nfi odce performance attribution webinar - ncreif · webinar fourth quarter 2017 review. ncreif...

NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar

NFI‐ODCE Performance Attribution Webinar

Fourth Quarter 2017 Review


Panelist Overview

Joe D’AlessandroNCREIF Director of Real Estate Performance Measurement

Tim BollaVice President, Bentall Kennedy’s ODCE Fund

Fund analytics and reporting


Total Returns by Asset ClassComparison as of December 31, 2017

Source: FRED (BofA Merrill Lynch)

2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5%

6.6%

1.2%

7.6% 7.8% 7.4%

8.9%

6.9%

5.2%

22.0%

7.4%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesValue‐weight

NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesEqual‐weight

NFI‐Daily Priced Equal‐weight

(est. gross of fees)

Leveraged NPI NPI NAREIT Equity REIT Index S&P 500Index

US Corporate BBB Bonds

4Q 2017 2017

3


Total Returns by Asset ClassLast Three Year Annual Returns

Source: FRED (BofA Merrill Lynch)

15.0% 15.2%

11.3%

20.7%

13.5%

3.2%

1.4%

‐2.2%

8.8% 9.3%7.7%

10.8%9.2%

8.5%

12.0%

8.1%7.6% 7.8% 7.4%8.9%

6.9%5.2%

22.0%

7.4%

‐5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesValue‐weight

NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesEqual‐weight

NFI‐Daily Priced Equal‐weight

(est. gross of fees)

Leveraged NPI NPI NAREIT Equity REIT Index S&P 500Index

US Corporate BBB Bonds

2015 2016 2017

4


Quarterly Attribution Impact Trendsfor the one year ended December 31, 2017

Page 4 of Report

5


Quarterly Total Returns by Property Type

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

20171 20172 20173 20174

ODCE APT IND OFF RET Other

6


One Year Total Returns by Property TypeComparison as of December 31, 2017

7.2%

5.8%

4.2%

13.8%

6.6%

5.6%

7.5%6.9%

5.4% 5.3%

13.3%

6.6%5.6%

8.2%

6.9%6.2%

4.9%

13.1%

6.0% 5.7%

9.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

All Properties Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail Other

ODCE, at ownership share ODCE, 100% ownership NPI, 100% ownership

7


Property Performance Details

8

Page 6 of Report

Page 7 of Report


Quarterly Total Allocations by Property Type

9

25.3% 25.4% 25.2% 24.9% 25.1%

13.3% 13.3% 13.6% 14.0% 14.7%

38.1% 38.0% 37.9% 38.0% 37.4%

19.4% 19.4% 19.2% 19.2% 19.0%

2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%2.8%1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

20164 20171 20172 20173 20174

APT IND OFF RET Other HOT & Land


One Year Total Returns by Property TypeComparison as of December 31, 2017

Page 4 of Report

10


Quarterly Leverage Impact Trendsfor the one year ended December 31, 2017

Page 4 of Report

Change in 10yr Treasury Rate ‐.05% ‐.09% +.02% +.07%

End of Qtr 10yr Treasury Rate: 2.45 2.40 2.31 2.33 2.40

11


Acquisition Trends

$4.4 $5.0$1.8

$2.3$3.2

$2.6

$10.5 $8.9

$2.8

$4.4 $5.5

$1.4

$0.7$0.4

$0.1

$0.2$0.4

$0.4

$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

2015 2016 2017

A I O R X L

MV_Legal PropertYear A I O R X L Total2015 $4.4 $2.3 $10.5 $4.4 $0.7 $0.2 $22.42016 $5.0 $3.2 $8.9 $5.5 $0.4 $0.4 $23.42017 $1.8 $2.6 $2.8 $1.4 $0.1 $0.4 $9.1Total $11.2 $8.1 $22.2 $11.3 $1.2 $1.1 $55.0

$ billions

12

Total Return


Disposition Trends

$2.4 $3.1 $3.8$1.0

$1.9 $1.0

$5.1

$8.3

$4.5

$0.5

$0.9

$1.5$0.1

$0.0

$0.1$0.6

$0.1

$0.3

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

2015 2016 2017

A I O R X L HTotal Return

Year A I O R X L H Total2015 $2.4 $1.0 $5.1 $0.5 $0.1 $0.1 $0.6 $9.82016 $3.1 $1.9 $8.3 $0.9 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $14.52017 $3.8 $1.0 $4.5 $1.5 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $11.2Total $9.2 $4.0 $17.9 $2.9 $0.3 $0.2 $1.1 $35.5

$ billions

13


Net Yearly Activity (Acq – Dispo)

14

‐$3.0

‐$2.0

‐$1.0

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

2015 2016 2017

A I O R X L H

Net Activity A I O R X L H Total2015 $2.0 $1.2 $5.3 $3.9 $0.6 $0.1 ‐$0.6 $12.62016 $1.9 $1.3 $0.6 $4.6 $0.3 $0.4 ‐$0.1 $9.02017 ‐$1.9 $1.6 ‐$1.7 ‐$0.1 ‐$0.1 $0.4 ‐$0.3 ‐$2.1Total $2.0 $4.1 $4.2 $8.3 $0.9 $0.9 $53.9 $19.5


This concludes today’s Webinar. Thank you for joining us!Upcoming Events:

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nfi odce performance attribution webinar - ncreif · webinar fourth quarter 2017 review. ncreif...

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