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New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2005 Conference Call Presentation

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Page 1: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

New CenturyFinancial Corporation

Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2005Conference Call Presentation

Page 2: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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Safe Harbor StatementCertain statements contained in this slide presentation may be deemed to be forward-looking statements under federal securities laws, and the company intends that such forward-looking statements be subject to the safe harbor created thereby. The forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: (i) the company’s expectation that the acquisition of the RBC Mortgage origination platform will allow the company to provide a broader range of mortgage products; (ii) the company’s expectation that it will add $2 billion to its REIT portfolio of mortgage loans in the first quarter of 2006; (iii) the company’s objective to manage capital, liquidity and leverage to maximize return while managing risk; (iv) the company’s expectation that it will seek to raise additional low-cost capital when appropriate; (v) the company’s expectation that it may opportunistically repurchase shares of its common stock with excess liquidity; (vi) the company’s expectation that it will deliver shareholder value, including both dividends and per share appreciation by (a) delivering consistently strong operating performance, including TRS and portfolio earnings, (b) broadening the mortgage products and services available through each of the company’s delivery channels and (c) lowering costs and increasing productivity to enhance the company’s competitive position in the industry; (vii) the company’s belief that by expanding the product lines available through each of its delivery channels, it can improve the customer value proposition and profitably gain market share; (viii) the company’s expectation that its historic operations will begin the roll-out of Alt-A products in the first half of 2006; (ix) the company’s expectation with respect to the mortgage market in 2006, including (a) rising interest rates and a flat yield curve, (b) an uncertain housing market, (c) a competitive landscape and potential sector consolidation and (d) an overall mortgage market decline based on MBA’s forecast for 2006 of $2.2 trillion; (x) the company’s strategy to (a) take advantage of its strong financial position and secondary market reputation, (b) continue to improve the value of its loans and (c) reduce costs; (xi) the reaffirmation of the company’s 2006 dividend guidance of $7.30 per share; (xii) the company’s expectation that its 2005 portfolio will provide an estimated $3.00 per share toward its dividend; (xiii) the company’s expectation that additions to the portfolio in 2006 and profitability from the TRS will provide the remainder of the 2006 dividend; (xiv) the company’s expectation that production volume in the first quarter of 2006 will be seasonally low, but higher than in the first quarter of 2005; (xv) the company’s expectation that gain-on-sale for non-prime operations for the first quarter of 2006 will be between 1.75% and 2.00%; and (xvi) the company’s expectation that operating margin for the first quarter of 2006 will be between 40 and 60 basis points. The company cautions that these statements are qualified by important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: (i) the condition of the U.S. economy and financial system; (ii) the interest rate environment; (iii) the effect of increasing competition in the company’s sector; (iv) the condition of the markets for whole loans and mortgage-backed securities; (v) the stability of residential property values; (vi) the company’s ability to comply with the requirements applicable to REITs; (vii) the company’s ability to grow its loan portfolio; (viii) the company’s ability to continue to maintain low loan acquisition costs; (ix) the potential effect of new state or federal laws and regulations; (x) the company’s ability to maintain adequate credit facilities to finance its business; (xi) the outcome of litigation or regulatory actions pending against the company; (xii) the company’s ability to adequately hedge its residual values, cash flows and fair values; (xiii) the company's ability to effectively integrate its recently acquired operations; (xiv) the accuracy of the assumptions regarding the company’s repurchase allowance and residual valuations, prepayment speeds and loan loss allowance (including loan loss allowance assumptions with respect to Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma); (xv) the assumptions underlying the company’s risk management practices; and (xvi) the ability of the servicing platform to maintain high performance standards. Additionalinformation on these and other factors is contained in the company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004 and the other periodic filings of the company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company assumes no, and hereby disclaims any, obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this press release.

