networks, plant health and biodiversity
DESCRIPTION
botanic gardens, meta-analysis, use of networks in ecology, conservation of biodiversity, species-people correlation, sudden oak death, Phytophthora ramorum, network epidemiology, geographical genetics, scale-dependence of the species-people correlation, invasion of plant pathogens, plant health and global change, sustainability,TRANSCRIPT
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Networks, plant health and biodiversity
Marco PautassoFRB, Paris, 28 April 2011
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from: Pautasso & Parmentier (2007) Botanica Helvetica
(c)
(d)
(a) (c)
log 1
0sp
pri
chne
ss (n
)
(b)
Living collections of the world’s botanical gardens
(d)
(yr)
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from: Golding et al. (2010) Annals of Botany
Living collections of the world’s botanic gardens (2)
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Global biodiversity patterns: vascular plants
from Barthlott et al. (2007) Erdkunde
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from: Pautasso & Gaston (2005, 2006) Ecology Letters and Global Ecology & Biogeography
Bird abundance surveys with indication of plot area
Survey year
Log 10
plot
are
a (k
m2 )
Log 1
0as
sem
blag
e ab
unda
nce
(indi
vidu
als)(c)
Log10 plot area (km2)
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Some recent studies of the spp-people correlation
World wilderness map from: UNEP-WCMC World Atlas of Biodiversity, GIS analysis by R. Lesslie (ANU), method developed for the Australian Heritage Commission
Balmfordet al. (2001) ScienceReal et al.
(2003) J Biogeog
McKinney (2003) Biol Cons
Vazquez & Gaston (2006) Biodiv & Cons
Chown et al. (2003) Ecol Appl
Luck (2007)J Biogeog
Araujo(2003) GEB
Hunter & Jonzon(1993) CB
Ding et al. (2006) J Biogeog
Moreno-Rueda &
Pizarro (2008) Ecol Res
Diniz-Filho et al. (2006) Acta Oecol
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from: Lonsdale et al. (2008) European Journal of Forest Research
Random sample of 100 papers per year on ‘species richness’ in WOS (1991-2004)
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n = 2877, r2 = 0.18, y = 1.75+ 0.22x, p < 0.0001
1
2
3
4
2 3 4 5 6 7
log10 human population size (n)
log1
0 vas
cula
r pla
nt s
pp ri
chne
ss (n
)
A positive species-people correlation for vascular plants in US counties
Data from the Synthesis of the North American Flora
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from: Chiari et al. (2010) Journal of Animal Ecology
Locally, the spp-people correlation tends to be negative
birds in Florence
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Does sampling bias explain the positive regional species-people correlation?
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
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US counties with (•) or without (o) Universities and/or Botanical Gardens
from: Pautasso & McKinney (2007) Conservation Biology
• N = 692, r2 = 0.13, y = 2.15 (SE = 0.08) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
o N = 2187, r2 = 0.10, y = 2.18 (SE = 0.05) + 0.15 (SE = 0.01) x, p < 0.0001
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From: Hufnagel et al. (2005) PNAS (air) & Kaluza et al. (2010) Interface (sea)
Plant (and botanist) movements in a globalized world
passengers
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NATURAL
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
food webs
airport networks
cell metabolism
neural networks
railway networks
ant nests
WWWInternet
electrical power grids
software mapscomputing
gridsE-mail
patterns
innovation flows
telephone calls
co-authorship nets
family networks
committees
sexual partnerships DISEASE
SPREAD
Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US
Internet structure
Network pictures from: Newman (2003) SIAM Review
HIV spread
network
Some recent applications of network theory
urban road networks
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
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From Brown & Hovmøller (2002) Science
Examples of invasions of plant pathogens
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Phytophthora ramorum in the
US: forest outbreaks vs. national risk
Map from www.suddenoakdeath.orgKelly, UC-Berkeley
Hazard map from Koch & Smith (2007)
III SOD Science Symposium
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from: McKelvey, Koch & Smith (2008) SOD Science Symposium III
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Source: United States Department of Agriculture, 2004Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine
Trace forward/back zipcode
Positive (Phytophthora ramorum) site
Hold released
Importance of trace-forward data in networks of plant movements
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from: Cushman & Meentemeyer (2008) Journal of Ecology
Multi-scale correlation of human presence and Phytophthora ramorum disease incidence
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Sudden Oak Death in California
from Brasier & Webber (2010) Nature
Sudden Larch Death in SW-England
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Source: Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
Phytophthora ramorum in England & Wales
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Network of co-occurrences at infected sites (England & Wales, 2003-2005) of plant genera susceptible to Phytophthora ramorum
from: Pautasso et al. (2008) Proceedings of the 3rd SOD Science Symposium
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A very short overview of network theory
