nlp for decision making
TRANSCRIPT
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
German Rigau http://adimen.si.ehu.es/~rigau
NLP for Decision Making
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Foreword
“Cuando creíamos que teníamos todas las respuestas,de pronto, cambiaron todas las preguntas.”
- Mario Benedetti
"When we thought we had all the answers,suddenly, they changed all the questions. "
- Mario Benedetti
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Foreword
Where are the answers to the new (and old) questions?
Introspection? Experts?… From many people? … “Wisdom of the Crowd”? Books, News, Tweets, … Textual Sources? Multimedia sources? Images, Radio, TV ... Sensors? IoT? ... Anything? Everything?
Information overload …
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Foreword
Information overload …
infobesity, infoxication!
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Foreword
Information overload …
infobesity, infoxication! by Bertram Gross, The Managing of
Organizations: The administrative struggle (1964)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Foreword
Information overload …
infobesity, infoxication! by Bertram Gross, The Managing of
Organizations: The administrative struggle (1964)
by Alvin Toffler, Future Shock (1970)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Foreword
Information overload …
infobesity, infoxication! by Bertram Gross, The Managing of
Organizations: The administrative struggle (1964)
by Alvin Toffler, Future Shock (1970)
Seneca complained that “the abundance of books is distraction” in the 1st century AD!
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Foreword
Information overload occurs when the amount of input to a system exceeds its processing capacity.
Decision makers have fairly limited cognitive processing capacity.
Consequently, when information overload occurs, it is likely that a reduction in decision quality will occur.
From (Speier et al 1999)
Always when advances in technology have increased a production of information.
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Outline
Big Data & NLP
NewsReader
Concluding Remarks
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
Unstructured digital content accounts for 90% of all information [White paper IDC 2014] …
Usually in the form of texts and documents in multiple languages ...
Only appropriate NLP tools can access this wealth of knowledge …
NLP among the top 10 strategic technology trends for 2017 according to Gartner
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
Because everybody knows that ...
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
But in fact ...
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
e.g. IBM Watson …
but also Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft, ...
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
What happens in Internet every second? (July 2015)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
What happens in Internet every second? (July 2015)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
http://tour-pedia.org/gui/demo/
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP ...
http://ec2-54-170-89-29.eu-west-1.compute.amazonaws.com:8000
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
… not only from Social Media / Internet.
LexisNexis receives daily 1.5M news. CENDOJ stores 6M judicial sentences (0.6M/year) 5M Electronic Health Records (EHR) … 0.2M Patents … ?? Project proposals … ...
… all kinds of e-documents ...
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
http://emm.newsexplorer.eu/
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
http://emm.newsbrief.eu/
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
http://medisys.newsbrief.eu
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
http://www.agendadigital.gob.es/planes-actuaciones/tecnologias-lenguaje/Paginas/plan-impulso-tecnologias-lenguaje.aspx
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
Deep and up-to-date knowledge of the ICT and BIO research and industrial sectors for policy makers design effective public policies
Improve the procedure for granting and monitoring public aid to R+D+i in ICT and BIO sectors (more than a half research public aids)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
Help designing Spanish R&D&i strategy
Deep and up-to-date knowledge of the ICT and BIO research and industrial sectors for policy makers design effective public policies
Improve the procedure for granting and monitoring public aid to R&D&i in ICT and BIO sectors (more than a half research public aids)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
Applicants
Oncology
Pharmacology
ICT health
Hepatitis C
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
Grants
Oncology
Pharmacology
ICT health
Hepatitis C
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/W-ICEWS.html
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big Data & NLP
https://sites.google.com/site/distributedlittleredhen
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Outline
Big Data & NLP
NewsReader
Concluding Remarks
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
NewsReader
Building structured event Indexes of large volumes of financial and economic Data for Decision Making
VUA, UPV/EHU, FBK, LexisNexis, ScraperWiki. Main goal:
StoryLines in 4 languages at large scale From NLP to Semantic Web (& Inference!)
Focusing on: Economy & Finance Cross-lingual Event Mining Monitoring car industry (10 years, 2.5M documents).
http://www.newsreader-project.eu http://github.com/newsreader
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
NewsReader Project Objectives
Event Detection in English, Dutch, Spanish and Italian events in terms of who did what, when and where provenance: who tells what and when factuality / non-factual or speculative relations between events Cross-lingual & Cross-document
Inferencing about events & situations Narrative schemas, timelines & storylines
over long periods of time Large-scale processing, storage and retrieval of events
(integrate the new with the old)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Storylines
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
End-to-end system
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Knowledge Store
https://knowledgestore.fbk.eu/
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Large-scale processing
LN car company news (EN) : ~ 6M (10 years) 1st year: 63K ~ 2 weeks 2nd year: 1.3M documents ~ 1 week 3rd year: 2.5M documents ~ 1 week
FIFA world Cup (EN): ~200K TechCrunch (EN) : 43K articles Kiem (EN) : 212K documents Dutch House of Representatives (NL) : 1M documents Europarl (EN, ES) : ~19K EN, ~19K ES WikiNews (EN, ES, IT, NL) :
19K EN, 8K IT, 7K ES and 1K NL ECB+ (EN) : 984 articles Spanish Ministry of Industry (EN, ES): 200K patents
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Knowledge Store
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Synercope
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Micro & Macro vision
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced who: Mariano Rajoy what: that the budget cuts will continue next yearwhen: yesterdaywhere: in Madrid
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced who: Mariano Rajoywhat: that the budget cuts will continue next yearwhen: yesterdaywhere: in Madrid
event2: cutswhat: budget
event3: continuewhat: the budget cutswhen: next year
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced who: Mariano Rajoywhat: that the budget cuts will continue next yearwhen: yesterdaywhere: in Madrid
event2: cutswhat: budget who? when? where?
event3: continuewhat: the budget cutswhen: next year who? where?
