norway frontiers 20160624 v3

05/02/2023 1

Jim Spohrer (IBM)Bergen, Norway – Frontiers in Service, Conference

Friday June 24,, 2016http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/norway-frontiers-20160624-v3

Industry 4.0: A Digital Service Transformation

05/02/2023 2

What is Industry 4.0?

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 3

History of the idea: Mirror Worlds

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 4© IBM UPWard 2016

Why is this relevant?

05/02/2023 5

I am still very skeptical… but tell me more….

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 6© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 7

Managers: Courage Required….

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 8

Talent required, but…

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 9

Industry 4.0

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 10

CyberPhysical Systems?

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 11

Industry 4.0

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 12© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 13© IBM UPWard 2016

Yesterday: Servitization

• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

Tomorrow: Servitization• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system

– Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything– Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance

across their life-cycles– Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance,

efficiency, maintenance, etc.– Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with

financing/Internet of Service– Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability– Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability

• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups

Vision: MMaaRRSS

• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System– “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for

customer Y.”– Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows – Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)

• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)

Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap

and co-create wiser service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens

with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy

05/02/2023 18

1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

05/02/2023© IBM 2015, IBM Upward University

Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

20

05/02/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

21

I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?


22

Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972

05/02/2023 23© IBM UPWard 2016

Fast Forward 2016:Consider this…

05/02/2023 24

Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 25

Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 26

IBM Image Tagging

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 27

IBM Cloud Bluemix:Watson APIs are growing…

© IBM UPWard 2016

So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

05/02/2023 28

Culture change

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 29

But this stuff is still really hard…

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 30

$5M Prize: for best AI to help uson societal grand challenge problems

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 31

Societal Grand Challenges

© IBM UPWard 2016

Solving these would mean we are smarter, but would they mean we are wiser?

05/02/2023 32

Two assertions

• Machines seem to be getting smarter fast.

– Agree/disagree?

• People do not seem to be getting wiser fast.

– Agree/disagree?

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 33

1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach


34

What exists in 2016?

360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

05/02/2023 35

Reality 2.0 Service Platform:polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2)

do not interrupt people (P1,P2)

© IBM UPWard 2016

Service Platform

CM2

P2

CM1

P1

100x

100x 100x

05/02/2023 36

By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators

Empathy & Teamwork

sectorregion/culture

discipline Dept

h

Breadth

STEM

Liberal Arts

05/02/2023 37© IBM UPWard 2016

05/02/2023 38© IBM UPWard 2016

What might Reality 2.0 look like?


39


40

05/02/2023 41

How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching?

What might it look like?

42

Computing: Then, Now, Projected

05/02/2023

2035

2055


43

Wise Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions

Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value

Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions


44

Cognitive Mediatorsfor all people in all roles


45

Occupations = Many Tasks


46

Watson Discovery Advisor

Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014.URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/


47

User Models

05/02/2023 48

Courses• 2015

– “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2025– “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035– “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055– “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”– Most people have 100 digital workers.

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government


50

In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities


53

Explain external phenomena


54

Explain internal phenomena


55

Explainvalue co-creationphenomena


56

Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems


57

Brief History of AI

• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix


58

Cognitive Assistants for all occupations are beginning to appear


59

Sciences provide…• Frameworks for people to ask and answer

questions systematically• Explanations with instructions on “how to re-do”

Kline: Conceptual Foundation of Multidisciplinary Thinking -“To our children and children’s children, to whom we elders owe an explanation of the worldthat is understandable, realistic, forward-looking, and whole.”

Proenneke:Alone in the Wilderness -To do a thorough testing, should each generationbe required to rapidly rebuildfrom scratch? A re-makers movement?


60

The Maker Movement & Open Source Ecology


61

Dedication: Doug EngelbartFather of the mouse and

augmentation theory


62

Future of Skills


63