nielsen economic current: august 2009
DESCRIPTION
Rising Sales In Emerging Economies Reflect Growing Optimism About Recovery Nielsen Wire - August 18, 2009 The notion that the global economy may be on the verge of recovery has not yet translated into improved consumer spending or confidence, although consumers in the emerging countries – Brazil, India and China – seem to be more optimistic than others and are loosening their purse strings ever so slightly, according to the new edition of the Nielsen Economic Current. Of the 12 countries Nielsen now tracks, all but Taiwan (which declined) showed no significant change in measures of spending. Canadian, Western European and American spending was, at best, restrained. Read the full article at http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/rising-sales-in-emerging-economies-reflect-growing-optimism-about-recovery/TRANSCRIPT
August 2009
Todd HaleJames Russo
Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
Nielsen Global Scorecard: Trips Slowing, Sales Moderate
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Chg vs. Previous
Month
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Germany
India
May 09
Jun 09
Brazil
Canada
China
France
United States
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1% and -4%
KPI Summary
Jun ‘09
Jan ‘08
Feb ‘09
Mar ‘09
Apr ‘09
May ‘09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Negative: <= -4%
Global Topline: Summary of All Countries
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Negative: between -1% and -4%
June Top-Line:Optimism in emerging markets
US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR IN CN
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
TW HK
Global Confidence & Recession/Recovery Buzz
June 2009: Global Recession Plateaus
April 2009 77% of global consumers believed their country was in a recession. For June 2009 number stands at 71%
75% to 100%50% to 75%25% to 50%0% to 25%
Source: NGCCI
June 2009: Optimism Emerging
April 2009, 23% of global consumers believed they will be out of a recession in a year. June 2009 number increased to 26%
0% to 15%15% to 30%30% to 45%45% to 60%
Source: NGCCI
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Message
Count
Recession ‐ Global Recovery‐Global
While Recession Buzz Trending Lower, Global Concerns still elevated
Weekly Blog Buzz Trend* across U.S., UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, New Zealand (Data covers 01/01/2009 – 08/01/2009)
Global recession buzz has dropped ~27% since 3/14/09
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Spike in Recessionary Buzz Driven by Western Europe.
United Kingdom Italy Germany
United States Australia/NZ Spain
Recession Recovery
Mes
sage
Cou
nt
* Blog data only, 12/28/08-08/01/09
Country Highlights & Insights
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Negative: between -1% and -4%
Shopper Frequency Continues to Slow & Spending Per Trip Turns Negative as More Retailers Reduce Prices to be More Competitive and Coupon Usage Accelerates
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
USA Summary
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Store Brands Struggling to Gain Share as National Brands continue to fuel increased promotional activity
Canada Summary
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
France Summary
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Value Channels continue growth, lift in promotional sales
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Germany Summary
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Shift to higher growth in unit sales, dollar sales remain
moderate
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
UK Summary
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Volume sales improving
Budget store brands’ growth slows, premium store
brands return to growth
Peaked in April 2006 at 101, then declined to 65 (April ‘09). Bounced to
72 in June.
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Italy Summary
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Store Brands and Value Channels realizing growth, however frequency down
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Spain Summary
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Gain in optimism not reflected in spending as of
yet
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 6/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 82
Optimism low, declines in sales evident in most recent
period
Taiwan Summary
Jul 08 Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Continued rise in household and hygienic categories (e.g. Antiseptic liquid and bleach), in view of the outbreak of H1N1. increasing in-home dinning / occasions, home-consumed FMCG categories (e.g. beverages, packaged food, dishwashing detergent) benefiting.
Hong Kong Summary
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Brazil Summary
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
8 pt jump in optimism and consumers shopping more
frequently driving sales
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 08
Feb 08
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands? ~
Are shoppers shifting to value channels? ~
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently? ~
Are consumers spending more per trip? ~
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Consistent volume and value sales gains of +5%,
rebound in optimism
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
India Summary
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
FMCG manufacturers are still reporting slower growth in their
shipment numbers but the direction is now positive
China Summary
• United States:– James Russo, [email protected]– Todd Hale, [email protected]
• Global:– Lisa Lee, [email protected]
• Western Europe: – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, [email protected]– Jonathan Banks, [email protected]
• Canada: – Carman Allison, [email protected]
• Russia:– Natalia Ignatyeva, [email protected]
• India:– Jayashree Janardhanan, [email protected]
• Brazil:– Margarita Zanella, [email protected]
• China:– Phoebe Lam, [email protected]
• Taiwan:– Cheryl Wen, [email protected]
• Hong Kong– Acky Chan, [email protected]
• Nielsen Global Buzz:– Chelsea Peters, [email protected]– Shobhana Srinivasan, [email protected]
Contact List