newid hinsawdd ac affrica - climate change and africa - gareth wyn jones, machynlleth 04/04/14
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Newid Hinsawdd ac Affrica - Climate Change and Africa - Gareth Wyn Jones, Machynlleth 04/04/14TRANSCRIPT
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Newid Hinsawdd ac Affrica
Prosiect Maposda:
Management and Policy Options for Sustainable Development of Communal Rangelands in Southern Africa
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• Paulshoek, Namaqualand, De Affrica:
• Pentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, Botswana:
• Ha Lejone, Mynyddoedd Maloti, Lesotho [ger Argau Katsi]
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Paulshoef, Namaquland, De AffricaPentrefi Matsheng, Calahari, BotswanaHa Lajone, ger argau Katsi, Mynyddoedd Maloti, Lethoso
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Botswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villagesBotswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villages
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Botswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villagesBotswana – Pentrefi Matsheng villages
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Lesotho – Lesotho – Pelaneng-Bokong RMAPelaneng-Bokong RMA
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-2.5-2
-1.5-1
-0.50
0.51
1.5
22.5
19
30
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SP
I
Standardized Precipitation Index for Lesotho from 1930-1999
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R = 0.624
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Standarized Precipitation Index (SPI). Regional Serie
So
uth
ern
Osc
illa
tion
Ind
ex
(SO
I)
A regression of SPI values for Lesotho against the Southern Oscillation Index
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Rainfall distribution maps for Lesotho during wet and dry
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South Africa - PaulshoekSouth Africa - Paulshoek
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South Africa - PaulshoekSouth Africa - Paulshoek
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Rainfall: 1999-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
1999: (199mm)2000: 158mm2001: 207mm2002: 140mm2003: 118mm2004:139mmAve: 152mm
•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation
•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek record daily rainfall amounts
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Total number of animals in Paulshoek: 1971-2004
y = -0.3888x + 198.01
R2 = 0.0036y = -42.97x + 4187.5
R2 = 0.1202
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Nu
mb
er o
f an
imal
s
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Rai
nfa
ll (
mm
)
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…the study of periodic biotic events in relation to climatic and other factors
Phenology is…
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Agriculture: timing of flower and fruit production influences crop yield
Ecology: influence on pollination and seed dispersal (population dynamics, competition, speciation)
Rangeland management: timing of grazing influences rangeland composition
Global change: indicators of changing climates (e.g. emergence date of first blue bells)
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Rainfall: highly variable from year to year particularly in terms of month of precipitation
Growth: influenced quite strongly by rainfall – most plants respond to rain WHENEVER it falls and drop leaves when it doesn’t rain
Implications: Resting veld during October could influence seed production and rangeland composition
Flowering: much less variable than growth with a peaks around October – Severe drought reduces flower production
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The impact of grazing on flower production
Cheiridopsis denticulata
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Rainfall: 1999-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rai
nfa
ll (m
m)
1999: (199mm)2000: 158mm2001: 207mm2002: 140mm2003: 118mm2004:139mmAve: 152mm
•Automatic rain gauge (since May 1999) measures hourly solar radiation, temperature, RH, wind speed, wind direction, precipitation
•13 manually serviced rain gauges scattered throughout Paulshoek record daily rainfall amounts
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
24 July 1998 06 December1999
19 April 2001 01 September2002
14 January 2004
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Total Deaths
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004
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Total Births
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004
Total Sales
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
24 July 1998 06 December 1999 19 April 2001 01 September 2002 14 January 2004