Page 3: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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Executive Succession Plan

Brad A. Morrice to become CEO, effective July 1, 2006

Robert K. Cole to remain executive Chairman of the Board and continue to be involved on a full-time basis

Edward F. Gotschall elects semi-retirement and remains a member of the Board

Page 4: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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2005 Accomplishments

Delivered four consecutive dividend increases and paid $6.50 pershare

Grew REIT portfolio of mortgage loans by 48% to $13.9 billion

Continued excellent portfolio performance, with very low delinquencies and losses

Reduced loan acquisition costs to a record low of 1.65% in fourth quarter*

Delivered EPS of $7.17, including hurricane-related charge of $0.14 per share, and ROE of 21%

*Excludes recently acquired operations

Page 5: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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2005 Accomplishments

Capitalized on position as an industry leader and delivered record loan production of $56.1 billion

Completed acquisition of RBC Mortgage origination platform allowing the company to provide a broader range of mortgage products

Page 6: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

2005 Financial Review

Page 7: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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2005 Earnings-Per-Share

$1.48

$1.65

$2.04$2.00*

$1.00

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

$2.00

$2.25

1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05

*Includes a charge of $0.14 per share for hurricane-related losses

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Growth in Book Value Per Share

$6.70 $10.20

$17.96

$32.90

$35.17

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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$9.4$10.8

$15.4 $15.7$13.9

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05

REIT Portfolio of Mortgage Loans

In Billions

Grew portfolio by 48% during 2005 in order to:Increase shareholder value through a dividend programDiversify revenuesCreate a stable earnings stream

Addition of $2 billion planned for 1Q06

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REIT Portfolio ROA and ROE

2.5% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4%

21.9%

28.6%

34.0%

26.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05

ROA (1) ROE (2)

(1) Calculated as REIT earnings divided by average REIT portfolio balance

(2) Calculated as REIT earnings divided by average REIT-only equity (excludes equity of subsidiaries)

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-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36

Base Loss Curve*

2003 Vintage2004 Vintage2005 Vintage

New Century Base Loss Curve vs. Vintage Actuals(all securitized product) – Cumulative Pool Loss

Seasoning (in months)

 (dollars in billions) 2005 2004 2003Init ial collateral pool $11.0 $10.1 $4.9Current collateral pool $8.9 $5.7 $1.5 Delinquency (60+ days) 2.42% 4.25% 6.53% Cumulative losses-to-date 0.01% 0.09% 0.31% Projected cumulative losses over life 3.05% 2.24% 1.40%

Combined REIT and TRS Mortgage Loan Portfolio Vintage Data at December 31, 2005

*Base loss curve is the basis for building the company’s allowance for loan losses.

Page 12: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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Capital and Liquidity

Capital-to-managed-assets ratio was 6.83% at December 31, 2005

Cash and liquidity was $530.4 million at December 31, 2005

Objective is to manage capital, liquidity and leverage to maximize return while managing risk

We will seek to raise additional low-cost capital when appropriate

We may opportunistically repurchase shares of common stock with excess liquidity

Page 13: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

2006 Strategic Objectives and Outlook

Page 14: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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2006 Strategic Objectives

Delivering consistently strong operating performance, including TRS and portfolio earnings

Broadening the mortgage products and services available through each of our delivery channels

Lowering costs and increasing productivity to enhance our competitive position in the industry

Deliver shareholder value, including both dividends and per share appreciation by:

Page 15: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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Celebrating 10 Year AnniversaryAnother Record Year of Loan Production

In Billions

$0.4$2.0 $3.3 $4.1 $4.2 $6.2

$14.2

$27.4

$42.2

$56.1

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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January 2005 to January 2006

7.90%

8.54%

7.27%7.27% 7.22%7.08% 7.11%

7.36% 7.22% 7.18%7.42% 7.64%

8.23%

4.67%4.80%

3.56%3.74% 4.11% 4.05% 4.01% 3.97% 4.21% 4.41% 4.31%

4.84% 4.85%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-06

Coup

on a

nd A

vg 2

Yr S

WA

P

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

Mar

gin

Coupon* Avg 2 Yr SWAP Margin

Funded Coupon Trend

*Excludes recently acquired operations

Page 17: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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Improving Product Mix to Optimize Execution

27%

38%35%

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05

Interest-Only Loans as a Percentage of Total Loan Production*

*Excludes recently acquired operations

Successfully reduced percentage of I/O loans to improve secondary execution and profitability

Importantly, our I/O product is performing better than we anticipated

Page 18: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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Expanding Product Lines

RBCM acquisition provided a catalyst for offering a broader mortgage product line

