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NOAA  Arc'c  Priori'es  and  Poten'al  Contribu'ons  to  PPP/YOPP  

Randall  Dole  NOAA  Earth  System  Research  Laboratory    

Physical  Sciences  Division  

NOAA’s  Arc'c  Goals    

Forecast Sea Ice Strengthen Foundational Science to Understand & Detect Arctic Climate and Ecosystem Changes

Improve Weather & Water Forecasts & Warnings

Enhance International & National Partnerships

Improve Stewardship and Management of Ocean and Coastal Resources in the Arctic Advance Resilient and Healthy Arctic Communities and Economies

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NOAA  Arc'c  Predic'on  Workshop    (2014)    

Findings from the NOAA Science Challenge Workshop

May 13-15, 2014NOAA Earth System Research LaboratoryBoulder, Colorado

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Status&and&Requirements&for&ProgressMajor  Workshop  RecommendaCon:        NOAA  should  par'cipate  vigorously  in  the  WMO/PPP  Year  of  Polar  Predic'on  Project  (PPP),  par'cularly  in  efforts  related  to  the  Year  Of  Polar  Predic'on  (YOPP).  

Expecta'on:    YOPP  would  enable  significant  advances  in  Arc'c  Predic'ons  and  Services  

NOAA$LINE$OFFICE OAR

NMFS

NWS

NESDIS

NESDIS

OAR

OAR

OAR

OAR

OAR

OAR

NESDIS

NESDIS

NESDIS

NESDIS

OAR

OAR

OAR

OAR

OAR

NESDIS

OAR

NOS

NOS

NESDIS

NESDIS

NMFS

NESDIS

NESDIS

NESDIS

NESDIS

NWS

NWS

NESDIS

OAR

OAR

NWS

NWS

NWS

NWS

NWS

NWS

NWS

NWS

$ ATMOSPHERIC$OBSERVATIONS TECHNOLOGIES LO

Pacific$Arctic$Group$(PAG)

Ditributed$Biological$Observatory$(DBO)

Observations$of$Ice$accretion$on$vessels$in$Arctic$waters

International$Ice$Charting$W

orking$Group

Global$Cryosphere$W

atch$(GCW)$

International$Arctic$Systems$for$Observing$the$Atm

osphere$(IASOA)

South$Pole

Barrow$Observatory

Russian/Canadian$Stations

Oliktok$Point

ICECAPS

Operational$Satellite$Surface/Atm

os$Parm

eters

Wind$Ocean$Database$N$Arctic$Ocean

Expansion$of$Arctic$and$Antarctic$Direct$Broadcast$Satellite$Products

GOESNR$Risk$Reduction

UAS$N$deBoer

UASNSonde$N$Cione

UAS$N$Hood

Buoys

RUSULCA

International$Ice$Buoy$Program

MOSAiC

Ditributed$Biological$Observatory$(DBO)

Oceanographic$Observations$N$Cook$Inlet

Coastal$Assessments$N$Beaufort$and$Chukchi$Seas

World$Ocean$Atlas$&$Arctic$Regional$Climatology

World$Ocean$Database

Loss$of$Sea$Ice$Program

Operational$Blended$Ice$and$Snow$Satellite$Products

Integration$of$Sentinel$1$data$into$OSPO$ice$and$wind$m

onitoring

Sea$Ice$Concentration$Data$for$Operational$Ice$forecasting

GOESNR$Risk$Reduction

EMC$Land$Prediction

CVP$Ice$Assim

ilation$and$Prediction$(CFSv2)

GOFS$Sea$Ice$Validation

Landfast$Ice$M

odel$(CIOM)

Sea$Ice$M

odeling$(ESPC)

$Forecast$Services$Weather/Ice$$in$support$of$YOPP$Field$Activities

EMC$Short$Range$Ice$Prediction

EMC$M

idNRange$ice$Prediction

EMC$LongNRange$Ice$Prediction

Evaluate$Analysis$and$Predictive$tools

Next$Generationa$Global$Prediction$System

NGGPS$N$Coupled$Arctic$System$M

odel

EMC$Ocean$Prediction

Improve$Observations X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Field$Programs X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Process$Representation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Assimilation X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Predictability$Sea$Ice X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

PolarNMidlatitude$Linkages X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Wx$Prediction$Verification X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Understand$Benefits X X X X X X X X X X X

