new jersey industry and occupational employment projections 2006-2016
TRANSCRIPT
New JerseyIndustry and Occupational Employment Projections
2006-2016
Annual Employment Change in New Jersey
1939-2008
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1939
-194
0
1949
-195
0
1959
-196
0
1969
-197
0
1979
-198
0
1989
-199
0
1999
-200
0
Em
plo
ymen
t C
han
ge
(000s)
Employment growth in New Jersey is projected to lag
the nation
6.2
11.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Total Nonfarm
NJ US
Pro
jecte
d g
row
th
‘06 –
‘16
Goods Producing industries will continue to decline in both state
and nation
6.2
-10.1
11.0
-3.3
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Total Nonfarm
NJ US
Goods Producing
Pro
jecte
d g
row
th ‘06 –
‘16
All growth projected to occur in Service Providing
industries
6.2
-10.1
8.511.0
-3.3
13.8
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Total Nonfarm Service Providing
NJ US
Goods Producing
Pro
jecte
d g
row
th ‘06 –
‘16
Annual employment growth among Private sector
-5.0-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.0
90-9
1
91-9
2
92-9
3
93-9
4
94-9
5
95-9
6
96-9
7
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
US NJ
Projected employment change in New Jersey
254,100
-50,600
304,700
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
Total Nonfarm Service Providing
Goods ProducingE
mp
loym
en
t g
row
th
‘06 –
‘16
Projected employment change in United States
15,050
-732
15,782
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Total Nonfarm Service Providing
Goods Producing
Em
plo
ymen
t g
row
th ‘06 –
‘1
6 (
000s)
Projected growth in NJ and US by industry
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Constru
ction
Man
ufacturin
gTr
ade
Tran
sportat
ion
Utilitie
s
Inform
ation
Fina
nce a
nd Real E
state
Professio
nal and
Business S
ervice
s
Educ
ation
and H
ealth
Leisu
re an
d Hospital
ity
Other
Service
s
Public
Administ
ratio
n
NJ US
Goods Producing Industries
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
90-9
1
91-9
2
92-9
3
93-9
4
94-9
5
95-9
6
96-9
7
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
Annual
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Growth in Construction not enough to offset losses in
Manufacturing
-50,600
-62,500
11,800
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
Goods Producing
Manufacturing
Construction
Construction industry had been a steady source of jobs for last 15
years…until the downturn
-10.0-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.00.02.04.06.08.0
10.092
-93
93-9
4
94-9
5
95-9
6
96-9
7
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
30-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
Construction Construction of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Specialty Trade Contractors
An
nu
al
Perc
en
t C
han
ge
Selected industries make up the bulk of the decline, but
losses are widespread
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
Printing and RelatedSupport Mfg
Fabricated Metal Mfg
Paper Mfg
Computer andElectronic Product Mfg
Chemical Mfg
-62,500
-6,700-6,100-5,200-5,100-5,000
Pro
jecte
d E
mp
loym
en
t C
han
ge ‘06 –
‘16
Manufacturing
Service Providing Industries
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
90-9
1
91-9
2
92-9
3
93-9
4
94-9
5
95-9
6
96-9
7
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
Ann
ual G
row
th R
ate
2006 employment and projected growth by industry
super-sector
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Other Services
Financial Activities
Leisure and Hospitality
Public Administraion
Professional andBusiness
Education and Health
Trade, Transportation &Warehousing
2006 Employment Projected Growth
Information and Utilities are projected to decline by a combined 10,000 jobs, or roughly 9%
More than 90% of growth is projected to occur within these
three super-sectors
114,600
78,200
38,200
73,700
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Education andHealth Services
Professional andBusiness Services
Leisure andHospitality
Other ServiceSupersectors
Healthcare and Education has been only stable and reliable
source of new jobs
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
90-9
1
91-9
2
92-9
3
93-9
4
94-9
5
95-9
6
96-9
7
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
Health and Education Professional and Business ServicesLeisure and Hospitality
Healthcare will continue to produce the bulk of NJ’s
employment growth
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Actual Employment Projected Employment
High-paying occupations are prominent in these industries
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000Architectural,Engineering andRelated Services
Management ofCompanies andEnterprises
Management,Scientific andTechnical Consulting
Computer SystemsDesign
Pro
jecte
d E
mp
loym
en
t G
row
th ‘06 –
‘16
Professional and Business Services
78,200
6,0007,1009,50016,800
Occupational Highlights
6.0% Employment Growth, 2006-2016
132,100 Average Annual Job Openings
Roughly 7 of every 10 of these openings due to Replacement demand
Only Professional, Service and Management, Business and Financial
occupations will grow faster than average
-1,000,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000Pro
fess
iona
l
Serv
ice
Offi
ce/A
dmin
.
