nhom 1_van dung cac tieu chuan danh gia dadt trong thuc tien

8/2/2019 Nhom 1_Van Dung Cac Tieu Chuan Danh Gia DADT Trong Thuc Tien

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TRNG I HC KINH T TP HCMKHOA SAU I HC

TIU LUN TI CHNH DOANH NGHIP

TI:

VN DNG CC TIU CHUNNH GI D N U T TRONG

THC TIN

Nhm thc hin : Nhm 1Lp : NH m 2 K18

TP HCM nm 2009


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DANH SCH NHM 1 T Ngc Luynh a

inh Th Thy Hng

Nguyn Thanh Ha

Bi Th Minh Lin

Nguyn Thanh T

Hong Th Ngc Vy

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PHN I :

CC TIU CHUN NH GI D N U T

u t l s hy sinh gi tr chc chn thi im hin ti i ly kh nng khng chc chngi tr trong tng lai. Vy lm th no bn c th bit c mnh c nn u t hay khng? C cctiu chun ph bin sau y thng c s dng trong vic nh gi v la chn cc d n u t:

1) TIU CHUN HIN GI THUN THE NET PRESENT VALUE NPV:

Hin gi thun (NPV) ca mt d n l gi tr ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai c quy vhin gi tr i vn u t d kin ban u ca d n.

NPV = Ga tr hin ti ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai u t ban u

Cng thc tnh NPV:

= +

+=+

+++

++

+=n

tt

tn

n

rCFI

rCF

rCF

rCFINPV

12

21

)1()1(......

)1()1(

Trong :

I : u t ban u

CFt : dng tin thi k t

n : i sng kinh t ca d n

r : li sut chit khu ca d n

Vic tnh ton NPV rt hu ch khi chun b ngn sch cho mt d n, bng php tnh ny nhu t c th nh gi liu tng gi tr hin ti dng doanh thu d kin trong tng lai c b p ni chiph ban u hay khng. Vi mt d n c th, nu NPV dng th nh u t nn tin hnh d n vngc li khi NPV m. Tuy nhin trong trng hp c hai s la chn u t loi tr ln nhau tr ln thnh u t cn phi xt n chi ph c hi na, lc ny, d n no c NPV cao nht s c tin hnh.

V d: Mt doanh nghip d nh a ra th trng mt dng sn phm mi. Chi ph ban u sn xut sn phm ny (tin mua sm my mc, thit b, chi ph o to nhn vin...) l $100,000. Ccchi ph qun l d kin l $5,000/nm. Doanh thu t sn phm ny d kin l $30,000/nm. T sut hon

vn l 10%. Sn phm ny d kin s bn trong vng 6 nm.Theo cng thc trn ta c th tnh ton gi tr hin ti thun ca d n l:NPV = -100.000 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%) + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)2 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)3

+ (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)4 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)5 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)6 = $8881.52 >0

=> Vy nn tin hnh sn xut loi sn phm mi ny.

Vic tnh ton NPV ph thuc rt nhiu vo tham s t l chit khu r, mi nh u t li c cch

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nh gi r ring ca mnh. Ngoi ra dng doanh thu, dng chi ph khng ng u, gi tr thanh l ti snc nh gia cc nm cng s lm cho vic tnh ton tr nn phc tp hn nhiu.

Li sut chit khu c s dng nh gi gi tr hin ti ca dng tin d kin trong tng laiphi tng xng vi mc ri ro ca d n. Vn quan trng m chng ta cn bit l li sut chitkhu phi tnh thm mt phn ri ro thch hp. Tht vy khi ri ro ca mt d n bng vi ri ro ca mtcng ty, v nh th phng thc ti tr ca cng ty cng chnh l ngun vn ban u ca d n, trongtrng hp ny li sut chit khu ph hp cng chnh l chi ph s dng ngun vn trung bnh ca cngty.

Vic tnh ton NPV rt hu ch khi chun b ngn sch cho mt d n, bng php tnh ny nhu t c th nh gi liu tng gi tr hin ti dng doanh thu d kin trong tng lai c b p ni chiph ban u hay khng. Vi mt d n c th, nu NPV dng th nh u t nn tin hnh d n vngc li khi NPV m. Tuy nhin trong trng hp c hai s la chn u t loi tr ln nhau tr ln thnh u t cn phi xt n chi ph c hi na, lc ny, d n no c NPV cao nht s c tin hnh.

ng dng tiu chun NPV trong thm nh d n u t:

i vi cc D n u t c lp:

- NPV > 0 : Chp nhn d n.

- NPV < 0 :> Loi b d n.

- NPV = 0 : Ty thuc vo quan im ca nh u t.

i vi cc D n loi tr ln nhau:

- Chng ta s chn d n no c NPV ln nht v NPV > 0.

u v nhc im ca tiu chun NPV:

u im:

- Tiu chun NPV ghi nhn tin c gi tr theo thi gian.

- NPV ch da trn duy nht hai d kin: dng tin c d on t d n v chi ph c hi cang vn, khng ph thuc vo ch quan ca nh qun l.

- V cc gi tr hin ti u c o lng bi mt ng ngy hm nay nn c th cng dn :NPV(A+B) = NPV(A) + NPV(B).

Nhc im:

- Tiu chun NPV khng th a ra kt qu la chn khi cc D n khng ng nht v mtthi gian cng nh th hn u tin trong vic la chn cc D n u t khi ngun vn caDoanh nghip b gii hn.

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2. TIU CHUN H S HON VN NI B - IRR (INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN).

H s hon vn ni b l mc li sut m d n c th t c m bo cho tng cc khon thuca d n cn bng vi cc khon chi thi gian mt bng hin ti. Hay ni cch khc IRR ca mt Dn l li sut chit khu m ti NPV = 0.

y chnh l im ha vn v li sut ca D n, l ranh gii nh u t quyt nh la chn

D n. tnh IRR c nhiu phng php nhng tnh IRR theo phng php ni suy thng c s

dng v vic tnh ton khng phc tp, chnh xc hp l c th chp nhn c.

Cng thc tnh IRR:

//

)(21

1121

NPVNPV

NPVrrrIRR

+

+= (1)

Trong :

IRR: H s hon vn ni b cn ni suy (%)

r1: T sut chit khu thp hn ti NPV1 > 0 gn st 0 nht

r2: T sut chit khu cao hn ti NPV2 < 0 gn st 0 nht.

NPV: Gi tr hin ti thc

=> IRR cn tm (ng vi NPV = 0) s nm gia r1 v r2

ng dng tiu chun IRR vo thm nh D n u t:

Trng hp cc D n c lp ln nhau, d n no c:

- IRR > r : Chp nhn d n.

- IRR < r : Loi b d n.

Trng hp cc d n loi tr nhau:

- Chn IRR ln nht v

- IRR > r

u v nhc im ca tiu chun IRR:

u im

- Bit c khong chnh lch gia t sut thu nhp ni b ca d n u t v chi ph s dngvn ca doanh nghip. y l mt tiu chun an ton cho php nh gi kh nng b p chiph s dng vn ca d n u t so vi tnh ri ro ca n.

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Nhc im

- Cm by th nht: Vay hay cho vay?

- Cm by th hai: IRR a tr.

- Cm by th ba: Nhiu d n loi tr ln nhau.

- Cm by th t: Li sut ngn hn c th khc trong di hn.

Cc trng hp IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng:

- Khng tn ti IRR thc: trng hp ny ng cong NPV ca d n nm trong dyNPV < 0 hoc dy NPV > 0 v khng bao gi ct trc honh, do khng tn ti li sutchit khu m ti NPV bng 0, o , khng tn ti IRR.

- IRR a tr: Mt vi d n c hai mc chit khu m ti lm cho NPV = 0. Khi dngtin ca d n i du t m sang dng v quay tr li m, c th tn ti 2 IRR. S IRRca mt d n khng bnh thng bng vi s ln i du ca dng tin d n. Trong

trng hp ny, ngi nh gi d n khng bit s dng IRR no nh gi chnh xcd n.

3. TIU CHUN CH S SINH LI ( THE PROFITABILITY INDEX - PI).

Ch s sinh li PI c nh ngha nh l gi tr hin ti ca dng tin so vi chi ph u t ban u.

PI =I

PV

PI =

I

INPV+

Trong : PV: Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin

I: u t ban u

PI quyt inh chp nhn hay loi b d n, theo xp hng cc d n theo ch s PI t cao n thp,chn d n theo th t xp hng cho n khi no s dng ht ngun vn.

Trng hp cc d n c lp ln nhau

PI > 1: chp nhn d n

PI < 1 : lai b d n

Trng hp cc d n loi tr ln nhau

PI > 1 v PI max : chn d n.

* u nhc im ca tiu chun PI

- u im: khc phc hn ch ca tiu chun NPV trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn trong mt

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thi k.

-Nhc im: PI khng hon ton c tc dng trong trng hp ngun vn cng ng thi b gii hnti bt k mt nm no trong sut khang thi gian hot ng ca d n

PI vn c nhc im so vi NPV: v ging nh IRR, PI khng gii thch c mt cchtrc tip s khc nhau v quy m ca d n.

4. TIU CHUN THI GIAN THU HI VN (THE PAYBACK PERIOD - PP).

Thi gian thu hi vn ca d n l khong thi gian thu hi li vn u t ban u. Xt theo tiu chunnh gi thu hi vn, thi gian thu hi vn cng ngn d n u t cng tt.

Cc bc tin hnh:

- Thit lp trc thi gian thu hi vn ti a c th chp nhn c . (thi gian thu hi vnchun)

- D n no thi gian thu hi vn di hn thi gian thu hi vn chun s b t chi v ngc

li.* u nhc im ca tiu chun PP

-Nhc im: Tt c dng tin pht sinh sau thi gian thu hi vn b b qua hon ton.

Tiu chun PP c th dn n sai lm v thm ch l i khi c nhng quytnh ng ngn.

B qua kt cu ca dng tin theo thi gian trong thi k hon vn.

- u im: Mt d n c thi gian thu hi vn nhanh, s hn ch c nhiu ri ro v ngc li

Tiu chun PP nn c kt hp vi cc tiu chun khc nh NPV hoc IRR khi thmnh d n

Tiu chun PP n gin v d s dng

5. TIU CHUN THI GIAN THU HI VN C CHIT KHU (THE DISCOUNTEDPAYBACK PERIOD - DPP).

Phng php thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu DPP l khong thi gian cn thit tng hingi tt c dng thu nhp trong tng lai ca d n va b p s vn u t b ra ban u.

Mt trong nhng khim khuyt ca tiu chun PP l n b qua tnh cht gi tr tin t theo thigianv tiu chun DPP s khc phc nhc im ny.

u nhc im ca tiu chun thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu - DPP

Tiu chun thi gian thu hi vn cho nh u t bit c thi gian thu hi vn thc s ca d n(c tnh n yu t gi tr tin t theo thi gian).

Khi gii hn thi gian thu hi vn thch hp c xc nh th dng tin pht sinh pha sau n

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s b b qua.

Mt d n c thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu ngn hn ca mt d n khc nhng iu nykhng c ngha l d n ny c NPV ln hn

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PHN 2:

VN DNG CC TIU CHUN NH GI D N U T

TRONG THC TIN

1/ nh gi d n u t trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn

Trong trng hp cng ty khng sn sng thc hin tt c nhng c hi u t v gii hn

ngun vn cng v gii hn ngun vn mm, ngha l nhu cu vn ln hn ngun vn c sn

C hai trng hp trn qui lut cn bn ca NPV khng p dng c, do phi b sung mt s

cch thc ph thuc vo ngun vn b gii hn trong 1 nm hay nhiu nm.

Ngun vn b gii hn trong mt k:Dng ch tiu PI nh gi, theo xp hng cc d n theo ch s PI, chn theo th t sp

hng cho n khi no s dng ht ngun vn.

V d: Mt cng ty khng c kh nng vn u t nhiu hn 500 triu ng trong nm hin

hnh

D nVn u t ban u

(triu ng)NPV (triu ng)

A

B

C

D

E

100.000

150.000

140.000

210.000

180.000

15.000

29.000

31.000

22.000

36.000

Cch gii quyt: Xp hng cc d n theo ch s PI nh sau

D n PI Xp hng

A

B

C

D

E

1,15

1,19

1,22

1,10

1,20

4

3

1

5

2

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Cng ty s chn theo th t xp hng PI cho n khi no s dng ht ngun vn

D n Vn u t (triu ng)

C

E

B3/10A

140.000

180.000

150.00030.000

500.000

Ngun vn b gii hn trong nhiu k.

S dng phng php qui hch tuyn tnh gii quyt cc phc tp trong thc t, tm gi tr ti

a ca hm s mc tiu cho nhng gii hn khc nhau. Ngoi ra chng ta phi tm ra t trng ca

mi d n s c chn ti a ha NPV.

D n Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3NPV

(r=10%)W

X

Y

Z

-70

----

-80

---

-20

-90

10

-50

60

60

60

30

60

50

30

30

6,44

5,30

1,18

1,86

Tm mt danh mc u t trong kt hp bn d n sao cho tng NPV l cao nht vi ngun vn b

gii hn nm 0 v nm 1.

Gi w, x, y v z l t trng vn u t ln lt vo bn d n W, X,Y v Z, chng ta s tm gi tr cc

i ca NPV.

NPV = 6,44w + 5,30x + 1,18y + 1,86z tin ti max

Vi:

70w + 80y 100 (ngha l tng vn u t vo d n W, Y nm 0 phi b hn hoc bng 100)

20w + 90x 10y + 50z 100 (ngha l tng vn u t vo cc d n nm 1 phi b hn hocbng 100)

0 w,x,y,z 1

Cc phng php ca qui hoch tuyn tnh s cho ta nhng kt qu sau:

- Gi tr NPV ti a

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- Phi chi cho vn u t tng thm bao nhiu gia tng NPV

- Cn bao nhiu ngun vn mi nm trc khi s thiu ht vn u t khng cn mt gii hn

v ngun vn.

2/ Thi im ti u u t d n

Trong thc t, khi mt d n c NPV dng khng c ngha l thc hin d n ngay by gi l

tt nht. D n ny c th c gi tr hn nu c thc hin trong tng lai.

Tng t nh th, mt d n c NPV m c th tr thnh c hi ng gi nu chng ta ch i

trong mt thi gian.