Minor and Urban (2008) Conservation Biology
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Different types of networks
modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Interface
random scale-free
local small-world
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from: Shirley & Rushton (2005) Epidemiology & Infection
Degree distribution of nodes in a scale-free network
based on a reconstruction of the UK foot-and mouth
disease network.Fitted line:
y= 118.5x -1.6, R2 = 0.87
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Clustering vs. path length
modified from: Roy & Pascual (2006) Ecological Complexity
randomlocal small-world
local small-world random
path length
clustering
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Biodiversity conservation at the interface between disciplines
Kiss et al. (2010) Journal of Informetrics
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step 1
step 2
step 3
step n
…
Simple model of spread and establishment in a network
pt probability of transmission
… 100node 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
pp probability of persistence
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0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
probability of transmission
prob
abili
ty o
f per
sist
ence
localrandomsmall-worldscale-free (two-way)scale-free (uncorrelated)scale-free (one way)
Lower epidemic threshold for scale-free networks with positive correlation between in- and out-degree
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2011) Phytopathology
Epidemic does not develop Epidemic develops
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Lower epidemic threshold for two-way scale-free networks (unless networks are sparsely connected)
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means
at p < 0.05
from: Moslonka-Lefebvre et al. (2009) Journal of Theoretical Biology
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Correlation of epidemic final size with out-degree of starting node increases with network connectivity
N replicates = 100; error bars are St. Dev.; different letters show sign. different means at p < 0.05
from: Pautasso et al. (2010) Ecological Complexity
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Proportion of producers/
wholesalers/retailers
in networks depending on:
a) category definition, b) network
structure and c) connectance
N replicates = 100; error bars
are St. Dev.
from: Pautasso et al. (2010)
Journal of Applied Ecology
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Correlation between proportion of producers (wholesalers) and correlation between links in and out of nodes
N replicates = 100from: Pautasso et al. Journal of Applied Ecology (2010)
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MacLeod et al. (2010) Food Security
Plant health and stakeholder engagement
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governance
Plant health policy/governance quadrangle
policy makerseconomists
publicsexpertsrisk perception
risk a
nalysis
cons
ulta
tion/
en
gage
men
t
values
prio
ritis
atio
n
impacts
From Mills et al. (in press) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
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Human inequality and biodiversity threat
from Holland et al. (2009) Conservation Biology
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International horticultural networks
Dehnen-Schmutz et al. (2010) Scientia Horticulturae
(European trade in ornamental plants)
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Brenn et al. (2008) Mycological Research
Nurseries as hubs
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Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees
from Vendramin et al. (2008) Evolution
Pinus pinea
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Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees
from Gao et al. (2007) Molecular Ecology
Taxus wallichiana
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Acknowledgements
Claude Steck, Birmensdorf
Mike Jeger, Silwood
Ingrid Parmentier,
Bruxelles
Kevin Gaston,
Sheffield
Diego Fontaneto,Stockholm
Birgit & Florian Schlick-Steiner, Innsbruck
Mike McKinney, Knoxville
Lorenzo Marini, Padova
Alessandro Chiarucci,
Siena
Susanne Fritz, Copenhagen
Ottmar Holdenrieder, Zurich
Peter Weisberg, Reno
Glen Powell, London
Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Paris
Tom Harwood, Canberra
Caroline Pecher, Bozen
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References Barbosa AM, Fontaneto D, Marini L & Pautasso M (2010) Positive regional species–people correlations: a sampling artefact or a key issue for sustainable development? Animal Conservation 13: 446-447Dehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Golding J, Güsewell S, Kreft H, Kuzevanov VY, Lehvävirta S, Parmentier I & Pautasso M (2010) Species-richness patterns of the living collections of the world's botanic gardens: a matter of socio-economics? Annals of Botany 105: 689-696Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. Journal of Theoretical Biology 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics and Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M & McKinney ML (2007) The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area and human population size in the US. Conservation Biology 21, 5: 1333-1340 Pautasso M & Parmentier I (2007) Are the living collections of the world’s botanical gardens following species-richness patterns observed in natural ecosystems? Botanica Helvetica 117: 15-28Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309