OBJECTIVES

Strategy for Monitoring Post-fire Rehabilitation Treatments

Troy Wirth and David PykeTroy Wirth and David PykeUSGS – Biological Resources DivisionUSGS – Biological Resources DivisionForest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science CenterForest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science CenterCorvallis, OregonCorvallis, Oregon

U.S. Department of InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Supported by USGS - BLM Interagency Agreement #HAI040045

Monitoring ApproachMonitoring Approach ObjectivesObjectives StratificationStratification Control PlotsControl Plots Random SamplingRandom Sampling Data QualityData Quality Statistical AnalysisStatistical Analysis Repeatable, objective field methods Repeatable, objective field methods

using Rangeland Monitoring Databaseusing Rangeland Monitoring Database

ObjectivesObjectives Objectives are statements of conditions that Objectives are statements of conditions that

result in a successful treatmentresult in a successful treatment Objectives should be clearly defined prior to Objectives should be clearly defined prior to

ESR treatment implementationESR treatment implementation QuantitativeQuantitative MeasurableMeasurable Attain, increase, decrease a level of a certain Attain, increase, decrease a level of a certain

parameterparameter Compare objective to monitoring data to make a Compare objective to monitoring data to make a

determination of successdetermination of success

ObjectivesObjectives Two types of Objectives: Management and Two types of Objectives: Management and

SamplingSampling Management ObjectivesManagement Objectives - set specific - set specific

goals for a parameter or ecological goals for a parameter or ecological conditioncondition

Sampling ObjectivesSampling Objectives - set specific goals - set specific goals for the measurement of the parameter or for the measurement of the parameter or ecological conditionecological condition

Management ObjectivesManagement Objectives

Components of a management objective Components of a management objective (From Elzinga et al. 1998)(From Elzinga et al. 1998)

Action – Action – attain, decrease, increaseattain, decrease, increase Attribute – Attribute – cover, density, etc.cover, density, etc. Species or Habitat Indicator – Species or Habitat Indicator – ARTR2 or ARTR2 or

shrub heightshrub height Location – Location – where the objective applieswhere the objective applies Status – Status – numerical goalnumerical goal Time Frame – Time Frame – when the objective will be metwhen the objective will be met

Example Management ObjectiveExample Management Objective Management Objective:Management Objective: Attain Attain (action)(action) a density a density

(attribute)(attribute) of perennial native seeded grasses of perennial native seeded grasses (species or indicator)(species or indicator) in monitoring unit 1 in monitoring unit 1 (location)(location) of at least 2.5 plants/m of at least 2.5 plants/m22 (status(status) by the ) by the end of the third growing season end of the third growing season (time frame)(time frame) following treatment.following treatment.

Management Objective:Management Objective: Attain 35% cover of Attain 35% cover of native perennial grasses in monitoring unit 2 by native perennial grasses in monitoring unit 2 by the end of the third growing season.the end of the third growing season.

Sampling ObjectivesSampling Objectives Companion sampling objectives are Companion sampling objectives are

written for each management objectivewritten for each management objective Two types: Target and change objectives Two types: Target and change objectives

depending on the “action” of the depending on the “action” of the management objective management objective Target: set quantitative objectiveTarget: set quantitative objective Change: change from one time period to Change: change from one time period to

another or difference rather than a quantified another or difference rather than a quantified target, expressed as an absolute value or a target, expressed as an absolute value or a percentage of a measured value (control)percentage of a measured value (control)

Sampling ObjectivesSampling Objectives Target objectives Target objectives

consist of:consist of: Confidence Level: how Confidence Level: how

confident are you that confident are you that the true mean lies within the true mean lies within the confidence intervalthe confidence interval

Confidence Interval: Confidence Interval: interval around the interval around the estimated mean where estimated mean where you believe the true you believe the true mean liesmean lies

Precision = ½ Precision = ½ confidence interval confidence interval widthwidth

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Precision(1/2 CI)

Example Target Sampling Example Target Sampling ObjectivesObjectives

Obtain estimates of mean number of Obtain estimates of mean number of plants/mplants/m22 with 90% confidence with 90% confidence (confidence level)(confidence level) that are within ± 20% that are within ± 20% (confidence interval width or precision)(confidence interval width or precision) of of the estimated density (the estimated density (αα = 0.1, d = 0.2) = 0.1, d = 0.2)

Estimate the percent cover of bluebunch Estimate the percent cover of bluebunch wheatgrass with 95% confidence that is wheatgrass with 95% confidence that is within ± 25% of the estimated cover (within ± 25% of the estimated cover (αα = = 0.05, d = 0.25)0.05, d = 0.25)

Using Target Sampling Using Target Sampling ObjectivesObjectives

Comparison to a Quantitative Objective

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Sampling Change ObjectivesSampling Change Objectives

Change objectives consist of:Change objectives consist of: Acceptable Type I and Type II errorAcceptable Type I and Type II error

Type I (false-change error)Type I (false-change error) Type II (missed-change error)Type II (missed-change error)

Minimum detectable changeMinimum detectable change The change that can be detected by the monitoring The change that can be detected by the monitoring

effort. Depends on variability in the monitoring effort. Depends on variability in the monitoring data.data.

Example Sampling Change Example Sampling Change ObjectiveObjective

Change Sampling Objective:Change Sampling Objective: Detect a Detect a change (positive or negative) of 20% change (positive or negative) of 20% (MDC)(MDC) in the mean number of plants/m in the mean number of plants/m2 2

with 90% confidence with 90% confidence (Type I)(Type I). We are . We are also willing to take a 20% chance also willing to take a 20% chance (Type II)(Type II) that we will conclude there is no change that we will conclude there is no change when there was a change. when there was a change.

Using Change ObjectivesUsing Change ObjectivesConfidence Interval of the Difference

Between Two Populations

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