Sale
s
Mgm
t., B
us.,
Fin
.
Tra
ns./
Mat
.M
ovin
g
Pro
duct
ion
Con
stru
ctio
n
Inst
all.,
Mai
n.,
Rep
air
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Major Occupational Group
NJ avg.=6.0%
20
06
Em
plo
ym
ent
Pro
ject
ed G
row
th, 2
00
6-2
01
6
Professional and Service occupations will account for
most new jobs by 2016
-28,600
-4,200
6,500
9,100
10,100
16,200
33,000
110,800
111,600
-60,000 -20,000 20,000 60,000 100,000 140,000
Install., Main., Repair
Construction
Office/ Admin.
Sales
Mgmt., Bus., Fin.
Service
Professional
Trans./Material MovingProduction
Employment Growth 2006 - 2016
Most job opportunities are still result of replacement need
rather than growth
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Install., Main., Repair
Construction
Production
Trans./ Material Moving
Mgmt., Bus., Fin.
Sales
Office/ Admin.
Professional
Service
New Jobs Replacements
7,460
4,000
4,600
3,450
12,540
16,320
20,890
30,140
31,520
Jobs with higher education and training requirements will grow
faster than average
3.8
5.2
11.1
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
Total LowRequirements
TotalModerate
Requirements
Total HighRequirements
4.0
3.3
2.6
4.0
10.5
13.3
11.3
4.4
15.3
16.2
15.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Short-term OTJ Training
Moderate-term OTJ Training
Long-term OTJ Training
Work Exp. In related occ.
Postsecondary Vocational Training
Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Bachelor's or Higher + Work Exp.
Master's Degree
Doctoral Degree
First Professional Degree
Percent Growth, 2006 - 2016
Jobs requiring higher training and education often relate to
higher wages
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Network Systems andData Comm. Analysts
Comp. Systems Analysts
Accountants and Auditors
Elem. School Teachers,Exc. Spec. Ed.
Comp. Software Engs. -Applications
Registered Nurses
$82,700
$85,400
$74,000
$58,000
$89,600
$70,900
Employment Growth 2006 - 2016
6 of the top 25 occupations adding the most employment growth require higher education and training
Among fastest growing occupations, healthcare jobs
are prominent
0 10 20 30 40 50
Comp. Systems Analysts
Social and Human Service Assistants
Pharmacy Technicians
Dental Assistants
Personal Financial Advisors
Comp. Software Engs. - Applications
Personal and Home Care Aides
Network Systems and Data Comm. Analysts
Home Health Aides
Medical Assistants
Percent Growth 2006 - 2016
Among high wage, non-management jobs, 9 of 10 grow
faster than state average
0 10 20 30 40 50
Sales Reps., Whsl. & Mfg., Tech. & Sci. Products
Comp. Systems Analysts
Financial Analysts
Comp. Software Engs. - Applications
Management Analysts
Pharmacists
Comp. Software Engs. - Systems Software
Sec., Comm. And Fin. Sales Agents
Lawyers
Physicians and Surgeons
$84,100
$85,400
$89,100
$89,600
$90,600
$98,200
$102,500
$98,600
$120,100
$158,700
Percent Growth 2006 - 2016
Among top 10 jobs with most jobs lost, all have average wage less than the state
-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0
Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders
Cashiers
Work Processors and Typists
Telemarketers
Secretaries, Exc. Legal, Medical and Executive
Order Clerks
Laborers and Freight, Stock and Material Movers, Hand
File Clerks
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers
Packers and Packagers, Hand
Employment Decline 2006 - 2016
Fastest declining occupations list (%) still consists mostly of Production occupations
NEW JERSEY REGIONAL AND COUNTY DATA
Northern Region
BERGENESSEXHUDSO
N
MORRIS
PASSAIC
