north america - airinsight · 2020-05-15 · single-aisle aircraft ~27,800. new aircraft. 20-year...

Global Market Forecast 2011 - 2030

Presented byJohn Leahy

Chief Operating OfficerCustomers

North America

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

GMF 2011 Highlights

Market value of $3.5 trillion

Source: Airbus GMF

World fleet forecast 2010 2030 % change

RPK (trillion) 4.8 12.3 +157%

Passenger aircraft fleet 15,000 31,420 +109%

New passenger aircraft deliveries - 26,920 -

Dedicated freighters 1,600 3,020 +90%

New freighter aircraft deliveries - 830 -

Total new aircraft deliveries 27,750

GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change


20-year demand for almost 27,800 new passenger and freight aircraft


Source: Airbus GMFPassenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

1,680 very large aircraft

6,920 twin-aisle aircraft

19,170 single-aisle aircraft

~27,800 new aircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft


GDP and passenger traffic development

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-5%

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-0.05

-0.03

-0.01

0.01

0.03

0.05

0.07

0.09

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

World Traffic (ASKs)

Real & forecast GDP

October Passenger traffic up 6.3%

World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

A two-speed world

New York, November-December 2011Credit Suisse Aerospace and Defense Conference - Airbus Commercial update

Source: Global Insight, Airbus* 54 emerging economies

Real GDP growth (%)

Emerging economies*

Mature economies


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

A two-speed world


Source: Global Insight, Airbus* 54 emerging economies

History Forecast

Real GDP growth (%)

Emerging economies*

Mature economies


Over 25% of the total world RPKs are carried on US and Canadian airlines

2010 regional distribution of total RPK traffic per airline domicile

Middle East7%

Asia24%

Europe27%

North America27%

Latin America5%

Africa3%Pacific region

4%

CIS3%

Source: OAG, Airbus GMF


Main drivers for future growth• Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets

• Dynamic growth in emerging markets – population and economics

• Increasing urbanisation driving wealth and traffic growth

• Strong continued growth in North American and European markets

• Expanding global middle class, especially in Asia

• Continued growth of LCCs

• Market liberalisation – more to come


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Air travel remains a growth market

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.8%ICAO

total trafficAirbus

GMF 2011

Air traffichas doubled

every 15 years

Air trafficwill doublein the next15 years


Even with its size and maturity, North American inter-regional traffic has grown by 11% over the last 10 years

Source: OAG, comparing month of September

ASK growth: 2010 vs. 2000 (Inter-regional passenger traffic)

Middle East+229%

PRC+124%

Europe+34%

Latin America+29%

Africa+87%

Asia – Pacific region+34%

CIS+146%

India Sub-continent+141%

North America+11%


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2030

Source: Airbus GMF

2010 traffic 2010-2030 traffic 28%

27%

27%

7%

5%

3%

3%

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.8%

5.7%

4.0%

3.3%

7.4%

6.1%

4.9%

5.6%

% of 2010world RPK

20-year growth

33%

23%

20%

11%

6%

4%

3%

% of 2030world RPK

World traffic by airline domicile (RPK billions)


0 500 1000 1500

Domestic United StatesDomestic PRC

Intra Western EuropeUnited States - Western Europe

Domestic IndiaMiddle East - Western Europe

Asia - Western EuropeSouth America - Western Europe

Asia - PRCIntra Asia

PRC - Western EuropeCentral Europe - Western Europe

Indian Sub - Middle EastDomestic BrazilDomestic Asia

North Africa - Western EuropeMiddle East - United States

Asia - Middle EastPRC - United States

Japan - United States

Today and in 2030, Domestic US traffic is and will continue to be the largest single flow

20-year growth

2.4%7.2%3.2%3.9%9.8%5.7%4.3%5.1%6.8%6.4%6.2%5.7%6.2%6.6%5.6%4.6%7.1%5.5%6.6%3.8%

% of 2010 World RPK

17.8%6.0%

10.3%6.4%1.0%1.9%2.4%2.1%1.5%1.6%1.5%1.6%1.4%1.3%1.5%1.5%0.9%1.2%1.0%1.7%

RPKs (billions)% of 2030

World RPK11.1%9.3%7.5%5.4%2.6%2.3%2.2%2.2%2.2%2.1%2.0%1.9%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%1.4%

2030 top 20 largest traffic flows

2010 traffic 2011-2030 growth


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1970 1990 2010 2030

Traffic linking the emerging marketsto more than triple by 2030

Source: Airbus GMF

Traffic within or including emerging economies

Traffic within & between developed economies

76% 63% 43%30%24%

37%

70%

Market share on total traffic, emerging vs. mature traffic flows

RPK (trillion)

57%


GMF 2011 Highlights


Source: Airbus GMF


RPK (trillion) 4.8 12.3 +157%






GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change


GMF 2011 Highlights: North America

Market value of $648 billion

Source: Airbus GMF


RPK (trillion) 1.30 2.47 +92%






GMF 2011 key numbers and 20-year change for North America


Strongest growth potential connecting to developing regions

Source: Airbus GMF

RPK growth: annual average 2011-2030

Asia - Pacific5.3%

Europe4%

Latin America4.8%

Africa5.6%

CIS6.2%

Middle East7.1%

North America2011-2020 2021-2030 20-year

growth4.0% 3.5% 3.7%

World2011-2020 2021-2030 20-year

growth5.4% 4.3% 4.8%

2.5%


Pending demand for aircraft replacement in North America

Ongoing replacement wave of out of production aircraft

Source: Ascend, Airbus

Asia

EuropeNorth America

Latin America

Africa

Middle East

WorldModern

Out of Production

79%

70%

75%

72%

56%

67%

59%2010 Fleet

Today, ~ 4500 out of

production aircraft to be replaced by more eco-

efficient model


20-year demand for over 6,300 new passenger and freight aircraft in North America

Market value of $648 billion

Source: Airbus GMFPassenger aircraft (≥ 100seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

206 very large aircraft

1,140 twin-aisle aircraft

4,970 single-aisle aircraft

~6,300 new aircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft


Gulf CrisisOil CrisisAsianCrisis

WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS

FinancialCrisis

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

Source: ICAO, Airbus

* since 2000

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

+45%


90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Since 2000, air travel has grown 45%, the growth in fuel demand relatively flat….

Source: CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Inc.)Jet fuel demand data: CERA (millions of barrels of jet fuel)

Evolution of RPKs and jet fuel demand (Base 100 in 2000)

Traffic growth

Jet fuel demand

Traffic+45%

Fuel+3%


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

History Forecast

Average oil prices have rebounded to 2008 values

Fuel costs have quadrupled in a decade

Source: US EIA (Energy Information Administration), IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Oil price (Current US$)

Average annual WTI oil price (US$ per bbl)

Average Annual Price

Per Barrel>$120


Airbus has sold over 11,000 aircraft

11,502 aircraft sold to 334 customersOrder backlog of over 4,000 aircraft

To 24th November 2011Total sales include A330, A310 and A340 models

A350 Family

A380 Family

A330 Family

A320 Family



Airbus North America: strong market presence


17 customers, over 1,100 aircraft in operationDelivery backlog of over 600 aircraft

includes two private operators: and five Canadian Armed Forces A310-300s


2011 gross market share

To 24th November 2011

Boeing63228%Airbus

159372%

Units

Boeing98.337%

Airbus166.463%

Revenues

2225 industryorders

$264.7 bnindustry



2011 net market share


Boeing51626%Airbus

144274%

Units

Boeing$82.937%

Airbus$143.6

63%

Revenues

1958 industryorders

$226.5 bnindustry



Airbus is the market leader in gross orders


Largest aircraft manufacturer 10 out of last 11 years


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Airbus Boeing

Annual gross orders


Airbus is the market leader in deliveries


Largest aircraft manufacturer 9 out of last 11 years

2011 Figures are publicly stated targets

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Airbus Boeing

Annual deliveries


The market leading A380


An A380 takes off or lands every 10 minutes


243 firm orders63 deliveries18 customers


Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions


Billions of people will increasingly want to travel by air

ChinaIndia Middle EastAsiaAfrica CISLatin AmericaEastern EuropeE

xpan

ding

regi

ons

Western EuropeNorth AmericaJapan

1billionpeople2011

6billion

people2011

Yearly RPK growth2011 -2030


“Global middle class” is growing at a higher rate than the world’s population growth

