weather is now included in the daily and weekly NWS reports to NOAA and DOC leadership

Space Weather Update NOAA sunspot group 808 stayed very active this week and produced several significant solar flares (up to R3 on the NOAA Scale). The strong (S3) radiation storm that started Sep 8 ended on Sep 11. Moderate to strong (up to G3) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed from Sep 12-15. During this period, aurora was visible as far south as Colorado and Lajes Field, Azores, Portugal.

09 Sep 2005: NWS Director, D.L. Johnson, briefed space weather conditions to NOAA Chief of Staff (Scott Rayder), who in turn briefed the General Counsel (Stan Sokul) of the Office of Science and Technology Policy in the White House.

A few of the agencies and industries that rely on space

weather services today:

• U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dep. of Transportation ( GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations

DOENuclear Reg Comm

SchlumbergerNY/PJM Grid

BallLoral

NESDIS/SOCCDigital Globe

BoeingLockheedAerospaceEchostar

NASASpace Command

ISS AstronautsFAA

AmericanUnited Airlines

NorthwestContinental

Growth of Space WeatherGrowth of Space WeatherCustomersCustomers

NOAA SpaceEnvironmentCenter

Sunspot CyclesSunspot Cycles

Commercial Space Transportation

Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology

Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation

Transition research understandings and models to operations

There is new emphasis in NOAA on research-to-operations transitions; joining NWS has allowed us to ask for additional manpower to implement model transitions.

Establish an operational solar wind monitoring program

SEC has requested again that NOAA step up to this requirement; the decision is not yet made; however, steps in the right direction are in motion.

Fly a space-based coronagraph dedicated to operations

SEC has requested again that NOAA step up to this requirement; as

yet, the decision is not positive, but again, efforts are in motion.

Principal SEC Goals through 2012Principal SEC Goals through 2012

The need - Customers operating on continental and sub-continental scales are demanding regional specification and forecasts of space weather.

NOAA’s Space Weather Program FY2008NOAA’s Space Weather Program FY2008 Program Baseline AssessmentProgram Baseline Assessment

The Response - NASA, NSF, and DOD have expended tens of millions of dollars to develop models of the local and regional reaction of the space environment to forcing inputs from the Sun; many of these models are now mature and ready for transition to operations.

The Problem - NOAA’s Space Environment Center (SEC) has been unable to fund transitions of these critical models. Lack of resources constrains NOAA’s ability to deliver what customers want.

Space Weather Program constraint #1

– Regional space weather forecasts and the transition of models and related research into operations

Status of NOAA’s efforts to get an Status of NOAA’s efforts to get an operational solar wind monitoroperational solar wind monitor

• NOAA management have agreed that we need a solar wind monitor.

• Broad Area Announcement (BAA) issued in July 2005 for proposals.

- Three of these proposals were selected in September 2005 and will be funded for a more detailed feasibility study ($100 – 300k).

• NOAA hope to have reliable estimates in 3-6 months. Commercial solution is an option. Funding is still an issue!!!

So how do we convince the decision makers?

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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Models - in development; being evaluated for operations; in use internationallyModels used in SEC Operations

Total (estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Total (estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind DataDriven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data

• Solar wind driven models and operational products are expected to grow considerably in the next decade.

• ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six

NOTE: The plot above does not include many of the research efforts underway that rely on solar wind data

Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer SummaryCustomer Summary

Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month.» ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176

products» more than 250,000 unique customers per month» customers from 150 countries

NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite.

• A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers

• SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month.

All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!

• The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month

• Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)

Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued during Solar Cycle 23

Impact AreaGeomagnetic and Radiation Storm

Predictions

Customer (examples) Action (examples) Cost (examples)

Spacecraft

(Individual systems to complete spacecraft failure; comm and radiation effects)

Lockheed Martin, Orbital, Aerospace Corp, Boeing, Digital Globe, Sciences Corp, Space Systems Loral, NASA, NOAA, DoD

- Postpone launch

- In orbit - Reboot systems; Turn off/safe instruments and/or spacecraft

Loss of s/c can exceed

$500M

Commercial loss exceeds $1B

Worst case storm - $100B

Electric Power

(Equipment damage to electrical grid failure and blackout conditions)

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory, Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Allegheny Power, Central Maine, American Transmission Company

Many mitigating actions:- adjust/reduce system load - disconnect components, - postpone maintenance.

-Estimated loss per year ~$400M from unexpected geomagnetic storms

- $3-6B loss in GDP (blackout)

Airlines (Communications)

(Loss of flight HF radio communications)

United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, FedEx, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet, etc.