UNIONGenerally, these counties have large employment but grow at a slower rateCombined, this region accounts for over 45% of all NJ employment… geographically less than 15% of NJ areaProjected to have more than 58,000 annual average job openings, more than double any other region
Essex County
Third largest county in total employment, despite
small geographic size
Most employment in Transportation and Warehousing sector
among NJ counties with 30,650 in 2006
Air transportation industry, namely Newark
Liberty International, projected to add more
than 3,000 jobs, annual growth of almost 2%
Northwestern Region
SUSSEXWARREN
This two-county region is by far the smallest in the State in employment with 83,700 in 2006, accounting for only 2% of NJ employment despite accounting for over 10% of land areaProjected employment gains in Healthcare and Social Assistance would account for nearly 40% of all growth in this region
Sussex County
Half of total employment found within Healthcare, Trade, and Government sectors6th largest NJ county by area, but has 4th least employment in 20062nd fewest manufacturing jobs among NJ counties with only 2,100 in 2006…behind only Cape May
Central Region
HUNTERDON
MERCER
MIDDLESEX
SOMERSET
In 2006, more than one in five jobs (21.9%) found in Central region, nearly 900,000 in employmentRegion projected to outpace growth of the state and add about 60,000 more jobsMore than one-quarter of all employment in Government and Professional and Business services
Middlesex
CountyWith employment of 419,600 in 2006, Middlesex is the second largest county
in the state in employment, and will also add the second most jobs with 25,350
Largest Manufacturing sector among NJ
counties with employment of 42,800
in 2006, 30% of which is chemicalMore than 80,000
jobs in Professional and Business
services, most of any county
Coastal Region
MONMOUTHOCEAN
ATLANTICCAPE MAY
Retail trade and Accommodation and food services make up over 30% of all employment in Coastal regionMore than 90% of all employment in Service-providing industries, highest ratio among regions
Projected to be the fastest growing region, adding almost 48,000 jobs, or nearly 8%
Ocean County
With total growth of 10.2%, Ocean is projected to be the fastest growing county in the state, adding 16,200 jobsHealthcare and Social Assistance will continue to be the largest industry in Ocean, adding nearly 9,000 jobs for annual growth of 2.6%, and accounting for more than half of all job growth in Ocean
Southern Region
BURLINGTON
CAMDENCUMBERLAN
D
GLOUCESTER
SALEM
Projected to add 43,550 jobs through 2016, an increase of 6.9%Healthcare and Social Assistance industry alone will add 18,700 new jobs, over 40% of all growthTrade, Transportation and Utilities supersector, nearly one-quarter of Southern region employment, is projected to add nearly 5,000 jobs by 2016
Camden County
Largest county in Southern region, with employment of 220,800 in 2006, is projected to add 14,100 by 2016Government,
Healthcare and Social Assistance, and Retail
Trade, Camden’s three largest industries,
account for 43% of total employment
Healthcare and Social Assistance industry will
add 7,700 new jobs, more than triple any
other industry
Outlook Employment growth in NJ has slowed to
a near halt since the turn of the century, averaging only 0.2% annual growth through 2008
Many occupations with above-average wages are projected to grow faster than the state average
Automation and other technology is contributing to the reduction of lesser skilled occupations
Questions or Comments?
Contact Jason Timian
Call: 609-777-3635E-mail: [email protected]
www.nj.gov/labor
On the Web at: