Mi quan h gia quy m chnh ph v tng trng kinh t cc quc gia ASEAN

The threshold of government size and economic growth for ASEAN countries:An analysis of the smooth transition regression modelNhm 05

Mi quan h gia quy m chnh ph v tng trng kinh t cc quc gia ASEANTm ttMi quan h gia chi tiu chnh ph v tng trng kinh t l mt vn c nhiu tranh ci. Cc nghin cu ngy nay c thc hin kim nh gi thuyt rng mi quan h gia quy m chnh ph v tng trng kinh t l phi tuyn.Nghin cu ny thc hin cho cc nc ASEAN trong giai on 1980-2011. Kt qu thc nghim cho thy rng c tn ti mt mi quan h phi tuyn gia quy m chnh ph v tng trng kinh t cho cc nc ASEAN.

Cu hi nghin cuLiu c tn ti mt mi quan h phi tuyn gia quy m chnh ph v tng trng kinh t cc nc ASEAN hay khng?Quy m chnh ph nn l bao nhiu h tr cho tng trng kinh t?Bi cnh thc tKhu vc ASEAN, sau cuc khng hong nm 1997, ci cch khu vc cng t c s n nh kinh t v m.Cng ng Kinh t ASEAN l mc tiu ca hi nhp kinh t - x hi khu vc ASEAN vo nm 2015.Gim khong cch pht trin kinh t - x hi gia cc nc trong khu vc.Tng cng pht trin v thc hin qun l cng n nh tip tc tng cng hiu qu tch cc ca tng trng kinh t (ASEAN, 2013).Nn tng l thuytQuy m chnh ph c tc ng cng chiu vi tng trng kinh tQuy m chnh ph c tc ng ngc chiu vitng trng kinh tBarro (1990, tr. 104- 120)Gwartney, Lawson v Holcombe (1998, trang 4) Barro v Sala-I-Martin (1992, p. 648-651).Gwartney, Lawson v Holcombe nm (1998)Dar v AmirKhalkhali (2002)Theo Vedder v Gallaway (1998, trang 1), khng c x hi no trong lch s t c mc pht trin kinh t mnh m m khng cn chnh ph.Nn tng l thuytL thuyt ng cong Armey pht trin bi Armey (c trch dn trong Vedder v Gallaway 1998, trang 1-2) th hin mi quan h phi tuyn gia chi tiu chnh ph v tng trng nh sau:

Tng quan cc nghin cu thc nghim trc yQuy m chnh phc tc ng tch cc ntng trng kinh tChi tiu u t ca chnh phc tc ng tch cc ntng trng kinh tKneller, Bleaney v Gemmell (1999) - 22 nc OECDBose, Haque v Osborn (2007) - 30 nc ang pht trinQuy m chnh phc tc ng tiu cc ntng trng kinh tRomero vila v Strauch (2008) - 15 quc gia EUGwartney, Lawson v Holcombe (1998) - 23 quc gia OECDAlexiou (2009) - Cc nc ang pht trin Nam ng u.Afonso v Furceri (2010) - Cc nc OECDDa trn l thuyt ng cong Armeynghin cu gn y tm thy ngng tc ng ca chi tiu chnh ph ti tng trng kinh t.Vedder v Gallaway (1998)M17,45%Canada 21,37%Anh20,97%Italy22,23%Thy in19,43%an Mch26,14% Chen v Lee (2005)i Loan22,83% - tng chi tiu7,30% - chi u t14,96% - chi tiu dngZhu et al. (2010)Hn Quc, i Loan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thi Lan11% GDPTng quan cc nghin cu thc nghim trc y Cc nc ASEANRajabi v Muhammad (2013) cho thy chi tiu chnh ph phung ph c tc ng tiu cc i vi tng trng kinh t trong 5 quc gia ASEAN trong giai on 1980-2006.While et al. (2010) tm ra ngng c lng ca quy m chnh ph l 11% i vi Malaysia, Singapore, v Thi Lan trong giai on 1961-2004. Khng c s tn ti r rng v mi quan h gia quy m chnh ph v tng trng kinh t cho cc nc ASEAN l tuyn tnh hoc phi tuyn.

Phng php nghin cuD liuNghin cu ny c thit k bng cuc iu tra theo d liu bng vo giai on 1980-2011,c thu thp t Penn World Table (PWT) 8.0.D liu t cc nc ASEAN:BruneiMalaysiaCampuchiaPhilippinesIndonesiaSingaporeLoThi LanVit NamPhng php nghin cuD liu

Phng php nghin cuD liu

Phng php nghin cuD liu

Phng php nghin cuD liu

Phng php nghin cuM hnh thc nghim

Phng php nghin cuM hnh thc nghim

Phng php nghin cuM hnh thc nghim - M hnh PSTR

Phng php nghin cuM hnh thc nghim - M hnh PSTR

Phng php nghin cuM hnh thc nghim - M hnh PSTR

Phng php nghin cuCc kim nh k thut ca m hnhGonzlez, Teravirta v Dijk (2005) xut ra nhng phng php k thut sau y cho m hnh PSTR:(i) Kim nh tnh tuyn tnh i vi m hnh PSTR(ii) c lng tham s(iii) Kim nh s lng hm chuyn i.

Phng php nghin cuCc kim nh k thut ca m hnhKim nh tuyn tnh

Phng php nghin cuCc kim nh k thut ca m hnhKim nh tuyn tnh

Phng php nghin cuCc kim nh k thut ca m hnhKim nh tuyn tnh

Phng php nghin cuCc kim nh k thut ca m hnhc lng tham s

Phng php nghin cuCc kim nh k thut ca m hnhKim nh s lng hm chuyn i

Phng php nghin cuRobust test

Kt qu thc nghimKim nh tnh tuyn tnh

Kt qu thc nghimGi tr ngng ca QMCP v tham s chuyn iKt qu thc nghimGi tr ngng ca QMCP v tham s chuyn i

Kt qu thc nghimKt qu c lng ca PSTR, GLS v GMM

Kt qu thc nghimKt qu c lng ca PSTR, GLS v GMM

Tho lun v kt quNghin cu ny iu tra s tn ti ca mt ngng cho chi tiu chnh ph cho cc nc ASEAN trong giai on 1980-2011. Nghin cu tm thy rng c tn ti quan h phi tuyn gia chi tiu chnh ph v tng trng kinh t cho cc nc ASEAN. Nghin cu ny khng nh rng gi tr ngng l 25,69% GDP phn v th 82 ca quan st v tham s chuyn i = 37,2. S thay i t vic chi tiu chnh ph thp sang chi tiu chnh ph cao rt nhanh chng. Gi tr ca bin ngng cao hn rt nhiu so vi kt qu nghin cu ca Zhu et al. (2010). iu th v, khi chi tiu chnh ph vt qu mc ngng (25,69%), tng trng kinh t gim cn 0,2% (0,7% - 0,5%). i vi iu ny, quy m chnh ph c ti u ha khi chi tiu tiu dng ca chnh ph mc 25,69% ca GDP.Nhng kt qu ny cho thy rng khi quy m chnh ph vt qu ngng, tng trng kinh t b cn tr nhng nu chi tiu chnh ph nh hn ngng, s gia tng chi tiu chnh ph s thc y tng trng kinh t.