northeast river forecast center doc-noaa-nws snec-swcs edward j capone service coordination...
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Northeast River Forecast CenterDOC-NOAA-NWS
SNEC-SWCS
Edward J CaponeService Coordination Hydrologist
Northeast River Forecast Centerweather.gov/nerfc
NWS River Forecast Centers
• Mission: Protection of Life and Property– Flood Guidance– Water Supply
• 13 River Forecast Centers across USA
• 122 Weather Forecast Offices
National Weather Service Hydrologic Services
Built upon 13 River Forecast Centers Calibrate and implement a variety of hydrologic and
hydraulic models and provide temperature and precipitation forecasts for the production of river flow and stage forecasts, inflow hydrograph forecasts, flash flood guidance, extended stream flow prediction, water resources information
Primary customers include the WFOs, Reservoir Operators, USACE Reservoir Control, USGS, Hydropower, FEMA, NFMS, NOS
Staffs mix of meteorologists, hydrologists, civil and environmental engineers/scientists
18 hr a day operations – 24 hrs during floods.
Weather Forecast Office New York/New England Service Areas
WFO Caribou, ME Northeast Maine counties
WFO Gray, ME Southwest Maine and most of
New Hampshire Less Cheshire and Hillsboro
WFO Burlington, VT Northern 2/3rds of VT
WFO Albany, NY Srn 1/3 of VT, Berkshire, MA,
Litchfield, CT WFO Taunton, MA
Rest of MA, all of RI, and the northern 2/3rds of CT
WFO Upton, NY All coastal CT Counties
WFO Binghamton, NY Finger Lakes region
WFO Buffalo, NY Buffalo Creeks, Genesee and
Black
Weather Forecast Office Responsibilities
Watch/Warning responsibilities Coordinate final adjustments to
RFC forecast guidance for their warning issuances
Issue and coordinate all watches/warnings with local interests
Flood/Flash Flood Drought/Water Resource Hydrologic Outlooks
Define forecast service requirements
Establish flood stages and impact statements for forecast points
Work with RFC on developing modeling requirements
EMA community collaborates directly Weather Forecast Office during events
Northeast RFC
• Nearly 200 forecast location– Time to Peak: 6-48 hours– Elevation from 0 – 6600 ft
• River Basins– Connecticut– Hudson– Merrimack– Kennebec– St John
• Staff of 14• Located in Taunton,
Massachusetts
Forecasts on Watersheds in Connecticut
Connecticut Farmington Housatonic Yantic Quinebaug Willimantic Thames
River Forecast Center Responsibilities
Calibrate and implement variety of hydrologic and hydraulic models and produce temperature and precipitation forecasts to provide:
River flow and stage forecasts at NEARLY 200 locations
Guidance on the rainfall needed to produce Flash Flooding
Ensemble streamflow predictions
Ice Jam and Dam Break support
Water Supply forecasts Reservoir Inflow Forecasts
Moderate flooding - Connecticut River at
Portland, CT.
Critical Partners DOI - USGS Water Science
Centers Enhancing the public safety by
providing data for forecasting and managing floods
Characterizing current water-quality conditions Determining input rates of various pollutants into lakes,
reservoirs, or estuaries Computing the loads of sediment and chemical constituents Understanding the biological effects of contamination Delineating and managing flood plains Operating and designing multipurpose reservoirs Setting permit requirements for discharge of treated
wastewater Designing highway bridges and culverts Setting minimum flow requirements for meeting aquatic life
goals Monitoring compliance with minimum flow requirements Developing or operating recreation facilities Scheduling power production Designing, operating, and maintaining navigation facilities Allocating water for municipal, industrial, and irrigation uses Administering compacts or resolving conflicts on interstate
rivers Defining and apportioning the water resources at our
international borders Evaluating surface- and ground-water interaction Undertaking scientific studies of long-term changes in the
hydrologic cycle
Critical PartnersUS Army Corps of Engineers New England District
– Reservoir Control
Buffalo, NY District – Mount Morris Dam
CWMS – Corps Water Management System
Prerequisites for a Forecast
Established gage location
Need historical record Both gage data And temp/precip
Define basin and appropriate segments
Calibrate model Develop forecast
scheme Current limitation:
=/> 100 sqmi =/> 6 hr response time
Connecticut River Watershed Configuration
Soil Moisture Modeling and Calibration
Sacramento Soil Moisture Model Input: Rain/Melt from snow model Models motion of water through
upper and lower soil layers Outflow time series consists of
multiple runoff and base flow sources
HEC-RAS for hydraulic reaches such as Tidal Hudson/Connecticut
Snow17 Snowmelt model
Inventory and Analysis of Historical Data – 1948 to 2010 daily forcings
Time Series Based on Historical Data
Model Selection Calibration of Model Parameters SACSMA, SNOW17, Reservoir
Ops Hydraulic Model calibration done
separately – former 1D FLDWAV and now 1D HEC-RAS
Process Starts with Data Q/C
COOP Data, ASOS, Mesonets, CoCoRAHS Radar estimates are combined with observations to produce
an hourly mosaic grid and basin average estimate of rainfall Mean (6 hr) Areal Precip & Temp basin averages - past 24 hrs
Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator
Hourly Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimation(Radar / Gage Mosaic)
Hourly Multi-Sensor Grid Production(1 hour grid analysis)
Precipitation/Temperature Forecasting
Hydro-met Analysis Support forecaster
Rainfall forecasts out 48-72 hours Longer for
contingency guidance Temperature
forecasts during the cool-season Lower and Upper
zones (upper >2kft) Issued 3 times a day
Community Hydrologic Prediction System(CHPS)
Modular software to enhance collaboration and accelerate R2O
Extension of the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) architecture: Incorporates NWS models with models from FEWS, U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers (ACE), and academia
To help us meet the demands of future water resource services
FEWS
NWS Model
sUSAC
E Model
sOther Model
s
FEWS Model
s
Community Hydrologic Prediction System
The End ResultOur Graphical and Text Forecasts
Exceedance Display Short-Range Probabilistic River Forecasts
Early March 2011 Floods Hurricane Irene’s Approach
River, Rainfall, Temperature and Snowmelt Displays
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Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS)
Probabilistic information to support risk-based decisions
• Seamless short- to long-term HEFS within CHPS
Implementation Status: Demonstrating components of short-
term capability at 6 RFCs Will deploy additional prototypes
during the next 2 years
Initial version of full capability in 2013
• Incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic uncertainties
Modeling Tides and Storm Surge
Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Portland, CT.
Moderate flooding -Connecticut River at Chester, CT.
Future Services: National Inundation Mapping
Program
The development of static inundation mapping NWS helps guide you through the process
but it requires dedicated funding on the state/local community’s part
Only available where NWS produces stage forecasts IE: the larger rivers (Connecticut, Blackstone,
Pawtuxet)
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Northeast River Forecast CenterDOC-NOAA-NWS
Edward J CaponeService Coordination Hydrologist
Northeast River Forecast Centerweather.gov/nerfc