an overview of cpc’s development branch arun kumar chief, development branch climate prediction...
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An Overview of CPC’s Development An Overview of CPC’s Development BranchBranch
Arun KumarArun Kumar
Chief, Development BranchChief, Development Branch
Climate Prediction CenterClimate Prediction Center
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Current ActivitiesCurrent Activities
• Global and Regional Climate Analysis Global and Regional Climate Analysis
• Real-time Global Climate MonitoringReal-time Global Climate Monitoring
• Forecast Tool Development/ ImprovementForecast Tool Development/ Improvement
• Predictions, Verifications, and Expert AssessmentsPredictions, Verifications, and Expert Assessments
• Climate Diagnostics and AttributionClimate Diagnostics and Attribution
• Applied ResearchApplied Research
• Outreach and ServiceOutreach and Service
• International ActivitiesInternational Activities
• Climate Test-BedClimate Test-Bed
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Global and Regional Climate AnalysisGlobal and Regional Climate Analysis
– Maintain and monitor various atmospheric and Maintain and monitor various atmospheric and oceanic real-time climate analyses systems (R1, oceanic real-time climate analyses systems (R1, R2, NARR, GODAS)R2, NARR, GODAS)
– Disseminates associated datasets to customers Disseminates associated datasets to customers and partnersand partners
– Analyses are either model based or objectiveAnalyses are either model based or objective
– The analysis efforts are the backbone for The analysis efforts are the backbone for real-timereal-time global climate monitoring global climate monitoring
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Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : OceansReal-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans
SSH
HC
SST
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Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : OceansReal-time Global Climate Monitoring : Oceans
ENSO
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Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: SurfaceReal-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface
Droughts
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Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: SurfaceReal-time Global Climate Monitoring: Surface
Surface Temperature
Rainfall
Soil Moisture
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Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: TroposphereReal-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere
Variability
Storm TracksTeleconnections
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Real-time Global Climate Monitoring: TroposphereReal-time Global Climate Monitoring: Troposphere
MJO
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Real-time Global Climate Monitoring : StratosphereReal-time Global Climate Monitoring : Stratosphere
SSW
Total Ozone
Ozone
Hole
Trends
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Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated AssessmentsAssessments
ENSO Diagnostics Discussion
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Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated Predictions, Verifications, and Integrated AssessmentsAssessments
Climate Forecast System
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Climate Diagnostics and AttributionClimate Diagnostics and Attribution
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Applied ResearchApplied Research
– Developing improved analysesDeveloping improved analyses
• Enhancing data bases (data archeology)Enhancing data bases (data archeology)
• Quality control and analysis procedures Quality control and analysis procedures
• Consistency among analyses for different variablesConsistency among analyses for different variables
• New objectively analyzed fieldsNew objectively analyzed fields
– Improving forecast toolsImproving forecast tools
• Multi-model ensemble techniquesMulti-model ensemble techniques
• DroughtDrought
• Bias correction techniquesBias correction techniques
• Forecast consolidation techniquesForecast consolidation techniques
• Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; Empirical forecast tools (e.g., MJO and ENSO composites; teleconnections;…)teleconnections;…)
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Applied ResearchApplied Research
– Understanding predictability for various time-Understanding predictability for various time-scalesscales
• MJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interactionMJO predictability and the influence of air-sea interaction
• Sources and estimates of associated predictability Sources and estimates of associated predictability (e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…)(e.g., sea-ice, climate trends;…)
• Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm Weather-Climate connection: Impact of LF variability on storm tracks, etc.tracks, etc.
– Developing new productsDeveloping new products
• Monitoring of ENSO heat budgetMonitoring of ENSO heat budget
• Objective drought outlookObjective drought outlook
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SummarySummary
• Real-time climate analysis and monitoring products Real-time climate analysis and monitoring products generated by the generated by the Development BranchDevelopment Branch are used are used extensively worldwideextensively worldwide
• Analysis products maintained by the Analysis products maintained by the Development Development BranchBranch, e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide , e.g., R1, R2, NARR, rainfall, have a wide audience and user baseaudience and user base
• Real-time briefings provided by the Real-time briefings provided by the Development BranchDevelopment Branch are a reliable source of evolving global climate are a reliable source of evolving global climate conditionsconditions
• Applied research efforts in the Applied research efforts in the Development BranchDevelopment Branch focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, focuses on advancing NOAA’s climate analysis, monitoring, and prediction effortsmonitoring, and prediction efforts