Divert polar flights, change flight plans

Change altitude

Cost ~ $100k per diverted flight

$10-50k for re-routes

Airlines (Radiation)

(Radiation dose on crew and passengers)

United, Continental, Northwest, American, Lufthansa, Qantas Virgin, British Airways, FedEx, Air New Zealand, ExecuJet etc.

Divert polar flights, change flight plans

Change altitude (even at mid-latitudes)

- Cost ~$100k per diverted

flight

- Health risks

Surveying & Navigation

(Use of magnetic field or GPS could be impacted)

FAA-WAAS, New York and Texas Dept. of Transportation, BP Alaska, Schlumberger, GlobalSantaFe, etc.

Postpone activities; Redo survey; Use alternate or backup navigation tools

BP Alaska cost $10,000 per day, other surveys have similar costs

Vendor Industry

(Servicing the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), and National Grid)

Northwest Research Assoc., INC

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

Metatech Corp.

Data used in real time to alert electric power companies of significant geomagnetic storms

Out of business without solar wind data!

Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Solar Wind – Critical Input in NOAA’s Space Weather ProductsWeather Products

UPOS - University Partnering for Operational Support Solar Proton Penetration (into high-lat Ionosphere) ModelField Alligned CurrentsRadiation Belt Environment Geomagnetic Storm Forecast (Dst)Geomagnetic Storm Forecast (Kp) Real-time Interplanetary Shock Prediiction (RISP) SystemPrediction of Energetic Electron Flux at Geosync OrbitReal-time Upstream Monitoring System (RUMS) Active Region Helicity InjectionHakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) Solar Wind Model

Geomagnetic Storm Prediction Models

DMI – Elman recurrent neural networkBerkeley – Burton ModelIRF-Lund – Lund neural networkLASP Dst predictionGSFC/SWRI Dst Model Predict

Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme

Real-time UAF Eulerian Parallel Polar Ionosphere ModelGlobal Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM)

ISTP Magnetopause and Bowshock Dynamic Modeling

IPS – Magnetopause ModelESA – Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis Prediction System (SAAPS)DMI – Geomagnetic Activity Forecast (GAFS)BGS – Solar Wind Monitoring and Induction Modeling for GIC Real-time Prediction of Auroral Electrojet Indices (GSFC)Prediction of high-lat geomag from ACE RTSW (GSFC – lep694.gsfc.nasa.gov - 1999Radiation Belt Electrons at Geosynchronous Orbit (LASP)

LMSAL/VSL Solar Wind Model (validation)Lindsey CME Propagation ModelGopal CME Propagation Model

Costello Kp ModelWeimer ModelREFM – Relativistic Electron Forecast ModelSTOA – Shock Time of Arrival ModelISPM – Interplanetary Shock Propagation ModelEIE – Energetic Ion Enhancement

CISM – Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling 1 to 7-day prediction of the daily Ap1-day prediction relativistic electron flux in the 2-9 MeV Wang Sheeley Arge Ambient Solar Wind FMGlobal Solar Wind Forecast ModelGlobal Magnetospheric FMGeospace FM

rtAMIE – Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric ElectrodynamicsLiMIE – Linear Modeling of Ionospheric ElectrodynamicsEngineers Model for Solar Energetic particles in InterplanetarySpace – (Barcelona- Lario)

Metaech SpaceCast/Powercast geomag fcst SystemSTD Prediction Service (Oler)

Magnetic Specification and Forecast Model (USAF)

A Sample of Models and Products driven or validated by Solar Wind Data

POES data UsagePOES data Usage

• 5 million file transfers per month (web only)• 10,000 unique users daily

• 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data• Heavy ftp usage too!

Again, these are current numbers (as we approach solar minimum)

GOES data UsageGOES data Usage

Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only)

– 140,000 unique users monthly

NOAA GOES and POES UsageNOAA GOES and POES Usage

1996 20042000 2008 2012 2016

Extended Mission

Nominal Mission

SOHO/LASCO

NASA STEREO

No CMEDetection Capability

PPBES - It is proposed to fly a coronal mass ejection imager (CMEI) on GOES-R series.

Coronagraph imagery is expected from NASA’s SOHO and STEREO satellites until about 2011. Then, CME images will cease, as NASA has no plans to fly a replacement coronagraph.

This need has been accepted as valid by the GOES-R project, as reflected in the GOES Mission Requirements Document (MRD) and Program Requirements Document (PRD).

However, the CMEI has been deemed unaffordable by the GOES-R project. It is not manifested for flight on GOES-R, although it is listed as a high priority Pre Planned Product Improvement (P3I) if additional money becomes available.