Also provided builder/realtor retail channel

By expanding the product lines available through each of our delivery channels, we believe we can improve the customer value proposition and profitably gain market share

Acquired operations now offering non-prime productsHistoric operations will begin roll-out of Alt-A products in first half of 2006

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Driving Down Loan Acquisition Costs

0.34%0.22% 0.29%

0.06%

2.02%

1.67%1.53% 1.59%

2.36%

1.89%1.65%

1.82%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

1Q05 2Q05 3Q05* 4Q05*

Net Points and Fees Operating Expense Total LAC

*Excludes recently acquired operations

Note: For GAAP reconciliation see Addendum A at the end of this presentation

Loan Acquisition Costs (in dollars)

(in thousands)

1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05Net Points and Fees 33,189$ 29,439$ 46,605$ 8,920$ Operating Expenses 207,156 224,674 241,314 208,937 Total 240,345$ 254,113$ 287,919$ 217,857$

Page 20: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

2006 Outlook

Page 21: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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2006 OutlookExpect continued challenging market conditions

Rising interest rates and flat yield curve

Uncertain housing market

Competitive landscape and potential sector consolidation

Overall mortgage market to decline based on MBA’s forecast for 2006 of $2.2 trillion

New Century’s strategy:Take advantage of our strong financial position and secondary market reputation

Continue to improve the value of our loans

Reduce costs

*Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) forecast does not include HELOCs or second mortgages

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2006 Outlook

Reaffirm 2006 dividend guidance of $7.30 per shareCarry-over of 2005 REIT taxable income of approximately $1.88 per shareYear-end 2005 portfolio is estimated to provide another $3.00 per share

Additions to the portfolio in 2006 and profitability from the TRS will provide the remainder of the dividend

Operational Outlook for 1Q06Expect production volume to be seasonally low, but higher than 1Q05 Forecast gain-on-sale for non-prime operations to be between 1.75% and 2.00%Forecast operating margin of between 40 and 60 basis points

Page 23: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

New CenturyFinancial Corporation

Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2005Conference Call Presentation

Page 24: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

Addendum A

Page 25: New Century Financial Corporation - library.corporate …library.corporate-ir.net/library/73/739/73989/items/181839/4thQtr... · New Century Financial Corporation Fourth Quarter and

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LAC GAAP Reconciliation

(1) Excluded expenses consist of profit-based compensation, commercial lending overhead, and certain professional fees.(2) Excluded expenses consist of profit-based compensation

The reconciliation in the table above illustrates the differences between overhead included in loan acquisition costs and overhead reflected in the income statement. The reconciliation does not address net points and fees because they are deferred at origination under GAAP and recognized when the related loans are sold or securitized.

The company believes that the presentation of loan acquisition costs provides useful information regarding financial performance because it allows the company to monitor the performance of its core operations, which is more difficult to do when looking at GAAP financial reports. Management uses this measure for the same purpose. The presentation of this additional information is not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP.

(dollars in thousands) 4Q05 3Q05 2Q05 1Q05 4Q04 Total operating expenses $ 219,018 $ 233,639 $ 220,773 $ 197,935 $ 198,495

Add / subtract: Recently acquired operations expense (52,476) (21,244) - - - Servicing division expense (15,118) (11,787) (10,749) (10,718) (8,881)

Other excluded expenses(1) (15,887) (19,494) (18,150) (16,661) (12,708) Direct origination costs classif ied as a reduction in gain-on-sale 73,400 60,200 32,800 36,600 39,200

Loan acquisition costs – overhead component $ 208,937 $ 241,314 $ 224,674 $ 207,156 $ 216,106 Divided by: quarterly volume (excludes recently acquired operations) $13,171,734 $15,823,462 $13,444,170 $10,251,567 $11,503,993 Loan acquisition costs overhead as a % of loan prod. 1.59% 1.53% 1.67% 2.02% 1.88%

Recently acquired operations expense 52,476 Other excluded expenses(2) (2,845)

Loan acquisition costs – overhead component $ 49,631 Divided by: quarterly volume (recently acquired operations) $ 2,529,172 Loan acquisition costs overhead as a % of loan prod. 1.96%

GAAP Reconciliation of Loan Acquisition Costs (Operating Expense Component)