Bt k d n no u c hai la chn loi tr nhau, l thc hin by gi hoc u t sau ny

u tin, xc nh thi im la chn (t) thc hin u t v tnh gi tr tng lai thun ti

mi thi im.

Sau , tm la chn no s lm tng nhiu nht gi tr hin ti ca cng ty bng 2 bc: a gi tr tng lai thun ti tng thi im (t) v hin gi (chia cho (1+r)t)

Chn gi tr t no em n NPV ti a. chnh l thi im ti u u t.

C th chn thi im ti u u t thng qua tc tng ca gi tr tng lai thun v so

snh vi li sut chit khu.

Th d, bn s hu mt khu rng trng cy ly g. khai thc g, bn phi u t lm ng

v cc phng tin khc vn chuyn g. Cng i lu th bn phi u t cng nhiu nhng gi g

v s lng g khai thc c s tng theo thi gian.Gi tr thun ca g khai thc c cc thi im khc nhau nh sau:

Nm khai thc 0 1 2 3 4 5

Gi tr tng lai thun(ngn la

50 64.4 77.5 89.4 100 109.4

Thay i trong gi tr nmtrc (%)

+ 28.8 + 20.3 + 15.4 + 11.9 9.4

NPV nu khai thc trong nm 1 l 58.500 la Gi tr hin ti thun (ti t=0) vi li sut chit khu 10% cho cc thi im khc nhau nh sau:

Nm khai thc 0 1 2 3 4 5

NPV (ngn ) 50 58.8 64.0 67.2 68.3 67.9

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Thi im ti u nht khai thc g l 4 nm v lc ny NPVcao nht. Trc nm 4, tc tng trng ca gi tr tng lai thun hn10% (li sut chit khu) v th

vic ch i s em li gi tr tng thm. Sau nm th 4, gi tr tng lai thun vn tng nhngdi 10% nn vic tr hon khng hiu qu.

3/ Cc d n u t khng ng nht v thi gian

Phng php dng tin thay th

- Khi cc d n c lp nhau, s ng nht v mt thi gian khng quan trng, bi v mi d

n c phn tch ring v b qua dng tin ca cc d n khc., do vic chp nhn hay

loi b d n tng i n gin.

- Khi cc d n c s loi tr ln nhau, s khng ng nht v mt thi gian ca cc d n phi

c xem xt, khi so snh cc d n khng ng nht nhau v mt thi gian, i khi phi ko

di khong thi gian d kin n im xa hn na trong tng lai. Phng n no c NPV

cao nht s c chn.

To ra mt (hoc nhiu) d n c dng tin thay th cho cc d n ban u sao cho dng tin

ca cc d n thay th mang tnh cht ng nht v thi gian.

V d: xem xt 2 d n loi tr ln nhau sau :

MY 0 1 2 3 4 NPV (r =10%)

A1 - 1000 900 900 - - 562

A2 - 1500 685 685 685 685 671

o Cng ty cn phi thay mt trong hai my A1 hoc A2 trong sut chu k 4 nm.

o Trong trng hp ny, s so snh NPV ca my A1 v A2 l khng thch hp.

o Gi s rng cng ty c th mua my A1 khc cui nm th 2 (d n ny gi l A1) v dng

tin ca n cng ging nh A1.

o So snh NPV ca my A2 vi mt dy cc my A1 lin tip l ph hp hn

MY 0 1 2 3 4 NPV (r =10%)

A1 - 1000 900 900 - - 562

A1 - - - 1000 900 900 464

A1 + A1 - 1000 900 - 100 900 900 1026A2 - 1500 685 685 685 685 671

Phng php chui tin t u thay th hng nm EA: Phng php ny bt ngun t cch12


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tip cn chi ph tng ng hng nm, nhng li b qua khi nim chi ph s dng vn , tc b

qua yu t gi tr tin t theo thi gian.

Chui tin t thay th u hng nm c th doc hiu nh l chui tin t m nu c tip tc

sut vng i ca mt ti sn n s c NPV ging nh ti sn ..

NPV=

)1( r

EA

+

+ 2)1( r

EA

+

+..+ nr

EA

)1( +

EA =),( nrPVFA

NPV

Nh vy, cch xp loi EA ph din li ch ca tng d n trn cn bn mi nm, v

nh th d n no c thu nhp mi nm ln nht ( hoc chi ph hot ng hng nm b nht) s

c chn bt k s khng ng nht v mt thii gian ca cc d n.

Ti sn Thi gian NPV (r= 10%) EA (r=10%)

My A1 2 562 324My A2 4 671 212

EA 1 = $3247355,1

562

)2%,10(

1==

PVFA

NPVA

EA 2= $2121699,3

671

)2%,10(

2==

PVFA

NPVA

Vy chng ta s chn my A1 c EA ln nht.

4/ Quyt nh khi no nn thay th thit b hin hu

Trong trng hp trc, i sng ca mi loi my c xem nh c nh. Trong thc t,

thi im thay th thit b phn nh mt qu trnh xem xt v mt kinh t ca d n hn l do h

hng v k thut. Chng ta phi quyt nh khi no nn thay th thit b ch thit b t khi no

quyt nh dm chng ta.

y l mt vn ph bin trong thc t. Bn ang s dng mt thit b c d kin to ra

mt dng tin vo rng l 4.000$ trong nm sp n v 4.000$ trong nm tip theo sau . Sau

n s cht. Bn c th thay n ngay by gi bng mt thit b mi c gi 15.000$ nhng hiu qu

hn nhiu v s mang li dng tin vo l 8.000$ mi nm trong vng 3 nm. Bn mun bit liu

bn nn thay th ngay by gi hay ch i thm mt nm na.

Chng ta c th tnh NPV ca thit b mi v cng c th tnh dng tin tng ng

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hng nm EA. iu ny c ngha l chui tin t u ba nm c NPV tng t.

Dng tinCo C1 C2 C3 NPV vi li sut chit khu 6%

(ngn la)Thit b mi -15 +8 +8 +8 6,38Chui tin t 3 nm

tng ng

0 +2,387 +2,387 +2,387 6,38

Ni cch khc, dng tin ca thit b mi bng vi mt chui tin t 2.387$ mi nm. V

th chng ta c th hi thi im no chng ta mun thay th thit b c bng mt thit b mi c

th to ra 2.387$ mt nm. Khi cu hi c t theo cch ny, cu tr li r rng. Nu thit b

c c th to ra dng tin 4.000$ mt nm th ai li mun thay th n bng mt thit b mi ch

mang li 2.387$ mt nm.

Tnh thm gi tr thanh l vo tnh ton ny l mt vic n gin. Gi s l gi tr thanh l

ca thit b c hin ti l 8.000$ v trong nm ti l 7.000$. Chng ta hy xem mnh s c gkhi ch i v bn thit b trong nm ti. Mt mt, chng ta c c 7.000$ nhng mt gi tr

thanh l hin ti cng vi li nhun mt nm trn s tin . l 8.000 x 1,06=8.480$. Li rng

ca bn l 8.480$-7.000$=1.480$. Khon tin ny ch c b p mt phn li nhun kinh

doanh. Bn cha nn thay th.

