noaa/nos/coast survey development laboratory coastal, regional & estuarine modeling: nos...

NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development Laboratory

Coastal, Regional & Estuarine Coastal, Regional & Estuarine Modeling:Modeling:

NOS Operational Forecast SystemsNOS Operational Forecast Systemsandand

NCEP-NOS Collaboration NCEP-NOS Collaboration..

Frank Aikman IIIFrank Aikman III

Coast Survey Development Coast Survey Development Laboratory National Ocean Laboratory National Ocean

ServiceService

NCEP Ocean Modeling WorkshopJanuary 14-15, 2008


OutlineOutline

The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems Systems

The Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkThe Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean

ModelingModeling


NOS Marine Modeling NOS Marine Modeling RequirementsRequirements

Support of safe & efficient navigation Support of safe & efficient navigation Water levels for under-keel clearanceWater levels for under-keel clearance Currents for right-of-way, maneuverabilityCurrents for right-of-way, maneuverability

Emergency response Emergency response HAZMATHAZMAT Search & RescueSearch & Rescue Homeland SecurityHomeland Security

For environmentally sound For environmentally sound management of the coastal zonemanagement of the coastal zone

Ecosystem applicationsEcosystem applications Marine geospatial applications Marine geospatial applications

Salinity

SST


Chesapeake Bay Operational Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS)Forecast System (CBOFS)

Operational since August 2001Operational since August 2001


RIVER INPUTS

Chesapeake Bay

NOS CBOFS Model

Weather Forecast Model

Hi-res Mesoscale Weather Forecast Model

NAM (WRF)

NOS East Coast Data Assimilation Model

Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National Ocean Service, NOAA

Inputs to Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast SystemCO-OPS

PORTS


Operational System ManagementOperational System Management Operational Coastal, Regional and Operational Coastal, Regional and

Estuarine Models Require Real-Time Estuarine Models Require Real-Time Observations and Forecasts of:Observations and Forecasts of: Atmospheric ForcingAtmospheric Forcing Open Ocean and Coastal Boundary Open Ocean and Coastal Boundary

ConditionsConditions Riverine Fresh Water InputsRiverine Fresh Water Inputs


Atmospheric ForcingAtmospheric Forcing

NowcastsNowcasts:: Local Analysis & Interpolation Local Analysis & Interpolation

Lake Erie Surface Wind AnalysisLake Erie Surface Wind Analysis

ForecastsForecasts:: NWS/NCEP operational modelsNWS/NCEP operational models NAM (WRFNAM (WRF)) Global Forecast System (GFS)Global Forecast System (GFS) RUCRUC NDFD nextNDFD next


Coastal Boundary Coastal Boundary ConditionsConditions

NWS OperationalNWS Operational Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS)Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS) Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)

NOS ExperimentalNOS Experimental East Coast Data Assimilation (ECDA)East Coast Data Assimilation (ECDA) NOS Gulf of Mexico (NGOM)NOS Gulf of Mexico (NGOM)


RTOFS (HYCOM Model) subtidal water level RMS errors for March 2006 at East (top) and Gulf Coast (bottom) gauge locations (dashed line); solid line is for the Extratropical Storm Surge (ETSS) model.


NCEP/CSDL Coupled NCEP/CSDL Coupled Storm Surge ProjectStorm Surge Project

MHW Shoreline

15 m Topographic 15 m Topographic ContourContour

Beaufort InletBeaufort Inlet

200K node high resolution 200K node high resolution unstructured triangular unstructured triangular

mesh with elevation mesh with elevation relative to NAVD 88relative to NAVD 88


Coastal Ocean Modeling Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkFramework

Consists of middleware to manage workflowConsists of middleware to manage workflow

OBJECTIVE:OBJECTIVE: More efficient R&D, O&MMore efficient R&D, O&M

PURPOSE:PURPOSE: Simplify Data Handling & MaintenanceSimplify Data Handling & Maintenance Provide a Single “Standard” System for all LocationsProvide a Single “Standard” System for all Locations Community: Share Skill Assessment Metrics and Community: Share Skill Assessment Metrics and

ToolsTools Provide a Single NOS Model Image to UsersProvide a Single NOS Model Image to Users ( (NetCDFNetCDF)) Various Models Are Tested & Evaluated (MEE)Various Models Are Tested & Evaluated (MEE)

ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM, ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM, QUODDY, ROMS, SELFEQUODDY, ROMS, SELFE

NOS is moving ahead with the Community ROMS for OFSNOS is moving ahead with the Community ROMS for OFS

Consistent with IOOS (DMAC); the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF); and COARDS/CF Conventions


REAL-TIME DATA

INGEST

QA/QC(CORMS)

24 x 7

NOSOPERATIONAL

MODELS

FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE(water level, water temp, currents, & salinity)

PRODUCTS(web pages and digital pt. & gridded data)

FOR USERS

Standardized for any model at any Standardized for any model at any locationlocation

QA/QC(CORMS)

24 x 7

NOAA/NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling NOAA/NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkFramework**

*Consistent with IOOS (DMAC); the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF); and COARDS/CF

Conventions

Individual Individual Model Model

SystemsSystems


Models, products, assessment, documentation will Models, products, assessment, documentation will be as uniform as possible:be as uniform as possible:

