Space Weather Aviation Operational Space Weather Aviation Operational NeedsNeeds

Bill MurtaghNOAA Space Environment Center

Boulder, Colorado

David BotelerGeological Survey of Canada

Ottawa, Ontario

Edmonton CPWGSeptember 2007

8 Minutes later: EUV and X-ray emission

• Radio (HF) communications are lost

• GPS signal loss

(mostly low and mid-latitude impacts for minutes to <hour)

30 – 1000 minutes later: Energetic Particle onset (Radiation Storm)

• HF loss on Polar flights (hours to days)

• Increased radiation threat• GPS degradation at high latitudes

• Avionics impacted

1 – 4 Days later: Eruptive material (CME) arrives

• GPS Systems are affected

• Radio Communications are affected

Movie from NASA SOHO Satellite

Space Weather Storms: Timing & Consequences

A Flare and/or Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on the Sun

CPTEWG Space Weather Sub-group“Aviation Space Weather User Requirements” Work ProjectMeeting held at United Airlines World HQ, August 10, 2007

David Boteler Natural Resources Canada & International Space Environment Services (ISES)

Gene Cameron United Airlines (UA)Bryn Jones AMS-SolarMetrics Policy Study (SMX)Joe Kunches NOAA Space Environment Center (SEC) Mike Stills United Airlines (UA) Members not present Genene Fisher AMS-SolarMetrics Policy Study (AMS) Dave Rome NAV CANADA

UA had been selected as the “operator” to lead this process. All - work will be submitted to CPTEWG for full evaluation and comment by all operators (airlines, business jet and ATC agencies)

Work of this CPTEWG Space Weather (SW) sub-group is to be carried out with reference to the AMS & SolarMetrics Policy Workshop Report “Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Aviation Operations” and the Findings and Recommendations found in Section 2 (Policy Issue: Communication of Space Weather Information).

Year 2 (2006-07): Policy Workshop, 29-30 Nov 06 Sponsors:

Highlights & Full Report online at:

www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy

www.solarmetrics.com

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Study

Improve Communication of Space Weather Information

Policy Workshop Recommendations

Define requirements for space weather information and how it is incorporated into the operational decision making process

• Cross Polar Trans East Working Group (CPTEWG), NOAA SEC, International Space Environment Services (ISES)

Deliver space weather information in an internationally agreed upon standardized format as defined by the aviation user requirements

• ISES Regional Warning Centres, FAA

Increase the interaction between the aviation community and the space weather research and service provider community

• NextGen sub-Groups, SESAR

The International Space Environment Service (ISES)

- The mission of the ISES is to encourage and facilitate near-real-time international monitoring and prediction of the space environment.

- ISES provides standardized space environment products and services to assist users reduce the impact of space weather on activities of human interest.

International Space Environment Service (ISES)

Spaceweather.org will provide one-stop shopping for space weather products in support of Polar operations

- Ensures consistency of forecast products- Leverages resources of multiple agencies

a. What is needed? (e.g., severity of storm, onset time, duration, regions & boundaries [lat, long])

b. When is it needed? Products needed to answer this question include: extended outlook, warning, alert, updates, and current conditions

c. How is it delivered? (e.g., graphic and text form, formation to be pushed and pulled, integrated with existing Ops systems).

User Requirements documentation will contain:

FAA provided guidance to get requirements and related documentation in to the FAA acquisition process:

• ConOps• Gap Analysis• Functional and Performance Requirements• Alternatives and Investment Analysis.

7-Day 24 hour 12 hour 6 hour Current

OutlookOutlook XX XX XX XX

WarningWarning XX XX

AlertAlert XX

UpdateUpdate As As neededneeded

Establishing RequirementsEstablishing Requirements

Products (a first draft)

***SAMPLE***Space Weather Outlook 06 December – 13 December 2007 Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels, with isolated major flare activity possible. HF communications will likely experience periods of blackout conditions at high latitudes due to solar radiation storms. A major radiation storm is possible. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels through 11 December, and quiet thereafter….

The need for changes to the NOAA SEC Scale for Solar Radiation Storms was discussed:

• S1 – S5 scales are based upon particle energies too low to have any significant effect

• Scales are applicable elsewhere

• SEC will explore a new scale or system for passenger and crew exposure in aircraft based upon particle energies ≥100MeV

• SEC will discuss with airlines how to interpret current information with regard to human exposure from higher energy particles

Commercial Airlines

Business Jets, Airlines

Future Air Transport

Increasing Dose Rate

Radiation Storm Concerns…Radiation Storm Concerns…

1) Polar cap absorption2) Auroral absorption

Phenomena are centered on the geomagnetic pole not the geographic pole.  absorption occurs at distinctly different geographic latitudes

Types of ProductsTypes of Products

x x

Lat Long 48.89 -76.23 49.23 -72.86 49.68 -69.43 50.24 -65.91 50.9 -62.3 51.66 -58.56 52.51 -54.66 53.43 -50.59 54.41 -46.32 55.41 -41.82 56.42 -37.09 57.42 -32.12 58.37 -26.91 59.26 -21.48 60.08 -15.85 60.8 -10.06

Graphical product could be provided, or data points for plotting onExisting operational systems

Note that there is a marked day/night effect in the polar cap absorption

Improve existing products…

Technological Development

RISK

AvionicsCommunicationsHumansGNSS

Impact Areas