New Challenges for Defining Fusion Requirements

Dr. James LlinasResearch Professor, Executive Director

Center for Multisource Information FusionUniversity at Buffalo and CUBRC

MSU /Army Research Laboratory Knowledge Integration Management Center of Excellence (KIMCOE) Workshop October 2006

Outline• Conflict in the Modern World: Brief Thoughts• Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of

Data and Information Fusion1. Challenges of Robustness and Scalability

2. Network-centric Warfare/Network-enabled Capability

3. Effects-based Operations

4. Operational Net Assessment

5. The Information Landscape: PMESII

• The Way Forward

The Expanding Framework of Conflict*

• “To be very clear: The form warfare takes could still extend into state-on-state conflict, as in the case of a Chinese modernization process gone wrong; but it could also include terrorism, insurgency, information war, and much else. The critical issue is the foundational dynamics of conflict, the causes of all of these various forms of warfare”

• The major question for DF process designers—Design for highly-agile robustness or sets of systems with bounded capabilities in a Networked or Federated Architecture??

* Taken from Mazarr, M.J., “Extremism, Terror, and the Future of Conflict”, Policy Review, March 2006

Spectrum of Warfare*

*Smith, E.A., “Complexity, Networking, and Effects-based Approaches to Operations”, CCRP Publications, 2005

Need Metrics (based on Observables) that typify changes in a Domain

And Theories that explain Performance as a fct of Domain Metrics

Challenge 1: Robustness and Scalability

Domain Parameter x

Domain Parameter y

Per

form

ance

Problem Space Parameter x

Problem Space Parameter yP

erfo

rman

ce

Domain A

Domain B

ROBUSTNESS: Extensibility ACROSS Problem Domains

SCALABILITY: Extensibility WITHIN a Problem Domain

ProblemSegment A

ProblemSegment B

Operational Trajectory

Strategies for Robustness/Scalability

• Options– Various compensation strategies at the performance

edges of given algorithms– Search for the “golden algorithm”– Employ (but manage) multiple algorithms

• In concert—eg hybrid systems (eg deductive/inductive)

• In sequence—manage instantiation/termination sequences– Requires knowledge of calibrated performance as a fct of

(observable) Problem Space parameters

Scalability via Intelligently-Managed Algorithms

Observable Problem Space Parameter Pi

Observable Problem Space Parameter Pj

NotionalAlgorithmPerformance

Algorithm 1

Algorithm 2Dynamic Problem Space Trajectory

L4 Intelligent Algorithm Mgr--terminate Algor 1--invoke Algor 2

RequiredPerformanceRange

Adaptive Sensor Fusion ArchitectureDARPA/CMIF, AFRL/IF-ASF, XDA

XDA Encapsulation

LibraryAdapter

ExistingComponentXDA API

XDA Pgmmrs API

Native Data

Control

The Future (?)—Autonomic Data Fusion Systems*

• Self-Configuration: Automatic configuration of components; • Self-Healing: Automatic discovery, and correction of faults; • Self-Optimization: Automatic monitoring and control of resources to ensure the

optimal functioning with respect to the defined requirements; • Self-Protection: Proactive identification and protection from arbitrary attacks.

* Sterritt, R. and Bustard, D., “Towards an Autonomic Computing Environment”, 14th International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, 2003

Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion

2. Network-centric Warfare/Network-enabled Capability

-- Service-oriented Architectures

-- Communities of Interest

Impacts of NCW / NEC

SOA Overarching Framework for Interconnection--Basic “Enterprise” Services--

FunctionalService iFunctional

Service iFunctionalService iFunctional

Service iFunctionalService iFunctional

Service iFunctionalService iFunctional

Service iFunctionalService i

Data Fusion FunctionalService i

Improved, Agile WarfightingAnd Mission Effectiveness

New PatternsOf

Behavior

New PatternsOf

Behavior

New PatternsOf

Behavior

“Communities of Interest”

NCW

Impacts toDF

Service Design

New Ways of :-Arch/Fctl design

-Dec-Mkg-Analysis

-Assessment

?