NOS Procedures for Developing and Implementing Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems, NOAA Tech Rep NOS CO-OPS 39, May 2003

NOS Standards for Evaluating Operational Nowcast and Forecast Hydrodynamic Model Systems, NOAA Tech Rep NOS CS 17, October 2003

Strategic and Implementation Plan for the National Operational Coastal Modeling Program FY2004-2010, NOAA/NOS OCS and CO-OPS, 2004

IMPLEMENTATION OF MODEL SKILL ASSESSMENT SOFTWARE FOR WATER LEVEL AND CURRENT IN TIDAL REGIONS, NOAA Technical Report NOS CS 24, March 2006

NOS Skill Assessment Criteria (Metrics)NOS Skill Assessment Criteria (Metrics) VariableVariable Water LevelWater Level CurrentsCurrents

CFCF 15 cm (>0.9)15 cm (>0.9) 26 cm/s 26 cm/s (>0.9)(>0.9)

POF/NOFPOF/NOF 30 cm (<0.01)30 cm (<0.01) 52 cm/s (<0.01)52 cm/s (<0.01)

Coastal Ocean Modeling Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkFramework

Standards & ProceduresStandards & Procedures


Issue - How does CSDL objectively evaluate existing and emerging modeling technologies to select appropriate community models to support requirements for models to address navigational, inundation, and ecological issues?

Criteria - The selection process must be based on quantitative measures of accuracy, adaptability, portability and sustained supportability.

Approach - Establish a series of Modeling Evaluation Environments (MEE)

● Model Configuration Data – Shorelines, Bathymetries● Model Execution Data – Model initialization, specification of environmental conditions● Model Skill Assessment Metrics and Observation

Initial Region● Delaware Bay

Models● Six community models ● 2-D and 3-D ● Structured (orthogonal grids) and unstructured (highly variable triangular elements)

Model Evaluation Model Evaluation EnvironmentEnvironment


Challenges for NOAA/NOS Challenges for NOAA/NOS Coastal Ocean ModelingCoastal Ocean Modeling

Transition to the NOAA High Performance Computing Environment (e.g. NCEP/CCS)

Transition from Individual Port Models to a Regional Modeling Approach

Coupled Systems Ecosystem Forecasting


NOS Transition of OFS to the NOAA High Performance Computing

Environment at NCEP OBJECTIVE:OBJECTIVE: More efficient R&D, O&MMore efficient R&D, O&M

PROCESS (FY08-09):PROCESS (FY08-09): Establish a version of Establish a version of **COMF at NCEPCOMF at NCEP Transition 5 Great Lake Models (GLOFS)Transition 5 Great Lake Models (GLOFS) Set up Ches. Bay (CBOFSv2) at NCEP Set up Ches. Bay (CBOFSv2) at NCEP

(ROMS) (ROMS) Test/evaluate Delaware and Tampa Bay Test/evaluate Delaware and Tampa Bay

OFS at NCEP (ROMS)OFS at NCEP (ROMS)*Consistent with IOOS (DMAC); the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF); and COARDS/CF Conventions


Individual Individual Port Port

Model Model SystemsSystems

Transition to a Regional Modeling Approach Regional Model SystemsRegional Model Systems

Gulf of Maine NY Bight

Ches/DelLouisiana


Coupled Systems ChallengesCoupled Systems Challenges Scales:Scales:

Space: Riverine-Estuarine-Coastal-Basin-GlobalSpace: Riverine-Estuarine-Coastal-Basin-GlobalTime: From Minutes to Synoptic to Seasonal to InterannualTime: From Minutes to Synoptic to Seasonal to Interannual

to Decadal to Long-Term Climateto Decadal to Long-Term Climate Types:Types:

Hydrodynamic-WaveHydrodynamic-WaveHydrodynamic-Sediment TransportHydrodynamic-Sediment Transport

Physical-Ecological:Physical-Ecological:Whole EcosystemWhole EcosystemBiogeochemicalBiogeochemical

Water qualityWater qualityNPZNPZHabitatHabitatPelagicPelagic

Fish recruitmentFish recruitmentSingle SpeciesSingle SpeciesMultiple SpeciesMultiple Species

Food Web/Energy BudgetFood Web/Energy Budget


Example Ecological Applications ofExample Ecological Applications ofHydrodynamic ModelsHydrodynamic Models

Noxious BiotaNoxious Biota Sea Nettle ProbabilitiesSea Nettle Probabilities

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs)Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Red Tide in Gulf of MexicoRed Tide in Gulf of Mexico

Hazardous Materials Dispersion (HAZMAT) Hazardous Materials Dispersion (HAZMAT) Oil/Chemical SpillsOil/Chemical Spills

Salinity

SST Likelihood of Chrysaora


Development of a West Florida Shelf 3D Prediction Development of a West Florida Shelf 3D Prediction SystemSystem

Coupling of Basin Model to Shelf/Estuary Model (for HABs)

Gulf of Mexico West Florida Shelf

Tampa Bay Charlotte Harbor

● GOM model nodes


In SummaryIn Summary

The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast The State of NOS’s Operational Forecast Systems Systems

The Coastal Ocean Modeling FrameworkThe Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean Challenges for NOAA Coastal Ocean

ModelingModeling

noaa/nos/coast survey development laboratory coastal, regional & estuarine modeling: nos...

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