regional verification of cpc’s seasonal outlooks michael halpert & kenneth pelman climate...
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Regional Verification of CPC’sSeasonal Outlooks
Michael Halpert
&
Kenneth Pelman
Climate Prediction Center
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Seasonal Outlook Schedule/Leads
• Each month, near mid-month CPC prepares a set of 13 outlooks for 3-month “seasons” (any set of 3 adjacent months) for lead times ranging from ½ month, 1 ½ months, 2 ½ months, 3 ½ months, …, 12 ½ months.
• The outlook for each successive/prior lead time overlaps the prior/successive one by 2 months. This overlap makes for a smooth variation from one map to the next.
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Outlook Categories and Probabilities
Seasonal outlooks are prepared for average temperature and total accumulated precipitation category
Three categories are used (terciles). These are BELOW-,NEAR- and ABOVE-normal (median), for temperature (precipitation).
Regions where the likelihoods of the three categories are the same (33.33…% each) are designated as “EC”, for equal chances.
In non-EC regions the labels on the contours give the total probability of the dominant category.
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Verification
• Heidke Skill Score
• H=[ ( NC – CH)/(NT – CH) ] * 100
• H=Heidke Skill Score• NC = total number of correct forecasts by station• NT = total number of forecasts made by station• CH = number of correct forecasts, by chance
• In 3 class system, scores range from -50 to +100
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• Examples
• a. 99 stations, 50 correct forecasts
• H = [(50-33)/(99-33)] *100 = 25.8
• b. 51 stations, 12 correct
• H = [(12-17)/(51-17)]*100 = -14.7
• c. 45 stations, 35 correct
• H=[(35-15)/(45-15)*100 = 66.7
Verification
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0.5 Month Lead Skill
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Data
9+ years of seasonal forecastsJFM 1995 – AMJ 2004
112 Total Forecasts
Winter: NDJ – JFM (28)Spring: FMA – AMJ (30)Summer: MJJ – JAS (27)Fall: ASO – OND (27)
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Temperature – All Seasons
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Temperature – By SeasonWinter Spring
Summer Fall
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Temperature – By Category (All)
Above Below
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Temperature - Category DJF&MAM
Winter/Above Winter/Below
Spring/Above Spring/Below
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Temperature - Category JJA&SON
Summer/Above Summer/Below
Fall/Above Fall/Below
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Temperature Summary (Official)
• Good skill from the Pacific NW, peaking in the SW and extending through the South.
• No skill in N. Plains, Great Lakes, NE
• Winter forecasts best, Fall poorest
• No skill in NE, always skill in SW
• All skill comes from above normal; negative skill everywhere for below
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Forecast Tools
1. Optimal Climate Normal (OCN)
2. Canoncial Correlation Analysis (CCA)
3. Coupled Model (CMP)
4. Screened Multiple Linear Regression (SMLR)
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Temperature – OCN/CCA All
OCN CCA
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Temperature – OCN/CCA By Category
OCN/Above OCN/Below
CCA/Above CCA/Below
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Temperature – SMLR/CMP All
SMLRCMP
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Temperature – SMLR/CMP By Category
SMLR/Above SMLR/Below
CMP/Above CMP/Below
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Forecast Tools - DJF
OCN CCA
CMP SMT
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Forecast Tools - MAM
OCN CCA
CMP SMT
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Forecast Tools - JJA
OCN CCA
CMP SMT
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Forecast Tools - SON
OCN CCA
CMP SMT
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Precipitation – All Seasons
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Precipitation – By Season
Winter Spring
Summer Fall
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Precipitation – By Category (All)
Above Below
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Precipitation - Category DJF&MAM
Winter/Above Winter/Below
Spring/Above Spring/Below
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Precipitation - Category JJA&SON
Summer/Above Summer/Below
Fall/Above Fall/Below
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Precipitation Summary (Official)
• Skill in West, South and NE (few cases)
• Skillful regions vary by season
• Skill in all seasons in NW, except Spring
• Skillful forecasts for both above and below in the SW and along Gulf Coast, FL
• Skill for winter/spring forecasts for below in South, only along Gulf Coast for above
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Precipitation – OCN/CCA All
OCN CCA
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Precipitation – OCN/CCA By Category
OCN/Above OCN/Below
CCA/Above CCA/Below
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Precipitation – SMLR/CMP All
SMLRCMP
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Precipitation – SMLR/CMP By Category
CMP/Above CMP/Below
SMLR/Above SMLR/Below
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Forecast Tools - DJF
OCN CCA
CMP SMT
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Forecast Tools - MAMOCN CCA
CMP SMT
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Forecast Tools - JJA
OCN CCA
CMP SMT
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Forecast Tools - SON
OCN CCA
CMP SMT
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DJF 2004-2005 Outlook