The “Global middle class” represents 4.9B people by 2030

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

Millions of people

664 703 680

338 333 322

525

1,740

3,228

318

473

654

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2010 2020 2030

Other

Asia-Pacific

North America

Europe

% of world population

1,845

27%6,900

3,249

43%7,600

4,884

59%8,300 World population

X 2

X 6



2010 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*

39 cities in the world handle more than10,000 long haul passengers per day, …


Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic


2030 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers*

… and in 20 years, this will become nearly 90 cities


Source: IATA PaxIS, OAG. Airbus GMF* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic


0

150000

300000

450000

Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11

A380 world fleet operations

Over 16 million passengers have enjoyed the A380 experience

(as of 1st October 2011)Revenue flight hours



Qantas

Hong Kong

Los Angeles

Auckland

Johannesburg

Jeddah

Manchester

EmiratesSingapore Airlines

Air FranceLufthansa

The A380 network keeps growing


63 A380s delivered, 46 routes, 26 destinations7 operators

Additional airline-announced routes for 2011/2012 shown dottedTo 24th November 2011

MontrealParis

Sydney

Melbourne

Singapore

Washington DCNew York

Korean Air

Bangkok

SeoulSan Francisco

MiamiShanghai

Tokyo

China Southern

London

Kuala Lumpur

Dubai

BeijingTorontoZurichRome

FrankfurtMunich

Guangzhou

1418116851


Los Angeles

San Francisco

MontrealNew York

Washington DC

Miami

CDG-SFO

FRA-SFO

NRT-LAX

CDG-YUL

CDG-IAD

FRA-MIA

The A380 expands operations in North America

A380 – making headlines8 new routes to U.S. and Canada in 2011

ICN-LAX

ICN-JFK



Market validation

Data to 24th November 2011

All 3 alliances represented

243 firm orders from 18 Customers

17 A38010 A380

12 A380

19 A380

1 A380

12 A380

2 A380

6 A380

6 A380

5 A380

6 A38010 A380

90 A380

10 A380

20 A380

5 A380

6 A380

6 A380


http://www.kingdom.com.sa/index.asp

http://www.skymark.co.jp/


A330 – A350XWB: Complimentary twins


An A330 takes off or lands every 28 seconds of every day


A330: 1 184 firm orders360 order backlog

84 customers

A350XWB: 567 firm orders35 customers


Airbus wide-body aircraft Families are complementary

Complete fleet solutions,matching network requirements today and tomorrow

Seats

Range

A330-200

A350-800

A350-1000

A350-900

A330-300



A350 XWB programme planning

• Decision to privilege Maturity over Schedule has led to a new programme schedule

• FAL start: Q1 2012 with static specimen

• A350-900 First Flight: First half 2013

• A350-900 Entry into Service: First half 2014



Unrivalled A350-1000 performance


A350-1000 consistently more capable than 777-300ER

Typical 3-class configurations and flight profile

Payload (kg)

Range with maximum passengers and baggage

Range (nm)

600 nm more range

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000

A350-1000 current definition777-300ER


A350-1000: Unrivalled 25% lower fuel burn


The A350-1000 provides a step change in efficiency

6,500 nm mission, 350 passengers

+ 40T MTOW

777-300ER requires +40t higher MTOW(+20 t. Fuel burnt + 20 t. Structure)

A350-1000 is unbeatable

DubaiNew York


The best keeps getting better


An A320 takes off or lands every 2.5 seconds of every dayOver 100 million flight hours, 99.7% dispatch reliability