CoreEnterpriseServices

(CES)

Comms

Backbone

Community-of-Interest (COI) Capabilities

Users

MessagingESM

Discovery Collaboration

Mediation Security/IA

AppStorage

UserAsst

Levels of Services above

core level

C2

Intel

Weapon Systems

Dynamically Created COIs Logistics

Sensors Personnel

Finance

Etc.

GIG: Net-Centric Enterprise Services (NCES)

A “Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA)” aka“Service-Based Architecture (SBA)”

The User Side of the GIG :“Communities of Interest” *

User/Entity

• Installations & Environment• Human Resources• Strategic Planning & Budget• Accounting & Finance• Logistics• Acquisition

Business Mission Area ••••••

Allied/ Coalition& Multi-national

Domain COI

Capabilities

Specialized functional area information and services

ICOrg SpacesExpedient COIs

C r o s s D o m a i n C O I s

Institutional COIs

Information Exchange

Core Enterprise Services (CES)

ICSIS Community Space

User Assistant

Storage Messaging IA/Security

IA/SecurityESM

IA/SecurityESM

IA/SecurityESM

Discovery

IA/SecurityESM

IA/SecurityESM

IA/SecurityESM

Mediation

IA/SecurityESM

IA/SecurityESM

IA/SecurityESM

IA/SecurityESM

ESM

IA/Security

Application

CollaborationEnterprise

ServiceManagement

(ESM)

Con

trol

led

Info

Exc

hang

e

Con

trol

led

Info

Exc

hang

e (C

IE)

WarfightingMission

Area

Enterprise Information Environment Mission Area

Transformational Communications (TC) & Computing Infrastructure

National Intelligence

Domain

* R. Walker Brfg DISA April 2004

NetCentric

EnterpriseServices

AutomatedFunctionalSupport(eg Fusion)

Mixed-InitiativeDynamics

COI Dynamics in Network-Centric Warfare

ProblemSpace

Dynamics

Inter-humanDynamics

EmergentForm

Self-synchronization

Consensus-formation, Sensemaking

Self-organization

Complex Adaptive System

Agility,Speed

Decisions,Actions, Effects

C2 COI

Mission—Tasking—Cmdrs Intent

VirtualDynamics

HybridDynamics

Human-AgentDynamics

Operating “On the Edge of Chaos”

(1) A. Ilachinski, “An Artificial-Life Approach to War”, Ctr for Naval Analyses brfg, http://www.cna.org.isaac/.(2) Final report, Sensemaking Symposium, CCRP pgm, Oct 2001

(1) (2)

Non-creative,Non-agile

But good for well-definedproblems

Chaotic

CAS

Conventional OrganZone of Operation Must

Adapt To Both

Requires “Organizationally-adaptive” Data Fusion processes

Challenge 2: NCW/NEC Implications

• Designing the DF/IF capability as a Dynamically-composable Service

• Understanding the informational requirements of users operating in COI/CAS-type environments—and building DF/IF processes that address those needs– “pursue no optima”– “persistent disequilibrium”

• Developmental demands:– Entirely new algorithmic paradigms (perhaps)– Adaptation in providing fused estimates across different

COI structures– “campaigns of experimentation”– Large-scale statistically-designed experiments

3. Effects-based Operations

• Challenge 3 Fusion Requirements: – Support SA for:

• Task Nomination (which are situationally-dependent) • Dynamic Influence Diagram/Causal Link Updating

– Monitor “Effects” (Effects Indicators; BDA-type fct)

Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion

Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion

4. Operational Net Assessment (JFCOM)

C m dr'sG uida nc e

E ffe c tsA n a lys is

ISRASSE TS

E m be dde dG a m ing

a ndR o ute

E s tim a tio n

N o m ina te d B L U EA c tio n

o rR e s o urc e U tiliza tio n

C o nte xtua lD a ta a nd

Info rm a tio n

M U L T I-P E R S P E C T IV EB L U E F U S IO N P R O C E S S E s t i m ate d

R e dC O A

A da ptive IS R S e ns o rM a na g e m e nt

B lue V ie wo f B lue

B lue V ie wo f R e d

B lue V ie wo f (R e d V ie w o f B lue )

B lue V ie wo f (R e d V ie w o f R e d )

B l ue Se l f-aw ar e ne s sand Vul ne r abi l i t i e s

Inhe re ntT hre a t

P e rc e ive d T hre a tby R e d

R e d's S e lf-a w a re ne s s

* Vane, R., et al, “Urban Sunrise”, AFRL-IF-RS-TR-2004-22, Final Technical Report, February 2004

DOMAIN

Cognitive(Synapseware)

the Human Mind and heart

Information(Software)

abstract symbolism and electronics

Physical (Hardware)

matter

Disciplinesof Study

•Epistemology•PsychologyIssues of existenceand consciousness

•Logic•Information theoryIssues of symbolicrepresentation,manipulation (mathand language) andknowledge

•PhysicsIssues of matter andenergy

Objects ofAnalysis

•Human will•Ideas,thoughts,knowledge

•Symbols,uncertainty,

•Mass,energy

DirectIntelligence

•SIGINT•NETINT•HUMINT

•IMINT•MASINT•HUMINT

ROLE

WillDecide

Perceive

ComputeTransfer

Symbolize

Sense

Multiple State Layers*

Red view of Red

Red view of BlueStrengths/Vulnerabilities

- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information

ObjectiveStrategies

- Diplomatic- Information- Military- Economic

Strengths/Vulnerabilities- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information

Blue view of Blue

Blue view of RedStrengths/Vulnerabilities

- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information

ObjectiveStrategies

- Diplomatic- Information- Military- Economic

Strengths/Vulnerabilities- Political- Military - Economic- Social- Infrastructure- Information

War Game

Figure 2. Blue View/Red View.

Challenge 4: Fusion Requirements to Support ONA

(Blue’s estimates of: )

Cognitive Symbolic Physical Blue-Blue Blue-Red Blue(Red-Blue) Blue(Red-Red)

12 State Estimates !!

5. The Information Challenge: PMESII

PMESII = Political, Military, Economic, Infrastructure, Information

Compiling the Factors Influencing the Nature of Data and Information Fusion

Way Ahead

• So many paradigms, so little time• An Evolutionary Path toward satisfying these new

requirements needs to be developed, while also conceptualizing / developing a Fusion Framework for Future Capability—to define the End Point

• Serious assessments of the potential (or boundaries) for automated inferencing capabilities needs to be revisited

• Extraordinarily important to define rational roles for humans as components of a Holistic Fusion Process—Fusion in the face of modern-day complexities and technological limits must exploit human capability in a more synergistic way

Conflict in the Modern World: Brief Thoughts*

• “…warfare is a product of international politics, and the form warfare takes is closely related to its causes: In the reasons for war, we will find clues as to the sorts of wars we will fight.”

• “Some of the documents of the Office of Force Transformation point to a broader agenda, but if we look at the practical efforts of the Defense Department — where its budget goes, what its troops are trained to do, how its operations are conducted — the emphasis remains stubbornly on the force-on-force route to military victory.”

• …and also for R&D, at least in a proportional sense (Llinas)

* Largely taken from Mazarr, M.J., “Extremism, Terror, and the Future of Conflict”, Policy Review, March 2006

More from Mazarr

• “Mostly the change is in why it is fought, which carries implications for the nature of battle and warfare”

• “The essential truth about the future of conflict is not to be found in information warfare or Netwar or Fourth Generation War. The bigger truth is that the nature of conflict has already shifted from a largely rational enterprise waged by elite-dominated states conducted in pursuit of power objectives, to the product of mass psychological trauma attendant to modernization”