Training X X X X X X X X X

EXAMPLES(of(NOAA(ASSETS(for(the(YEAR(OF(POLAR(PREDICTION((YOPP)

OCEAN$OBSERVATIONS SEA$ICE$MODELING/PREDICTION

SEA$ICE$

OBSERVATIONSCOORDINATION

 YOPP  AcCvity  and  ObjecCve  

Preliminary  Analysis  –  NOAA  Assets  for  YOPP  

Type  

Types  of  Ac'vi'es  

•  Coordina'ng  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  IASOA)  –  6  •  Atmospheric  Observing  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  GOES-­‐R  Risk  ReducCon)  -­‐  9  •  Technology  Development  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  UAS  -­‐  Dropsondes)  –  4  •  Ocean  Observing  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  Wind  Ocean  Data  Base)  –  7  •  Sea-­‐Ice  Observing  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  Sea-­‐Ice  Loss  Program)  –  5  •  Land  Observing  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  EMC  Land  PredicCon)  –  1  •  Sea  Ice  Modeling/Predic'on  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  CVP  Ice  AssimilaCon  and  

PredicCon  CFSv2)  –  13  •  Model  Output  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  Coupled  Ice-­‐Ocean  modeling  FVCOM)  –  3  •  Founda'onal  Research  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  ArcCc  Dipole  Anomaly  Research)  –  8  •  Opera'onal  Ac'vi'es  (e.g.  Evaluate  User  Requirements  for  Providing  

Decision  Support  -­‐  2  

5  PotenCal  for  diverse  NOAA  contribuCons  to  YOPP  

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•  Poten'al  contribu'ons  from  all  NOAA  research  and  service  lines  

Across  NOAA  Poten'al  Contribu'ons  

NWS  NOS  NMFS  NESDIS  OAR  

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For  more  informaCon  on  NOAA’s  ArcCc  planning,  see:    

h_p://www.arcCc.noaa.gov/NOAAarcCcacConplan2014.pdf        

NOAA  believes  it  has  much  it  can  offer  to  YOPP  -­‐  We  look  forward  to  working  with  you.  

Goal  1:    Forecast  Sea  Ice    Goal Statement – Accurate,

quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice are provided to support safe operations and ecosystem stewardship.

Five-year Strategy •  Improve daily to weekly sea ice

models and forecasts and new seasonal prediction services

•  "Multi-decadal sea ice projections •  "Retrospective and prospective

studies of the linkages between changes in Arctic sea ice and hemispheric weather and climate

NOAA’s  Arctic  Vision  and  Strategy    6   8  

Goal  3:    Improve  Weather  and    Water  Forecasts  and  Warnings    

NOAA’s  Arctic  Vision  and  Strateg  

y    

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Goal Statement - Advanced, accurate forecasts and warnings are provided to ensure society can prepare for and respond appropriately to weather-related routine and extreme events.

Five-year Strategy •  "Improve Arctic marine weather,

sea ice and storm forecast services.

•  "Protect northern and western Alaska coastal communities from storm surge, inundation, and erosion hazards.

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Goal  4:  Enhance  Interna'onal    and  Na'onal  Partnerships    

NOAA’s  Arctic  Vision  and  Strategy    9  

Goal Statement - National and international partners are engaged to promote cooperation and sharing of data, observational platforms, and intellectual resources to enable more rapid and comprehensive attainment of NOAA's Arctic goals.

Five-year Strategy •  "Encourage data sharing at multiple

levels among providers and users •  "Expand Arctic protection mechanisms •  "Provide leadership and resources to

support Arctic governance and science organizations

•  "Support development of effective SAON process

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Linking  Physical-­‐Biological  Sciences  and  Services  •  Distributed  Biological  Observatory  (DBO)  sites  (red  boxes)  are  regional  “hotspots”  located  along  a  la'tudinal  gradient  

•  DBO  sites  exhibit  high  produc'vity,  biodiversity,  and  overall  rates  of  change  

•  DBO  sites  serve  as  a  change  detec'on  array  for  the  iden'fica'on  and  consistent  monitoring  of  biophysical  responses  

•  Sites  sampled  by  na'onal  and  interna'onal  en''es  with  shared  data  plan  [modified by Karen Frey from Grebmeier et al. 2010, EOS 91]