5/ Gi phi tr ca vic tn dng ti sn hin hu cho d n mi

Cng ty no cng phi i ph vi cc phng n s dng ti sn. Cc thit b ngy nay

rt hin i nn ban gim c thng khuyn khch cc b phn s dng ht cng sut ca ccthit b ny. Tuy nhin, n mt lc no , thit b s khng p ng c cc mc tiu ban u

ca ban gim c. Do , cc b phn buc phi dng ngay vic s dng m ban gim c

khuyn khch lc u hoc phi u t vo ti sn mi sm hn vi nm so vi d kin. V d

nh khuyn khch tn dng ht cng sut ca xe a rt cng nhn, cc cng ty thng phi

tng ca a n v do phi mua sm xe mi trc thi hn d kin. Cc vn nh th cn

phi d kin ht trong qu trnh hoch nh ngn sch vn.

Gi s chng ta c mt s d n u t mi v ban gim c c nh tn dng cc my

vi tnh hin hu m cng ty ang c cho d n mi ny. Chnh v th tui th ca my vi tnh hin

hu ny gim t 5 nm xung cn 4 nm v i hi phi thay th my vi tnh mi. My vi tnh

mi ny c i sng kinh t 5 nm, hin gi ca chi ph mua sm v vn hnh l 500.000$, li

sut chit khu l 6%.

Chng ta bt u bng vic chuyn 500.000$ hin gi ca chi ph mua sm vn hnh ca

my vi tnh sang chi ph tng ng hng nm l 118.700$ trong 5 nm. Nu chng ta thc hin

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d n mi th chui ch ph bt u vo nm 4, nu chng ta khng thc hin d n mi chui chi

ph bt u vo nm 5. D n mi, v th to ra mt chi ph tng thm l 118.700$ vo nm 4 vi

hin gi l 118.700/(1,06)4 = 94.000$. Chi ph ny phi c tnh vo dng tin ca d n. Khi

chng ta nhn ra iu ny, NPV ca d n c th m. Nu nh vy, chng ta cn phi kim tra

xem liu thc hin d n ngay by gi c ng gi hay khng.

6/ Nhn t thi v

Mt trng hp m ngi ta thng qun l khi thit b cn thit sn xut ra cc sn phm

c nhu cu thay i. Hy xem xt vn sau y: Mt cng ty hin ang vn hnh hai thit b,

mi thit b c cng sut 1.000 sn phm mt nm. Chng c i sng khng xc nh v khng

c gi tr thanh l v v th ch c chi ph hot ng l 2$/sn phm. Gi nh y l mt cng ty

mang tnh thi v v sn phm d b h hng. Trong sut ma thu v ma ng khi nhu cu cao,

mi thit b sn xut ht cng sut. Trong sut ma xun v ma h mi thit b ch hot ng vi

50% cng sut. Nu li sut chit khu l 10% v thit b c s dng mi mi th gi tr hin tica chi ph l 30.000$.

Hai thit b cSn lng hng nm mi thit b 750 sn phmChi ph hot ng hng nm mi thit b 2 x 750 = 1.500$PV ca tng chi ph hot ng mi thit b 1.500/0,1 = 15.000$PV ca tng chi ph hot ng hai thit b 2 x 15.000 = 30.000$

Cng ty ang xem xt liu c nn thay th hai thit b ny bng hai thit b mi hay

khng. Thit b mi c cng sut tng t v v th vn cn hai thit b tha mn cho nhu cu

tng cao. M i thit b mi gi 6.000$ v thi hn s dng khng xc nh. Chi ph hot ng ch

1$/mt sn phm. Trn c s ny cng ty tnh gi tr hin ti ca chi ph hai thit b mi s l

27.000$.

Hai thit b mi

Sn lng hng nm mi thit b 750 sn phmu t mi thit b 6.000$Chi ph hot ng hng nm mi thit b 1 x 750 = 750$PV ca tng chi ph hot ng mi thit b 6.000 + 750/0,1 = 13.500$PV ca tng chi ph hot ng hai thit b 13.500 x 2 = 27.000$

V vy chng ta nn b hai thit b c v mua hai thit b mi.

Cng ty hon ton ng khi ngh rng hai thit b mi tt hn hai thit b c, nhng ng

tic l cng ty qun xem xt n d n th ba: thay th ch mt trong cc thit b c. V thit b

mi c chi ph hot ng thp, cng ty s c li khi vn hnh n vi ht cng sut ca nm. Thit

15


16/29

b c cn li n gin ch hot ng khi c nhu cu cao. Hin gi ca chi ph cho chin lc ny

l 26.000$.

Mt thit b c Mt thit b miSn lng hng nm mi thit b 500 sp 1.000 spu t mi thit b 0 6.000$

Chi ph hot ng mi thit b 2 x 500 = 1.000$ 1 x 1.000 = 1.000$PV ca ton b chi ph mi thit b 1.000/0,1 = 10.000$ 6.000 + 1.000/0,1=16.000$PV ca ton b chi ph 2 thit b 26.000$

Thay th mt thit b c tit kim c 4.000$, thay th hai thit b c ch tit kim 3.000$. NPV

ca u t cn bin thit b th hai l 1.000$

Mt trng hp t ra na, nu ta cho thit b c sn xut ht cng sut (75%), thit b

mi ch sn xut ng s lng sn phm cung cp ra th trng (1.500 sn phm). Hin gi ca

chi ph cho chin lc ny l 28.500$.

Mt thit b c Mt thit b miSn lng hng nm mi thit b 750 sp 750 spu t mi thit b 0 6.000$Chi ph hot ng mi thit b 2 x 750 = 1.500$ 1 x 750 = 750$PV ca ton b chi ph mi thit b 1.500/0,1 = 15.000$ 6.000 + 750/0,1=13.500PV ca ton b chi ph 2 thit b 28.500$

7/ Phn tch NPV v s cy quyt nh

By gi mi quan tm ca chng ta s chuyn sang d on NPV cho cc d n c

xut. Vn ch yu trong phn tch NPV l gii quyt nhng kt qu khng chc chn trongtng lai. Hn na, thng thng c s ni tip cc quyt nh trong vic nhn dng cc quyt

nh tip theo trong phn tch NPV.

Gi nh rng bn l gim c ti chnh ca cng ty Solar Electronics Corporation (SEC),

v nhm k s ca cng ty mi y pht trin k thut ch to ng c phn lc s dng nng

lng mt tri. ng c phn lc ny s c p dng cho cc my bay thng mi loi 150

hnh khch. B phn marketing xut rng cng ty SEC nn trin khai mt vi mu u tin

v tin hnh th nghim th trng i vi sn phm mi ny. Nhm lp k hoch ca cng ty

bao gm i din b phn sn xut, marketing, phng k thut ngh rng cng ty nn trin

khai th nghim v pht trin sn phm theo tng giai on. H d on rng cng ty s mt

khong mt nm cho giai on khi u v chi ph pht sinh l 100 triu la. Hn na, nhm lp

k hoch cng tin rng cng ty c 75% c hi m theo vic sn xut v th nghim th trng

s thnh cng.