Implicit knowledge
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced who: Mariano Rajoy NERC (PER) what: that the budget cuts will continue next yearwhen: yesterdaywhere: in Madrid NERC (LOC)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced who: Mariano Rajoy
http://dbpedia.org/resource/Mariano_Rajoy NED what: that the budget cuts will continue next yearwhen: yesterdaywhere: in Madrid
http://dbpedia.org/resource/Madrid NED
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced who: Mariano Rajoy what: that the budget cuts will continue next yearwhen: yesterday
2016-11-30 TIMEX3where: in Madrid
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
event1: announced => announce.01 who: Mariano Rajoy
A0 = announcer = vn.Agent = fn.Speaker what: that the budget cuts will continue next year
A1 = utterance = vn.Topic = fn.Message when: yesterday
AM-TMPwhere: in Madrid
AM-LOC SRL + Predicate Matrix!
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event Detection: Example
Mariano Rajoy announced yesterday in Madrid that the budget cuts will continue next year.
Topics:
“economic convergence” : 0.030“public finance” : 0.023“budget estimate” : 0.022“stability programme” : 0.021“economic forecasting” : 0.021“financial aid” : 0.019 JEX @ JRC!
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Standards for inter-operability
NAF NLP Annotation Format Basic format for inter-document NLP analysis Stand-off XML, multi-layered annotation format Allows parallel processing Covers many linguistic levels All NLP modules read and write NAF
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
IXA pipes
NAF NLP Annotation Format Basic format for inter-document NLP analysis Stand-off XML, multi-layered annotation format Allows parallel processing Covers many linguistic levels All NLP modules read and write NAF
http://ixa2.si.ehu.es/ixa-pipes/
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
English generic pipeline v3.0
1) NAF libraries (EHU, VUA)2, 3, 4) ixa-pipes (EHU): tok, pos, nerc5, 6) ukb (EHU), vua-svm-wsd (VUA)7) ixa-pipe-srl (mate tools + predicate-matrix) : dependency parsing + SRL (N+V) + event-classification8) ixa-pipe-parse (EHU) : constituent parsing9) corefgraph (EHU): nominal coreference10) ixa-pipe-ned (DBpedia spotlight) : Entity Linking11) fbk-timepro (FBK) : timex312) vua-factuality (VUA)13) vua-opinion-miner (VUA)14) vua-event-coref (VUA) : intra-document event coreference15) fbk-temprel (FBK)16) fbk-causalrel (FBK)
http://ixa2.si.ehu.es/nrdemo/demo.php
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
English generic pipeline v3.0
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Cross-lingual interoperability
Named entities Cross-lingual links from DBpedia
Events Predicate Matrix: Interoperable event models
VN, FN, PB, WN (SUMO, etc.), ESO Also nominal predicates Cross-lingual PM (EN, ES, NL, IT)
Time Cross-lingual time normalization
Concepts Cross-lingual wordnets: MCR, MultiWordNet, OMW
Same semantic representations (ECKGs) for the same events in different languages!
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Cross-lingual Predicate Matrix
Language Independent
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Event detection highlights
Most complete and advanced NLP pipelines EN, ES, NL and IT Basic NLP processing (ixa-pipes) More advanced analysis ... 64 NLP modules: EN 19, ES 13+2, NL 14, IT 16
Cross-lingual semantic interoperability
Most complete multilingual evaluation of NLP pipelines
Most robust large-scale processing
Open source modules and ready-to-use VM images
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big NLP SURFsara Hadoop cluster https://www.surfsara.nl
170 data/computer nodes. 1370 CPU-cores for parallel processing using YARN
(MapReduce, Spark, Giraph) 2.3 PB.
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Big NLP SURFsara Hadoop cluster
https://hadoop.apache.org/ http://www.cascading.org to support complex workflows on Hadoop
LexisNexis provided 11 years of financial news about the car industry
2.5M news (a subset of the 6M) 198,134 core hours (22.6 years on a single CPU!) 141.5 hours (5.9 days) 17.700 news per hour : 425.000 news per day 4.4 min. per document http://beehub.nl/surfsara-hadoop/public/newsreader-ha
doop.tar.gz https://github.com/sara-nl/newsreader-hadoop
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Outline
Big Data & NLP
NewsReader
Concluding Remarks
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Superhuman results
From Andy Steinbach (NVIDIA)
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Superhuman results
Deep visual-semantic alignments for generating image descriptions (2014)A Karpathy, L Fei-Fei
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Superhuman results
LipNet: Sentence Level Lipreading (2016)Yannis M. Assael, Brendan Shillingford, Shimon Whiteson, Nando de Freitas
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
NLU
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
NLU
Current AI challenges
Natural Language Understanding Image/video Understanding Process/agents/services Understanding Database Understanding Web Understanding Driving Understanding ...
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
NLU
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
Final words?
Unstructured digital content accounts for 90% of all information [White paper IDC 2014] …
Only appropriate NLP tools can access this wealth of knowledge …
NLP among the top 10 strategic technology trends for 2017 according to Gartner
NLP is NOT solved! Much more R+D investment on NLP is needed to
address this challenge NLP is NOT in the EU research agenda!
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Text Mining for Policy Making, 13th December 2016
German Rigau http://adimen.si.ehu.es/~rigau
NLP for Decision Making