northwest power and conservation council proposed revisions to council’s fuel price forecasts...
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Northwest Power and Conservation Council 5 th Plan Natural Gas and Proposed RevisionTRANSCRIPT
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Proposed Revisions to Council’s Fuel Price Forecasts
Natural Gas Advisory CommitteeJune 27, 2007
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
5th Plan Natural Gas PriceCompared to More Recent
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AEO07LMLMMHHGIIEVAEEADBSEERAltos
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
5th Plan Natural Gasand Proposed Revision
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23
45
67
89
10
2006
$/M
MBt
u
LowMedloMediumMedhiHighLowMedloMediumMedhiHigh
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revised Natural Gas Price Forecast Compared to Others
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AEO07GIIEVAEEADBSEERAltosLMLMMHH
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Natural Gas Price(2006$/MMBtu)
Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High2005 7.392010 3.50 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.002015 3.40 4.25 5.00 6.00 8.002020 3.75 4.50 5.30 6.25 8.252025 4.00 5.00 5.60 6.50 8.502030 4.00 5.25 6.00 7.25 9.00
Growth Rates 2005 - 15 -7.47% -5.38% -3.83% -2.06% 0.80% 2005 - 30 -2.42% -1.36% -0.83% -0.08% 0.79%
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Western Natural Gas Prices
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
2000
$ Pe
r MM
Btu
Henry HubAECOSumasRockiesPermianSan Juan
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Natural Gas Prices to PNW
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2000
$ P
er M
MB
tu
US WellheadAECOSumasPNW-WestPNW-East
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Basis DifferentialsMedium 2008 Basis Delivery 2008
Differential Cost Price
Wellhead $7.00$0.56
Henry Hub $7.56
Sumas ($0.84) $6.72West-side PNW $0.81 $7.53
AECO ($0.94) $6.62East-side PNW $0.73 $7.35Northern CA $0.83 $7.45
San Juan ($1.17) $6.39CO ($0.45) $5.94NM $0.49 $6.88
Rockies ($1.21) $6.35UT $0.48 $6.83WY $0.55 $6.90MT $0.45 $6.80NV $0.38 $6.73ID $0.48 $6.83
Permian ($0.33) $7.23Southern CA $0.20 $7.43AZ $0.05 $7.28
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
West-Side Delivery CostSumas Price 6.72
Firm Capacity .64
Commodity .05
In-Kind Fuel 1.74%.12
Firm Supply Premium
0
Delivered Price 7.53
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
East-Side Delivery CostAECO Price 6.62
Firm Capacity .52
Commodity .01
In-Kind Fuel 2.8%.19
Firm Supply Premium
0
Delivered Price 7.34
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Other Assumptions
• LCD delivery cost for large customer?• Capacity release rates?• What share of firm pipeline capacity cost
might be recovered from release market?• Incremental long-term capacity cost?• Any firm gas supply premium? Share of
firm supply for electricity generator?
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
5th Plan Oil Price RangeCompared to Recent Forecasts
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2006
$/Bb
l
LowMedloMediumMedhiHighAEO07GIIEVAEEADBSEERIEASTEO
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Proposed Revisionof Oil Price Forecast
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06$/
Barr
el
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Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revised Oil Price ForecastCompared to Other Recent Forecasts
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2006
$/Bb
l
LowMedloMediumMedhiHighAEO07GIIEVAEEADBSEERIEA
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
World Oil Price(2006$/Barrel)
Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High2005 50.292010 35.00 42.00 50.00 58.00 65.002015 32.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 60.002020 32.00 39.00 45.00 50.00 58.002025 30.00 38.00 46.00 52.00 58.002030 30.00 39.30 47.00 55.00 62.00
Growth Rates 2005 - 15 -4.42% -2.26% -1.11% -0.06% 1.78% 2005 - 30 -2.05% -0.98% -0.27% 0.36% 0.84%
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Revised Coal Price Forecast Compared to AEO 2007
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MBt
u W
Y/M
T
LowMLMMHHighAEO07
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Coal Price Forecast Rangeand Assumed Growth Rates
Low Medium Low Medium Medium High High2006 0.472010 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.502015 0.45 0.47 0.49 0.51 0.532020 0.44 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.572025 0.43 0.47 0.52 0.56 0.612030 0.42 0.47 0.53 0.58 0.66
Growth Rates 2006 - 15 -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 0.90% 1.40% 2006 - 30 -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 0.90% 1.40%
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Comparative Fuel PricesIndustrial Sector
Fuel Competition
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2000
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2006
$/M
MBt
u
Residual OilNatural GasCoalDistillate
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Historical Comparative PricesEnergy Price Comparisons
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1978
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$/M
MB
tu)
Low ResidHigh ResidDistNG
Northwest Power and ConservationCouncil
Ratio of Real Crude Price Per Barrel to Wellhead NG Price Per MMBtu
Ratio of Crude Oil to Natural Gas
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0
Ratio