Da vo nhng kinh nghim hot ng ca mnh trong ngnh cng nghip, cng ty bit

16


17/29

chnh xc vic th nghim v pht trin k thut mi ny s khin cng ty tn km chi ph l bao

nhiu. Tuy nhin doanh s bn ng c phn lc ph thuc vo: (1) s khng chc chn v mc

cu i vi loi my bay du lch trong tng lai, (2) s khng chc chn v gi du hay loi nhin

liu cnh tranh vi k thut mi ca cng ty l bao nhiu. (3) s khng chc chn v th phn ca

cng ty SEC i vi ng c dnh cho loi my bay 150 hnh khch v (4) s khng chc chn

v mc cu i vi loi my bay 150 hnh khch so vi cc loi my bay c nhng kch c khc.Gi du trong tng lai s c tc ng ng k n d n khi cc hng hng khng thay th

nhng my bay hin hu ca mnh, loi my bay phn lc Boeing 727, bng nhng my bay phn

lc th h mi s c sn xut trong vng 5 nm ti v my bay Boeing 727 t hao nhin liu

hn nhiu so vi cc my bay i mi.

Nu nhng th nghim th trng ban u thnh cng, cng ty SEC s u t mua t,

xy mt vi nh my mi v tin hnh sn xut vi quy m ln. Giai on u t ny s c chi

ph l 1.500 triu la. Thi gian hot ng ca d n ko di trong 5 nm. Dng tin ban u

ca d n s xut hin nh trong bng bn di.

(n v: triu la)D n u t Nm th 1 Nm th 2

Doanh thuChi ph kh binChi ph c nhKhu haoEBITThu (Tc=0,34)

EBIT (1-T)Dng tin= EBIT(1-T) + khu haoChi ph u t ban u -1.500$

6.000$(3.000)(1.791)(300)909(309)

600$900$

Khi cng ty SEC quyt nh thc hin d n, cng ty s u t v sn xut ng c my

bay phn lc, NPV ca d n vi mc li sut chit khu 15% c tnh (n v triu la) nh

sau:

NPV = -1.500$ +

= -1500$ + 900$ x PVFA(5,15%)

=1.517$

Lu rng NPV c tnh ton ti thi im nm th 1, l nm m vn u t ban u

1.500 triu la c chi ra. Sau chng ta s a con s ny v thi im nm 0.

Nu th nghim th trng ban u khng thnh cng, ta gi nh l cng ty SEC vi vn u t

17

5

t=1

900$

1,15

t


18/29

ban u b ra l 1.500 triu la s c NPV l -3.611 triu la. Kt qu ny cng c tnh

ton ti thi im nm th 1.

Trnh by cc quyt nh lin quan n d n theo s cy. Nu cng ty SEC quyt nh

tin hnh th nghim th trng, s c 75% kh nng cuc th nghim th trng ny thnh cng.

Nu th nghim l thnh cng, cng ty s i mt vi quyt nh l hoc quyt nh u t 1.500

triu la vo d n vi kh nng sinh li NPV l 1.517 triu $ hoc khng thc hin d n.

Cng ty SEC ng trc hai quyt nh nh sau:

1. Th nghim v pht trin ng c phn lc bng nng lng mt tri hoc l khng.2. u t sn xut vi quy m ln theo kt qu th nghim hoc l khng.

Ta s la chn quyt nh theo th t ngc li bng cy quyt nh. Nh vy, chng ta s

phn tch giai on th hai vi vn u t ban u 1.500 triu la. Nu th nghim th trng

thnh cng, chng ta thy rng SEC nn u t bi v NPV l +1.517 triu la. V ngc li,

nu th nghim khng thnh cng, SEC khng nn u t.

By gi chng ta quay tr li giai on th nht, vi quyt nh quan trng ban u by

gi gim xung thnh mt cu hi n gin: Cng ty SEC c nn u t 100 triu la by gi

c c 75% c hi d n s to ra NPV l 1.517 triu la mt nm sau ? V nh vy gi

tr kt qu mong i trong nm th nht (n v tnh triu la) l:

Nh vy NPV ca quyt nh th nghim nm 0 (n v triu la) c tnh nh sau:

18

u t

Khng u t

Khng u t

u t

Thnhcng

Tht biTh

nghim

Khng thnghim

NPV = 1.517$

NPV = 0

NPV = -3.611$

Hin ti Nm th nht Nm th 2

Th nghim vpht trin

-100$

u t ban u-1.500$

Sn xut

=Kt qu mong iXc sut thnh

cng xKt qu nuthnh cng(

) Xc suttht bi

Kt qu nutht bi

x(+ )

= (0,75 x 1.575$) + (0,25 x 0$)

= 1.138$

+NPV = -100$

= 890$

1.138$

1,15


19/29

Do , cng ty nn thc hin th nghim th trng v sn phm ng c phn lc s

dng nng lng mt tri.

Ch 1: Chng ta s dng li sut chit khu l 15% cho c hai quyt nh th nghim

v quyt nh u t. Chng ta nn s dng mc li sut chit khu cao hn khi chit khu dng

tin i vi quyt nh th nghim th trng giai on u tin, iu ny ph hp bi v quyt

nh th nghim th trng u tin c ri ro cao hn quyt nh u t sau ny.

Ch 2: Chng ta gi nh rng nu nh cuc th nghim th trng tht bi nhng cng

ty vn thc hin quyt nh u t v nh vy cng ty s phi i mt vi mi e da khi mc

cu thp, kt qu l cng ty s b l. Trng hp xu ny s dn ti kt qu l NPV b m 3.611

triu la. y l tnh hung khng c mong i v c th xy ra. Tuy nhin hp l hn ta

cn xt n kh nng cng ty SEC s c gng bn li nhng ti sn c c t u t ban u ca

mnh nh bng pht minh, t ai, cng trnh xy dng, my mc, v cc sn phm....gi nh vigi 1.000 triu la. Nh vy, ngay c khi phi i mt vi tnh hung nhu cu xung thp, cng

ty SEC ch b l 500 triu la trn vn u t gc ban u. V iu ny l tt hn nu cng ty

c tip tc sn xut v s l ti 3.611 triu la (NPV = -3.611 triu la). Tht l kh khn khi

thc hin cy quyt nh t c tt c cc la chn khi mi trng thay i.

8/ IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng

D n bnh thng l d n m trong c dng tin thu vo v chi ra c dng nh sau:

- + + + + + (ch c 1 du - dng tin chi ra)

Trong thc t chng ta li thng gp nhng d n c dng tin phc tp hn nhiu, hay

cn gi l dng tin ca nhng d n khng bnh thng, l cc d n m trong dng tin

i du nhiu hn 1 ln, d n nh vy c dng nh sau:

- + + + + - hoc - + + - + +

C 2 loi kh khn khi s dng tiu chun IRR nh gi nhng d n u t khng bnh

thng

C trng hp khng tn ti IRR thc

C trng hp li c 2 IRR

Khng c IRR thc:

NmD n 0 1 2A -25.000 $ 50.000 $ -36.000 $

19


20/29

i vi d n ny, khng tn ti li sut chit khu IRR m ti NPV = 0, hay ni 1 cch khc,

d n u t ny khng c IRR.

NmD n 0 1 2 3 4

B 1.500 $ -3.000 $ 2.250 $ -750 $ 300 $

NPV ca d n ny dng ti bt c mc li sut no nn d n u t ny cng khng c IRR.

Trong thc t, cc d n khai thc rng th c NPV lun ln hn 0 nn khng c IRR.

