NGOs: The Bad News World Trade Centers, NYC

Pentagon

Anthrax Cases Fall 2001

Aum Shinrikyo Chemical Weapon Attack March 20, 1995

Asahara Shoko

Oklahoma City, April 19, 1995

A New World?Globalization• Ease of travel• Ease of global finance• Communications revolution States

– Ability to communicate lose

globally monopoly

• Information revolution on

– Ability to share large influence

amounts of information with and

anyone, anywhere, anytime violence

– Global spread of technology

Defining Terrorism

1. Political Agenda2. Cause pain and fear: violence to

further political agenda3. Targeting civilians4. Publicity5. Non-state actors*

The Terrorist “Logic”

Terrorist Violence

Causes pain and fear

in targeted audience

Publicizes a political

agenda and terrorist’s demands

Public demands

action that will end

terrorist attacks

Change in

gov’t policy

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004• Spain supports US in Iraq• People’s Party in favor of Spanish

intervention• Socialist Worker’s Party wants to withdraw;• AQ warns Spain to leave or face reprisal; • Parliamentary elections on 3/14; • PP favored

Madrid Bombing, March 11, 2004

The “Logic” at Work: Spain 2004

March 11 attack on

train station;200 killed;

1400 wounded

Voters fear more

reprisals

Debate on Spanish

Iraq policy takes

center stage

Electoral Surprise;PP loses; Worker’s Party wins

New gov’tled by

Worker’s Party

Changes policy

Terrorism is not Foreign

Terrorism is Not New: King David Hotel 1946

Al-Qaeda as an NGO• 1996 fatwa• 1998 fatwa• Al-Qaeda Training Manual (f

rom Dept. of Justice)• Bin-Laden videos• Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery• Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (Abu Musab al-Suri)• Militant Ideology Atlas(Combating Terrorism Center)

• Osama bin-Laden

AQAM Ideology

• Salafists (pure Islam)• Anti-American• Anti-western• Anti-colonial (resistance or defense)• End separation of Church and state• No pluralism in Islam• Anti-nation-state– Rebuild the Caliphate

• Anti-Democracy

Origins of AQ• Iranian Revolution• (1978-1979)• provides inspiration foreign fighters• formation go home,• of Afghan mujahadin form new groups• or join existing • Pakistan military groups, create a

allies with radical global terrorIslamic groups (1977-79) networkprovides sanctuary

• Ideological legacy USSR invades US, China, Pakistan Soviets • of radical Islamic Afghanistan Egypt, Saudi Arabia, withdraw • thought 1979 and others funding, 1989• provides ideology supplying, and training• and inspiration mujahadin and jihadis

• OBL and others recruit• Saudi funded religious schools volunteers al-Qaeda (global)• (madrassas) in Middle East from madrassas Abu Sayyaf (Phil.)• and Asia (1970s-1980s) in M. E. and Asia GIA (Algeria)• provides recruits with ideology (foreign fighters HAMAS

or jihadis) Islamic Jihad IMU

• Jemaah Islamiah PIJBosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir…

Time

Politics, not Religion

• Important:• This does not represent the average Muslim• Timothy McVeigh was not the average

Christian• AQ is a far greater threat to Muslims than to

Americans• This is a political movement that uses a

twisted version of Islam

Geography of Islam

Non-Middle eastern states• Indonesia 225 m• Pakistan 170 m• Bangladesh 150 m• India 140 m• Turkey 76 m• Nigeria 75 m (of 150 m)• Afghanistan 31 m• Sudan 28 (of 41 m)

Middle Eastern states• Egypt 70 m• Iran 65 m• Algeria 32 m• Morocco 32 m• Iraq 25 m• Saudi Arabia 22 m• Syria 16.2 m• Jordan 4.6

Explaining the Growth of Extremist IdeasPolitical Factors *Technological factorsAuthoritarian government advances in communicationCorrupt government computers for info storageLack of civil rights; no democracy internet and e-mailLack of human rights; no individual freedoms ease of travelLiberal and moderate ideas crushed ease of global financial transactionsRadical ideas crushed (Egypt) advantages of networksRadical ideas encouraged (Saudi Arabia) globalizationPrison torture SOPControlled press spreads ruling ideologyAnti-West and anti-US Social FactorsColonialism in past *Rapid economic changeStrong religious traditions *Population growthPan-Islamic ideas Lack of social and economic mobilityPan-Arab ideas *More university education; lack of jobs*Failures of secular nationalism (Syria, Iraq) *Generation with a lack of identityNo outlet for moderate dissent or debate *Expectations of success; lack of successIsraeli-Palestinian conflict *Expectations of change; lack of change

Economic FactorsPovertySmall wealthy elite *Geopolitical Factors*Expectations of wealth through oil Rapid wealth creation in Middle East *Rising population Iranian revolution*Massive underemployment GlobalizationSocialist economies Soviet Invasion of AfghanistanClosed economies Collapse of Cold War*Knowledge of wealth in other societies Instability of shift to post-cold war world

*Temporal Factors: These variables explain why events happened when they did. Many people ask why radical Islam developed, but we need to ask why it developed and why it developed when it developed.

Growth of extremist ideas