Status of NOAA’s efforts to get an Status of NOAA’s efforts to get an operational coronagraphoperational coronagraph

Aviation SupportAviation Support

“Its been nasty …. The S3 (NOAA ScaleNOAA Scale) two days ago resulted in less optimum polar routings to Polar 4 rather than Polar 3, and lower flight levels. All this increases fuel requirements and reduced revenue payload. In addition, because of the effect on HF comms, we have abandoned polar today altogether. We must stop our Chicago to Hong Kong in Anchorage because no other routes provide non-stop capability.”

G. Cameron, Dispatcher, United Air Lines

The January 20, 2005 Radiation Storm, once again, caused impacts:

United Airlines identified space weather as the #1 concern during polar operations

The New York Comm Center reported:

07Sep 1800Z:   Solar activity severely impacted all HFcomms.  Higher frequencies utilized with little effect.  24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC messages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Z and 1939Z. Severe operational impact. 

                              The San Francisco/SFO Comm Center reported:

07Sep 1755Z:  SFO sends ARINC Solar Flare Activity Advisory of moderate to severe impact to HF comms to airline customers.   SFO experiencing extreme HF "white-out“ conditions virtually wiping out all Pacific HF. 

11Sep   0050Z: Tokyo and Port Moresby Radio having difficulties, SFO will assist as needed.                                  13Sep   1930Z:    Solar activity severely disrupting HF comms in all Pacific areas throughout daylight hours.  Severe communication impact and severe operational/service impact.         

Major airlines rerouted flights away from the poles because of current and anticipated space weather conditions. This occurred several times during the September activity. These costly reroutes (~$100k) require an additional fuel stop and new crew.

The September 2005 space weather also caused considerable impacts:

• At the request of the commercial aviation community, SEC has hosted three workshops

– April 2002– February 2004– April 2005

• The outcomes have been: – a better educated user community– SEC’s better understanding of the plans and needs of

the commercial aviation community – understanding of the plans for commercial vendors of

services to the airlines– a path for SEC to provide appropriate products and services

Aviation SupportAviation Support

GROWTH ON POLAR ROUTESGROWTH ON POLAR ROUTES

The advent of new long range aircraft such as the A340-500/600, B777-300ER and B777-200LR

China’s aviation industry is developing at an explosive pace: On June 18, 2004, the US and China concluded a bilateral air services agreement, permitting a nearly 5 fold increase in weekly frequencies over the next 6 years.

Airlines operating China-US routes go from 4 to 9 Number of weekly flights from 54 to 249 over the next 6 years.

The Transportation Dept estimates the economic impact of the agreement at $12 billion in additional revenues for US carriers over seven years. - IATA

Typical time savings in minutes and dollars per flight (2003)New York - Singapore 209 minutes $44,000Vancouver - Hong Kong 125 minutes $33,000

Space WeatherAviation Webpage

NOAA Scales Maximum in Currently past 24-hoursGeomagnetic Storms minor none Solar Radiation Storms none none Radio Blackouts moderate moderate

Effect of Solar X-rays on D-Region and HF Propagation.

• D-Region Absorption Product based on GOES X-Ray Flux (SEC Product)– The map shows regions affected by the increased D-region ionization resulting

from enhanced x-ray flux during magnitude X-1 Flare

24 Hour Forecast

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be extreme. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G5 level are expected. Solar radiation storms reaching the S3 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level are expected.

Radio Blackout Plot Polar Plot

TODAY’S

SPACE

WEATHER

Watches, Warnings, Alerts, and Summaries

Issue Time: 2004 Feb 24 1713 UTCALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5Threshold Reached: 2004 Feb 24 1712 UTC

New aviation product to help define HF degradation at high latitudes

Product will be introduced in 2006

GOES-N launch, originally scheduled for May 2005, has been postponed several times and is now scheduled for a Feb 2006 launch.

GOES-N features another Solar X-ray Imager (SXI)

Improved Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS)

- Protons 80 keV – 700 MeV (16 channels)

- Electrons 30 keV – 4 MeV (8 channels)

First-ever operational Extreme UltraViolet Sensor (EUVS)

GOES-N Launch (sometime soon…we hope!)

It will likely be some time (years) before GOES-N is turned on.

Links with Partners Links with Partners (examples)(examples)

SEC can not succeed without its partners:

Federal – NOAA, NASA, NSF, DoD, DoE, DoT (National Space Weather Program)

International• The 11 Regional Warning Centers (RWCs) of the

International Space Environment Service (ISES)• ESA• Tracking stations for ACE

Academic Commercial space weather service providers

SummarySummary

• The need for space weather services is growing at a substantial rate.

• ACE, GOES, and POES data usage is growing steadily.

• Real time solar wind data is essential. Space weather services cannot meet customer expectations without these measurements.

• The aviation community’s need for space weather support will play a critical role in SEC’s future.