IRR a tr:

Mt vi d n khng bnh thng c 2 mc li sut chit khu m ti NPV = 0. Khi

dng tin ca mt d n i du t m sang dng v quay tr li m, c th l tn ti 2 IRR

NmD n 0 1 2C -20.000 $ 64.000 $ -48.000 $

i vi d n ny, c 2 gi tr IRR m ti NPV = 0 (IRR c th l 20% v 100%) Trong

trng hp ny, NPV ca d n ch dng khi chi ph s dng vn nm gia mc li sut 20%

ti 100%. Khi n t hn 20% hoc ln hn 100% th NPV ca d n ny m v nh vy, d n b

loi b.

Trong thc t, hu ht cc quc gia u c quy nh cho php mt khong thi gian hon

thu k t lc cng ty c c thu nhp v thi im chnh thc phi np thu thu nhp. S cho

php tr hon np thu khng phi l nguyn nhn duy nht dng tin c th i du. Ngoi ra,

nhiu d n phi gnh chi ph kh ln vo thi im ngng hot ng d n chng hn nh cc

d n khai thc m. Nhng d n ny khi ngng hot ng phi tn nhiu chi ph ci to t khi

ng ca theo yu cu bo v mi trng. Do vy, cc d n khai thc m thng c hai IRR v

dng tin ca n b i du hai ln: ln th nht trong nm u tin v ln th hai khi kt thc d

n. Cc d n trng cy cng nghip cng c dng tin tng t nh cc d n khai m c dng -+ + + + -.

9/ nh gi cc d n u t trc tip nc ngoi

9.1. L do la chn k thut hin gi iu chnh - APV thay cho k thut NPV truyn thng i vicc d n u t trc tip nc ngoi:

i vi cc d n hi ngoi kh p dng k thut NPV truyn thng nh gi m cn

20


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phi s dng mt h thng nguyn l khc l k thut hin gi iu chnh (APV) v hai l do:

- Th nht, nhng kh khn lm cho dng tin (cc t s trong cng thc NPV) c nhn t hai

gc khc nhau:

+ T quc gia ca nh u t

+ T quc gia m d n c thc hin

Trong , cch nhn ng l t quc gia ca nh u t, m chng ta gi thit cng lquc gia ca tt c cc c ng.

- Th hai, mc ri ro ca cc d n nc ngoi v sut chit khu thch hp (cc mu s ca

NPV).

9.1.1. Dng tin xt t gc trong nc so vi nc ngoi:

- Vn khng chuyn v nc: Nu vn khng chuyn v nc hay b hn ch chuyn v m c

th c s dng li trong mt d n u t nc ngoi th u t ban u (I0) c th gim

thp ng k. T gc ca nh u t, c mt dng thu t cc ngun vn c s dng li bng

chnh lch gia gi tr danh ngha ca cc ngun vn ny v hin gi ca chng nu chng c

dng vi mt c hi ph tt nht. Dng thu ny s c tr vo u t ban u ca d n c

c u t t gc ca nh u t chnh quc.

-nh hng trn doanh s ca cc b phn khc: T gc ca gim c ca mt d n nc

ngoi, tng gi tr cc dng tin t hot ng u t l cch tip cn thch hp. Tuy nhin cc nh

my thng c xy dng cc nc m trc cng ty c thc hin giao dch bun bn.

Nu cc doanh nghip d nh xy dng nh my nhng quc gia m trc y c xut khu

sn phm sang th ch xem xt n dng tin tng thm ca doanh nghip. Doanh s thng b st

gim hoc mt i nu khng thc hin d n u t. y cng chnh l l do thc hin u t.

V vy, ta phi tr i bt c ngun thu nhp no m doanh nghip ng l c th kim c nu

khng thc hin d n u t.

-Nhng hn ch trong vic chuyn tin v nc: Khi c hn ch i vi vic chuyn thu nhp v

nc, ch c nhng dng tin c th chuyn v cng ty m mi c xem xt t gc ca

doanh nghip. iu ny lun ng d thu nhp c c chuyn v hay khng. Khi vic chuynthu nhp b hn ch v mt php l th chng ta vn c th trnh n ti mt mc no bng cch

dng gi chuyn giao, thanh ton chi ph qun l,.

Nu chng ta ch tnh nhng khon thu nhp c th chuyn v nc mt cch cng khai v

hp php, ta s c c mt nh gi thn trng v gi tr ca d n.

+ Nu kt qu tnh ton l s dng: chng ta khng cn cng thm g vo na.

+ Nu kt qu tnh ton l s m: chng ta c th cng thm thu nhp c th chuyn v21


22/29

nc bng cch lch nhng quy nh php l, tm thi gi l thu nhp chuyn v nc khng hp

php.

Chnh phng php hai bc ny l u im chnh ca cch tnh APV phng php hin gi

c iu chnh. Phng php hai bc ny cng c th dng tnh thu.

- Cc mc thu khc nhau: Thu quc t l mt vn phc tp. Tuy nhin nh gi cc d n

u t trc tip nc ngoi, vn cn quan tm l tng s thu s phi tr ch khng phi chnhph no s thu thu, hnh thc thu thu v chi ph cho vic thu thu,.

Gi s mt doanh nghip c tr s M, khi thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip cao hn

thu sut nc ngoi, thu sut c hiu lc s l thu sut M nu c khu tr thu ton phn

cho s thu tr nc ngoi. Th d hai trng hp nh sau:

+ Nu mt d n nc ngoi t ti Singapore, thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip

Singapore dnh cho cc cng ty c tr s ngoi l 27%, trong khi thu sut thu thu nhp doanh

nghip M l 35%, sau khi khu tr s thu tr Singapore, cng ty s phi ch ng thu

8% M.

+ Nu d n c t Canada v chu thu sut 43% th s khng c khu tr thu v

thu sut c hiu lc l 43%.

iu ny c ngha l khi chng ta tnh ton d n u t nc ngoi t gc ca nh u

t, chng ta s dng thu sut T no cao hn trong hai thu sut ca nc nh u t v ca nc

ngoi.

Vic ly thu sut T l mc cao hn trong hai mc thu sut trong nc ca nh u t v

mc thu sut ca nc ngoi l mt cch tip cn thn trng, trn thc t thu thng c lm

gim ti mt mc thp hn T qua vic la chn gi chuyn giao thch hp, tr tin bn quyn,.

Nhng k thut ny cng c th c dng chuyn thu nhp t nc c thu sut cao n cc

nc c thu sut thp v do lm gim c tng mc thu phi np. Thm vo c th tr

hon vic np thu bng cch phn thu nhp c th chuyn v nc ngoi, v v vy nu dng

tin c tnh nh l tt c thu nhp c th chuyn v nc, d thc s c chuyn hay khng, cn

phi c iu chnh, bi v s tin thu tr thc t s t hn s c tnh trong dng tin. C th

iu chnh vo chi ph s dng vn hay tnh vo nh mt thng s b sung khi tnh APV.- Cc khon vay u i: Trong khi cc chnh ph thng dnh h tr ti chnh c bit hay cc

loi tr gip khc cho mt s d n u t trong nc, cc d n u t nc ngoi cng c

hng mt s tr gip. Nhng tr gip ny thng l di hnh thc t thu gi r, gim li

sut, t thu gi r nh hng khng ng k ti u t ban u, nhng khon vay u i l

mt vn kh phc tp trong tnh NPV. Tuy nhin vi k thut APV, ta c th thm mt thng

s c bit bao gm tin tr cp. Cc khon vay u i s lm chi ph s dng vn ca d n22


23/29

u t nc ngoi khc vi chi ph s dng vn ca cc d n u t trong nc.