8 314 firm orders4 892 deliveries3 422 order backlog


Well-defined Airbus single-aisle product strategy


Building on proven values

2012

Efficiency

Today 2015

Sharklets

A320neo


A320 Family new engine option

A real step in efficiency:15% less fuel burn 15% less CO2 emissions15% more range

While maintaining the Family values:95% airframe commonalityMinimum change, maximum commonalityMaturity from EIS with low industrial/technical risk



A320neo worldwide success

A320 Family is the leader in all market segments

1268 firm orders + 182 firm commitmentsTo 24th November 2011

30

10036 80

6040

45

33

2220

30

30

150

20072

806

30

101450 orders and commitments

from 26 customers

130

8

78

30

50

5030



Original 737

Original 737 design with low bypass engine & minimum ground heightNow compromised by ground clearance

Fan diameter 54”

737 PW JT8D



Increasing fan diameter continues to drive efficiency

737MAX inherits 1960s legacy constraintswith A320neo increasing fuel burn advantage

737MAX Leap-1B

A320neoLeap-1A26 / PW1127G

Fan diameter ⇒ 68”= 24% more area

Fan diameter ⇒ 78 to 81”= 32% - 42% more area



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

By-pass ratio is growing

By-pass ratio is a key driver for fuel efficiency

By-pass ratio

737 ‘Classic’

4.9-5

A3205.4-6767

4.9-5.3 A3305.3 737NG

5.1-5.4

7879.1-9.2

A350 XWB11

CSeries12 A320neo

11-12

737 MAX7.5-8.5

Fuel efficiencyEmissionsNoise

Fuel efficiencyEmissionsNoise

777-300ER7.2 .



A320neo fuel burn savings rationale800nm sector

Thanks to Sharklets A320neo delivers full SFC benefit

Nominal performance Standard profile and weights*fan area LEAP-X1A versus CFM56-5BDrawings not made to scale

EngineSFC -15.3 %

+1%

Reference A320 CFM

Fuel Burnsavings %

Improved core

~7%

+32% more fan area*

~7%

Powerplant integration ~1%Sharklets -2.4%

Example of A320neo LEAP-X versus A320 CFM56

- Extra MWE < 2t - Drag+2.7%

-15.0% A320neo versus A320



737max fuel burn savings rationale800nm sector

737 constrains limit the benefits from new engine

*with winglets and 7BE improvement** fan area LEAP-1B versus CFM56-7BDrawings not made to scale

+1%Fuel Burnsavings %

Example of 737max vs 737NG*

Improved core

~6%

Reference 737NG*

+24% more fan area**

~3.5%

Powerplant integration ~0.5%

EngineSFC -10 %

-Extra MWE >2t -Drag~2.5%

aero improvements -0.5%

-8% 737MAX versus 737NG*



737-900ER A321737-800W A320737-700W A319

51

Today’s A320 Family

*2011 -7BE improvement and aero clean up credited to Boeing800 nm sector

Fuel burn per seat

124 seats 124 seats 157 seats 150 seats 173 seats 185 seats



737-900ER A321737-800W A320737-700W A319

52

A320 Family sharklets will improve efficiency


Fuel burn per seat

Sharklet124 seats 124 seats





737-900ER A321neo737-700W A319neo 737-800W A320neo

53

A320neo: Double digit reduction

A real step change in efficiency


Fuel burn per seat




737-9 MAX A321neo737-7 MAX A319neo 737-8 MAX A320neo

54

A320neo: The optimised aircraft

A320neo Family increases the competitive advantage

800 nm sector

Fuel burn per seat




A320/A320neo market potentiel


Open demand for 14,800 aircraft by 2030

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Single-aisle aircraft in-service

Currently in-service

Backlog

Open Demand

14,800aircraft

4,400aircraft


Fuel efficient Airbus aircraft Families

Fuel efficient Airbus products will sustain future growth, curb fuel demand


north america - airinsight · 2020-05-15 · single-aisle aircraft ~27,800. new aircraft. 20-year...

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