9.1.2. Mc ri ro ca cc d n nc ngoi v cc sut chit khu thch hp:

- Chn la cc sut chit khu thch hp: Ri ro m u t nc ngoi thng phi i ph l ri

ro t gi hi oi v ri ro quc gia. Nhng ri ro ny cng l mt l do vic kh p dng k

thut NPV cho cc d n u t nc ngoi. Chng hn nh khi c hai ri ro quc gia v ri ro tgi hi oi c th lm cu trc vn ti u c th thay i theo thi gian. iu ny s kh khn

khi tnh vo chi ph s dng vn bnh qun trong k thut tnh NPV. Trong khi vi k thut APV,

chng ta dng chi ph s dng vn c phn (re) chit khu dng tin cn cu trc vn

thng ch t thnh vn do nh hng bi thu - s c tnh mt i lng ring.

-Lm pht v s la chn sut chit khu: Mt vn pht sinh trong tt c cc hoch nh ngn

sch vn, d d n c nh gi l trong nc hay nc ngoi, l vic la chn sut chit

khu danh ngha hay chit khu thc. Vn quan trng khng phi l la chn sut chit khu

no m l vic chng ta vn dng nht qun. C ngha l chng ta s t c cng mt kt lun

nh nhau nu chit khu dng tin danh ngha bng sut chit khu danh ngha (khng iu chnh

lm pht) hoc chit khu dng tin thc bng sut chit khu thc (c iu chnh lm pht).

Mt vn khc c lin quan n vic chn la gia sut chit khu danh ngha v sut chit

khu thc l loi tin c tnh dng tin. Chng ta nn dng dng tin tnh bng ngoi t v

chit khu bng sut chit khu ngoi t hay chuyn i dng tin sang ni a v dng sut chit

khu ni t. Ngoi ra, chng ta nn dng sut chit khu danh ngha hay sut chit khu thc.

Vn y l khng thnh vn khi chng ta dng cch no m quan trng l chng ta phi

vn dng nht qun. Ngha l, nu dng tin tnh bng ngoi t th chng ta dng sut chit khu

ngoi t v ngc li. Tng t, nu ta tnh dng tin thc bng loi tin no th chng ta dng

sut chit khu thc cng bng loi tin .

9.2. Phng php hin gi iu chnh APV:

APV = -S0I0 + S0AF0 + = +

n

t

t

e

ttt

r

TLSCFS

1

***

)1(

)1)((+

= +

n

t

t

a

t

r

TDA

1 )1(

.+

+ = +

n

tt

b

g

r

TBCr

1

0

)1(

.+ S0[CL0 -

= +

n

tt

c

t

r

LR

1 )1(] +

= +

n

tt

d

t

r

TD

1

*

)1(+

= +

n

tt

f

t

r

RF

1

*

)1(

Vi:

St* : T gi giao ngay ti thi im t

S0 : T gi giao ngay ti thi im 0

23


24/29

I0 : Vn u t ban u ca d n tnh bng ngoi t

AF0 : Vn ti u t vo d n do b hn ch chuyn v chnh quc

CFt* : Dng tin k vng c kh nng chuyn v nc bng ngoi t

T : Thu sut cao hn trong 2 mc thu thu nhp nc ngoi v trong nc

n : S nm i sng ca d n

LSt* : Li nhun t doanh s cn li, tr i phn mt i (nu khng thc hin d n) tnhbng ni t

DAt : Chi ph khu hao tnh bng ni t

BC0 : ng gp ca d n vo kh nng vay mn tnh bng ni t

CL0 : Gi tr danh ngha ca khon vay u i tnh bng ngoi t

LRt : Hon tr trn khon vay u i tnh bng ngoi t

TDt* : Tit kim k vng do hon np thu, bng cch nh gi chuyn giao ni b gia cc

cng ty con

RFt* : Thu nhp k vng chuyn v nc bt hp php

re : Sut chit khu cho dng tin, gi nh ti tr ton b bng vn c phn

ra : Sut chit khu cho khu hao

rb : Sut chit khu v khon tit kim thu trn vic khu tr li vay do ng gp vo kh

nng vay mn

rc : Sut chit khu tit kim do li sut tha thun (u i)

rd : Sut chit khu tit kim do chuyn giao ni b gia cc cng ty con

rf : Sut chit khu cho dng tin ca d n chuyn v nc bt hp php

rg : Chi ph s dng vn vay th trng chnh quc

24


25/29

10. NH GI MT D N U T:

I. Gii thiu d n:

1. Gii thiu chung:

- Tn cng ty: CTCP c ph A- Tn d n: D n u t My rang xay c ph

- Sn phm chnh, cng sut: C ph rang xay (c ph truyn thng), cng sut 5.000kg/gi

- Tng mc u t: 50.000.000.000 ng- Thi gian d kin bt u t thng 06/2009; thi gian d kin hon thnh thng 06/2010

2. Mc tiu ca d n:a. Ni dung u t v ngun vn- Ni dung u t: u t h thng my rang xay c ph nhm nng cao cng sut hin ti ca nh

my.

Hin ti cng ty c:

+ Tng cng 19 my rang v hai my xay c ph, tng tr gi: 5.756.882.792 ng

+ Hai my trn c ph v thit b trn c ph, tr gi: 293.332.428ng

+ Dy chuyn rang xay ng gi in Date, tr gi: 1.560.000.000 ng

+ H thng, dy chuyn in ng gi/lon, in date, tng tr gi: 2.268.923.623 ng

+ Dy chuyn sn xut Caramel (thit b nu: s lng 25, ni nu: s lng 7) tr gi:389.100.000 ng.

+ H thng my sng phn loi c ph: 116.190.476 ng.Ngoi cc h thng my dy chuyn sn xut chnh trn cn mt s h thng my ph tr khc.

Sn lng tiu th nm 2008 l khong 11.415 tn/nm, hin cng sut sn xut ca thit b my

mc hin ti t 100% cng sut thit k ban u. Nu u t thm h thng my mc mi

ny vi cng sut ti a c th ln ti 5.000kg/gi v mi ngy lm vic 2 ca, mi ca l 8gi thcng sut tng thm l 80 tn/ngy/2ca (28.800 tn/nm).

b. Ngun vn u t:Ngun vn u t ca d n s c cn i t nhiu ngun vn huy ng, bao gm:

- Vn t c ca ch u tS dng ngun vn u t pht trin doanh nghip, chim 40% tng ngun vn. Vn ch s hu

vi sut sinh li mong mun l 15%/nm (1,25%/thng)

- Vn vay cc t chc tn dng

Vi ti sn m bo n vay l ti sn hnh thnh t d n, d n s vay t ngn hng thng mi(t chc tn dng) ti tr cho d n. Vn vay chim t trng 60% tng ngun vn vi li sut

hng nm l 10,5%/nm (0,875%/thng).

Nh vy, khi d n hot ng s ha chung vo ton b hot ng ca doanh nghip nn s chu

cng mc ri ro chung, do , sut sinh li k vng ca doanh nghip i vi d n ny l 15%.

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3. My mc thit b cng ngh cng sutSTT Hng mc (my mc thit b) S lng Cng ngh S tin (tr gi

c tnh ng)

1 My rang cng sut 5.000Kg/Gi 1 c 23.000.000.000

2Thit b trn ph gia v lm ngui cng sut5.000Kg/gi (iu khin t ng bng my tnh) 1

Vit Nam ch to(linh kin c)

950.000.000

3H thng SILO cha c ph sau khi rang (05 SILO)sc cha 24 tn/SILO (75m3) 5 SILO

Vit Nam ch to(INOX SS304)

2.000.000.000

4H thng cn nh lng v trn bt cng sut6.000kg/gi (iu khin bng my tnh) 1

Vit Nam ch to(linh kin Nht)

600.000.000

5H thng SILO cha bt sau khi xay (05 SILO) sccha 28 tn/SILO (75m3) 5 SILO

Vit Nam ch to(INOX SS304)

2.000.000.000

6My ng gi (ti gi 100g) Cng sut 75gi/pht(04 my) 4

c 7.980.000.000

7 My ng gi chn khng 1 Italia 2.500.000.000

8 My ng lon chn khng 1 Italia 2.500.000.000

9Dy chuyn sn xut Caramel bt cng sut5.000kg/gi 1

Vit Nam ch to(linh kin Nht)

3.500.000.000

10My sng tch v kim loi cng sut 5.000kg/gi

1Vit Nam sx (VinaNha Trang)

250.000.000

11 H thng lnh cng sut 80HP cho phng ng gi 1 Nht sn xut 300.000.000

Tng cng (1) 45.580.000.000

Khon d phng (2) 4.420.000.000

- D phng mua my trong nc 1.700.000.000

- D phng mua my nc ngoi 2.720.000.000

Tng chi ph u t d tnh = (1) + (2) 50.000.000.000

4. Mi trng kinh doanh

- Hin ti A ng u th trng trong nc v mng c ph rang xy chim ti 90% th phn v

hu nh l doanh nghip chi phi th trng ny.- A cng ang y mnh vic xut khu ra th trng quc t, hin A xut khu ti 43 quc giatrn th gii v nhng quyn thnh cng 8 qun ti 8 quc gia trong c M v Nht nhmtng bc qung b thng hiu ca mnh.

5. Sn phm v kh nng tiu th sn phm ca d n:- Sn phm ca d n l c ph rang xay (c ph truyn thng cc loi). Sn phm c chia lm 3loi; cao cp, trung cp v sn phm ph thng vi mc gi thp nht l 70.000 ng cao nht l500.000 ng/kg.

- Sn phm c tiu th trn phm vi c nc (chim khong 90% th phn trong nc) v mt

phn xut khu sang mt s th trng nh: M; Hn Quc; Nht, Nga, Singapore ...).Tuy nhin, d n cng c th gp ri ro h thng khng th trnh c nh thay i trong li sut,thay i trong sc mua, nhng thay i trong k vng ca nh u t v trin vng ca nn kinh t,.

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II. nh gi hiu qu ti chnh d n:1. C s tnh ton:

27

IBNG THNG S

Khon mc vt

Tng u t tr. ng 50,000Cng sut thit k tn/nm 28,800

- Cng sut Kg/gi 5,000

- S ca lm vic/ngy Ca 2- S gi lm vic/ca Gi 8

- S ngy lm v ic trong nm Ngy 360

Cng sut hot ng Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5 Nm .... Nm 10

Tt nht 0% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 90% 90%

Thng xy ra 0% 30% 40% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%Xu nht 0% 30% 30% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%

Gi bn bnh qun tr.ng/tn 75Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5 Nm .... Nm 10

Sn lng tiu th tn/nm 8,640 11,520 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400

Chi ph gi vn/doanh thu 95%Chi ph QL&BH/Doanh thu 3%Thi hn vay Nm 2Li sut vay %/nm 10.5Tng u t tr.ng 50,000Thi gian khu khao Nm 10S vn vay tr.ng 30,000


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2. Hiu qu d n:

Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5 Nm Nm 10Cng sut hot ngthng xy ra

0% 30% 40% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

Dng tin ra (tr.ng)50,000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tng u t (tr.ng)50,0

00Dng tin vo (tr.ng) 10,970 14,210 17,450 17,450 17,450 17,450 17,450

Doanh thu (tr.ng)648,000

864,000

1,080,000

1,080,000

1,080,000

1,080,000

1,080,000

Chi ph (tr.ng)640,040

851,720

1,063,400

1,063,400

1,063,400

1,063,400

1,063,400

- Gi vn 615,60

0820,800

1,026,000

1,026,000

1,026,000

1,026,000

1,026,000

- Chi ph QL&BH 19,440

25,920

32,400

32,400

32,400

32,400

32,400

- Khu hao 5,00

05,00

05,00

05,00

05,00

05,00

05,00

0

EBT

7,9

60

12,2

80

16,6

00

16,6

00

16,6

00

16,6

00

16,60

0

Thu thu nhp DN1,9

903,0

704,1

504,1

504,1

504,1

504,15

0

Li nhun rng sau thu5,97

09,2

1012,4

5012,4

5012,4

5012,4

5012,450

Dng tin rng (tr.ng) -50,000 10,970 14,210 17,450 17,450 17,450 17,450 17,450Thu thu nhp DN 25%

NPV29,4

93IRR 28.00%

3. Kt lun: TT Ch tiu Gi tr nh gi1 r 15%/nm2 NPV 29.493 tr >03 IRR 28% >15%/nm4 PI 1.5309 >15 PP 3.63 nm

KL: Cc ch tiu u t yu cu nn d n c chp nhn.

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MC LC

PHN I........................................................................................................................................................3

CC TIU CHUN NH GI D N U T................................................................................3

1. TIU CHUN HIN GI THUN THE NET PRESENT VALUE NPV......................................32. TIU CHUN H S HON VN NI B IRR (INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN)......................5

3. TIU CHUN CH S SINH LI ( THE PROFITABILITY INDEX - PI).........................................6

4. TIU CHUN THI GIAN THU HI VN (THE PAYBACK PERIOD - PP)..................................7

5. TIU CHUN THI GIAN THU HI VN C CHIT KHU (THE DISCOUNTED PAYBACK

PERIOD - DPP)............................................................................................................................................7

PHN II.......................................................................................................................................................9

VN DNG CC TIU CHUN VO D N THC TIN..............................................................91. nh gi d n u t trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn.............................................................9

2. Thi im ti u u t d n...........................................................................................................11

3. Cc d n u t khng ng nht v thi gian....................................................................................12

4. Quyt nh khi no nn thay th thit b hin hu.................................................................................13

5. Gi phi tr ca vic tn dng ti sn hin hu cho d n mi............................................................14

6. Nhn t thi v.......................................................................................................................................15

7. Phn tch NPV v s cy quyt nh.................................................................................................16

8. IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng.............................................................................................19

9. nh gi cc d n u t trc tip nc ngoi....................................................................................21

10. nh gi mt d n u t...................................................................................................................25

nhom 1_van dung cac tieu chuan danh gia dadt trong thuc tien

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